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2020 United States presidential election in Virginia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Virginia
← 2016November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03)2024 →
Turnout75.07% (Increase5.8pp)
 
NomineeJoe BidenDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateDelawareFlorida
Running mateKamala HarrisMike Pence
Electoral vote130
Popular vote2,413,5681,962,430
Percentage54.11%44.00%
County and independent city results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No data

  
  

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Virginia
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Commonwealth's Attorney

The2020 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[1]Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California SenatorKamala Harris. Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Biden would win, or a likely blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Virginia with 54.11% of the vote, and by a margin of 10.1%, the best performance for a Democratic presidential candidate sinceFranklin D. Roosevelt in1944.[3] Trump became the first Republican incumbent to consecutively lose Virginia sinceWilliam Howard Taft and Biden became the first Democratic nominee to winChesterfield County andLynchburg City since1948,Virginia Beach City since1964,James City County since1968, andStafford County since1976.[4] He also flippedChesapeake City back to the Democratic Party. Trump flipped no counties or independent cities in the state. Nevertheless, Biden became the first Democrat since1960 to win withoutWestmoreland County, a notable bellwether. He was the first Democrat to ever win without Caroline County, Nelson County, or Covington.[citation needed]

The rapid growth ofNorthern Virginia as well as sliding suburban support for Republicans allowed Biden to win the once-keybattleground state without actively campaigning in it. Biden wonHenrico County,Loudoun County,Prince William County, andFairfax County with 63.7%, 61.5%, 63.6%, and 69.9%, respectively; all four were former suburban bastions of the Republican Party in Virginia, the first outsideRichmond and the others in Northern Virginia. All four had voted Republican in every election from 1968 through 2000. InArlington County, a closer DC-area suburban county that had turned Democratic several decades earlier, Biden won with 80.6% of the vote, becoming the first nominee of either party in more than a century to do so. Biden's combined margin in Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, and Arlington Counties was greater than his statewide margin of victory. Crucially for his performance in Northern Virginia, Biden carriedgovernment workers by 18%.[5]

Primary elections

[edit]

Canceled Republican primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

TheVirginia Republican Party is one of several state GOP parties that have officially canceled their respective primaries and caucuses.[6] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries whenGeorge H. W. Bush andGeorge W. Bush sought a second term in1992 and2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries whenBill Clinton andBarack Obama were seeking reelection in1996 and2012, respectively.[7][8] At the Virginia State Republican Convention, originally scheduled for May 2020 but postponed to August 15, 2020, the state party will formally bind all 48 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[6][9][10]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Virginia Democratic primary
Sanders at a rally in Richmond on February 27, 2020

The Virginia Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020, as part of the "Super Tuesday" suite of elections.

Joe Biden,Elizabeth Warren, andBernie Sanders were among the major declared candidates.[11]

This section is an excerpt from2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary § VAresults.[edit]
county
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
congressional district
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
2020 Virginia Democratic presidential primary[12][a]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[14]
Joe Biden705,50153.3067
Bernie Sanders306,38823.1531
Elizabeth Warren142,54610.771
Michael Bloomberg128,0309.67
Tulsi Gabbard11,2880.85
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[b]11,1990.85
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[b]8,4140.64
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)[c]3,3610.25
Cory Booker(withdrawn)1,9100.14
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[b]1,4720.11
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)[c]1,4370.11
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)9020.07
Julian Castro(withdrawn)6910.05
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)[c]3700.03
Write-in votes1840.01
Total1,323,693100%99

Green primary

[edit]

TheGreen Party of Virginia conducted an onlineranked choice primary from April 20 to April 26, 2020.[15]

