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2020 United States presidential election in New York

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2020 United States presidential election.
2020 United States presidential election in New York

← 2016November 3, 20202024 →
Turnout69.7% (Increase 2.4pp)
 
NomineeJoe BidenDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
AllianceWorking FamiliesConservative
Home stateDelawareFlorida
Running mateKamala HarrisMike Pence
Electoral vote290
Popular vote5,244,8863,251,997
Percentage60.87%37.74%

County results
Congressional district results
Municipality results
Precinct results

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in New York State
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
New York gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
State Comptroller elections
State Senate elections
State Assembly elections
State elections by year
Mayoral elections

Pre-consolidation:

Post-consolidation:

City Council elections

Pre-consolidation:

Post-consolidation:

Public Advocate elections
Comptroller elections
Borough president elections
County Executive elections
County Executive elections

The2020 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[1]New York voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California SenatorKamala Harris.[2] New York had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3] Trump announced that Florida would be his home state for this election, rather than New York as it had been previously.[4] This was the first presidential election in New York to allow no-excuse absentee voting.[5]

Despite Donald Trump's longtime association with the state, New York was considered to be a state Biden would win or a safeblue state. Statewide elections in New York are dominated by New York City, the most populated city in the US and a Democratic stronghold home to around 43% of the state's population.[6] Biden's victory came from overwhelming strength withBlack andHispanicvoters, especially those fromNew York City,[7] as well as strong support throughout the state, particularly in suburban areas such asWestchester andNassau counties, from college-educated, suburban, Hispanic,Asian, andMultiracial voters.

Biden was immediately declared the winner of New York's electoral votes when polls closed on Election Day. Biden slightly outperformed Hillary Clinton's margin of victory from 4 years earlier by 0.48% and flipped 4 counties that previously voted for Trump. Biden's 5,244,886 vote total is the highest vote total for a presidential candidate in New York.

New York voted 19% more Democratic than the national average. This was the first time since 1992 thatOrange,Oswego,Washington,Madison, andWarren counties voted for the losing presidential candidate, as well as the first since 1976 that a Democrat won withoutCayuga,Cortland,Otsego,Seneca,Franklin,Niagara, andSt. Lawrence counties, and the first since 1960 that a Democrat won withoutSullivan County.

Primary elections

[edit]

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 28, New York State elections officials moved the primary date to June 23 due to concerns over theCOVID-19 pandemic.[8]

Canceled Republican primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On March 3, 2020, theNew York Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to submit the required number of names of his 162 total delegates, both the 94 primary ones and the alternates. Among Trump's major challengers,Bill Weld only submitted about half of his required delegates, and neitherRocky De La Fuente norJoe Walsh sent in any names at all. With the cancellation, Trump was automatically able to send his 94 New York pledged delegates to the national convention.[9][10]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 New York Democratic presidential primary

On April 27, 2020, New York State elections officials had decided to cancel the state's Democratic primary altogether, citing the fact that formerVice PresidentJoe Biden was the only major candidate left in the race after all the others had suspended their campaigns, and canceling it would save the state millions of dollars from printing the extra sheet on the ballot.[11] However, on May 5, a federal judge ruled that the Democratic primary must proceed on June 23 after a suit made by former presidential primary candidateAndrew Yang.[12]

Among the other major candidates were entrepreneurAndrew Yang,Kirsten Gillibrand, one of New York's two current senators, andBill de Blasio, themayor of New York City. However, on August 29, 2019, Gillibrand dropped out of the race. Bill de Blasio as well dropped out on September 20, 2019, after failing to qualify for the fourth Democratic debate.

