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| Turnout | 81.33% | ||||||||||||||||
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Daines: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bullock: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Montana | ||||||||
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The2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of Montana. It was held concurrently with the2020 U.S. presidential election, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate andlocal elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senatorSteve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana governorSteve Bullock won the Democratic primary.[2]
Originally, this seat was projected to be asafe Republican hold.[3] However, Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats.[4] One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points.[5] Democrats outspent Republicans $82 million to $63 million on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle.[6] On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10% margin following a trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming expectations.
Despite his loss, Bullock did outperform Biden, who lost Montana by a 16.4% margin.[7] He also flipped two counties won byDonald Trump in the presidential contest —Lewis and Clark andRoosevelt.
This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As theGreen Party was removed from the ballot and bothLibertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for eitherUnited States House of Representatives orUnited States Senate in Montana.[8] This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator was re-elected to this seat.

| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines (incumbent) | 192,942 | 88.02% | |
| Republican | John Driscoll | 13,944 | 6.36% | |
| Republican | Daniel Larson | 12,319 | 5.62% | |
| Total votes | 219,205 | 100.00% | ||
FollowingSteve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.[2]

| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 144,949 | 95.45% | |
| Democratic | John Mues | 3,740 | 2.46% | |
| Democratic | Mike Knoles (withdrawn) | 3,165 | 2.09% | |
| Total votes | 151,854 | 100.00% | ||
After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.[27][28] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.[29]

| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Wendie Fredrickson | 504 | 66.40% | |
| Green | Dennis Daneke | 255 | 33.60% | |
| Total votes | 758 | 100.00% | ||
| Host | Date & time | Link(s) | Participants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Daines (R) | Steve Bullock (D) | |||
| Montana Broadcasters Association | August 8, 2020 9:30pm MDT | [36] | Present | Present |
| Montana Television Network | October 10, 2020 5:47pm MDT | [37] | Present | Present |
| Source | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[38] | Toss Up | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[39] | Tossup | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[41] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[42] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[43] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[44] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[45] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[46] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Graphical summary
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Aggregate polls
| Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Steve Daines | Steve Bullock | Other/Undecided[a] | Margin |
| Real Clear Politics[81] | October 5–24, 2020 | October 30, 2020 | 48.8% | 46.4% | 4.8% | Daines + 2.4 |
| 270 to Win[82] | October 19, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 48.0% | 47.2% | 4.8% | Daines + 0.8 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Steve Daines (R) | Steve Bullock (D) | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[83] | October 29 – November 2, 2020 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 3%[c] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[84][A] | October 26–27, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | 6%[d] |
| The Progress Campaign (D)[85] | October 25, 2020 | – (V)[e] | – | 48% | 48% | – |
| Montana State University Billings[86] | October 19–24, 2020 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 48% | 5%[f] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[87] | October 18–20, 2020 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 6%[g] |
| Strategies 360[88] | October 15–20, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | 5%[f] |
| RMG Research[89] | October 15–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49%[h] | 47% | 5%[i] |
| 47%[j] | 48% | 5%[i] | ||||
| 50%[k] | 45% | 5%[i] | ||||
| Public Policy Polling[90] | October 9–10, 2020 | 798 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 4%[l] |
| Emerson College[91] | October 4–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 43% | 6%[m] |
| Data For Progress (D)[92] | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 737 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 48% | 4%[n] |
| Montana State University Bozeman[93] | September 14 – October 2, 2020 | 1,609 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 49% | 4%[o] |
| Siena College/NYT Upshot[94] | September 14–16, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 44% | 11%[p] |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[95][B] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3%[q] |
| Emerson College[96] | July 31 – August 2, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | 6%[m] |
| Spry Strategies (R)[97][C] | July 11–16, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 44% | 9%[r] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[98] | July 11–13, 2020 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 47% | 3%[s] |
| Public Policy Polling[99] | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 (V) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 46% | 10%[t] |
| University of Montana[100] | June 17–26, 2020 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 47% | 10%[u] |
| Montana State University Bozeman[101] | April 10–27, 2020 | 459 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 46% | 15%[v] |
| The Progress Campaign (D)[102] | April 14–21, 2020 | 712 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[103][D] | March 12–13, 2020 | 903 (V) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.Steve Daines vs. Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Steve Daines (R) | Democratic candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana[104] | February 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 53%[w] |
Steve Daines vs. Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Steve Daines (R) | Democratic candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Montana[105] | September 26 – October 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 64% | 36%[x] |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve Daines (incumbent) | 333,174 | 55.01% | −2.78% | |
| Democratic | Steve Bullock | 272,463 | 44.99% | +4.92% | |
| Total votes | 605,637 | 100.00% | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
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Official campaign websites