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2020 United States Senate election in Iowa

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not to be confused with2020 Iowa Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Iowa
← 2014November 3, 20202026 →
 
NomineeJoni ErnstTheresa Greenfield
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote864,997754,859
Percentage51.74%45.15%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Ernst:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Greenfield:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Joni Ernst
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Joni Ernst
Republican

Elections in Iowa
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The2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of Iowa, concurrently with the2020 U.S. presidential election, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states andelections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.[1] IncumbentRepublican SenatorJoni Ernst won re-election for a second term, defeatingDemocratic nomineeTheresa Greenfield.

Most experts and pollsters considered this race and theconcurrent presidential race as a tossup due to incumbent presidentDonald Trump's low approval ratings and Ernst's own popularity dropping in polls, partly due to a viral moment in a debate where she did not know thebreak-even price forsoybeans.[2] Despite this, Ernst was reelected by a larger-than-expected 6.6 points, while Trump simultaneously won the state with a bigger yet similarly unexpected margin of victory. Ernst carried an overwhelming majority of the state's counties including many rural ones, while Greenfield carried only eight counties:Polk,Linn,Scott,Johnson,Black Hawk,Story,Cerro Gordo andJefferson.[3]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Joni Ernst

Organizations

Result

[edit]
Republican primary results[10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJoni Ernst (incumbent)226,58998.64%
RepublicanWrite-In3,1321.36%
Total votes229,721100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

On June 2, 2020,Theresa Greenfield won the Democratic primary with 47.71% of the vote, defeating three other major candidates, includingMichael Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy.[11][12][13][14][15]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
Host

network

DateLink(s)Participants
Theresa

Greenfield

Michael

T. Franken

Kimberly

Graham

Eddie

Mauro

Iowa PBSMay 18, 2020[38]PresentPresentPresentPresent

Endorsements

[edit]
Michael Franken

Federal officials

  • Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2013–2015) and U.S. Senator from Nebraska (1997–2009)[39] (Republican)
Kimberly Graham

Individuals

Organizations

Theresa Greenfield

Federal officials

State officials

Individuals

Unions

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Michael
Franken		Kimberly
Graham		Theresa
Greenfield		Eddie
Mauro		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[56]May 5–6, 2020849 (V)–12%4%43%4%36%
Emerson College[57]October 13–16, 2019317 (LV)± 5.5%6%4%11%6%74%

Results

[edit]
County results
Results by county:
  Greenfield—70–80%
  Greenfield—60–70%
  Greenfield—50–60%
  Greenfield—40–50%
  Greenfield—<40%
  Franken—<40%
Democratic primary results[10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticTheresa Greenfield132,00147.71%
DemocraticMichael T. Franken68,85124.88%
DemocraticKimberly Graham41,55415.02%
DemocraticEddie Mauro30,40010.99%
DemocraticCal Woods (withdrawn)3,3721.21%
DemocraticWrite-In5140.19%
Total votes276,692100.00%

Other candidates

[edit]
Rick Stewart, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Independents

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Suzanne Herzog, economist and former ER nurse[59]

General election

[edit]

Major media described the campaign as one of the most likely to decide control of the Senate after the 2020 election.[60][61] Polls conducted after the primary showed a close contest between Greenfield and Ernst, with neither candidate leading by more than 4 points.[62][63][64][65]

Through June 2020, Greenfield had raised $11.5 million, compared to $14.6 million for Ernst but by September, Greenfield had pulled ahead, raising $40.0 million compared to $21.6 million for Ernst.[66][67][68] The race was expected to be the most expensive in the state's history,[69] and the second most expensive Senate race in the United States, after the2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina, whereCal Cunningham challengedThom Tillis.[70]

Debate

[edit]
HostDate & timeLink(s)Participants
Joni Ernst (R)Theresa Greenfield (D)
Iowa Press DebatesSeptember 28, 2020[71]PresentPresent

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[72]TossupOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections[73]TossupOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[74]Lean RNovember 2, 2020
Politico[75]TossupNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos[76]TossupOctober 30, 2020
RCP[77]TossupOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ[78]TossupNovember 3, 2020
538[79]TossupNovember 2, 2020
Economist[80]TossupNovember 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

[edit]
Joni Ernst (R)

Organizations

  • Campaign for Working Families[81]
  • Huck PAC[82]
Theresa Greenfield (D)

Federal officials

Unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
‹ Thetemplate below (Graph:Chart) is being considered for deletion. Seetemplates for discussion to help reach a consensus. ›
This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.