Results

This section is an excerpt from2020 New York Democratic presidential primary § Results.[edit]
2020 New York Democratic presidential primary[13]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[14]
Joe Biden1,136,67964.62230
Bernie Sanders(withdrawn)285,90816.2544
Elizabeth Warren(withdrawn)82,9174.71
Michael Bloomberg(withdrawn)39,4332.24
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)22,9271.30
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)22,6861.29
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)11,0280.63
Tulsi Gabbard(withdrawn)9,0830.52
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)3,0400.17
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)2,9320.17
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)2,2990.13
Blank ballots /Void ballots[a]140,1077.96
Total1,759,039100%274

Conservative

[edit]

TheConservative Party of New York State cross-endorsed the Republican ticket, nominating Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.[15]

Working Families

[edit]

TheWorking Families Party cross-endorsed the Democratic ticket, nominating Joe Biden for president and Kamala Harris for vice president.[16] Several prominent Democrats, including SenatorsBernie Sanders,Elizabeth Warren andKirsten Gillibrand, U.S. RepresentativeAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Senate Minority LeaderChuck Schumer encouraged voting for Biden and Harris on the WFP line, in order for the party to keep ballot access.[17]

Green

[edit]

TheGreen Party of New York nominated the nationalGreen Party ticket;Howie Hawkins for president andAngela Nicole Walker for vice president.

Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article:2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 New York Libertarian presidential primary

April 28, 20202024 →
← CT
NE →
 
CandidateJacob Hornberger
Home stateVirginia
Delegate count27
Popular voteDefault winner

Future of Freedom Foundation Founder Jacob Hornberger was the sole candidate to qualify for the New York primary ballot. Therefore, in accordance with state law, he was declared the winner of the primary by default. As the winner of the primary,Libertarian Party of New York rules permitted Hornberger to choose 27 of the state's 48 unbound delegates to the2020 Libertarian National Convention. The Libertarian Party of New York was the only Libertarian state affiliate to choose any of its delegates on the basis of its presidential primary or caucus.[18]

Independence

[edit]

TheIndependence Party of New York nominated independent candidatesBrock Pierce for president and Karla Ballard for vice president.[19]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[20]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
Inside Elections[21]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
Politico[23]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
RCP[24]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
Niskanen[25]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
CNN[26]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
The Economist[27]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
CBS News[28]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
270towin[29]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
ABC News[30]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
NPR[31]Likely DNovember 3, 2020
NBC News[32]Safe DNovember 3, 2020
538[33]Safe DNovember 3, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
Real Clear Politics[34]April 30 – September 29, 2020November 3, 202059.7%31.0%9.3%Biden +28.7
FiveThirtyEight[35]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202062.3%32.9%4.8%Biden +29.4
Average61.0%32.0%7.1%Biden +29.1

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20206,548 (LV)± 2%35%[d]63%
Research Co.[37]Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%34%64%--2%[e]4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36]Oct 1–28, 202010,220 (LV)34%63%--
Swayable[38]Oct 23–26, 2020495 (LV)± 5.8%33%65%1%1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36]Sep 1–30, 202010,007 (LV)34%64%--2%
Siena College[39]Sep 27–29, 2020504 (LV)± 4.4%29%61%0%1%2%[f]7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36]Aug 1–31, 20209,969 (LV)34%64%--2%
Public Policy Polling[40]Aug 20–22, 20201,029 (V)± 3.1%32%63%--5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36]Jul 1–31, 202010,280 (LV)34%63%--2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[36]Jun 8–30, 20204,555 (LV)33%65%--2%
Siena College[41]Jun 23–25, 2020806 (RV)± 3.9%32%57%--10%
Siena College[42]May 17–21, 2020767 (RV)± 3.7%32%57%--11%
Quinnipiac University[43]Apr 30 – May 4, 2020915 (RV)± 3.2%32%55%--5%[g]8%
Siena College[44]Apr 19–23, 2020803 (RV)± 3.7%29%65%--6%
Siena College[45]Mar 22–26, 2020566 (RV)± 4.5%33%58%--10%
Siena College[46]Feb 16–20, 2020658 (RV)± 4.5%36%55%--5%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
OtherUndecided
Siena College[46]Feb 16–20, 2020658 (RV)± 4.5%33%58%9%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
OtherUndecided
Siena College[46]Feb 16–20, 2020658 (RV)± 4.5%37%56%7%

with Donald Trump and Bill de Blasio

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bill
de Blasio (D)
OtherUndecided
Siena College[47]Jun 2–6, 2019812 (RV)± 4.1%36%48%13%3%

with Donald Trump and Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)
OtherUndecided
Siena College[47]Jun 2–6, 2019812 (RV)± 4.1%34%58%5%3%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
OtherUndecided
Siena College[46]Feb 16–20, 2020658 (RV)± 4.5%37%53%10%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
OtherUndecided
Siena College[46]Feb 16–20, 2020658 (RV)± 4.5%38%56%7%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
OtherUndecided
Siena College[46]Feb 16–20, 2020658 (RV)± 4.5%39%53%8%

