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2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina
← 2016November 3, 20202024 →
Turnout75.35%Increase[1]
 
NomineeDonald TrumpJoe Biden
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaDelaware
Running mateMike PenceKamala Harris
Electoral vote150
Popular vote2,758,7752,684,292
Percentage49.93%48.59%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No votes

  
  

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in North Carolina
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives

The2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[2]North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state was narrowly won by theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump ofFlorida, and running mate Vice PresidentMike Pence ofIndiana, againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden ofDelaware, and his running mateCalifornia SenatorKamala Harris. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Polls of the state throughout the campaign indicated a close race, with most organizations considering it either a tossup or leaning towards Biden. Despite this, Trump ultimately won North Carolina with a 49.93% plurality over Biden's 48.59% vote share (a margin of 1.34%). Trump thereby became the fourth-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency, afterGeorge H. W. Bush in1992,Bob Dole in1996, andMitt Romney in2012. This was Trump's narrowest victory in any state, and it was a closer result than his 3.67% margin overHillary Clinton in2016 orMitt Romney's 2.04% margin overBarack Obama in2012. North Carolina was the only state in the 2020 election in which Trump won with under 50% of the vote.[a] In the 2020 election, North Carolina was 5.8% right of the nation as a whole. The state last voted Democratic in2008 and had last voted more Republican than neighboringGeorgia in2000.

Trump's victory was, alongside his victory and actual improvement over 2016 in Florida, one of the upsets of the cycle. Election data websiteFiveThirtyEight's election forecast had Biden up in both states,[4] albeit by small margins. Similarly, prediction websitesInside Elections,Sabato's Crystal Ball,The Economist, andABC News all had Biden favored in the state.

Primary elections

[edit]

Presidential preference primaries were held on March 3, 2020 (first cases ofCOVID-19), for each of the political parties with state ballot access.

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary

Despite speculation that he might seek the Democratic nomination,Roy Cooper, theGovernor of North Carolina, declined to run.[5][6]

Popular vote share by county
  Biden—<30%
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
2020 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary[7]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[8]
Joe Biden572,27142.9568
Bernie Sanders322,64524.2237
Michael Bloomberg172,55812.953
Elizabeth Warren139,91210.502
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[b]43,6323.27
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[b]30,7422.31
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[b]10,6790.80
Tulsi Gabbard6,6220.50
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)2,9730.22
Cory Booker(withdrawn)2,1810.16
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)1,9780.15
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)1,3410.10
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)1,2430.09
John Delaney(withdrawn)1,0980.08
Julian Castro(withdrawn)6990.05
No Preference21,8081.64
Total1,332,382100%110

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 North Carolina Republican presidential primary

TheNorth Carolina Republican Party submitted to the state only the name of incumbent President Donald Trump to be listed on the primary ballot. The campaign ofBill Weld "has written to the [state Board of Elections] asking to be added to the ballot, arguing that his candidacy meets the legal test because he’s received 'widespread news coverage,' raised more than $1.2 million, and has qualified for the primary ballot in six other states," according to the News and Observer.[9] Joe Walsh similarly petitioned the state board of elections. On Dec. 20, 2019, the state board unanimously voted to include both Weld and Walsh on the ballot.[10]

2020 North Carolina Republican presidential primary[11]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[12]
Donald Trump(incumbent)750,60093.5371
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)16,3562.040
Bill Weld15,4861.930
No Preference20,0852.50
Total802,527100%71


Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary
← 2016March 3, 20202024 →
← MA
MO →
 
CandidateNone of the aboveJacob HornbergerJohn McAfee
Home stateN/AVirginiaTennessee
Popular vote2,060604570
Percentage45.2%13.3%12.5%
 
CandidateKim Ruff
(withdrawn)		Vermin SupremeKen Armstrong
Home stateArizonaMassachusettsOregon
Popular vote545410366
Percentage12%9%8%
Election results by county
  None of the above
  Kim Ruff
  Vermin Supreme
  Ken Armstrong
  Jo Jorgensen
  Steve Richey
  Dan Behrman
  Jedidiah Hill
  Tie
  No votes
North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 3, 2020[13]
CandidateVotesPercentage
None of the above2,06030%
Jacob Hornberger6049%
John McAfee5708%
Kim Ruff (withdrawn)5458%
Vermin Supreme4106%
Ken Armstrong3665%
Jo Jorgensen3165%
Steve Richey2784%
Adam Kokesh2403%
Max Abramson2363%
James Ogle2323%
Kenneth Blevins1993%
Dan Behrman1943%
Jedidiah Hill1943%
Souraya Faas1933%
Erik Gerhardt1502%
Arvin Vohra1272%
Total6,914100%

Green primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 Green Party presidential primaries
2020 North Carolina Green Party presidential primary[14][15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
GreenHowie Hawkins24760.54%
GreenNo Preference16139.46%
Total votes408100%

Constitution primary

[edit]
2020 North Carolina Constitution Party presidential primary[14][16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
ConstitutionNo Preference19344.57%
ConstitutionDon Blankenship12829.56%
ConstitutionCharles Kraut11225.87%
Total votes438100%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[17]Tossup
Inside Elections[18]Tilt D(flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19]Lean D(flip)
Politico[20]Tossup
RCP[21]Tossup
Niskanen[22]Tossup
CNN[23]Tossup
The Economist[24]Lean D(flip)
CBS News[25]Tossup
270towin[26]Tossup
ABC News[27]Lean D(flip)
NPR[28]Tossup
NBC News[29]Tossup
FiveThirtyEight[30]Lean D(flip)

