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| Turnout | 81.33% (of registered voters)[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Precinct results
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| Elections in Montana | ||||||||
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The2020 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[2]Montana voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence, againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California SenatorKamala Harris. Montana had three electoral votes in the Electoral College for the 2020 election.[3]
Trump won Montana 56.92% to 40.55%, a margin of 16.37%, down from the 20.42% margin he scored four years earlier. Prior to this election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump was very likely to win, or otherwise considered a likelyred state.Montana has not been won by a Democrat since1992, and has only been competitive in two elections since then, namely in1996 and in2008.
Despite his loss in the state, Biden was able to flipBlaine County, a bellwether that is home toFort Belknap Indian Reservation. He also narrowed Trump's margins in 31 other counties, including the counties ofLewis and Clark (Helena, the state capital), and to a lesser extentRoosevelt, which holds most ofFort Peck Reservation. Additionally, Biden even widenedHillary Clinton's margin of victory in every other county that she won in 2016. This is the first time since their creation in 1919 and 1912, respectively, that a Democrat has won a presidential election without carrying Roosevelt orHill county.
The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.
Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 27 delegates to the2020 Republican National Convention.[4]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[6] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 111,706 | 74.48 | 18 |
| Bernie Sanders(withdrawn) | 22,033 | 14.69 | 1 |
| Elizabeth Warren(withdrawn) | 11,984 | 7.99 | |
| No Preference | 4,250 | 2.83 | |
| Total | 149,973 | 100% | 19 |
The2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selectingJo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Likely R | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Lean R | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Likely R | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[10] | Likely R | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[11] | Lean R | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[12] | Likely R | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[13] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[14] | Likely R | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[15] | Likely R | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[16] | Likely R | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[17] | Lean R | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[18] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[19] | Likely R | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[20] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
 | This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension. |
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other/ Undecided [a] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[21] | October 22–28, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 44.8% | 50.2% | 5.0% | Trump +5.4 |
| FiveThirtyEight[22] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 45.4% | 49.8% | 4.8% | Trump +4.4 |
| Average | 45.1% | 50.0% | 4.9% | Trump +4.9 | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Jo Jorgensen Libertarian | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[23] | Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 2% | 1%[c] | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 4% | 52%[d] | 46% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,471 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 48% | – | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[25][A] | Oct 26–27, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 47% | – | – | 3% |
| Montana State University Billings[26] | Oct 19–24, 2020 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 45% | 1% | – | 2% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[27] | Oct 18–20, 2020 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | 3% | 2%[e] | 3%[f] |