Electoral slates

[edit]

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in theElectoral College should their candidate win the state:[48]

Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Working Families Party
Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party
Conservative Party
Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Howie Hawkins and
Angela Walker
Green Party
Brock Pierce and
Karla Ballard
Independence Party
June O'Neill
Xiao Wang
Katherine M. Sheehan
Thomas J. Garry
Lovely Warren
Gary S. LaBarbera
Stuart H. Applebaum
Mary Sullivan
George K. Gresham
Randi Weingarten
Mario F. Cilento
Alphonso David
Hazel Nell Dukes
Christine Quinn
Byron Brown
Corey Johnson
Scott Stringer
Andrea Stewart-Cousins
Carl Heastie
Jay Jacobs
Letitia James
Thomas DiNapoli
Kathy Hochul
Andrew Cuomo
Hillary Clinton
Bill Clinton
Rubén Díaz Jr.
Judith Hunter
Anastasia Somoza
Brendan Lantry
Jesus Garcia
Susan McNeil
Joseph Cairo
William Napier
Karl Simmeth
Christine Benedict
Joann Ariola
Carl Zeilman
Jennifer Saul Rich
Charlie Joyce
Adrian Anderson
Rob Ortt
Will Barclay
John Burnett
Chloe Sun
Elie Hirschfeld
Yechezkel Moskowitz
Shaun Marie Levine
Christopher Kendall
Francis Vella-Marrone
Andrea Catsimatidis
John Gereau
Rodney Strange
Todd Rouse
Trisha Turner
Robert Keis
Nick Langworthy
Tom Dadey
Daniel P. Donnelly
Duane J. Whitmer
Robert M. Arrigo
Mark N. Axinn
Erin M. Becker
Rachel E. Becker
Richard Bell
Kari R. Bittner
Mark S. Braiman
Jay A. Carr
Tucker C. Coburn
Anthony D'Orazio
Kevin A. Wilson
Milva E. Dordal
Pietro S. Geraci
Paul M. Grindle
Mark E. Glogowski
Shawn Hannon
Andrew M. Kolstee
Peyton D. Kunselman
Brandon G. Lyon
Leonard E. Morlock
Lora L. Newell
Gary Popkin
Thomas D. Quiter
Ilya Schwartzburg
Paul C. Sechrist
Larry Sharpe
William C. Anderson
Stephen Bloom
Peter A. Lavenia
Cassandra J. Lems
Paul W. Gilman
Darin Robbins
Barbara A. Kidney
Joseph R. Naham
Michael E. O'Neil
Eric M. Jones
Carol S. Przybylak
Tatianna M. Moragne
James R. Brown III
James McCabe
Candace Carponter
Michael D. Emperor
Jennifer R. White
Allan D. Hunter
Mary B. House
Serena L. Seals
David Sutliff-Atias
Craig A. Seeman
Daneilla Liebling
Adrienne R. Craig-Williams
Christopher J. Archer
Claudia Flanagan
Gil Obler
Debra A. Rosario
Gloria Mattera
David L. Giannascoli
Kenneth Bayne
Scott R. Major
Robert G. Pilnick
Barbara Pilnick
Gary P. Newman
Arthur Abbate
Joseph W. Fuller
Maryann H. Major
Andrew J. Bogardt
Anna C. Bogardt
Robert J. Bogardt
Trisha L. Sterling
Thomas Hatfield
Thomas A. Connolly
Atef S. Zeina
Lee Kolesnikoff
Joseph L. Baruth
Paul E. Caputo
Edward G. Miller
Thomas S. Connolly
Dennis R. Zack
Michael Amo
Richard S. Bellando
Maryellen Bellando
William Bogardt
Teresa Bogardt
Frank M. MacKay
Kristin A. MacKay
Carolyn P. Major