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other/
Undecided
[c]		Margin
270 to Win[31]October 31 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202047.8%47.5%4.7%Biden +0.3
Real Clear Politics[32]October 26 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202047.6%47.8%4.6%Trump +0.2
FiveThirtyEight[33]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202048.9%47.1%4.0%Biden +1.8
Average48.1%47.5%4.4%Biden +0.6

June 1 – October 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		Howie
Hawkins
Green		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20205,363 (LV)± 2%48%[e]50%--––
Change Research/CNBC[35]Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020473 (LV)± 4.51%47%49%2%1%–1%
Swayable[36]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020690 (LV)± 5.3%46%52%1%0%––
Ipsos/Reuters[37]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020707 (LV)± 4.2%48%[f]49%1%1%2%[g]–
48%[h]49%--3%[i]1%
48%[j]50%--2%[k]–
Data for Progress[38]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020908 (LV)± 3.3%48%50%1%1%0%[l]–
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[39][A]Oct 30–31, 2020676 (LV)± 3.7%49%51%--––
AtlasIntel[40]Oct 30–31, 2020812 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%--3%–
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[41][B]Oct 30–31, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%48%44%2%-–7%
Emerson College[42]Oct 29–31, 2020855 (LV)± 3.3%47%[m]47%--6%[n]–
Morning Consult[43]Oct 22–31, 20201,982 (LV)± 2%48%49%--––
CNN/SSRS[44]Oct 23–30, 2020901 (LV)± 4.1%45%51%2%1%1%[o]1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[45]Oct 28–29, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%--2%[k]–
Trafalgar Group[46]Oct 27–29, 20201,082 (LV)± 2.9%49%47%3%-1%[p]1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[47]Oct 26–29, 20201,489 (LV)–47%49%2%0%0%2%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill[48]Oct 26–29, 2020903 (LV)–48%49%--–3%
East Carolina University[49]Oct 27–28, 20201,103 (LV)± 3.4%48%[m]50%--2%[q]0%[r]
Cardinal Point Analytics (R)/NSJ[50]Oct 27–28, 2020750 (LV)± 3.6%48%46%1%1%2%[s]2%
Marist College/NBC[51]Oct 25–28, 2020800 (LV)± 4.7%46%52%--2%1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Oct 1–28, 20208,720 (LV)–47%52%--––
Gravis Marketing[52]Oct 26–27, 2020614 (LV)± 4%46%49%--–4%
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[53][C]Oct 26–27, 2020937 (V)± 3.2%47%51%--–3%
Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform (R)[54]Oct 24–27, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%48%--––
Siena College/NYT Upshot[55]Oct 23–27, 20201,034 (LV)± 3.4%45%48%2%1%0%[t]4%[u]
Ipsos/Reuters[56]Oct 21–27, 2020647 (LV)± 4.4%48%[f]49%1%1%1%[v]–
48%[h]49%--2%[w]1%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[57]Oct 24–26, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47%[f]48%--3%[x]2%
46%[y]50%--3%[x]2%
49%[z]47%--3%[x]2%
Swayable[58]Oct 23–26, 2020396 (LV)± 6.8%48%50%2%0%––
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV[59]Oct 23–26, 2020627 (LV)± 4.9%48%48%--2%[k]2%
YouGov/UMass Amherst[60]Oct 20–26, 2020911 (LV)± 4.2%48%48%1%0%1%[aa]2%
Wick Surveys[61]Oct 24–25, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%49%47%--––
Harper Polling/Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[62]Oct 22–25, 2020504 (LV)± 4.37%46%47%1%0%0%[ab]6%
YouGov/CBS[63]Oct 20–23, 20201,022 (LV)± 4.1%47%51%––2%[ac]0%
Trafalgar Group[64]Oct 20–22, 20201,098 (LV)± 2.9%48.8%46%2.3%0.4%0.8%[ad]1.7%
Citizen Data[65]Oct 17–20, 20201000 (LV)± 3.1%44%50%1%0.2%1.3%3.6%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[66]Oct 20–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%--2%[k]3%
Ipsos/Reuters[67]Oct 14–20, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%47%[f]49%1%1%1%[v]–
46%[h]49%--2%[w]2%
Morning Consult[43]Oct 11–20, 20201,904 (LV)± 2.2%47%50%--––
Meredith College[68]Oct 16–19, 2020732 (LV)± 3.5%44%48%1%1%0%[ae]4%
Change Research/CNBC[69]Oct 16–19, 2020521 (LV)[af]–47%50%--––
Data for Progress (D)[70]Oct 15–18, 2020929 (LV)± 3.2%44%48%1%1%–5%
East Carolina University[71]Oct 15–18, 20201,155 (LV)± 3.4%47%[m]51%--2%[ag]0%
ABC/Washington Post[72]Oct 12–17, 2020646 (LV)± 4.5%48%[f]49%1%0%[r]0%[ah]1%
48%[ai]50%--0%[ah]1%
Emerson College[73]Oct 11–14, 2020721 (LV)± 3.6%49%[m]49%--2%[aj]–
Civiqs/Daily Kos[74]Oct 11–14, 20201,211 (LV)± 3.3%46%51%--2%[aj]1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[75]Oct 10–13, 2020994 (LV)–46%[af]49%1%0%––
Siena College/NYT Upshot[76]Oct 9–13, 2020627 (LV)± 4.5%42%46%2%1%1%[ak]8%[u]
Ipsos/Reuters[77]Oct 7–13, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%48%[f]48%2%0%1%[v]–
47%[h]48%--3%[i]3%
Monmouth University[78]Oct 8–11, 2020500 (RV)± 4.4%46%49%3%0%0%[al]2%
500 (LV)[am]46%50%--2%2%
500 (LV)[an]48%49%--2%1%
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV[79]Oct 8–11, 2020669 (LV)± 4.8%45%50%--2%[k]3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./American Greatness PAC[80][B]Oct 7–11, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%46%48%2%-1%[ao]4%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[81]Oct 7–11, 2020800 (LV)–45%[f]47%2%1%1%4%
43%[y]49%2%1%1%4%
47%[z]44%2%1%1%4%
Morning Consult[82]Oct 2–11, 20201,993 (LV)± 2.2%46%50%--––
YouGov/CCES[83]Sep 29 – Oct 7, 20201,627 (LV)–45%49%--––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[75]Oct 9–10, 2020750 (LV)–42%[af]49%1%0%––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[84]Oct 4–6, 2020938 (LV)± 3.2%44%49%1%0%0%[ap]5%