2020 Green Party of Virginia primary[15]
CandidateRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Howie Hawkins4262.7%4262.7%4364.2%4465.7%
Dario Hunter1725.4%1826.9%2131.3%2334.3%
Kent Mesplay34.5%34.5%34.5%Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry23.0%23.0%Eliminated
Jill Stein (write-in)23.0%Eliminated
Jesse Ventura (write-in)11.5%Eliminated
Total votes67100.0%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[16]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
Inside Elections[17]Solid DNovember 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
Politico[19]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
RCP[20]Lean DNovember 3, 2020
Niskanen[21]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
CNN[22]Solid DNovember 3, 2020
The Economist[23]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
CBS News[24]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
270towin[25]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
ABC News[26]Solid DNovember 3, 2020
NPR[27]Likely DSeptember 16, 2020
NBC News[28]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
538[29]Solid DNovember 3, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other/
Undecided
[d]		Margin
270 to Win[30]October 15–31, 2020November 3, 202052.8%41.0%6.2%Biden +11.8
FiveThirtyEight[31]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202053.7%41.9%4.4%Biden +11.8
Average53.1%41.5%5.3%Biden +11.8

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		Howie
Hawkins
Green		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20204,550 (LV)± 2%41%[f]57%--––
Swayable[33]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020467 (LV)± 6.4%39%59%2%1%––
Data for Progress[34]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020690 (LV)± 3.7%43%54%1%0%1%[g]–
Roanoke College[35]Oct 23–29, 2020802 (LV)± 3.5%42%53%2%-1%2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32]Oct 1–28, 20207,663 (LV)–43%55%--––
Christopher Newport University[36]Oct 15–27, 2020908 (LV)± 3.4%41%53%--2%[h]4%
Swayable[37]Oct 23–26, 2020351 (LV)± 5.2%44%55%1%-––
Virginia Commonwealth University[38]Oct 13–22, 2020709 (LV)± 4.93%39%51%--2%[i]8%[j]
Schar School/Washington Post[39]Oct 13–19, 2020908 (LV)± 4%41%52%3%-0%[k]4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[40]Oct 11–14, 20201,231 (LV)± 3.1%42%55%--3%[l]1%
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College[41]Sep 30 – Oct 12, 2020602 (LV)–39%[m]54%4%--4%
Survey Monkey/Tableau[42]Sep 15 – Oct 12, 20204,248 (LV)–43%55%--–2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[43][A]Oct 9–11, 2020607 (LV)–42%51%--––
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32]Sep 1–30, 20202,882 (LV)–42%56%--–2%
Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[44][1][A]Sep 22–25, 2020600 (LV)–41%52%--––
Christopher Newport University[45]Sep 9–21, 2020796 (LV)± 3.9%43%48%--2%[n]7%
Virginia Commonwealth University[46]Aug 28 – Sep 7, 2020693 (LV)± 6.22%39%52%--1%[o]8%[j]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32]Aug 1–31, 20202,626 (LV)–41%57%--–2%
Roanoke College[47]Aug 9–22, 2020566 (LV)± 4.1%39%53%--3%[p]5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32]Jul 1–31, 20203,178 (LV)–43%55%--–2%
Morning Consult[48]Jul 17–26, 20201,156 (LV)± 2.9%41%52%--––
Virginia Commonwealth University[49]Jul 11–19, 2020725 (LV)± 6.2%39%50%--1%10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[32]Jun 8–30, 20201,619 (LV)–42%57%--–1%
Morning Consult[48]May 17–26, 20201,148 (LV)–42%[q]52%--––
Roanoke College[50]May 3–16, 2020563 (LV)± 4.1%39%51%--––
Virginia Commonwealth University[51]Mar 25 – Apr 8, 2020812 (A)± 4.5%41%51%--–8%
Hampton University[52]Feb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%38%45%--––
Roanoke College[53]Feb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%40%48%--––
Mason-Dixon[54]Dec 12–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%45%49%--–6%
Virginia Commonwealth University[55]Dec 2–13, 2019728 (LV)± 5.1%46%49%--–5%[j]
Virginia Commonwealth University[56]Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019645 (LV)± 5.0%44%52%--–4%[j]
University of Mary Washington/Research America[57]Sep 3–15, 20191,009 (A)± 3.1%37%55%--1%4%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Hampton University[52]Feb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%38%43%
Roanoke College[53]Feb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%40%46%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Pete
Buttigieg (D)		Undecided
Hampton University[52]Feb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%38%41%–
Roanoke College[53]Feb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%40%47%–
Mason-Dixon[54]Dec 12–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%47%45%8%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Kamala
Harris (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Mary Washington[58]Sep 3–15, 20191,009 (A)± 3.1%38%50%2%5%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Hampton University[52]Feb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%37%39%
Roanoke College[53]Feb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%39%46%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		OtherUndecided
Hampton University[52]Feb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%39%44%––
Roanoke College[53]Feb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%40%49%––
Mason-Dixon[54]Dec 12–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%51%45%–4%
Virginia Commonwealth University[55]Dec 2–13, 2019728 (LV)± 5.1%48%45%–7%[j]
Virginia Commonwealth University[56]Sep 2 – Oct 4, 2019645 (LV)± 5.0%47%48%–5%[j]
University of Mary Washington/Research America[57]Sep 3–15, 20191,009 (A)± 3.1%38%53%2%4%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
Hampton University[52]Feb 25–28, 2020768 (RV)± 3.8%40%42%––
Roanoke College[53]Feb 9–18, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%41%48%––
Mason-Dixon[54]Dec 12–16, 2019625 (RV)± 4.0%48%44%–8%
Virginia Commonwealth University[55]Dec 2–13, 2019728 (LV)± 5.1%47%47%–6%[j]
Virginia Commonwealth University[56]Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019645 (LV)± 5.0%46%50%–4%[j]
University of Mary Washington[58]Sep 3–15, 20191,009 (A)± 3.1%38%53%1%5%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
Wason Center, Christopher Newport University[59]Sep 4–30, 2019726 (RV)± 4.1%36%51%6%[r]6%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Opponent		OtherUndecided
Wason Center, Christopher Newport University[60]Feb 3–23, 2020866 (RV)± 3.5%38%59%[s]0%[t]2%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[e]		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
Virginia Commonwealth University[56]Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019645 (LV)± 5.0%48%49%–3%[j]
Ipsos/University of Virginia[61]Feb 15–19, 2019636 (A)± 4.0%25%45%3%20%

