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2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2020 United States presidential election.
2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

← 2016November 3, 20202024 →
Turnout74.63%Increase 2.65 pp[1]
 
NomineeJoe BidenDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateDelawareFlorida
Running mateKamala HarrisMike Pence
Electoral vote100
Popular vote1,985,023976,414
Percentage65.36%32.15%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Maryland
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
Government

The2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[2]Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mateVice PresidentMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate California SenatorKamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Biden easily carriedMaryland with 65.4% of the vote to Trump's 32.2% (a margin of 33.2%, significantly larger thanHillary Clinton's 26.4% in2016). Prior to the election, all news organizations projecting the election considered Maryland a state that Biden would carry comfortably.Maryland has long been a Democratic-leaning state, and no Republican presidential candidate has won it sinceGeorge H. W. Bush in1988. Biden carried the Black-majority, suburban counties ofPrince George's County andCharles County with over 80% and 60% of the vote respectively,Baltimore City with almost 90% of the vote, and the white-majority, suburban counties ofMontgomery,Howard, andBaltimore with over 60% each. While Republicans typically win more counties by running up margins in more rural western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, the Baltimore-Washington area casts over three-fourths of the state's vote, making it difficult for a Republican to carry Maryland. While Trump won 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden won the six largest, all of which are part of the Baltimore-Washington area–Montgomery, Prince George's,Anne Arundel,Howard and Baltimore counties and Baltimore City–by over a million votes collectively, more than enough to carry the state.

Perexit polls by theAssociated Press, Biden's principal strength in Maryland came from winning 94% ofAfrican Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed thecriminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%. Biden won all other major demographic groups, including 52% ofWhites (the first time since 1964 that a Democratic candidate won the white vote in Maryland), 69% ofLatinos, 79% ofJews, 54% ofProtestants, and 51% ofCatholics.[4]Frederick,Kent, andTalbot counties voted for Trump in 2016, but supported Biden in 2020.[5]

Primary elections

[edit]

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over theCOVID-19 pandemic.[6]

Republican primary

[edit]

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the2020 Republican National Convention.[7]

Democratic primary

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary § MDresults.[edit]
2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary[8]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[9]
Joe Biden879,75383.7296
Bernie Sanders(withdrawn)81,9397.80
Elizabeth Warren(withdrawn)27,1342.58
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)7,1800.68
Michael Bloomberg(withdrawn)6,7730.64
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)6,6700.63
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)5,6850.54
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)4,2260.40
Cory Booker(withdrawn)2,6620.25
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)2,2910.22
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)8970.09
Julian Castro(withdrawn)7600.07
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)6710.06
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)4060.04
Uncommitted23,7262.26
Total1,050,773100%96

Green primary

[edit]
2020 Maryland Green Party primary[10][11]
CandidateRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Howie Hawkins3453.1%3461.8%3464.15%3468%
Dario Hunter1625%1629.1%1630.18%1632%
Kent Mesplay23.1%35.5%35.66%Eliminated
Write-ins23.1%23.6%Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry11.6%Eliminated
Empty ballot914.1%Eliminated
Total votes64100.0%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[12]Safe DSeptember 10, 2020
Inside Elections[13]Safe DSeptember 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]Safe DJuly 14, 2020
Politico[15]Safe DSeptember 8, 2020
RCP[16]Safe DAugust 3, 2020
Niskanen[17]Safe DJuly 26, 2020
CNN[18]Safe DAugust 3, 2020
The Economist[19]Safe DSeptember 2, 2020
CBS News[20]Likely DAugust 16, 2020
270towin[21]Safe DAugust 2, 2020
ABC News[22]Safe DJuly 31, 2020
NPR[23]Likely DAugust 3, 2020
NBC News[24]Safe DAugust 6, 2020
538[25]Safe DSeptember 9, 2020

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270 to Win[26]October 7–26, 2020November 3, 202060.0%31.7%8.3%Biden +28.3
Real Clear Politics[27]September 4 – October 24, 2020November 3, 202060.3%31.0%8.7%Biden +29.3
FiveThirtyEight[28]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202063.1%31.6%5.3%Biden +31.4
Average61.1%31.4%7.4%Biden +29.7