Ipsos/Reuters[85]Sep 29 – Oct 6, 2020693 (LV)± 4.2%47%47%--2%[w]3%
Public Policy Polling[86]Oct 4–5, 2020911 (V)–46%50%--–3%
Data For Progress (D)[87]Sep 30 – Oct 5, 20201,285 (LV)± 2.7%44%51%2%0%–3%
Change Research/CNBC[88]Oct 2–4, 2020396 (LV)–47%49%--––
East Carolina University[89]Oct 2–4, 20201,232 (LV)± 3.2%46%50%--2%[aq]2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Sep 1–30, 20203,495 (LV)–46%52%--–2%
ALG Research/Piedmont Rising[90][D]Sep 22–28, 2020822 (V)–47%50%--––
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[91][E]Sep 24–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%47%49%--––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[92]Sep 23–26, 20201,097 (LV)± 2.96%45%47%2%0%1%[ar]6%
YouGov/CBS[93]Sep 22–25, 20201,213 (LV)± 3.6%46%48%--2%[as]4%
YouGov/UMass Lowell[94]Sep 18–25, 2020921 (LV)± 4.1%47%[f]47%2%1%0%[at]2%
49%[au]48%--2%[av]2%
Meredith College[95]Sep 18–22, 2020705 (RV)± 3.5%45%46%2%0%1%[aw]6%
Change Research/CNBC[96]Sep 18–20, 2020579 (LV)–46%48%--––
Harper Polling/Harper Polling/Civitas (R)[97]Sep 17–20, 2020612 (LV)± 3.96%45%44%2%0%0%[ae]8%
Emerson College[98]Sep 16–18, 2020717 (LV)± 3.6%49%[m]51%--––
Siena College/NYT Upshot[99]Sep 11–16, 2020653 (LV)± 4.3%44%45%2%1%0%[t]8%[u]
Ipsos/Reuters[100]Sep 11–16, 2020586 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%--3%[i]3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[101]Sep 12–15, 20201,092 (LV)± 2.97%45%47%1%1%0%[ap]5%
Suffolk University/USA Today[102]Sep 11–14, 2020500 (LV)–42.8%46.2%4.8%0.2%1.8%[ax]4.2%
SurveyUSA/WRAL TV[103]Sep 10–13, 2020596 (LV)± 5.6%47%47%--2%[k]5%
CNN/SSRS[104]Sep 9–13, 2020787 (LV)± 3.9%46%49%2%1%0%[ay]2%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report[105]Aug 29 – Sep 13, 20201,172 (RV)± 3%43%45%--4%[az]9%
Trafalgar[106]Sep 9–11, 20201,046 (LV)± 3%47.8%46.1%1.6%0.5%1.5%[ba]2.5%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[107][1]Sep 7–8, 20201,000 (LV)± 3%49%[m]48%--3%[bb]–
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Group/AARP[108]Aug 28 – Sep 8, 20201,600 (LV)± 2.5%48%48%--1%[bc]4%
Morning Consult[109]Aug 29 – Sep 7, 20201,592 (LV)± (2%-4%)47%[bd]48%--––
Change Research/CNBC[110]Sep 4–6, 2020442 (LV)–47%49%--4%[be]–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[111]Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020951 (LV)± 3.18%44%43%1%1%1%[ar]9%
Monmouth University[112]Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020401 (RV)± 4.9%45%47%3%0%1%[bf]3%
401 (LV)[bg]46%48%--3%3%
401 (LV)[bh]46%48%--3%3%
Fox News[113]Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020722 (LV)± 3.5%46%50%1%0%0%[bi]2%
804 (RV)± 3.5%45%49%2%1%2%[bj]3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Aug 1–31, 20202,914 (LV)–51%48%--–2%
East Carolina University[114]Aug 29–30, 20201,101 (LV)± 3.4%49%47%--2%[k]3%
Morning Consult[115]Aug 21–30, 20201,567 (LV)± (2%–4%)47%49%--––
Change Research/CNBC[116]Aug 21–23, 2020560 (LV)–47%48%––––
Morning Consult[117]Aug 14–23, 20201,541 (LV)± 2.0%46%49%––1%[p]3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[118]Aug 16–17, 2020967 (LV)± 3.09%46%44%2%0%1%[ar]7%
Morning Consult[115]Aug 7–16, 20201,493 (LV)± (2%–4%)46%49%--––
East Carolina University[119]Aug 12–13, 20201,255 (RV)± 3.2%47%47%––3%[bk]4%
Emerson College[120]Aug 8–10, 2020673 (LV)± 3.8%51%[bl]49%––––
Harper Polling/Civitas[121]Aug 6–10, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%44%45%2%1%1%[aw]7%
Change Research/CNBC[122]Aug 7–9, 2020493 (LV)–48%47%––––
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC[123][B]Aug 6–8, 2020750 (LV)± 3.6%48%[af]47%––––
Data for Progress[124]Jul 24 – Aug 2, 20201,170 (LV)–45%49%–––6%
44%46%2%1%–7%
Public Policy Polling/Giffords[125][F]Jul 30–31, 2020934 (V)–46%49%–––6%
YouGov/CBS[126]Jul 28–31, 20201,129 (LV)± 3.9%44%48%––2%[bm]5%
HIT Strategies/DFER[127][G]Jul 23–31, 2020400 (RV)± 4.9%37%47%––4%[bn]10%[u]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Jul 1–31, 20203,466 (LV)–50%49%--–2%
Change Research/CNBC[128][2]Jul 24–26, 2020284 (LV)–46%49%––––
Morning Consult[129]Jul 17–26, 20201,504 (LV)± 2.5%47%47%––––
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[130][H]Jul 23–24, 2020884 (V)–46%49%–––5%
Cardinal Point Analytics[131]Jul 22–24, 2020735 (LV)± 3.6%48%47%1%––4%
Zogby Analytics[132]Jul 21–23, 2020809 (RV)± 3.4%40%44%4%1%–11%
Marist College/NBC News[133]Jul 14–22, 2020882 (RV)± 4.0%44%51%––2%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[134]Jul 19–21, 2020919 (LV)–42%43%2%1%1%11%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[135][I]Jul 11–16, 2020600 (LV)± 3.7%49%46%–––5%
Cardinal Point Analytics[136]Jul 13–15, 2020547 (LV)± 4.2%49%48%1%––3%
Change Research/CNBC[137]Jul 10–12, 2020655 (LV)–46%47%––––
Public Policy Polling[138]Jul 7–8, 2020818 (V)± 3.4%46%50%–––5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[34]Jun 8–30, 20201,498 (LV)–49%49%--–1%
Change Research/CNBC[139]Jun 26–28, 2020468 (LV)[af]–44%51%––––
East Carolina University[140]Jun 22–25, 20201,149 (RV)± 3.4%44%45%––7%[bo]4%
Public Policy Polling[141]Jun 22–23, 20201,157 (V)–46%48%–––6%
Fox News[142]Jun 20–23, 20201,012 (RV)± 3%45%47%––5%[bp]3%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[143]Jun 8–18, 2020653 (RV)± 4.1%40%49%––4%[bq]7%
Gravis Marketing/OANN[144]Jun 17, 2020631 (RV)± 3.9%46%43%–––10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145]Jun 14–17, 2020902 (LV)± 3.26%40%46%1%0%1%11%
Change Research/CNBC[146]Jun 12–14, 2020378 (LV)[af]–45%47%1%1%––
Public Policy Polling[147][3]Jun 2–3, 2020913 (V)± 3.2%45%49%–––6%