Results

[edit]
Line for early voting inHerndon
2020 United States presidential election in Virginia[62][63]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris		2,413,56854.11%+4.38%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence		1,962,43044.00%−0.41%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		64,7611.45%−1.52%
Write-in19,7650.44%-0.41%
Turnout4,460,52475.07%+5.8%
Total votes4,460,524100.00%

By county and independent city

[edit]
Locality[64]Joe Biden
Democratic		Donald Trump
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Accomack7,57844.68%9,17254.07%2121.25%-1,594-9.40%16,962
Albemarle42,46665.68%20,80432.18%1,3872.15%21,66233.50%64,657
Alexandria66,24080.28%14,54417.63%1,7242.09%51,69662.66%82,508
Alleghany2,24327.34%5,85971.43%1011.23%-3,616-44.08%8,203
Amelia2,41130.55%5,39068.29%921.17%-2,979-37.74%7,893
Amherst5,67233.35%11,04164.93%2921.72%-5,369-31.57%17,005
Appomattox2,41826.09%6,70272.31%1481.60%-4,284-46.22%9,268
Arlington105,34480.60%22,31817.08%3,0372.32%83,02663.52%130,699
Augusta10,84025.64%30,71472.65%7241.71%-19,874-47.01%42,278
Bath64625.83%1,83473.33%210.84%-1,188-47.50%2,501
Bedford12,17625.02%35,60073.15%8931.83%-23,424-48.13%48,669
Bland53215.29%2,90383.44%441.26%-2,371-68.15%3,479
Botetourt5,70026.99%15,09971.49%3211.52%-9,399-44.50%21,120
Bristol2,31329.63%5,34768.50%1461.87%-3,034-38.87%7,806
Brunswick4,55257.27%3,35742.24%390.49%1,19515.04%7,948
Buchanan1,58715.94%8,31183.50%550.55%-6,724-67.56%9,953
Buckingham3,47142.71%4,54455.92%1111.37%-1,073-13.20%8,126
Buena Vista82529.72%1,86367.11%883.17%-1,038-37.39%2,776
Campbell8,07027.00%21,24571.07%5771.93%-13,175-44.08%29,892
Caroline7,65747.01%8,33651.18%2951.81%-679-4.17%16,288
Carroll2,84218.16%12,65980.88%1500.96%-9,817-62.72%15,651
Charles City2,62459.09%1,76139.65%561.26%86319.43%4,441
Charlotte2,31737.43%3,81561.62%590.95%-1,498-24.20%6,191
Charlottesville20,69685.50%3,09412.78%4151.71%17,60272.72%24,205
Chesapeake66,37752.22%58,18045.77%2,5512.01%8,1976.45%127,108
Chesterfield106,93552.45%93,32645.77%3,6231.78%13,6096.67%203,884
Clarke3,92041.98%5,19255.61%2252.41%-1,272-13.62%9,337
Colonial Heights2,97232.50%6,00765.68%1671.83%-3,035-33.18%9,146
Covington96437.03%1,58060.70%592.27%-616-23.67%2,603
Craig58718.52%2,53680.03%461.45%-1,949-61.50%3,169
Culpeper10,61739.15%16,01259.05%4871.80%-5,395-19.90%27,116
Cumberland2,22741.94%3,01956.85%641.21%-792-14.92%5,310
Danville11,71060.40%7,42838.31%2511.29%4,28222.08%19,389
Dickenson1,50320.58%5,74878.71%520.71%-4,245-58.13%7,303
Dinwiddie6,22441.24%8,69557.61%1731.15%-2,471-16.37%15,092
Emporia1,61267.70%75431.67%150.63%85836.04%2,381
Essex3,03849.17%3,07549.77%651.05%-37-0.60%6,178
Fairfax City9,17468.04%4,00729.72%3022.24%5,16738.32%13,483
Fairfax County419,94369.89%168,40128.03%12,4792.08%251,54241.87%600,823
Falls Church7,14681.03%1,49016.90%1832.08%5,65664.13%8,819
Fauquier17,56540.23%25,10657.50%9902.27%-7,541-17.27%43,661
Floyd3,00431.93%6,22566.17%1791.90%-3,221-34.24%9,408