Aggregate polling

[edit]
Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst
Source of poll aggregationDates administeredDates updatedTheresa GreenfieldJoni ErnstOther/Undecided[b]Margin
Real Clear Politics[100]November 2, 2020November 3, 202045.8%47.2%7.0%Ernst +1.4
270 to Win[101]November 2, 2020November 3, 202046.6%

47.0%

6.4%Ernst +0.4
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Theresa
Greenfield (D)		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[102]November 1–2, 2020871 (V)–47%48%5%
Change Research[103]October 29 – November 1, 20201,084 (LV)± 3.2%47%48%4%[c]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[104]October 29 – November 1, 2020853 (LV)± 3.7%47%50%2%[d]
Data for Progress[105]October 27 – November 1, 2020951 (LV)± 3.2%45%49%6%[e]
Emerson College[106]October 29–31, 2020604 (LV)± 3.9%48%[f]51%2%[g]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[107][A]October 30, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%51%45%4%[h]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register[108]October 26–29, 2020814 (LV)± 3.4%46%42%11%[i]
Quinnipiac University[109]October 23–27, 20201,225 (LV)± 2.8%48%46%1%[j]
RABA Research[110]October 21–24, 2020693 (LV)± 4%45%51%–
Emerson College[111]October 19–21, 2020435 (LV)± 4.7%51%[f]46%3%[k]
RMG Research[112]October 15–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%43%[l]46%10%[m]
41%[n]48%10%[m]
45%[o]45%10%[m]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[113]October 18–20, 2020753 (LV)± 3.9%45%44%12%[p]
Insider Advantage (R)[114][A]October 18–19, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%43%48%8%[q]
Monmouth University[115]October 15–19, 2020501 (RV)± 4.4%47%47%5%[r]
501 (LV)[s]47%49%–
501 (LV)[t]45%51%–
Data for Progress (D)[116]October 8–11, 2020822 (LV)± 3.4%43%47%10%[u]
YouGov/CBS[117]October 6–9, 20201,022 (LV)± 3.5%43%47%10%[v]
Opinion Insight (R)[118][B]October 5–8, 2020800 (LV)± 3.46%47%[f]45%8%[w]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[119]October 3–6, 2020756 (LV)± 3.9%46%49%6%[x]
Quinnipiac University[120]October 1–5, 20201,205 (LV)± 2.8%45%50%5%[j]
Data for Progress (D)[121]September 23–28, 2020743 (LV)± 3.6%42%[l]44%14%[y]
45%[z]46%9%[aa]
Hart Research Associates (D)[122][C]September 24–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%48%48%–
RABA Research[123]September 23–26, 2020780 (LV)± 4%39%51%–
Monmouth University[124]September 18–22, 2020402 (RV)± 4.9%47%47%5%[ab]
402 (LV)[s]46%49%5%[ac]
402 (LV)[t]47%48%5%[ac]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[125]September 16–22, 2020501 (LV)± 4.99%40%42%19%[ad]
Selzer/Des Moines Register[126]September 14–17, 2020658 (LV)± 3.8%42%45%12%[ae]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[127][D]August 30 – September 5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%5%[af]
Opinion Insight (R)[128][B]August 30 – September 2, 2020800 (LV)± 3.46%49%[f]43%7%[ag]
Public Policy Polling[129]August 13–14, 2020729 (V)± 4.1%45%48%8%[ah]
Monmouth University[130]July 30 – August 3, 2020401 (RV)± 4.9%48%45%6%[ai]
401 (LV)[s]48%47%6%[ai]
401 (LV)[t]48%47%5%[aj]
Data for Progress[131]July 24 – August 2, 20201,101 (LV)± 3.2%43%45%11%[ak]
RMG Research[132]July 27–30, 2020500 (RV)± 4.5%36%40%24%[al]
Spry Strategies (R)[133][E]July 11–16, 2020701 (LV)± 3.7%43%45%12%[am]
GQR Research (D)[134][F]June 23–28, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47%49%4%
Selzer/Des Moines Register[135]June 7–10, 2020674 (LV)± 3.8%43%46%11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[136]June 6–8, 2020865 (RV)± 3.8%45%48%6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[137][G]June 3–4, 2020963 (V)± 3.4%43%45%12%
Public Policy Polling[138]April 30 – May 1, 20201,222 (V)± 2.8%43%42%14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[139][F]December 13–15, 2019944 (V)± 3.4%47%41%12%
Emerson College[57]October 13–16, 2019888 (RV)± 3.2%47%40%14%
Lake Research Partners (D)[140][H]April 24–29, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%56%34%–
Hypothetical polling