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in New York[49]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
4,858,27356.38%−0.34%
Working FamiliesJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
386,6134.48%+2.65%
TotalJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
5,244,88660.87%+1.85%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence
2,955,66234.30%+1.57%
ConservativeDonald Trump
Mike Pence
296,3353.44%−0.34%
TotalDonald Trump
Mike Pence
3,251,99737.74%+1.22%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
60,3830.70%−0.05%
GreenHowie Hawkins
Angela Walker
32,8320.38%−1.02%
IndependenceBrock Pierce
Karla Ballard
22,6560.26%−1.29%
Write-in4,1070.04%-0.75%
Total votes8,616,861100.00%+11.60%

New York City results

[edit]
2020 presidential election in New York CityManhattanThe BronxBrooklynQueensStaten IslandTotal
Democratic-
Working Families
Joe Biden603,040355,374703,310569,03890,9972,321,75976.2%
86.4%83.3%76.8%72.0%42.0%
Republican-
Conservative
Donald Trump85,18567,740202,772212,665123,320691,68222.7%
12.2%15.9%22.1%26.9%56.9%
OthersOthers9,5883,5799,9278,2782,45033,8221.1%
1.4%0.9%1.1%1.1%1.1%
Total697,813426,693916,009789,981216,7673,047,263100.00%

By New York City Council district

[edit]
2020 presidential election New York City Council map

Biden won 47 of 51New York City Council districts, including one held by a Republican, while Trump won four districts, including two held by Democrats.[50]

DistrictBidenTrumpCity council member
1st83.5%14.9%Margaret Chin
2nd86.9%11.7%Carlina Rivera
3rd87.8%10.7%Corey Johnson
4th80.4%18.0%Keith Powers
5th82.5%16.0%Ben Kallos
6th88.5%10.2%Helen Rosenthal
7th89.8%9.0%Mark Levine
8th87.5%11.5%Diana Ayala
9th93.4%5.5%Bill Perkins
10th84.5%14.3%Ydanis Rodriguez
11th79.4%19.3%Andrew Cohen
12th92.2%7.2%Andy King
13th64.7%34.2%Mark Gjonaj
14th83.3%16.0%Fernando Cabrera
15th84.8%14.3%Ritchie Torres
16th87.2%12.1%Vanessa Gibson
17th87.1%12.2%Rafael Salamanca
18th86.7%12.6%Rubén Díaz Sr.
19th54.4%44.3%Paul Vallone
20th63.7%35.2%Peter Koo
21st77.5%21.7%Francisco Moya
22nd75.3%23.2%Costa Constantinides
23rd69.5%29.4%Barry Grodenchik
24th67.3%31.7%Rory Lancman
25th73.8%25.1%Daniel Dromm
26th80.0%18.6%Jimmy Van Bramer
27th93.1%6.3%Daneek Miller
28th86.5%12.9%Adrienne Adams
29th65.7%33.1%Karen Koslowitz
30th54.4%44.3%Robert Holden
31st87.4%11.9%Donovan Richards
32nd57.4%41.6%Eric Ulrich
33rd78.8%20.0%Stephen Levin
34th86.5%12.0%Antonio Reynoso
35th91.5%7.4%Laurie Cumbo
36th94.6%4.1%Robert Cornegy
37th87.1%11.7%Darma Diaz
38th76.5%22.1%Carlos Menchaca
39th84.7%14.1%Brad Lander
40th91.9%7.1%Mathieu Eugene
41st94.3%5.0%Alicka Ampry-Samuel
42nd92.9%6.6%Inez Barron
43rd57.0%41.4%Justin Brannan
44th25.1%74.0%Kalman Yeger
45th82.0%17.2%Farah Louis
46th75.3%23.8%Alan Maisel
47th50.2%48.8%Ari Kagan
48th33.8%65.1%Chaim Deutsch
49th67.0%31.7%Debi Rose
50th36.8%62.0%Steven Matteo
51st27.2%71.8%Joe Borelli