Fluvanna7,41446.81%8,15551.48%2711.71%-741-4.68%15,840
Franklin City2,52562.22%1,48736.64%461.13%1,03825.58%4,058
Franklin County8,38128.22%20,89570.35%4261.43%-12,514-42.13%29,702
Frederick17,20735.33%30,55862.74%9381.93%-13,351-27.41%48,703
Fredericksburg8,51766.22%4,03731.39%3082.39%4,48034.83%12,862
Galax77729.45%1,83869.67%230.87%-1,061-40.22%2,638
Giles2,15623.50%6,87674.93%1441.57%-4,720-51.44%9,176
Gloucester6,96431.25%14,87566.76%4431.99%-7,911-35.50%22,282
Goochland6,68539.44%9,96658.80%2991.76%-3,281-19.36%16,950
Grayson1,53518.88%6,52980.30%670.82%-4,994-61.42%8,131
Greene4,16336.80%6,86660.70%2822.49%-2,703-23.90%11,311
Greensville2,62757.43%1,91441.85%330.72%71315.59%4,574
Halifax7,66642.01%10,41857.09%1640.90%-2,752-15.08%18,248
Hampton46,22070.14%18,43027.97%1,2511.90%27,79042.17%65,901
Hanover25,30735.66%44,31862.45%1,3421.89%-19,011-26.79%70,967
Harrisonburg11,02264.51%5,59132.72%4732.77%5,43131.79%17,086
Henrico116,57263.65%63,44034.64%3,1401.71%53,13229.01%183,152
Henry9,12734.96%16,72564.07%2530.97%-7,598-29.11%26,105
Highland41727.20%1,09271.23%241.57%-675-44.03%1,533
Hopewell5,43056.52%4,02041.84%1581.64%1,41014.68%9,608
Isle of Wight9,39940.07%13,70758.44%3501.49%-4,308-18.37%23,456
James City25,55351.50%23,15346.66%9161.85%2,4004.84%49,622
King and Queen1,59038.64%2,45059.54%751.82%-860-20.90%4,115
King George5,40437.99%8,44659.38%3742.63%-3,042-21.39%14,224
King William3,26030.37%7,32068.18%1561.45%-4,060-37.82%10,736
Lancaster3,36847.09%3,69751.69%871.22%-329-4.60%7,152
Lee1,48914.97%8,36584.10%920.92%-6,876-69.13%9,946
Lexington1,79164.84%90632.80%652.35%88532.04%2,762
Loudoun138,37261.54%82,08836.51%4,4021.96%56,28425.03%224,862
Louisa8,26937.73%13,29460.66%3521.61%-5,025-22.93%21,915
Lunenburg2,41840.30%3,53758.95%450.75%-1,119-18.65%6,000
Lynchburg18,04849.63%17,09747.02%1,2183.35%9512.62%36,363
Madison2,69833.19%5,30065.20%1311.61%-2,602-32.01%8,129
Manassas10,35661.03%6,25636.87%3562.10%4,10024.16%16,968
Manassas Park3,99265.58%1,97932.51%1161.91%2,01333.07%6,087
Martinsville3,76662.63%2,16536.01%821.36%1,60126.63%6,013
Mathews1,82531.33%3,90166.96%1001.72%-2,076-35.63%5,826
Mecklenburg6,80341.98%9,26657.18%1350.83%-2,463-15.20%16,204
Middlesex2,49136.71%4,19661.84%981.44%-1,705-25.13%6,785
Montgomery23,21851.55%20,62945.80%1,1902.64%2,5895.75%45,037
Nelson4,32746.45%4,81251.65%1771.90%-485-5.21%9,316
New Kent4,62131.95%9,63166.59%2111.46%-5,010-34.64%14,463
Newport News53,09965.39%26,37732.48%1,7272.13%26,72232.91%81,203
Norfolk64,44071.69%23,44326.08%1,9982.22%40,99745.61%89,881
Northampton3,66754.47%2,95543.89%1101.63%71210.58%6,732
Northumberland3,25241.61%4,48557.39%781.00%-1,233-15.78%7,815
Norton46428.98%1,10969.27%281.75%-645-40.29%1,601
Nottoway2,97141.98%4,02756.89%801.13%-1,056-14.92%7,078
Orange7,99538.54%12,42659.91%3211.55%-4,431-21.36%20,742
Page3,00724.03%9,34574.68%1621.29%-6,338-50.65%12,514
Patrick1,95420.50%7,48578.51%951.00%-5,531-58.01%9,534
Petersburg12,38987.75%1,58411.22%1451.03%10,80576.53%14,118
