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2020 Montenegrin parliamentary election

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Parliamentary election held in Montenegro

2020 Montenegrin parliamentary election
Montenegro
← 201630 August 20202023 →

All 81 seats in theParliament
41 seats needed for a majority
Turnout76.64% (Increase3.23pp)
PartyLeaderVote %Seats+/–
DPSMilo Đukanović35.0630−6
ZBCGZdravko Krivokapić32.5527+6
MjNNAleksa Bečić12.5310−2
CnBDritan Abazović5.544+2
SDIvan Brajović4.093+1
BSRafet Husović3.983+1
SDPDraginja Vuksanović3.142−2
LShNik Gjeloshaj1.5810
KSHFatmir Gjeka1.141+1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Results by each municipality;
 DPS ZBCG BS AL
Saturation of colour denotes strength of vote
Prime Minister beforePrime Minister after
Duško Marković
DPS
Zdravko Krivokapić
Independent
Constitution
Recentelections

Parliamentary elections were held inMontenegro on 30 August 2020.[1] They were the fifth parliamentary in Montenegro sincegaining its independence in 2006. Eighty-one members of the Montenegrin parliament were elected. Elections were organized in special conditions, due to theCOVID-19 pandemic in Montenegro. The parliamentary election was also held simultaneously with thelocal elections in five municipalities.

The period before the election was marked by the high polarization of the electorate. Several corruption scandals of the ruling party triggered2019 anti-government protests, while a controversialreligion law sparked anotherwave of protests.Election observersOrganization for Security and Co-operation in Europe stated: "Abuse of state resources gave theruling party an unfair advantage", and said that although the elections were competitive, the governing party also benefited from a lack ofindependent media.[2]

The election resulted in a victory for theopposition parties and the fall from power of the rulingDPS, which had ruled the country since the introduction of themulti-party system in 1990. On 31 August, the leaders of three opposition coalitions,For the Future of Montenegro,Peace is Our Nation andIn Black and White, agreed to form anexpert government, and to continue to work on theEuropean Union accession process.

Background

Further information:2019 Montenegrin anti-corruption protests and2019–2020 clerical protests in Montenegro

Following the2016 parliamentary elections, the entireopposition started a collectiveboycott of all parliamentary sittings. In January 2017, 39 of the 81 MPs were boycotting parliament, requesting early elections to be held no later than 2018, when the nextpresidential elections were scheduled.[3][4]

In 2016, then Vice President of the rulingDPSSvetozar Marović was arrested in connection to a long-running corruption case concerning his hometown ofBudva; the Montenegrin prosecutor's office labeled him as "head of Budva criminal group," which he later admitted in court. He eventually fled to neighboringSerbia for alleged psychiatric treatment inBelgrade, where he currently resides. Montenegro has repeatedly requested his extradition from Serbia.[5] In August 2020, Marović spoke to the media for the first time, after fleeing to Belgrade, accusing the leadership of the party he founded of corruption, nepotism,partocracy and authoritarianism, also accusingPresident Đukanović of rigging the corruption process against him and members of his family.[6]

PresidentMilo Đukanović, whoseDPS ruled the country for three decades, established ahybrid regime through allegedstrongman tactics

In its June 2018 report, issued after the April 2018 presidential election, theOSCE'sOffice for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, called for election reforms in Montenegro, and for more integrity, impartiality, and professionalism in election administration.[7]

Protests against corruption in theDPS-led government started in February 2019 after the revelation of footage and documents that appeared to implicate top officials in obtaining funds for the ruling party. On 30 March, all 39 opposition MPs signed an "Agreement for the Future", proposed by the protest organizers, in which they promised to boycott the 2020 elections if they were deemed irregular. In May 2020 the protest organizers called for a boycott of the 30 August elections, along with some opposition parties, claiming that the elections would not be held under fair conditions.[8]

The EU-backed board for electoral system reform, which both the government and the opposition participated in, failed in December 2019, after the opposition left the board sessions as a protest against the government passing a controversial law on religion, accusing the ruling party of inciting ethnic hatred and unrest.[9] In late December 2019another wave of protests started against the newly adopted law whichde jure transfers the ownership of church buildings and estates from theOrthodox Church to the Montenegrin state.[10][11]