| Strategies 360/NBCMT[28] | Oct 15–20, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 43% | 3% | – | 4% |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[29] | Oct 15–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50%[g] | 46% | 2% | 4%[h] | 0% |
| 48%[i] | 48% | 2% | 4%[h] | 0% | ||||
| 52%[j] | 44% | 2% | 4%[h] | 0% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[30] | Oct 9–10, 2020 | 798 (V) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 46% | - | 2%[k] | 0% |
| Emerson College[31] | Oct 4–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 56% | 44% | – | – | – |
| Data For Progress (D)[32] | Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 | 737 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 43% | 3% | 0%[l] | 5% |
| Montana State University Bozeman[33] | Sep 14 – Oct 2, 2020 | 1,607 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 44% | – | 4% | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 480 (LV) | – | 57% | 41% | – | – | 2% |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[34] | Sep 14–16, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 42% | 2% | 2%[m] | 5%[f] |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[35] | Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | – | 0%[n] | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 562 (LV) | – | 52% | 46% | – | – | 1% |
| Expedition Strategies/House Majority PAC[36][B] | Aug 22–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 44% | – | – | 7%[f] |
| Emerson College[37] | Jul 31 – Aug 2, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54%[o] | 46% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 527 (LV) | – | 53% | 44% | – | – | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[38][C] | Jul 23–24, 2020 | 917 (V) | – | 50% | 45% | – | – | 5% |
| Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[39][D] | Jul 11–16, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 42% | – | – | 6% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[40] | Jul 11–13, 2020 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 45% | - | 5%[p] | 1% |
| Public Policy Polling/Election Twitter[41] | Jul 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 (V) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 42% | – | – | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[24] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 166 (LV) | – | 57% | 41% | – | – | 2% |
| University of Montana[42] | Jun 17–26, 2020 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 38% | – | – | 10% |
| Montana State University Bozeman[33] | Apr 10–27, 2020 | 459 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 40% | – | 11% | 5% |
| The Progress Campaign (D) | Apr 14–21, 2020 | 1,712 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 42% | – | – | 7%[q] |
| University of Montana[43] | Feb 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | – | – | 10% |
| University of Montana[44] | Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 54% | 47% | – | – | – |
Former candidates | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Steve Bullock
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat
with Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Kasich, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Howard Schultz and Elizabeth Warren
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These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in theElectoral College should their candidate win the state:[48]
| Donald Trump andMike Pence Republican Party | Joe Biden andKamala Harris Democratic Party | Jo Jorgensen andSpike Cohen Libertarian Party |
|---|---|---|
| Thelma Baker Becky Stockton Brad Tschida | Jean Lemire Dahlman Katie Sullivan Cora Neumann | Francis Wendt Jacob Kitson Cher Kitson |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence | 343,602 | 56.92 | +0.75 | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris | 244,786 | 40.55 | +4.80 | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen | 15,252 | 2.53 | −3.11 | |
| Write-in | 34 | 0.01 | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 603,674 | 100.00 | N/A | ||
| Republicanwin | |||||
| County[49][50] | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Beaverhead | 3,923 | 69.30% | 1,608 | 28.40% | 130 | 2.30% | 2,315 | 40.89% | 5,661 |
| Big Horn | 2,207 | 46.10% | 2,491 | 52.04% | 89 | 1.86% | -284 | -5.93% | 4,787 |
| Blaine | 1,469 | 47.11% | 1,589 | 50.96% | 60 | 1.92% | -120 | -3.85% | 3,118 |
| Broadwater | 3,173 | 77.45% | 835 | 20.38% | 89 | 2.17% | 2,338 | 57.07% | 4,097 |