Polls

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20203,216 (LV)± 2.5%31%[c]66%
Swayable[30]Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020503 (LV)± 5.7%31%67%2%0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29]Oct 1–28, 20205,820 (LV)32%66%
Gonzalez Maryland Poll[31]Oct 19–24, 2020820 (RV)± 3.5%33%58%3%[d]6%
Goucher College[32]Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020776 (LV)± 3.5%30%61%2%2%3%[e]2%
Change Research/Our Voice Maryland[33]Sep 29 – Oct 1, 2020650 (V)± 4.55%32%61%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29]Sep 1–30, 20202,364 (LV)31%67%2%
OpinionWorks[34]Sep 4–11, 2020753 (LV)30%62%3%[d]5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29]Aug 1–31, 20201,813 (LV)31%66%3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29]Jul 1–31, 20201,911 (LV)32%66%2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[29]Jun 8–30, 20201,175 (LV)34%64%2%
Gonzalez Maryland Poll[35]May 19–23, 2020810 (LV)± 3.5%31%59%6%
Goucher College[36]Feb 13–19, 2020718 (LV)± 3.6%35%60%1%[f]4%[g]
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Undecided
Goucher College[36]Feb 13–19, 2020718 (LV)± 3.6%32%59%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Goucher College[36]Feb 13–19, 2020718 (LV)± 3.6%33%58%

with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Tulsi
Gabbard (D)
Undecided
Goucher College[36]Feb 13–19, 2020718 (LV)± 3.6%35%52%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Undecided
Goucher College[36]Feb 13–19, 2020718 (LV)± 3.6%32%59%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Goucher College[36]Feb 13–19, 2020718 (LV)± 3.6%34%61%

with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Tom
Steyer (D)
Undecided
Goucher College[36]Feb 13–19, 2020718 (LV)± 3.6%36%54%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Goucher College[36]Feb 13–19, 2020718 (LV)± 3.6%35%59%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Goucher College[37]Sep 13–18, 2019548 (RV)± 4.2%28%65%3%[h]4%
DFM Research[38]Jan 19–22, 2019500 (A)± 4.4%31%53%16%

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Maryland[39]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,985,02365.36%+5.03%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence
976,41432.15%−1.76%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
33,4881.10%−1.76%
GreenHowie Hawkins
Angela Walker
15,7990.52%−0.77%
Bread and RosesJerome Segal
John de Graaf
5,8840.19%N/A
Write-in20,4220.67%-0.94%
Total votes3,037,030100%

By county

[edit]
CountyJoe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Allegany9,15829.89%20,88668.16%5971.95%-11,728-38.27%30,641
Anne Arundel172,82355.82%127,82141.28%8,9732.90%45,00214.54%309,617
Baltimore258,40962.28%146,20235.24%10,3212.49%112,20727.04%414,932
Baltimore City207,26087.28%25,37410.69%4,8272.03%181,88676.59%237,461
Calvert22,58745.99%25,34651.61%1,1792.40%-2,759-5.62%49,112
Caroline5,09532.26%10,28365.11%4162.63%-5,188-32.85%15,794
Carroll36,45636.34%60,21860.02%3,6533.64%-23,762-23.68%100,327
Cecil16,80935.42%29,43962.03%1,2142.56%-12,630-26.61%47,462
Charles62,17169.47%25,57928.58%1,7481.95%36,59240.89%89,498
Dorchester6,85742.92%8,76454.85%3562.23%-1,907-11.93%15,977
Frederick77,67553.34%63,68243.73%4,2582.92%13,9939.61%145,615
Garrett3,28121.02%12,00276.88%3282.10%-8,721-55.86%15,611
Harford63,09542.58%80,93054.61%4,1612.81%-17,835-12.03%148,186
Howard129,43370.70%48,39026.43%5,2392.86%81,04344.27%183,062
Kent5,32949.37%5,19548.13%2702.50%1341.24%10,794
Montgomery419,56978.61%101,22218.96%12,9522.43%318,34759.65%533,743
Prince George's379,20889.26%37,0908.73%8,5572.01%342,11880.53%424,855
Queen Anne's10,70935.35%18,74161.87%8402.77%-8,032-26.52%30,290
St. Mary's23,13841.57%30,82655.38%1,7013.06%-7,688-13.81%55,665
Somerset4,24141.80%5,73956.56%1671.65%-1,498-14.76%10,147
Talbot11,06249.04%10,94648.53%5472.43%1160.51%22,555
Washington26,04438.42%40,22459.35%1,5112.23%-14,180-20.93%67,779
Wicomico22,05447.72%22,94449.65%1,2182.64%-890-1.93%46,216
Worcester12,56039.63%18,57158.60%5601.77%-6,011-18.97%31,691
Totals1,985,02365.36%976,41432.15%75,5932.49%1,008,60933.21%3,037,030
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden won seven of the state's eight congressional districts.[40]