January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		OtherUndecided
Change Research/CNBC[148]May 29–31, 2020806 (LV)–45%46%4%4%
Harper Polling/Civitas[149]May 26–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.38%47%44%–9%
Morning Consult[129]May 17–26, 20201,403 (LV)–49%46%––
Neighbourhood Research & Media[150]May 12–21, 2020391 (LV)–42%42%––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151]May 10–14, 2020859 (LV)± 3.3%43%45%3%[br]8%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[152]May 9–13, 2020500 (RV)–47%47%–6%
East Carolina University[153]May 7–9, 20201,111 (RV)± 3.4%46%43%7%[bs]4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[154]May 2–4, 20201,362 (RV)± 3%46%49%4%[bt]2%
Meredith College[155]Apr 27–28, 2020604 (RV)± 4.0%40%47%5%[bu]7%
SurveyUSA[156]Apr 23–26, 2020580 (LV)± 5.5%45%50%–5%
Public Policy Polling[157][J]Apr 20–21, 20201,275 (RV)–46%49%–5%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Garin-Hart-Yang/Put NC First (D)[158]Apr 13–18, 2020800 (LV)–45%48%––
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave[159]Apr 13–16, 2020500 (LV)–46%48%1%4%
Public Policy Polling[160]Apr 14–15, 20201,318 (V)–47%48%–5%
Harper Polling[161]Apr 5–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%49%42%–9%
East Carolina University[162]Feb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%46%48%––
NBC News/Marist College[163]Feb 23–27, 20202,120 (RV)± 2.4%45%49%1%5%
SurveyUSA[164]Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%45%49%–6%
Climate Nexus[165]Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%44%46%–11%