In its political rights and civil liberties worldwide report in May 2020,Freedom House marked Montenegro as ahybrid regime rather than a democracy because of declining standards in governance, justice, elections, and media freedom. Freedom House stated that years of increasing state capture, abuse of power andstrongman tactics had been employed by long-term Prime Minister and PresidentMilo Đukanović, and for the first time since 2003, Montenegro was no longer categorised as a democracy. The report emphasised the unequal electoral process, cases of political arrests, negative developments related to judicial independence, media freedoms, as well as a series of unresolved cases of corruption within the DPS-led government. Despite repeated demands from the opposition, NGO sector, and the EU-backed institutions for the professionalization and neutralisation of institutions controlling the electoral process, they are still under the de facto control of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists-led coalition government.[12][13][14]

Electoral system

The 81 seats of theParliament of Montenegro are elected in a single nationwide constituency usingclosed listproportional representation. Seats are allocated using thed'Hondt method with a 3%electoral threshold; however, minority groups that account for no more than 15% of the population in adistrict are given an exemption that lowers the electoral threshold to 0.7% for a maximum of three seats.[15] A separate exemption is given toethnic Croats whereby if no list representing the population passes the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes will win one seat if it receives more than 0.35% of the vote.[16]

Campaign

On 1 May 2019, theSocialist People's Party (SNP),United Montenegro (UCG),Workers' Party (RP) andIndependent group inthe parliament agreed to form a new catch-all political alliance under the nameFor the Benefit of All.[17][18] The alliance eventually dissolved prior the election. In August 2020, all three parties decided to join a pre-election coalition with right-wingDemocratic Front (DF) alliance, under the nameFor the Future of Montenegro,[19] as did some minor political parties, such as theTrue Montenegro (PCG),Democratic Party of Unity (DSJ),Democratic Serb Party (DSS) andYugoslav Communist Party (JKP).[20]

On 11 July 2020, theCivic Movement URA decided to run independently, presenting its centre-left "In Black and White"election platform, led byindependent candidates, including well known journalist and activistMilka Tadić, someuniversity professors, journalists, civic and NGO activists, with the party leaderDritan Abazović as a ballot carrier.[21] URA electoral list also contains one representative of the Bosniak minority interestsSPP party, as well of some minor localist parties and initiatives.[22]

Democratic Montenegro,DEMOS, theNew Left,PUPI and the NGOPolicy Research Society, agreed to form a pre-election coalition under the namePeace is Our Nation, with Democratic Montenegro leaderAleksa Bečić as a ballot carrier.[23][24]

On 12 July 2020, the oppositionSocial Democratic Party of Montenegro (SDP) announced that it would run independently,[25] as did theSocial Democrats of Montenegro (SD), junior party in theprevious government coalition, a few days earlier.[26]

On 28 July 2020, theAlbanian List, aminority politics coalition was formed byNew Democratic Force (Forca), theAlbanian Alternative (AA),Albanian Coalition Perspective (AKP) and theDemocratic League of Albanians (DSA),[27] A few weeks earlier,Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA) agreed to join theDP andDSCG'sAlbanian Coalition "Unanimously".[28]

Prior to August 2020, the centre-right minority politicsBosniak Party (BS) announced that it would run independently, as did the centre-rightCroatian Civic Initiative (HGI) and the newly formed centristCroatian Reform Party (HRS).[29]

On 1 August 2020, the rulingDemocratic Party of Socialists (DPS) decided to run independently, withAndrija Popović asLiberal Party (LP) representative on their electoral list, with incumbent prime-ministerDuško Marković as a ballot carrier.[30]