with Eddie Mauro

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Eddie
Mauro (D)		Undecided
RABA Research/Eddie Mauro[141][H]May 7–9, 2020632 (LV)± 3.9%42%42%–
Lake Research Partners (D)[140][H]April 24–29, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%58%[l]33%–
49%[an]44%–

with Joni Ernst and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[142]April 29–30, 2019780 (V)± 3.5%48%44%–
Public Policy Polling (D)[143][I]June 30 – July 1, 2017784 (V)± 3.6%48%41%12%

with Joni Ernst and Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Generic
Opponent		OtherUndecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.[144]March 2–5, 2020667 (LV)± 3.8%41%31%3%[ao]26%[ap]

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)[140][H]April 24–29, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%45%41%–

Results

[edit]
State senate district results
2020 United States Senate election in Iowa[145]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanJoni Ernst (incumbent)864,99751.74%−0.36%
DemocraticTheresa Greenfield754,85945.15%+1.39%
LibertarianRick Stewart36,9612.21%+1.48%
IndependentSuzanne Herzog13,8000.83%N/A
Write-in1,2110.07%-0.03%
Total votes1,671,828100.0%
Republicanhold
Margin swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — >15%
  •   Democratic — +12.5−15%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
  •   Republican — >15%

By county

[edit]
By county
County[146]Joni Ernst
Republican		Theresa Greenfield
Democratic		Rick Stewart
Libertarian		Suzanne Herzog
Independent		Write-inMarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Adair2,80967.781,20729.13892.15360.8730.071,60238.664,144
Adams1,49769.3459427.51462.13190.8830.1490341.822,159
Allamakee4,47861.042,60235.471752.39801.0910.011,87625.577,336
Appanoose4,18965.601,95630.631682.63711.1120.032,23334.976,386
Audubon2,18864.891,09232.38702.08210.6210.031,09632.503,372
Benton8,83060.935,20235.903312.281200.8390.063,62825.0314,492
Black Hawk29,22244.2734,96352.961,3011.974900.74370.06-5,741-8.7066,013
Boone8,31554.746,31641.583852.531671.1070.051,99913.1615,190
Bremer8,19656.725,91140.912541.76840.5850.032,28515.8114,450
Buchanan6,06356.644,29240.102482.32960.9050.051,77116.5510,704
Buena Vista4,72459.093,02237.801662.08750.9470.091,70221.297,994
Butler5,29166.062,47430.891732.16690.8620.022,81735.178,009
Calhoun3,51367.401,53129.371292.48320.6170.131,98238.035,212
Carroll7,24564.913,58032.072302.06960.86110.103,66532.8311,162
Cass4,72565.952,25931.531201.67540.7570.102,46634.427,165
Cedar5,93556.304,30040.792262.14740.7060.061,63515.5110,541
Cerro Gordo11,33948.1911,53449.024301.832110.90160.07-195-0.8323,530
Cherokee4,21465.592,00231.161382.15671.0440.062,21234.436,425
Chickasaw4,02461.162,32435.321592.42711.0820.031,70025.846,580
Clarke2,90663.051,52032.981192.58601.3040.091,38630.074,609
Clay5,71664.462,86132.261932.18891.0090.102,85532.198,868
Clayton5,84561.373,43436.061571.65820.8660.062,41125.319,524
Clinton12,55951.5710,94244.936352.612000.82150.061,6176.6424,351
Crawford4,42463.122,33633.331602.28801.1490.132,08829.797,009
Dallas28,72751.6925,42745.751,0061.813810.69330.063,3005.9455,574
Davis2,72867.511,16728.881122.77320.7920.051,56138.634,041
Decatur2,43965.211,16531.15902.41431.1530.081,27434.063,740
Delaware6,45464.963,23532.561721.73710.7140.043,21932.409,936
Des Moines9,46848.279,29647.395913.012321.18290.151720.8819,616
Dickinson7,14963.923,79133.901741.56660.5940.043,35830.0311,184
Dubuque26,03449.0525,43347.911,1482.164280.81370.076011.1353,080
Emmet2,96561.811,63734.131473.06470.9810.021,32827.684,797
Fayette5,86558.063,91238.732292.27890.8870.071,95319.3310,102
Floyd4,18152.453,49843.881872.35981.2380.106838.577,972
Franklin3,27064.551,63932.351001.97500.9970.141,63132.205,066
Fremont2,56367.311,09928.86892.34561.4710.031,46438.453,808
Greene3,06361.361,78435.741042.08390.7820.041,27925.624,992