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		OtherUndecided
Fox News[166]Nov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%43%45%5%5%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[167]Oct 13–26, 2019651 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%––
East Carolina University[168]Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%46%50%4%–[bv]
Meredith College[169]Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%38%35%20%[bw]7%
Public Policy Polling[170]Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%46%51%–4%
SurveyUSA[171]Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%41%49%–10%
Harper Polling[172]Aug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%45%44%–11%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[173]Jul 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%45%49%–5%
Public Policy Polling[174]Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%46%49%–5%
Emerson College[175]May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%44%56%––
Spry Strategies (R)[176][K]May 25 – Jun 1, 2019730 (LV)–52%41%–7%
Harper Polling[177]Feb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%43%39%7%11%
Public Policy Polling[178]Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%44%49%–7%
Meredith College[179]Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%45%46%8%1%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Michael
Bloomberg (D)		Undecided
East Carolina University[162]Feb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%46%45%–
Climate Nexus[165]Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%41%47%12%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Cory
Booker (D)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling[177]Feb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%44%36%6%14%
Public Policy Polling[178]Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%46%45%–9%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Pete
Buttigieg (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA[164]Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%46%45%–9%
Climate Nexus[165]Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%42%–14%
Fox News[166]Nov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%43%39%6%8%
East Carolina University[180]Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%49.4%46.8%3.8%–[bv]
Meredith College[169]Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%38%27%25.1%[bx]8.9%
Public Policy Polling[170]Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%47%46%–7%
SurveyUSA[171]Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%41%–16%
Public Policy Polling[174]Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%47%44%–9%
Emerson College[175]May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%48%52%––

Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		OtherUndecided
Meredith College[179]Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%46%36%18%1%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Kamala
Harris (D)		OtherUndecided
East Carolina University[181]Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%49.3%46.9%3.8%–[bv]
Meredith College[169]Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%39.1%28.4%24.8%[bx]7.7%
Public Policy Polling[170]Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%47%47%–5%
SurveyUSA[171]Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%44%43%–13%
Harper Polling[172]Aug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%47%41%–12%
Public Policy Polling[174]Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%47%46%–7%
Emerson College[175]May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%51%49%––
Harper Polling[177]Feb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%45%34%5%16%
Public Policy Polling[178]Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%45%45%–10%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Amy
Klobuchar (D)		Undecided
SurveyUSA[164]Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%46%46%12%
Climate Nexus[165]Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%40%17%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Beto
O'Rourke (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[178]Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%46%45%10%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling/Civitas Institute[182][L]Apr 5–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%50%40%–10%
East Carolina University[162]Feb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%48%43%––
NBC News/Marist College[163]Feb 23–27, 20202,120 (RV)± 2.4%46%48%1%5%
SurveyUSA[164]Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%45%50%–5%
Climate Nexus[165]Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%47%–10%
Fox News[166]Nov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%44%45%4%5%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[167]Oct 13–26, 2019651 (LV)± 4.4%48%44%––
East Carolina University[183]Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%48%49%4%–[bv]
Meredith College[169]Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%39%33%23%[bx]6%
Public Policy Polling[170]Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%47%50%–4%
SurveyUSA[171]Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%47%–10%
Harper Polling[172]Aug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%46%44%–10%
Public Policy Polling[174]Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%47%48%–5%
Emerson College[175]May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%46%54%––
Harper Polling[177]Feb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%46%34%9%10%
Public Policy Polling[178]Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%45%48%–8%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
East Carolina University[162]Feb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%49%41%––
SurveyUSA[164]Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%48%44%–8%
Climate Nexus[165]Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%45%43%–12%
Fox News[166]Nov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%44%43%4%6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[167]Oct 13–26, 2019651 (LV)± 4.4%48%44%––
East Carolina University[184]Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%48.5%47.6%3.9%–[bv]
Meredith College[169]Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%39.1%33%20.2%[bx]7.4%
Public Policy Polling[170]Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%46%49%–5%
SurveyUSA[171]Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%44%–12%
Harper Polling[172]Aug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%46%43%–11%
Public Policy Polling[174]Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%48%46%–6%
Emerson College[175]May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%50%50%––
Public Policy Polling[178]Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%46%46%–8%
Meredith College[179]Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%48%40%12%1%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Michelle Obama

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Michelle
Obama (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA[171]Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%50%–7%

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Oprah
Winfrey (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA[171]Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%45%–12%
Meredith College[179]Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%48%38%12%2%

with Donald Trump and a person whose name was randomly chosen out of a phone book

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic individualRefused/no answerUndecided
Meredith College[169]Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%42.7%40.1%1.1%16.2%

with Donald Trump and Roy Cooper

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Roy
Cooper (D)		OtherUndecided
Meredith College[179]Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%45%43%11%1%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
ALG Research/End Citizens United[185][M]Jan 8–12, 2020700 (LV)–44%48%––
Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United[186][4][M]Sep 16–17, 2019628 (RV)± 3.9%47%50%–3%
Elon University[187]Feb 20 – Mar 7, 2019914 (RV)± 3.5%36%48%6%[n]9%[by]