By county

[edit]
CountyJoe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Albany99,47464.55%51,08133.15%3,5462.30%48,39331.40%154,101
Allegany6,04829.10%14,13568.02%5992.88%-8,087-38.92%20,782
Bronx355,37483.29%67,74015.88%3,5790.83%287,63467.41%426,693
Broome47,00250.53%43,79147.08%2,2232.39%3,2113.45%93,016
Cattaraugus11,87934.17%22,15563.74%7262.09%-10,276-29.57%34,760
Cayuga16,35944.44%19,63253.33%8182.23%-3,273-8.89%36,809
Chautauqua23,08838.93%34,85358.77%1,3642.30%-11,765-19.84%59,305
Chemung16,63642.21%21,92255.63%8522.16%-5,286-13.42%39,410
Chenango8,30037.14%13,49660.38%5542.48%-5,196-23.24%22,350
Clinton18,36451.82%16,51446.60%5591.58%1,8505.22%35,437
Columbia20,38657.25%14,46440.62%7602.13%5,92216.63%35,610
Cortland10,37047.83%10,78949.77%5202.40%-419-1.94%21,679
Delaware9,14339.71%13,38758.14%4952.15%-4,244-18.43%23,025
Dutchess81,44353.89%66,87244.25%2,8071.86%14,5719.64%151,122
Erie267,27056.46%197,55241.73%8,5961.81%69,71814.73%473,418
Essex9,95051.61%8,98246.59%3481.80%9685.02%19,280
Franklin9,25348.02%9,66850.18%3471.80%-415-2.16%19,268
Fulton7,93133.44%15,37864.84%4091.72%-7,447-31.40%23,718
Genesee9,62532.94%18,87664.61%7162.45%-9,251-31.67%29,217
Greene10,34641.07%14,27156.64%5772.29%-3,925-15.57%25,194
Hamilton1,17834.05%2,22564.31%571.64%-1,047-30.26%3,460
Herkimer9,93933.90%18,87164.36%5121.74%-8,932-30.46%29,322
Jefferson17,30739.46%25,62958.44%9192.10%-8,322-18.98%43,855
Kings703,31076.78%202,77222.14%9,9271.08%500,53854.64%916,009
Lewis3,82329.49%8,89068.57%2511.94%-5,067-39.08%12,964
Livingston12,47739.73%18,18257.90%7422.37%-5,705-18.17%31,401
Madison14,80543.50%18,40954.09%8212.41%-3,604-10.59%34,035
Monroe225,74659.25%145,66138.23%9,5822.52%80,08521.02%380,989
Montgomery7,97737.69%12,74560.22%4422.09%-4,768-22.53%21,164
Nassau396,50454.11%326,71644.59%9,5361.30%69,7889.52%732,756
New York603,04086.42%85,18512.21%9,5881.37%517,85574.21%697,813
Niagara46,02944.21%56,06853.85%2,0261.94%-10,039-9.64%104,123
Oneida41,97341.15%57,86056.73%2,1632.12%-15,887-15.58%101,996
Onondaga138,99158.88%91,71538.85%5,3622.27%47,27620.03%236,068
Ontario28,74948.48%28,78248.54%1,7692.98%-33-0.06%59,300
Orange84,95549.24%85,06849.30%2,5161.46%-113-0.06%172,539
Orleans5,58730.78%12,12666.80%4412.42%-6,539-36.02%18,154
Oswego21,14538.80%32,14258.98%1,2112.22%-10,997-20.18%54,498
Otsego12,97546.21%14,38251.22%7232.57%-1,407-5.01%28,080
Putnam24,95545.27%29,28353.12%8841.61%-4,328-7.85%55,122
Queens569,03872.03%212,66526.92%8,2781.05%356,37345.11%789,981
Rensselaer40,96951.59%36,50045.96%1,9402.45%4,4695.63%79,409
Richmond90,99741.98%123,32056.89%2,4501.13%-32,323-14.91%216,767
Rockland75,80250.30%73,18648.56%1,7141.14%2,6161.74%150,702
Saratoga68,47151.62%61,30546.21%2,8792.17%7,1665.41%132,655
Schenectady42,46556.58%30,74140.96%1,8412.46%11,72415.62%75,047
Schoharie5,34534.02%9,90363.04%4622.94%-4,558-29.02%15,710
Schuyler3,90339.97%5,62157.56%2422.47%-1,718-17.59%9,766
Seneca6,91444.23%8,32953.28%3892.49%-1,415-9.05%15,632
St. Lawrence19,36143.11%24,60854.80%9382.09%-5,247-11.69%44,907
Steuben15,79034.19%29,47463.83%9151.98%-13,684-29.64%46,179
Suffolk381,02149.27%381,25349.30%11,0131.43%-232-0.03%773,287
Sullivan15,48944.71%18,66553.87%4931.42%-3,176-9.16%34,647
Tioga9,63438.48%14,79159.08%6112.44%-5,157-20.60%25,036
Tompkins33,61973.51%11,09624.26%1,0202.23%22,52349.25%45,735
Ulster57,97059.51%37,59038.59%1,8601.90%20,38020.92%97,420
Warren17,64248.80%17,69948.96%8082.24%-57-0.16%36,149
Washington11,56541.10%15,94156.65%6322.25%-4,376-15.55%28,138
Wayne17,45639.03%26,20458.59%1,0672.38%-8,748-19.56%44,727
Westchester312,43767.57%144,73131.30%5,1961.13%167,70636.27%462,364
Wyoming5,07326.11%13,89871.52%4612.37%-8,825-45.41%19,432
Yates4,21939.35%6,20857.89%2962.76%-1,989-18.54%10,723
Totals5,244,88660.76%3,251,99737.67%135,3721.57%1,992,88923.09%8,632,255
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden won 20 of 27 congressional districts, including one held by a Republican.[51]