Electoral lists

#Electoral list nameBallot carrierPolitical positionNote
1Social Democrats – Ivan Brajović – We decide, consistentlyIvan BrajovićCentre-left, populism
2Bosniak Party – Correctly –Rafet HusovićErvin IbrahimovićCentre-right to rightM
3HGI – With all heart for Montenegro!Adrian VuksanovićCentre-rightM
4Social Democratic Party – Strong Montenegro!Draginja VuksanovićCentre-left
5Croatian Reform Party of Montenegro – HRSRadovan MarićCentre to centre-rightM
6Dritan Abazović –In Black and White – Srđan PavićevićDritan AbazovićCentre-left
7Albanian Coalition – Unanimously –DP,DUA,DSCGFatmir GjekaCentre-right to rightM
8Decisively for Montenegro!DPSMilo ĐukanovićDuško MarkovićBig tent, populism
9For the Future of MontenegroDF,SNP,Popular MovementZdravko KrivokapićCentre-right to right
10Albanian ListGenci Nimanbegu,Nik ĐeljošajNik GjeloshajCentre-right to rightM
11Aleksa Bečić –Miodrag LekićPeace is Our NationAleksa BečićBig tent, centrism
• Source:National Electoral Commission (official website). • Note: "M" denotes thenational minority electoral list.

Opinion polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date poll was published. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. The threshold for a party to provide their deputies in parliament is 3%, except for minority parties and coalitions (E.g.BS,Forca andAA), for which that threshold does not apply.

  • [a] denotes the poll was commissioned by an election participating political party.
  • [b] denotes the poll was commissioned by an embassy or a foreign institute.
DatePolling firm/sourceDPSDFPCGSNPUCGURADemosDCGSDPSDBSForcaAAOthersLead
Results35.0632.555.5412.533.144.103.981.581.522.51
Aug 2020ICA35.125.97.515.53.12.65.44.40.59.2
Aug 2020CeDem35.324.76.616.54.25.34.81.90.710.6
July 2020NSPM35.917.23.84.5>16.13.517.53.41.83.21.31.818.4
July 2020HoW[a]41.215.86.12.416.43.95.94.12.91.324.8
June 2020HoW[a]39.813.82.15.10.82.22.913.23.86.24.23.32.626.0
May 2020HoW[a]41.212.91.45.50.62.83.112.14.46.54.13.22.228.3
Apr 2020HoW[a]40.512.51.85.20.92.72.713.54.16.14.23.12.726
Feb 2020ICA32.823.11.62.60.73.32.311.83.12.75.14.56.49.7
Dec 2019CeDem3713.22.25.81.23.72.6154.14.84.911.62.922
Oct 2019NSPM[b]35.520.81.96.32.51.715.13.24.43.22.33.114.7
Sep 2019Damar[a]3815.34.340.72.72.514.82.84.342.64.022.7
Aug 2019Ipsos41133822.517242>123.524
July 2019CeDem3415.62.36.64.93.714.63.15.34.3>12.6318.4
Dec 2018CeDem41.510.11.16.8>12.82.620.73.543.20.12.31.320.8
Dec 2018NSPM[b]42.718.41.34.41.22.11.214.13.54.53.1>11.52.024.3
Mar 2018CeDem4312.61.15.1>13.72.421.241.222.40.21.121.8
Dec 2017CeDem39.9134.50.43.53.521.33.93.52.70.713.218.6
Oct 2017Ipsos[b]401553323333>11217
Oct 2017DeFacto[a]3812.24.11.54.326.13.41.91.92>16.611.9
July 2017CeDem3911.64.945.919.93.93.23.11.21.13.719.1
Dec 2016CeDem36.8217.81.66.312.24.12.33.40.81.13.715.8
Oct 2016Election results41.420.311.110.15.23.23.11.24.221.1

The following graph depicts the evolution of standings of the main electoral lists in the poll average since last parliamentary elections in October 2016. Graph of opinion polls conducted, trend lines represent local regressions.

Results

The result was a victory for the lists of parties which were in opposition in the previous parliament:For the Future of Montenegro,Peace is Our Nation and theUnited Reform Action. Opposition lists won 41 of the 81 seats in the Parliament of Montenegro, while the rulingDPS, together with theLiberal Party, won 30 seats, going into opposition after thirty years in power. Three opposition lists, For the Future of Montenegro, Peace is Our Nation, and the United Reform Action party, which won a combined majority of 41 MPs, announced the formation of a coalition government.[31]

Opposition success at the national level was accompanied by its success atlocal level elections. It won four out of five municipalities where elections were held, includingBudva,Kotor,Tivat andAndrijevica.[32]