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
East Carolina University[188]Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3%44%51%[bz]5%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina[189]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence		2,758,77549.93%+0.10%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris		2,684,29248.59%+2.42%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		48,6780.88%−1.86%
GreenHowie Hawkins
Angela Walker		12,1950.22%−0.04%
ConstitutionDon Blankenship
William Mohr		7,5490.14%N/A
Write-in13,3150.24%-0.76%
Total votes5,524,804100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Alamance46,05653.50%38,82545.10%1,2101.40%7,2318.40%86,091
Alexander15,88878.51%4,14520.48%2031.01%11,74358.03%20,236
Alleghany4,52774.51%1,48624.46%631.03%3,04150.05%6,076
Anson5,32147.53%5,78951.72%840.75%-468-4.19%11,194
Ashe11,45172.41%4,16426.33%1991.26%7,28746.08%15,814
Avery7,17275.83%2,19123.17%951.00%4,98152.66%9,458
Beaufort16,43762.46%9,63336.61%2450.93%6,80425.85%26,315
Bertie3,81738.89%5,93960.51%590.60%-2,122-21.62%9,815
Bladen9,67656.50%7,32642.78%1230.72%2,35013.72%17,125
Brunswick55,85061.94%33,31036.94%1,0151.12%22,54025.00%90,175
Buncombe62,41238.63%96,51559.74%2,6421.63%-36,103-21.11%161,569
Burke31,01969.55%13,11829.41%4651.04%17,90140.14%44,602
Cabarrus63,23753.94%52,16244.50%1,8281.56%11,0759.44%117,227
Caldwell32,11974.99%10,24523.92%4651.09%21,87451.07%42,829
Camden4,31272.43%1,53725.82%1041.75%2,77546.61%5,953
Carteret30,02870.33%12,09328.32%5741.35%17,93542.01%42,695
Caswell7,08958.82%4,86040.33%1020.85%2,22918.49%12,051
Catawba56,58867.83%25,68930.79%1,1481.38%30,89937.04%83,425
Chatham21,18643.59%26,78755.12%6261.29%-5,601-11.53%48,599
Cherokee12,62876.89%3,58321.82%2121.29%9,04555.07%16,423
Chowan4,47157.44%3,24741.71%660.85%1,22415.73%7,784
Clay5,11274.16%1,69924.65%821.19%3,41349.51%6,893
Cleveland33,79865.87%16,95533.05%5551.08%16,84332.82%51,308
Columbus16,83263.65%9,44635.72%1680.63%7,38627.93%26,446
Craven31,03258.48%21,14839.85%8851.67%9,88418.63%53,065
Cumberland60,03240.80%84,46957.40%2,6491.80%-24,437-16.60%147,150
Currituck11,65772.19%4,19525.98%2951.83%7,46246.21%16,147
Dare13,93857.52%9,93641.00%3581.48%4,00216.52%24,232
Davidson64,65873.05%22,63625.57%1,2201.38%42,02247.48%88,514
Davie18,22872.02%6,71326.52%3701.46%11,51545.50%25,311
Duplin13,79360.72%8,76738.60%1550.68%5,02622.12%22,715
Durham32,45918.04%144,68880.42%2,7671.54%-112,229-62.38%179,914
Edgecombe9,20636.13%16,08963.15%1820.72%-6,883-27.02%25,477
Forsyth85,06442.26%113,03356.16%3,1731.58%-27,969-13.90%201,270
Franklin20,90155.96%15,87942.51%5711.53%5,02213.45%37,351
Gaston73,03363.23%40,95935.46%1,5061.31%32,07427.77%115,498
Gates3,36756.39%2,54642.64%580.97%82113.75%5,971
Graham3,71079.53%90519.40%501.07%2,80560.13%4,665
Granville16,64752.68%14,56546.09%3861.23%2,0826.59%31,598
Greene4,87455.68%3,83243.78%470.54%1,04211.90%8,753
Guilford107,29437.72%173,08660.84%4,1061.44%-65,792-23.12%284,486
Halifax10,08039.13%15,54560.35%1340.52%-5,465-21.22%25,759
Harnett35,17760.35%22,09337.90%1,0231.75%13,08422.45%58,293
Haywood22,83462.49%13,14435.97%5641.54%9,69026.52%36,542
Henderson40,03258.55%27,21139.80%1,1281.65%12,82118.75%68,371
Hertford3,47932.72%7,09766.74%580.54%-3,618-34.02%10,634
Hoke9,45343.69%11,80454.55%3821.76%-2,351-10.86%21,639
Hyde1,41856.90%1,04641.97%281.13%37214.93%2,492
Iredell67,01065.46%33,88833.10%1,4731.44%33,12232.36%102,371
Jackson11,35653.00%9,59144.76%4812.24%1,7658.24%21,428
Johnston68,35361.38%41,25737.05%1,7471.57%27,09624.33%111,357
Jones3,28059.37%2,19739.76%480.87%1,08319.61%5,525
Lee16,46956.77%12,14341.86%3961.37%4,32614.91%29,008
Lenoir14,59051.36%13,60547.89%2140.75%9853.47%28,409
Lincoln36,34172.37%13,27426.43%6021.20%23,06745.94%50,217
Macon14,21168.51%6,23030.03%3021.46%7,98138.48%20,743
Madison7,97961.02%4,90137.48%1961.50%3,07823.54%13,076
Martin6,53252.09%5,91147.14%970.77%6214.95%12,540
McDowell16,88373.39%5,83225.35%2881.26%11,05148.04%23,003
Mecklenburg179,21131.60%378,10766.68%9,7351.72%-198,896-35.08%567,053
Mitchell7,09078.42%1,86720.65%840.93%5,22357.77%9,041
Montgomery8,41165.46%4,32733.68%1110.86%4,08431.78%12,849
Moore36,76463.02%20,77935.62%7961.36%15,98527.40%58,339
Nash25,82749.41%25,94749.64%4970.95%-120-0.23%52,271
New Hanover63,33148.04%66,13850.17%2,3611.79%-2,807-2.13%131,830
Northampton3,98939.46%6,06960.03%520.51%-2,080-20.57%10,110
Onslow46,07863.79%24,26633.59%1,8912.62%21,81230.20%72,235
Orange20,17623.74%63,59474.82%1,2271.44%-43,418-51.08%84,997
Pamlico4,84963.54%2,71335.55%690.91%2,13627.99%7,631
Pasquotank9,77049.10%9,83249.41%2951.49%-62-0.31%19,897
Pender21,95664.26%11,72334.31%4901.43%10,23329.95%34,169
Perquimans4,90365.51%2,49233.30%891.19%2,41132.21%7,484
Person13,18460.22%8,46538.66%2451.12%4,71921.56%21,894
Pitt38,98244.51%47,25253.96%1,3391.53%-8,270-9.45%87,573
Polk7,68962.22%4,51836.56%1511.22%3,17125.66%12,358
Randolph56,89477.60%15,61821.30%8041.10%41,27656.30%73,316
Richmond11,83056.98%8,75442.16%1790.86%3,07614.82%20,763
Robeson27,80658.93%19,02040.31%3620.76%8,78618.62%47,188
Rockingham31,30165.47%15,99233.45%5161.08%15,30932.02%47,809
Rowan49,29767.15%23,11431.49%9971.36%26,18335.66%73,408
Rutherford24,89172.30%9,13526.53%4031.17%15,75645.77%34,429
Sampson17,41160.84%10,96638.32%2410.84%6,44522.52%28,618
Scotland7,47350.58%7,18648.64%1160.78%2871.94%14,775
Stanly25,45875.01%8,12923.95%3521.04%17,32951.06%33,939
Stokes20,14478.37%5,28620.57%2731.06%14,85857.80%25,703
Surry27,53875.16%8,72123.80%3791.04%18,81751.36%36,638
Swain4,16158.87%2,78039.33%1271.80%1,38119.54%7,068
Transylvania11,63657.03%8,44441.38%3241.59%3,19215.65%20,404
Tyrrell1,04457.46%75841.72%150.82%28615.74%1,817
Union80,38261.36%48,72537.19%1,9041.45%31,65724.17%131,011
Vance8,39139.96%12,43159.20%1770.84%-4,040-19.24%20,999
Wake226,19735.80%393,33662.25%12,2971.95%-167,139-26.45%631,830
Warren3,75236.45%6,40062.18%1411.37%-2,648-25.73%10,293
Washington2,78144.82%3,39654.73%280.45%-615-9.91%6,205
Watauga14,45144.85%17,12253.14%6472.01%-2,671-8.29%32,220
Wayne30,70955.29%24,21543.60%6131.11%6,49411.69%55,537
Wilkes27,59277.80%7,51121.18%3631.02%20,08156.62%35,466
Wilson19,58148.07%20,75450.95%4000.98%-1,173-2.88%40,735
Yadkin15,93379.97%3,76318.89%2271.14%12,17061.08%19,923
Yancey7,51666.21%3,68832.49%1481.30%3,82833.72%11,352
Totals2,758,77549.93%2,684,29248.59%81,7371.48%74,4831.34%5,524,804
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won eight of 13 congressional districts.[191]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st45%54%G. K. Butterfield
2nd34%64%George Holding
Deborah K. Ross
3rd61%38%Greg Murphy
4th32%66%David Price
5th67%32%Virginia Foxx
6th37%61%Mark Walker
Kathy Manning
7th58%41%David Rouzer
8th52%46%Richard Hudson
9th53%45%Dan Bishop
10th67%31%Patrick McHenry
11th55%43%Madison Cawthorn
12th28%70%Alma Adams
13th67%32%Ted Budd