| Carbon | 4,468 | 63.35% | 2,421 | 34.33% | 164 | 2.33% | 2,047 | 29.02% | 7,053 |
| Carter | 775 | 89.70% | 74 | 8.56% | 15 | 1.74% | 701 | 81.13% | 864 |
| Cascade | 23,315 | 58.46% | 15,456 | 38.75% | 1,114 | 2.79% | 7,859 | 19.70% | 39,885 |
| Chouteau | 1,891 | 63.78% | 991 | 33.42% | 83 | 2.80% | 900 | 30.35% | 2,965 |
| Custer | 4,205 | 71.76% | 1,514 | 25.84% | 141 | 2.41% | 2,691 | 45.92% | 5,860 |
| Daniels | 799 | 78.80% | 195 | 19.23% | 20 | 1.97% | 604 | 59.57% | 1,014 |
| Dawson | 3,758 | 77.89% | 962 | 19.94% | 105 | 2.18% | 2,796 | 57.95% | 4,825 |
| Deer Lodge | 2,186 | 44.69% | 2,562 | 52.38% | 143 | 2.92% | -376 | -7.69% | 4,891 |
| Fallon | 1,375 | 87.30% | 172 | 10.92% | 28 | 1.78% | 1,203 | 76.38% | 1,575 |
| Fergus | 4,869 | 74.83% | 1,496 | 22.99% | 142 | 2.18% | 3,373 | 51.84% | 6,507 |
| Flathead | 38,321 | 63.93% | 20,274 | 33.82% | 1,343 | 2.24% | 18,047 | 30.11% | 59,938 |
| Gallatin | 31,696 | 44.65% | 37,044 | 52.18% | 2,248 | 3.17% | -5,348 | -7.53% | 70,988 |
| Garfield | 764 | 93.97% | 41 | 5.04% | 8 | 0.98% | 723 | 88.93% | 813 |
| Glacier | 1,884 | 33.54% | 3,610 | 64.27% | 123 | 2.19% | -1,726 | -30.73% | 5,617 |
| Golden Valley | 414 | 82.31% | 78 | 15.51% | 11 | 2.19% | 336 | 66.80% | 503 |
| Granite | 1,419 | 67.51% | 638 | 30.35% | 45 | 2.14% | 781 | 37.16% | 2,102 |
| Hill | 3,957 | 55.10% | 2,981 | 41.51% | 244 | 3.40% | 976 | 13.59% | 7,182 |
| Jefferson | 5,345 | 65.57% | 2,625 | 32.20% | 181 | 2.22% | 2,720 | 33.37% | 8,151 |
| Judith Basin | 1,040 | 77.38% | 275 | 20.46% | 29 | 2.16% | 765 | 56.92% | 1,344 |
| Lake | 9,322 | 56.07% | 6,916 | 41.60% | 388 | 2.33% | 2,406 | 14.47% | 16,626 |
| Lewis and Clark | 21,409 | 50.64% | 19,743 | 46.70% | 1,121 | 2.65% | 1,666 | 3.94% | 42,273 |
| Liberty | 821 | 75.81% | 249 | 22.99% | 13 | 1.20% | 572 | 52.82% | 1,083 |
| Lincoln | 8,672 | 73.81% | 2,835 | 24.13% | 242 | 2.06% | 5,837 | 49.68% | 11,749 |
| Madison | 4,191 | 68.85% | 1,771 | 29.09% | 125 | 2.05% | 2,420 | 39.76% | 6,087 |
| McCone | 956 | 84.75% | 155 | 13.74% | 17 | 1.51% | 801 | 71.01% | 1,128 |
| Meagher | 833 | 75.05% | 258 | 23.24% | 19 | 1.71% | 575 | 51.80% | 1,110 |
| Mineral | 1,828 | 71.32% | 686 | 26.77% | 49 | 1.91% | 1,142 | 44.56% | 2,563 |
| Missoula | 26,347 | 36.85% | 43,357 | 60.64% | 1,795 | 2.51% | -17,010 | -23.79% | 71,499 |
| Musselshell | 2,423 | 84.10% | 413 | 14.34% | 45 | 1.56% | 2,010 | 69.77% | 2,881 |
| Park | 6,025 | 52.08% | 5,280 | 45.64% | 264 | 2.28% | 745 | 6.44% | 11,569 |
| Petroleum | 298 | 85.63% | 39 | 11.21% | 11 | 3.16% | 259 | 74.43% | 348 |
| Phillips | 1,936 | 81.28% | 416 | 17.46% | 30 | 1.26% | 1,520 | 63.81% | 2,382 |
| Pondera | 2,031 | 67.81% | 903 | 30.15% | 61 | 2.04% | 1,128 | 37.66% | 2,995 |
| Powder River | 970 | 85.39% | 154 | 13.56% | 12 | 1.06% | 816 | 71.83% | 1,136 |
| Powell | 2,355 | 74.08% | 752 | 23.66% | 72 | 2.26% | 1,603 | 50.42% | 3,179 |
| Prairie | 603 | 81.05% | 126 | 16.94% | 15 | 2.02% | 477 | 64.11% | 744 |
| Ravalli | 19,114 | 67.05% | 8,763 | 30.74% | 630 | 2.21% | 10,351 | 36.31% | 28,507 |
| Richland | 4,800 | 82.79% | 875 | 15.09% | 123 | 2.12% | 3,925 | 67.70% | 5,798 |
| Roosevelt | 1,996 | 49.69% | 1,910 | 47.55% | 111 | 2.76% | 86 | 2.14% | 4,017 |
| Rosebud | 2,486 | 65.89% | 1,199 | 31.78% | 88 | 2.33% | 1,287 | 34.11% | 3,773 |
| Sanders | 5,660 | 74.25% | 1,820 | 23.88% | 143 | 1.88% | 3,840 | 50.37% | 7,623 |
| Sheridan | 1,403 | 69.11% | 574 | 28.28% | 53 | 2.61% | 829 | 40.84% | 2,030 |
| Silver Bow | 7,745 | 41.51% | 10,392 | 55.70% | 521 | 2.79% | -2,647 | -14.19% | 18,658 |
| Stillwater | 4,462 | 77.95% | 1,156 | 20.20% | 106 | 1.85% | 3,306 | 57.76% | 5,724 |
| Sweet Grass | 1,840 | 75.22% | 549 | 22.44% | 57 | 2.33% | 1,291 | 52.78% | 2,446 |
| Teton | 2,608 | 70.89% | 1,007 | 27.37% | 64 | 1.74% | 1,601 | 43.52% | 3,679 |
| Toole | 1,596 | 75.32% | 467 | 22.04% | 56 | 2.64% | 1,129 | 53.28% | 2,119 |
| Treasure | 373 | 81.09% | 78 | 16.96% | 9 | 1.96% | 295 | 64.13% | 460 |
| Valley | 3,135 | 73.57% | 1,030 | 24.17% | 96 | 2.25% | 2,105 | 49.40% | 4,261 |
| Wheatland | 823 | 77.06% | 225 | 21.07% | 20 | 1.87% | 598 | 55.99% | 1,068 |
| Wibaux | 516 | 86.29% | 77 | 12.88% | 5 | 0.84% | 439 | 73.41% | 598 |
| Yellowstone | 50,772 | 60.57% | 30,679 | 36.60% | 2,370 | 2.83% | 20,093 | 23.97% | 83,821 |
| Totals | 343,602 | 56.92% | 244,786 | 40.55% | 15,286 | 2.53% | 98,816 | 16.37% | 603,674 |
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Montana has one at-large district that is the same as the statewide results.