DistrictBidenTrumpRepresentative
1st47.3%51.5%Lee Zeldin
2nd47.4%51.4%Andrew Garbarino
3rd54.7%44.3%Thomas Suozzi
4th55.6%43.4%Kathleen Rice
5th83.3%16.2%Gregory Meeks
6th61.8%37.4%Grace Meng
7th81.9%17.3%Nydia Velázquez
8th82.9%16.5%Hakeem Jeffries
9th81.4%17.8%Yvette Clarke
10th76.1%22.9%Jerry Nadler
11th44.3%54.8%Nicole Malliotakis
12th84.1%14.8%Carolyn Maloney
13th88.2%11.1%Adriano Espaillat
14th73.7%25.9%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
15th86.4%13%Ritchie Torres
16th75.3%23.8%Jamaal Bowman
17th59.6%39.4%Mondaire Jones
18th51.8%46.8%Sean Patrick Maloney
19th49.8%48.3%Antonio Delgado
20th59.3%38.7%Paul Tonko
21st43.8%54.2%Elise Stefanik
22nd43.2%54.7%Claudia Tenney
23rd43.3%54.5%Tom Reed
24th53.4%44.4%John Katko
25th60.1%37.8%Joe Morelle
26th62.6%35.6%Brian Higgins
27th41.1%56.8%Chris Jacobs

Analysis

[edit]
Waiting in line for early voting

New York continued its streak as a solidlyblue state, with Biden winning 60.87% of the vote to Trump's 37.74%, a Democratic victory margin of 23.13%. Due to a decrease in third-party voting, both candidates increased their party's vote share from2016, though Biden's margin of victory was slightly wider thanHillary Clinton's. Statewide elections in New York are heavily influenced by New York City, a Democratic stronghold which tends to provide sizable margins to the Democratic Party though every Democratic nominee since Bill Clinton's first run (1992) still would have won statewide if it were excluded. Biden continued this streak as he would have won upstate New York (excluding New York City's results), albeit by a much smaller 52.4% to 45.9% margin, or 2,923,127 votes to Trump's 2,561,315.