Pittsylvania10,11529.55%23,75169.39%3611.05%-13,636-39.84%34,227
Poquoson2,05426.14%5,60571.34%1982.52%-3,551-45.20%7,857
Portsmouth30,94869.42%12,75528.61%8791.97%18,19340.81%44,582
Powhatan5,32026.96%14,05571.24%3551.80%-8,735-44.27%19,730
Prince Edward4,97351.94%4,43446.31%1671.74%5395.63%9,574
Prince George7,10340.75%10,10357.96%2261.30%-3,000-17.21%17,432
Prince William142,86362.64%81,22235.61%3,9711.74%61,64127.03%228,056
Pulaski4,92528.34%12,12769.79%3241.86%-7,202-41.45%17,376
Radford3,35853.13%2,78644.08%1762.78%5729.05%6,320
Rappahannock2,09642.11%2,81256.49%701.41%-716-14.38%4,978
Richmond City92,17582.92%16,60314.94%2,3812.14%75,57267.99%111,159
Richmond County1,51336.88%2,54762.09%421.02%-1,034-25.21%4,102
Roanoke City26,77361.80%15,60736.02%9432.18%11,16625.77%43,323
Roanoke County21,80138.12%34,26859.93%1,1151.95%-12,467-21.80%57,184
Rockbridge4,08633.02%8,08865.37%1991.61%-4,002-32.34%12,373
Rockingham12,64428.86%30,34969.27%8181.87%-17,705-40.41%43,811
Russell2,37317.73%10,87981.27%1341.00%-8,506-63.54%13,386
Salem5,14839.45%7,68358.87%2201.69%-2,535-19.42%13,051
Scott1,69215.57%9,06383.38%1141.05%-7,371-67.82%10,869
Shenandoah6,83628.86%16,46369.51%3851.63%-9,627-40.65%23,684
Smyth3,00821.28%10,96377.55%1651.17%-7,955-56.27%14,136
Southampton3,96940.56%5,73058.55%870.89%-1,761-18.00%9,786
Spotsylvania34,30745.55%39,41152.33%1,5992.12%-5,104-6.78%75,317
Stafford40,24550.54%37,63647.27%1,7442.19%2,6093.28%79,625
Staunton6,98153.74%5,69543.84%3142.42%1,2869.90%12,990
Suffolk28,67657.77%20,08240.45%8841.78%8,59417.31%49,642
Surry2,39753.61%2,02545.29%491.10%3728.32%4,471
Sussex2,82755.56%2,21943.61%420.83%60811.95%5,088
Tazewell3,20515.92%16,73183.10%1980.98%-13,526-67.18%20,134
Virginia Beach117,39351.59%105,08746.18%5,0812.23%12,3065.41%227,561
Warren6,60331.22%14,06966.53%4752.25%-7,466-35.31%21,147
Washington6,61723.07%21,67975.58%3891.36%-15,062-52.51%28,685
Waynesboro4,96146.29%5,50751.39%2492.32%-546-5.09%10,717
Westmoreland4,50145.31%5,31853.54%1141.15%-817-8.23%9,933
Williamsburg4,79069.59%1,96328.52%1301.89%2,82741.07%6,883
Winchester6,61054.60%5,22143.13%2752.27%1,38911.47%12,106
Wise3,11018.72%13,36680.45%1390.84%-10,256-61.73%16,615
Wythe3,14320.85%11,73377.85%1961.30%-8,590-56.99%15,072
York17,68345.59%20,24152.19%8632.22%-2,558-6.59%38,787
Totals2,413,56854.11%1,962,43044.00%84,5261.89%451,13810.11%4,460,524
Swing by county and independent city
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
Trend relative to the state by county and independent city
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
County and independent city flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden won seven of Virginia's 11 congressional districts.[66]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st51%47%Rob Wittman
2nd47%51%Elaine Luria
3rd31%67%Bobby Scott
4th37%62%Donald McEachin
5th53%45%Denver Riggleman
Bob Good
6th60%38%Ben Cline
7th49%50%Abigail Spanberger
8th21%77%Don Beyer
9th70%28%Morgan Griffith
10th39%59%Jennifer Wexton
11th28%70%Gerry Connolly