Grundy4,90067.902,12029.381542.13380.5350.072,78038.527,217
Guthrie4,10364.862,00031.621622.56560.8950.082,10333.246,326
Hamilton4,67959.422,91336.991902.41841.0790.111,76622.437,875
Hancock4,00465.861,88130.941302.14600.9950.082,12334.926,080
Hardin5,63963.802,92033.041952.21840.9510.012,71930.768,839
Harrison5,05963.102,57432.102533.161181.47140.172,48530.998,018
Henry5,87560.123,45735.383103.171161.19140.142,41824.749,772
Howard2,71655.362,01441.051182.41581.1800.0070214.314,906
Humboldt3,67169.741,44327.411082.05400.7620.042,22842.335,264
Ida2,75772.2396425.26661.73280.7320.051,79346.973,817
Iowa5,79460.133,54136.752052.13840.87110.112,25323.389,635
Jackson6,17556.584,24938.943663.351181.0850.051,92617.6510,913
Jasper11,40556.957,90539.475312.651670.83180.093,50017.4820,026
Jefferson4,00845.504,54751.621631.85800.91100.11-539-6.128,808
Johnson23,77328.7757,06369.061,3821.673730.45420.05-33,290-40.2982,633
Jones6,32057.974,23738.862732.50680.6240.042,08319.1110,902
Keokuk3,56568.391,48928.561011.94531.0250.102,07639.825,213
Kossuth5,95766.142,79931.081932.14570.6300.003,15835.079,006
Lee8,48951.297,44544.984852.931220.74110.071,0446.3116,552
Linn53,24842.1069,12554.663,1882.528150.64900.07-15,877-12.55126,466
Louisa3,25961.971,80434.301412.68510.9740.081,45527.675,259
Lucas3,10568.321,30228.65992.18360.7930.071,80339.674,545
Lyon5,52281.801,07315.891041.54500.7420.034,44965.906,751
Madison6,24564.253,16832.592182.24860.8830.033,07731.669,720
Mahaska7,86070.002,96926.442732.431181.0580.074,89143.5611,228
Marion12,21164.066,26932.894232.221440.76150.085,94231.1719,062
Marshall9,05750.688,18745.814422.471650.92210.128704.8717,872
Mills5,34765.542,54431.181772.17821.0180.102,80334.368,158
Mitchell3,34757.692,28239.331242.14490.8400.001,06518.365,802
Monona3,05465.471,45531.191082.32390.8490.191,59934.284,665
Monroe2,74268.401,14828.64842.10340.8510.021,59439.764,009
Montgomery3,63368.531,52028.67981.85460.8740.082,11339.865,301
Muscatine10,27850.289,38145.895702.791990.97130.068974.3920,441
O'Brien5,67576.051,64021.981051.41380.5140.054,03554.077,462
Osceola2,52577.3865720.13491.50310.9510.031,86857.253,263
Page5,15269.272,06727.791381.86781.0530.043,08541.487,438
Palo Alto3,11363.121,67734.001062.15360.7300.001,43629.124,932
Plymouth10,14572.263,58725.552191.56770.55110.086,55846.7114,039
Pocahontas2,64169.871,00326.53912.41391.0360.161,63843.333,780
Polk106,44341.54142,32855.545,3132.071,9850.771880.07-35,885-14.00256,257
Pottawattamie24,72054.8518,52041.101,2692.825241.16320.076,20013.7645,065
Poweshiek5,36153.384,38143.622022.01910.9180.089809.7610,043
Ringgold1,87069.3673227.15752.78160.5930.111,13842.212,696
Sac3,84970.171,44026.251292.35601.0970.132,40943.925,485
Scott42,94146.8845,75149.942,1392.337090.77660.07-2,810-3.0791,606
Shelby4,48967.061,98929.711562.33570.8530.042,50037.356,694
Sioux15,78583.542,82814.971921.02810.4390.0512,95768.5718,895
Story20,75041.0828,21655.861,1332.243700.73440.09-7,466-14.7850,513
Tama5,09056.743,58840.002052.29790.8880.091,50216.748,970
Taylor2,33772.8076223.74832.59280.8700.001,57549.073,210
Union3,82062.382,05133.491722.81761.2450.081,76928.896,124
Van Buren2,58368.841,06528.38752.00280.7510.031,51840.463,752
Wapello8,46455.156,34441.333942.571320.86140.092,12013.8115,348
Warren17,27656.2712,47840.646922.252340.76230.074,79815.6330,703
Washington6,77358.124,51938.782622.25950.8250.042,25419.3411,654
Wayne2,18671.5578425.66531.73280.9240.131,40245.893,055
Webster10,19557.816,84538.814032.291730.98190.113,35019.0017,635
Winnebago3,33656.292,36139.841532.58721.2140.0797516.455,926
Winneshiek6,03950.495,58146.662181.821180.9940.034583.8311,960
Woodbury24,17554.2718,67441.929942.236291.41720.165,50112.3544,544
Worth2,42555.401,80341.19982.24461.0550.1162214.214,377
Wright3,88962.852,06333.341582.55761.2320.031,82629.516,188
Totals864,99751.74754,85945.1536,9612.2113,8000.831,2110.07110,1386.591,671,828