Analysis

[edit]

The rural-urban divide was even more prevalent in North Carolina this election than in past elections. Biden carried eight of North Carolina's ten largest counties (losing only theCharlotte-area suburban counties ofUnion andGaston), and overperformed Obama's 2008 margin in the six largest:Wake (Raleigh),Mecklenburg (Charlotte),Guilford (Greensboro),Forsyth (Winston-Salem),Durham (Durham), andBuncombe (Asheville), in which he received 62%, 67%, 61%, 56%, 80%, and 60% of the vote, respectively.[192] Biden furthermore became the first Democrat to carryNew Hanover County, home ofWilmington, since1976. He also flippedNash County, which had last voted for Obama in 2012, before switching to Trump in 2016, back to the Democratic column. Biden held Trump to a single-digit margin in the Charlotte-area suburban county ofCabarrus, the first time since 1976 that the Republican margin in this county has been less than 10%.

Conversely, Trump held or outperformed his 2016 margin inRobeson,Bladen,Martin,Granville andGates counties, all counties that had been reliably Democratic in the 20th century and which had voted for Obama twice before flipping to Trump in 2016. Biden thereby became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without Robeson County, the largest county in theLumber River region of the state and the county which had givenJimmy Carter his largest raw vote margin in the state in both1976 and1980. Trump picked off neighboringScotland County, one of only 15 counties he flipped nationally, becoming the first Republican to carry it sinceRonald Reagan in1984 and making Biden the first Democrat to win without Scotland since the county's creation in 1899. Biden also became the first Democrat to win the White House withoutGranville andGates counties sinceGrover Cleveland in1892, the first sinceCleveland in1884 to win withoutBladen County, the first sinceJames Buchanan in1856 to win withoutRichmond County and the first ever to win withoutMartin County.[citation needed]