Analysis

[edit]

In this election, Virginia voted 5.6% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Although Virginia was considered a reliably Republican state at the presidential level from1952 to2004 (having only gone to the Democrats once during that period, inLyndon B. Johnson's1964 landslide), it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since then. In recent years, densely populated counties in Northern Virginia close toWashington, D.C., have tilted towards the Democrats. This was the first election since1988 that a presidential candidate won Virginia by double digits (George H. W. Bush having carried the state by 20.5% in his first run), and the first election in which any presidential candidate received over 2 million votes in Virginia.

As fellowSouthern stateGeorgia tilted towards Biden, he became the first Democrat sinceHarry Truman in 1948 to carry both states. This was also the first election in which a formerConfederate state backed a Democratic candidate by a margin of victory greater than 10% since 1996, whenArkansas andLouisiana did so forBill Clinton.

Following the election, news and political analysts considered the presidential results in Virginia, along with Democratsholding the senate seat held by Mark Warner, theirhouse congressional majority, plus the previous year's elections in which Democratsflipped the state General Assembly, to be indicative that it was no longer a swing state, but a blue state.[67][68] Democrats did win the state again in2024, albeit by a smaller margin of about 6%.

Their domination of state and local offices would be short-lived, however, as in 2021 the Republicans flipped the Democratic-held offices ofgovernor,lieutenant governor, andattorney general, as well as winning control of theVirginia House of Delegates.[69][70] In2023, Democrats recaptured the House of Delegates, winning full control of the General Assembly once again, albeit by narrower margins than what they acquired in 2019.