New York's inexperience processing a large number of mail ballots, having only legalized no-excuse absentee voting in 2019,[5][52] led to weekslong delays in counting them.[53] Over two million ballots and over 20% of the votes were cast by mail.[54] New York failed to meet its November 28 deadline to certify the election, with hundreds of thousands of votes still uncounted.[55] State SenatorMichael Gianaris commented, "if we were aswing state in this presidential election, this would be a national scandal".[53] New York's voting tabulation was updated on March 15, 2021.

The delay in the counting of mail-in ballots wrongly made it seem at first that Biden had underperformed Hillary Clinton in 2016, a phenomenon referred to as a "red mirage."[56] However, when all the votes were counted, Biden outperformed Clinton's margin over Trump by about 0.6 percentage points. This was due to a major improvement acrossUpstate New York and onLong Island. Meanwhile, four of New York City's five boroughs shifted towards Trump (with the exception ofStaten Island, which shifted left by less than 1%).

Donald Trump is the first Republican to receive 3 million or more raw votes in New York sinceGeorge H. W. Bush in1988.

Biden flipped four counties that Trump won in 2016:Broome,Essex,Rensselaer, andSaratoga.[57][58]Biden also came very close to flipping an additional six counties, as he lostCortland County by 419 votes,Franklin County by 415 votes,Ontario County by 33 votes,Orange County by 113 votes,Suffolk County by 232 votes, andWarren County by just 57 votes.[59] Trump's narrow victories in these counties meant that they were decided by a combined total of just 1,269 votes out of more than 1 million votes cast across all six counties.According to exit polls byCNN, Biden won 96% of Democrats, who were 41% of the electorate, 59% of Independents, who made up 32% of voters, and 21% of Republicans, who made up 27% of the vote.[60]

Biden dominated coreDemocratic constituencies in New York City, winning 76% of the city's vote.[61] Statewide, Biden won 94% ofBlack voters and 76% ofLatino voters.[61] In urbanDominican neighborhoods, Trump reached only 15% of the vote to Biden's 85%.[62] Biden also won by 18 points in theHudson Valley and urbanUpstate counties. Trump's core support base came from rural Upstate counties. However, Trump made strong inroads withOrthodox Jewish neighborhoods of New York City[63][64] and inHasidic Jewish communities inRockland County.[65] The shift is attributed to Trump's strongpro-Israel stance as president.[63] New York was one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others beingCalifornia,Maryland,Massachusetts andIllinois.

Edison exit polls

[edit]
2020 presidential election in New York by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[66][67]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of

total vote

Total vote60.8737.74100
Ideology
Liberals861333
Moderates633544
Conservatives217923
Party
Democrats97339
Republicans188130
Independents574031
Gender
Men603948
Women623752
Race/ethnicity
White504860
Black94612
Latino762216
Asian8
Other4
Age
18–29 years old653317
30–39 years old643314
40–49 years old682920
50–64 years old574330
65 and older514719
Sexual orientation
LGBT4
Not LGBT603796
Education
High school or less495116
Somecollege education653321
Associate degree376115
Bachelor's degree702924
Postgraduate degree712623
Region
New York City762236
Long Island17
Hudson Valley584017
UrbanUpstate584115
Rural Upstate465315
Area type
Urban732648
Suburban504944
Rural8

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^135,486 blank and 4,621 void ballots
  2. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^abcdefghKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^"Someone else" with 2%
  6. ^Pierce (I) with 2%, "someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  7. ^"Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%