Montana, a sparsely populated state straddling theMountain andPlains West, has been a red state on the presidential level from1968 on, voting solidly Republican in the close elections of 1968,2000,2004,2012, and2016. Since1964, it has voted Democratic only in1992, and, aside from that, has been competitive only in1976,1988,[52]1996, and2008. Montana typically votes substantially to the left of its neighbors in the Mountain West (Idaho and Wyoming) and, more recently, of its neighbors in the Plains West as well (North and South Dakota). Nevertheless, Trump was able to carry the state comfortably on Election Day, although his margin was reduced with respect to 2016.
Trump's principal bases of support were inGlacier Country, southwest Montana, central Montana, and southeast Montana, where he carried the population centers ofFlathead County (Kalispell),Ravalli County,Cascade County (Great Falls), andYellowstone County (Billings), in every case with a higher vote share than he received statewide. He also performed strongly in moderate-size, more rural counties in every region of the state, such asLincoln andSanders in Glacier Country,Beaverhead,Madison, andJefferson in the southwest,Stillwater andCarbon in south central Montana,Fergus in central Montana,Custer in the southeast, andRichland,Dawson, andValley in the Missouri River Country.
However, Biden was able to keep the margin smaller than in neighboring states by breaking 60% inMissoula County, the state's third-largest county and home to theUniversity of Montana, and winning a majority inGallatin County, the state's second-largest county and home toMontana State University. Gallatin had been a typically Republican county as recently as2012, when it voted forRomney. He also held Trump to a 4% margin inLewis and Clark County, the state's sixth-largest county and home to the state capital,Helena;George W. Bush had won this county twice by double digits. Biden also held onto the traditionally Democratic strongholds of heavily unionizedSilver Bow andDeer Lodge Counties, although he still fell short of the typical Democratic vote share in those counties; Trump became the first Republican to crack 40% in Silver Bow since1956, and got the highest vote share of any Republican in Deer Lodge since 1956. In addition, Biden once again carried majority-Native AmericanGlacier County; and furthered his margins in the city ofWhitefish, located in heavily-RepublicanFlathead County.[53]
Biden flipped the swing county ofBlaine; Trump flipped no counties.
Perexit polls by theAssociated Press, 49% of voters favored allowing moredrilling and mining fornatural resources on Montana'spublic lands; an overwhelming 87% of them backed Trump.[54]
In addition to Trump's victory in Montana, Republican candidates, riding on hiscoattails, won three other major statewide races, which were expected to be competitive. Incumbent SenatorSteve Daines defeated term-limited GovernorSteve Bullock in theMontana Senate race,[55] Republican State AuditorMatt Rosendale defeated former state representativeKathleen Williams in theMontana House race,[55] and Republican RepresentativeGreg Gianforte defeated Lt. Gov.Mike Cooney in thegovernor's race.[55] This marked the first time since 2000 thatMontana Republicans have held a trifecta.[56] Montana Republicans also won all five state executive branch seats including the State Auditor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction.[57]
| 2020 presidential election in Montana by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[58][59] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of total vote |
| Total vote | 40.55 | 56.92 | 100 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 88 | 8 | 17 |
| Moderates | 64 | 34 | 36 |
| Conservatives | 7 | 91 | 47 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 96 | 3 | 22 |
| Republicans | 6 | 92 | 37 |
| Independents | 40 | 55 | 41 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 33 | 63 | 50 |
| Women | 47 | 52 | 50 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 39 | 58 | 88 |
| Non-white | 45 | 50 | 12 |
| Age | |||
| 18–24 years old | 36 | 57 | 10 |
| 25–29 years old | 25 | 64 | 9 |
| 30–39 years old | 48 | 50 | 15 |
| 40–49 years old | 28 | 69 | 15 |
| 50–64 years old | 46 | 54 | 25 |
| 65 and older | 44 | 55 | 25 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 8 |
| Not LGBT | 38 | 60 | 92 |
| Education | |||
| High school or less | 32 | 65 | 26 |
| Somecollege education | 38 | 58 | 34 |
| Associate degree | 31 | 66 | 10 |
| Bachelor's degree | 45 | 54 | 18 |
| Postgraduate degree | 60 | 39 | 12 |
| Region | |||
| Northern Rockies | 37 | 61 | 17 |
| Central Rockies | 54 | 41 | 21 |
| Southern Rockies | 44 | 54 | 24 |
| Northern Plains | 37 | 60 | 18 |
| Southern Plains | 25 | 73 | 20 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 47 | 50 | 24 |
| Suburban | – | – | 5 |
| Rural | 38 | 59 | 70 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Better than four years ago | 16 | 89 | 44 |
| Worse than four years ago | – | – | 16 |
| About the same | 61 | 37 | 39 |
Partisan clients
Montana
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