Voter demographics

[edit]
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupBidenTrumpNo
Answer		% of
Voters
Party
Democrat964N/A36
Republican990N/A34
Independent5738N/A30
Gender
Men4948149
Women6138151
Race
White4553267
Black8910118
Latino613637
Asian603824
Other504373
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men3958333
White women5049133
Black men8614N/A8
Black women928N/A11
Latino men (of any race)534163
Latino women (of any race)6832N/A4
All other races584028
Gender by marital status
Married men5049N/A29
Married women5147N/A28
Unmarried men5839320
Unmarried women6930N/A23
Parents
Men with children4949115
Women with children5841119
Men no children5343434
Women no children6038232
Age
18–24 years old6233112
25–29 years old633438
30–39 years old6038217
40–49 years old6336116
50–64 years old4851N/A29
65 and older4554118
LGBT
Yes8311N/A5
No5343495
First time voter
First time voter653239
Everyone else5542N/A91
U.S. military veteran
Yes3662N/A16
No5938N/A84
Education
College graduate5740N/A43
No college degree5346157
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates5245333
White no college degree3862N/A34
Non-white college graduates7524110
Non-white no college degree7622223
Income
Under $50,0006039133
$50,000–99,9995247127
Over $100,0004653141
Abortion should be
Legal7820254
Illegal2969142
Area Type
Urban6434224
Suburban5345260
Rural4652216
Region
DC Suburbs6830N/A30
Central Virginia4453316
Hampton Roads6236N/A16
Richmond/Southside5642N/A18
Mountain3563N/A20
Source:CNN[71]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^The "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary" website published by the Virginia Department of Elections does not include the write-in votes.[13] This article includes them.
  2. ^abcCandidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the primary.
  3. ^abcCandidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
  4. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^abcdefghijKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  7. ^"Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  8. ^"Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^"Third party candidate" with 2%
  10. ^abcdefghiIncludes "refused"
  11. ^"Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
  12. ^"Someone else" with 3%
  13. ^With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  14. ^"Another candidate" with 2%
  15. ^"Third party candidate" with 1%
  16. ^"Some other candidate" with 3%
  17. ^Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  18. ^"Would vote for a third party candidate" with 6%
  19. ^"It is time to have someone else in office" as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected" with 59%
  20. ^"Refused" with 0%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abPoll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018)."US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?".The Independent.Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  2. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  3. ^"Without Northern Virginia, Trump would have won the state".Inside Nova. RetrievedNovember 17, 2020.
  4. ^"Chesterfield and Lynchburg hadn't backed a Democrat for president since 1948. Biden changed that".Virginia Mercury. November 5, 2020. RetrievedNovember 17, 2020.
  5. ^"Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 13, 2020.
  6. ^ab"Virginia Republicans Will Hold 2020 Presidential Preference Vote at State Convention".Frontloading. September 18, 2019. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2019.
  7. ^Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019)."GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers".The Boston Globe. MSN. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2019.
  8. ^Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019)."GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged".ABC News. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2019.
  9. ^"Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2020.
  10. ^Mattingly, Justin (June 30, 2020)."Republican Party of Virginia reschedules 'unassembled' convention for August".Richmond Times-Dispatch. RetrievedJuly 10, 2020.
  11. ^Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019)."Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass".The New York Times. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  12. ^"2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary".Virginia.gov. Virginia Department of Elections.Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. RetrievedMarch 25, 2020.