Edison exit polls

[edit]
2020 presidential election in North Carolina by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[193][194]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of

total vote

Total vote48.5949.93100
Ideology
Liberals93620
Moderates663239
Conservatives99040
Party
Democrats97334
Republicans49637
Independents504630
Gender
Men455444
Women534656
Race/ethnicity
White336665
Black92723
Latino57425
Asian––2
Other56405
Age
18–24 years old55438
25–29 years old59366
30–39 years old574314
40–49 years old524616
50–64 years old465331
65 and older405924
Sexual orientation
LGBT76225
Not LGBT475295
Education
High school or less386218
Somecollege education435627
Associate degree504818
Bachelor's degree554422
Postgraduate degree643514
Income
Under $30,000514715
$30,000–49,999544422
$50,000–99,999494936
$100,000–199,999475222
Over $200,00047535
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality94521
Coronavirus841514
Economy168235
Crime and safety118812
Health care663312
Region
East455423
Research Triangle623722
Charlotte Area554418
Piedmont/Central445420
West366217
Area type
Urban692933
Suburban396040
Rural405927
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago178245
Worse than four years ago91720
About the same693034

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

General footnotes

  1. ^There were three states in which Biden won with under 50% of the vote – Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
  2. ^abcCandidate withdrew during early voting, shortly before the date of the election.
  3. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  6. ^abcdefghStandard VI response
  7. ^"Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  8. ^abcdIf only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  9. ^abc"Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  10. ^Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  11. ^abcdefg"Some other candidate" with 2%
  12. ^"Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  13. ^abcdefWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
  14. ^ab"Someone else" with 6%
  15. ^"None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  16. ^ab"Someone else" with 1%
  17. ^"Some other candidate" with 2%; did/would not vote and "Refused" with 0%
  18. ^abNo voters
  19. ^Blankenship (C) with 2%
  20. ^ab"Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  21. ^abcdIncludes "Refused"
  22. ^abc"Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  23. ^abc"Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  24. ^abc"Another candidate" with 3%
  25. ^abResults generated with high Democratic turnout model
  26. ^abResults generated with high Republican turnout model
  27. ^"Another candidate" with 1%
  28. ^Blankenship (C) with no voters
  29. ^"Other third party" with 2%
  30. ^"Someone else" with 0.6%; Blankenship (C) with 0.2%
  31. ^abBlankenship (C) with 0%
  32. ^abcdefAdditional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. ^"Some other candidate" with 1%; did/would not vote and "Refused" with 0%
  34. ^ab"Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
  35. ^If only Biden and Trump were candidates
  36. ^ab"Someone else" with 2%
  37. ^"Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  38. ^Blankenship (C), "No one" and "Other candidate" with no voters
  39. ^With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  40. ^With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  41. ^"Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  42. ^ab"Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  43. ^"Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
  44. ^abc"Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  45. ^"Someone else/third party" with 2%
  46. ^"Another candidate" with 0%
  47. ^With only Biden, Trump and "another candidate" as options
  48. ^"Another candidate" with 2%
  49. ^abBlankenship (C) with 1%
  50. ^"Refused" with 1.4%; "Other" with 0.4%; Blankenship (C) with no voters
  51. ^"None of these" and "Other" with 0%; Blankenship (C) with no voters
  52. ^"Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "refused" with 0%
  53. ^"Someone else" with 1%; Blankenship (C) with 0.5%
  54. ^"Some other candidate" with 3%
  55. ^Would not vote with 1%
  56. ^Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  57. ^"Other/not sure" with 4%
  58. ^"No one" with 1%; Blankenship and "Other candidate" with <1%
  59. ^With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  60. ^With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  61. ^Blankenship (C) and "Other" with 0%
  62. ^Blankenship (C) and would not vote with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  63. ^"Other candidate" with 3%
  64. ^Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  65. ^"Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  66. ^"Third party candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  67. ^"Some other candidate" with 7%
  68. ^"Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  69. ^"Another candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  70. ^"Third party/write-in" with 3%
  71. ^"Other candidate" with 7%
  72. ^"Someone else" with 4%
  73. ^"Someone else" with 5%
  74. ^abcdeThe poll does not have a separate listing for this entry, which is instead added into the 'Other' grouping.
  75. ^Refused/no answer with 0.2%
  76. ^abcdRefused/no answer with 0.1%
  77. ^"Other/it depends" with 6%; "Don't know" with 3%
  78. ^"It is time for someone else to be President" with 51% as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected if he is the Republican nominee"

Partisan clients

  1. ^Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  2. ^abcThe Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  3. ^Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  4. ^Piedmont Rising is a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  5. ^The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^The founder of this poll's sponsor had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  7. ^This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  8. ^AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  9. ^This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  10. ^Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization
  11. ^Poll sponsored by theNorth Carolina Republican Party
  12. ^Poll sponsored by the Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank
  13. ^abPoll sponsored by End Citizens United, a group that has exclusively endorsed Democrats

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[edit]
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  65. ^Citizen Data
  66. ^Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
  67. ^Ipsos/Reuters
  68. ^Meredith College
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  76. ^Siena College/NYT Upshot
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  88. ^Change Research/CNBC
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  90. ^ALG Research/Piedmont Rising
  91. ^Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign
  92. ^Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  93. ^YouGov/CBS
  94. ^YouGov/UMass Lowell
  95. ^Meredith College
  96. ^Change Research/CNBC
  97. ^Harper Polling/Civitas (R)
  98. ^Emerson College
  99. ^Siena College/NYT Upshot
  100. ^Ipsos/Reuters
  101. ^Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  102. ^Suffolk University/USA Today
  103. ^SurveyUSA/WRAL TV
  104. ^CNN/SSRS
  105. ^Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report
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  107. ^Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports
  108. ^Benenson Strategy Group/GS Group/AARP
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Further reading

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