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Ernst carried all four congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

By congressional district
District[145]Joni Ernst
Republican		Theresa Greenfield
Democratic		Rick Stewart
Libertarian		Suzanne Herzog
Independent		Write-inMarginTotal votesRepresentative
(2020)
#%#%#%#%#%#%
1st district206,55949.48197,79247.729,4542.263,2310.772670.068,7672.10417,483Ashley Hinson
2nd district199,74149.17193,58847.659,4262.323,1970.792950.076,1531.51406,247Mariannette Miller-Meeks
3rd district221,26748.75218,75648.209,7472.153,7570.833210.072,5110.55453,848Cindy Axne
4th district237,43060.22144,54336.668,3342.113,6150.923280.0892,88723.56394,250Randy Feenstra
Totals864,99751.74754,85945.1536,9612.2113,8000.831,2110.07110,1386.591,671,828

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

Partisan clients

  1. ^abPoll sponsored by The Center for American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization.
  2. ^abPoll sponsored by The American Action Forum, which is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  3. ^Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. ^Poll sponsored byAARP.
  5. ^This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ^abPoll sponsored by theEnd Citizens United, which has only supported Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
  7. ^Poll sponsored by Emily's List, an organization that supports Democratic female candidates.
  8. ^abcdPoll sponsored by the Eddie Mauro campaign
  9. ^Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization

Voter samples

  1. ^abcdefKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^Stewart (L) with 2%; "Don't recall" and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and would not vote with 0%
  4. ^Stewart (L) and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and "Someone else" with 0%
  5. ^Herzog (I) with 3%; Stewart (L) with 2%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  6. ^abcdWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^"Someone else" with 2%
  8. ^Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  9. ^"Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" and "Undecided/do not remember" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  10. ^ab"Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  11. ^"Someone else" with 3%
  12. ^abcStandard VI response
  13. ^abc"Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  14. ^Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  15. ^Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  16. ^Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  17. ^Stewart (L) with 5%; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  18. ^Herzog (I), "No one" and Stewart (L) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  19. ^abcWith a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  20. ^abcWith a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  21. ^Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  22. ^"Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  23. ^Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
  24. ^Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  25. ^Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  26. ^If the only candidates were Ernst and Greenfield
  27. ^Undecided with 9%
  28. ^Stewart (L) with 1%; Herzog (I), "Other" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  29. ^abStewart (L) with 1; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  30. ^Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 14%
  31. ^"Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  32. ^Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  33. ^Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  34. ^Undecided with 8%
  35. ^abStewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  36. ^Stewart (L) and Undecided with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%
  37. ^"No one" with 11%
  38. ^Undecided with 24%
  39. ^"Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 7%
  40. ^Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Ernst and Mauro
  41. ^Would not vote with 3%
  42. ^"Would consider voting for someone else" with 20%; "unsure" with 6%

References

[edit]
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