  13. ^"2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived fromthe original on March 17, 2020. RetrievedMarch 11, 2020.
  14. ^"2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Virginia Democrat".The Green Papers. RetrievedJuly 4, 2020.
  15. ^abJonah Thomas (May 12, 2020)."2020 GPVA Presidential Primary Results".
  16. ^"2020 POTUS Race ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  17. ^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  18. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President".crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  19. ^"2020 Election Forecast".Politico. November 19, 2019.
  20. ^"Battle for White House".RCP. April 19, 2019.
  21. ^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College PredictionsArchived April 23, 2020, at theWayback Machine,Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  22. ^David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020)."Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020".CNN. RetrievedJune 16, 2020.
  23. ^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist. RetrievedJuly 7, 2020.
  24. ^"2020 Election Battleground Tracker".CBS News. July 12, 2020. RetrievedJuly 13, 2020.
  25. ^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270 to Win.
  26. ^"ABC News Race Ratings".ABC News. July 24, 2020. RetrievedJuly 24, 2020.
  27. ^Montanaro, Domenico (September 16, 2020)."2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Landscape tightens some, but Biden is still ahead".NPR. RetrievedJanuary 15, 2021.
  28. ^"Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map".NBC News. October 27, 2020. RetrievedJanuary 15, 2021.
  29. ^"Biden is very likely to win Virginia".FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived fromthe original on September 3, 2020. RetrievedJanuary 15, 2021.
  30. ^270 to Win
  31. ^FiveThirtyEight
  32. ^abcdefSurveyMonkey/Axios
  33. ^SwayableArchived November 13, 2020, at theWayback Machine
  34. ^Data for Progress
  35. ^Roanoke College
  36. ^Christopher Newport University
  37. ^Swayable
  38. ^Virginia Commonwealth University
  39. ^Schar School/Washington Post
  40. ^Civiqs/Daily Kos
  41. ^Reconnect Research/Roanoke College
  42. ^Survey Monkey/Tableau
  43. ^Cygnal/Gade for Virginia
  44. ^Cygnal/Gade for Virginia
  45. ^Christopher Newport University
  46. ^Virginia Commonwealth UniversityArchived September 15, 2020, at theWayback Machine
  47. ^Roanoke College
  48. ^abMorning Consult
  49. ^Virginia Commonwealth University
  50. ^Roanoke College
  51. ^Virginia Commonwealth University
  52. ^abcdefHampton University
  53. ^abcdefRoanoke College
  54. ^abcdMason-Dixon
  55. ^abcVirginia Commonwealth University
  56. ^abcdVirginia Commonwealth University
  57. ^abUniversity of Mary Washington/Research America
  58. ^abUniversity of Mary Washington
  59. ^"2019 Virginia Legislative Election Survey - Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy - Christopher Newport University".cnu.edu. November 4, 2020. RetrievedAugust 16, 2024.
  60. ^"2020 Virginia Presidential Primary Poll - Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy - Christopher Newport University".cnu.edu. November 4, 2020. RetrievedAugust 16, 2024.
  61. ^Ipsos/University of Virginia
  62. ^"2020 November General".results.elections.virginia.gov. Archived fromthe original on January 2, 2021. RetrievedNovember 20, 2020.
  63. ^"Virginia Department of Elections - Registration/Turnout Reports".
  64. ^O'Bannon, John (November 3, 2020)."2020 President General Election".Virginia Department of Elections.Archived from the original on September 8, 2025. RetrievedOctober 13, 2025.
  65. ^abcdef"Counties that flipped from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election".The Republican. March 17, 2021.Archived from the original on January 4, 2025.
  66. ^"Dra 2020".
  67. ^"Virginia went from purple to blue. Here's what lies ahead for Virginia Republicans".13newsnow.com. November 5, 2020. RetrievedJune 9, 2023.
  68. ^"EDITORIAL: 'NoVA creep" turns former red state blue".Fredericksburg.com. November 18, 2020. RetrievedJune 9, 2023.
  69. ^"So, what color is Virginia now?".Roll Call. November 16, 2021. RetrievedJune 9, 2023.
  70. ^"Republicans Bucked Virginia's Blue State Trend. Here Are A Few Reasons Why".WAMU. RetrievedJune 9, 2023.
  71. ^"Virginia 2020 President Exit Polls".www.cnn.com. RetrievedDecember 14, 2020.

External links

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