References

[edit]
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  15. ^Reisman, Nick (August 31, 2020)."NY Conservative Party Backs Trump's Re-Election".NY1. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2020.
  16. ^Nichols, John (August 14, 2020)."The Working Families Party Endorses Biden and Harris".The Nation. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2020.
  17. ^Slattery, Denis (October 26, 2020)."Working Families Party gets support from New Yorkers and U.S. Senators Schumer, Gillibrand".New York Daily News. RetrievedOctober 29, 2020.
  18. ^Howman, David (April 1, 2020)."Did Jacob Hornberger Rig the New York Libertarian Primary?".The Libertarian Republic. RetrievedApril 18, 2021.
  19. ^Independence Party of New York (August 24, 2020)."The Independence Party of New York Endorses Brock Pierce for President of the United States".PR Newswire. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2020.
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  24. ^"Battle for White House".RCP. April 19, 2019.
  25. ^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College PredictionsArchived April 23, 2020, at theWayback Machine,Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  26. ^David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020)."Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020".CNN. RetrievedJune 16, 2020.
  27. ^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist. RetrievedJuly 7, 2020.
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  31. ^Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020)."2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes".NPR.org. RetrievedAugust 3, 2020.
  32. ^"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten".NBC News. August 6, 2020. RetrievedAugust 6, 2020.
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  34. ^Real Clear Politics
  35. ^FiveThirtyEight
  36. ^abcdefSurveyMonkey/Axios
  37. ^Research Co.
  38. ^Swayable
  39. ^Siena College[permanent dead link]
  40. ^Public Policy Polling
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  42. ^Siena College
  43. ^Quinnipiac University
  44. ^Siena College
  45. ^Siena College
  46. ^abcdefSiena College
  47. ^abSiena College
  48. ^"AMENDED Certification for the November 3, 2020 General Election"(PDF). New York Board of Elections. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on November 23, 2020. RetrievedDecember 8, 2020.
  49. ^2020 Election ResultsArchived January 15, 2021, at theWayback Machine, New York State Board of Elections, December 3, 2020.
  50. ^"NYC President/Vice President Votes by City Council District".Data Mapper. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2024.
  51. ^"Introducing the 2021 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMarch 19, 2021.
  52. ^"Governor Cuomo Signs Landmark Legislation Modernizing New York's Voting Laws".Albany: GovernorAndrew M. Cuomo. January 24, 2019.Archived from the original on January 26, 2019. RetrievedNovember 29, 2020.
  53. ^abKrieg, Gregory; Simko-Bednarski, Evan (November 18, 2020)."'It's embarrassing': Why New York is still waiting for full election results".CNN.Archived from the original on November 18, 2020. RetrievedMarch 22, 2021.
  54. ^"NY May Speed Up And Permanently Expand Vote-By-Mail, Reform Absentee Count Process".NBC New York. November 25, 2020.Archived from the original on November 26, 2020. RetrievedNovember 29, 2020.
  55. ^Bergin, Brigid (November 28, 2020)."NYC Blows Past Deadline To Certify General Election Results As Lawmakers Push Reforms".Gothamist. Archived fromthe original on November 28, 2020. RetrievedNovember 29, 2020.
  56. ^Kahn, Chris; Lange, Jason (November 3, 2020)."Explainer: Red mirage, blue mirage - Beware of early U.S. election wins".Reuters. RetrievedDecember 30, 2020.
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  61. ^ab"New York 2020 President exit polls".www.cnn.com. RetrievedAugust 8, 2021.
  62. ^Cai, Weiyi; Fessenden, Ford (December 21, 2020)."Immigrant Neighborhoods Shifted Red as the Country Chose Blue".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 5, 2022.
  63. ^abKolko, Jed; Monkovic, Toni (December 7, 2020)."The Places That Had the Biggest Swings Toward and Against Trump".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedAugust 8, 2021.
  64. ^J. Miles Coleman [@JMilesColeman] (December 2, 2020)."Biden carried Jerry Nadler's NY-10 by 76%-23%, down a bit from Clinton's 77%-19%. Brooklyn makes up about 1/5 of the district, and it takes in many Orthodox Jewish precincts. Trump carried that part by <1% in 2016, but won it 56%-43% this time" (Tweet).Archived from the original on August 15, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 15, 2023 – viaTwitter.
  65. ^Tapper, Jake [@jaketapper] (March 14, 2021)."New Square is an all-Hasidic village in Rockland County NY. This is @bidenflippedit are interesting https://t.co/FNX9Qeeb0d" (Tweet).Archived from the original on November 5, 2022. RetrievedJanuary 15, 2023 – viaTwitter.
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  67. ^"New York Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020. RetrievedDecember 28, 2020.

Further reading

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