DistrictBidenTrumpRepresentative
1st39%58%Andy Harris
2nd65%32%Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd68%29%John Sarbanes
4th79%19%Anthony Brown
5th68%29%Steny Hoyer
6th60%37%David Trone
7th78%20%Kweisi Mfume
8th69%29%Jamie Raskin

Analysis

[edit]

Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland for any candidate sinceHoratio Seymour's 67.2% in1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former PresidentTheodore Roosevelt'sthird-party run; even landslide losersHerbert Hoover in1932,Alf Landon in1936, andBarry Goldwater in1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of1856 and1860–when the Republican Party was not yet established in the slaveholding Old Line State–did the Republican nominee perform worse than Trump did in 2020. In this election, Maryland voted 28.75% to the left of the nation at-large.[41]

With the exception ofSomerset County, every county in the state swung to Biden from Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016; many swung Democratic by double digits.[42] It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than one million raw votes: the others beingCalifornia,New York,Massachusetts andIllinois.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^abcdefghiKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ab"Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^"Refused" with 3%
  6. ^"Other" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  7. ^Includes "Refused"
  8. ^"Neither Democratic nor Republican; will vote third party" with 2%; "refused" with 1%

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Official Turnout (By Party and County)"(PDF).
  2. ^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018)."US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?".The Independent.Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  3. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  4. ^"Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted".The New York Times. November 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 9, 2020.
  5. ^abcd"Counties that flipped from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election".The Republican. March 17, 2021.Archived from the original on January 4, 2025.
  6. ^"Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus".Politico. March 17, 2020.
  7. ^"Maryland Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. RetrievedJune 3, 2020.
  8. ^"2020 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. RetrievedOctober 14, 2020.
  9. ^"Delegate Tracker".interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. RetrievedJune 3, 2020.
  10. ^"HOWIE HAWKINS WINS MARYLAND GREEN PARTY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY".Maryland Green Party. May 31, 2020. RetrievedJune 3, 2020.
  11. ^"2020 MGP Presidential Data"(PDF). May 31, 2020. RetrievedJune 3, 2020.
  12. ^"2020 POTUS Race ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  13. ^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  14. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President".crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
  15. ^"2020 Election Forecast".Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. ^"Battle for White House".RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. ^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College PredictionsArchived April 23, 2020, at theWayback Machine,Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  18. ^David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020)."Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020".CNN. RetrievedJune 16, 2020.
  19. ^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist. RetrievedJuly 7, 2020.
  20. ^"2020 Election Battleground Tracker".CBS News. July 12, 2020. RetrievedJuly 13, 2020.
  21. ^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270 to Win.
  22. ^"ABC News Race Ratings".CBS News. July 24, 2020. RetrievedJuly 24, 2020.
  23. ^Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020)."2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes".NPR.org. RetrievedAugust 3, 2020.
  24. ^"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten".NBC News. August 6, 2020. RetrievedAugust 6, 2020.
  25. ^"2020 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Archived fromthe original on August 12, 2020. RetrievedAugust 14, 2020.
  26. ^"Maryland 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin".270toWin.com.
  27. ^"2020 Maryland: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling".www.realclearpolling.com.
  28. ^Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018)."Maryland : President: general election Polls".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on June 28, 2018.
  29. ^abcdef"Candidate preference".www.tableau.com.
  30. ^"Swayable". Archived fromthe original on November 27, 2020.
  31. ^"Gonzalez Maryland Poll"(PDF).
  32. ^"Goucher College"(PDF).
  33. ^Kurtz, Josh (October 7, 2020)."Forget the 2020 Election. Here Are Some Early Poll Results on 2022".
  34. ^OpinionWorks
  35. ^"Gonzalez Maryland Poll"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on May 26, 2020.
  36. ^abcdefgh"Goucher College"(PDF).
  37. ^"Goucher College"(PDF).
  38. ^"DFM Research"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on February 9, 2019. RetrievedApril 24, 2019.
  39. ^"2020 Election Results".Maryland State Board of Elections. RetrievedDecember 10, 2020.
  40. ^"Statewide Data Breakdown by State Congressional Districts".elections.maryland.gov.Archived from the original on June 10, 2023.
  41. ^"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".uselectionatlas.org. RetrievedMarch 31, 2023.
  42. ^"Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins".The New York Times. November 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedAugust 30, 2022.

Further reading

[edit]

External links

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