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro143,51535.0630–6
For the Future of Montenegro133,26132.5527+6
Peace is Our Nation51,29812.5310–2
In Black and White22,6795.544+2
Social Democrats of Montenegro16,7614.093+1
Bosniak Party16,2793.983+1
Social Democratic Party of Montenegro12,8353.142–2
Albanian List6,4881.5810
Albanian Coalition4,6751.141+1
Croatian Civic Initiative1,1060.270–1
Croatian Reform Party4960.120New
Total409,393100.00810
Valid votes409,39398.91
Invalid/blank votes4,5001.09
Total votes413,893100.00
Registered voters/turnout540,02676.64
Source:DIK,Vijesti

Aftermath

Reactions

Zdravko Krivokapić,
ZBCG list leader
Aleksa Bečić,
MNN list leader
Dritan Abazović,
CnB list leader

TheOSCE andODIHR announced in preliminary findings and conclusions that elections were competitive and held in an atmosphere of high polarization over issues ofSerbian Orthodox Church status andMontenegrin national identity,[33][34] also stating that the election date was not held in accordance with the Constitution, there was no independent campaign coverage, and the ruling party profited unjustifiably through widespread abuse of office and state resources.[33][34][35] Furthermore, they pointed out that, contrary to the national legislation and international standards, several opposition MPs were arrested or prosecuted between elections.[33][35]

Political scientistFlorian Bieber described results as the "good news for democracy".[34]Josep Borrell,High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, andOlivér Várhelyi,European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, stated that they "look forward to the constitution of a new parliament and the formation of a new government that will continue Montenegro's steady path towards the EU."[36] Chair of Women wing of theEuropean People's Party (EPP),Doris Pack supported the new parliamentary majority in Montenegro, criticizing the outgoing DPS regime for "socialist propaganda" tactics, she appealed the Western public and media to not fall in the trap of obvious propaganda, emphasizing that the EU path will undoubtedly remain the principal objective of the new government, after the regime change.[37][38][39]

On 1 September,Milo Đukanović conceded defeat, accusing Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić andBelgrade-based media of interfering in the internal politics of Montenegro, as well of alleged trying to revive a "Greater Serbia policy".[40] He stated that it is possible that his party lost its support due to dissatisfaction with some policy, but also due to manipulations from Belgrade, as well from the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro, due to the disputed Law on Religious Communities.[40]

The new majority parties and theSerbian Orthodox priests protested in front of theHusein-paša's Mosque (on photo) in support of theIslamic Community.

Incidents

Massive celebrations were held all over Montenegro the day after the elections. In Podgorica, opposition supporters clashed with the ruling DPS supporters.[41][42]Zdravko Krivokapić,Aleksa Bečić andDritan Abazović, the leaders of the opposition lists, called on supporters to stay at home, as well as authorities to investigate incidents and prosecute any attackers.[43][44] Although theirincumbent cabinet had previously banned all public gatherings due to theCOVID-19 pandemic in Montenegro, the rulingDemocratic Party of Socialists of PresidentMilo Đukanović announced a counter-meeting, due to the alleged "threat for Montenegrin statehood and independence", in case the DPS falls from a position of power.[45] Representatives of the new parliamentary majority, including Aleksa Bečić, Zdravko Krivokapić, Dritan Abazović,Vladimir Joković,Miodrag Lekić andVladimir Pavićević strongly condemned violence and conflict, accusing theDPS-led government, thePolice Administration and theNational Security Agency of Montenegro administration of staging conflict and inciting ethnic hatred and unrest, in order to prevent a peaceful change of decades-long regime in Montenegro.[46] Krivokapić also demanded that the delinquents and perpetrators of the unrest must be identified and prosecuted by the police and the prosecution, as soon as possible.[47]

On 2 September, glass was broken on the door of theIslamic Community ofPljevlja and a message was left saying "The black bird has taken off, Pljevlja will beSrebrenica." The informal group "Bunt Crna Gora" announced that, if the police do not immediately shed light on the case, "Serbs from Pljevlja will organize people's patrols in order to protect their neighbors from DPS subversion."[48] Albin Ćeman, the deputy leader of the oppositionDemocrats and member of Islamic community, called for calming tensions and accused the ruling party of instructed provocation.[49] The For the Future of Montenegro coalition condemned the incidents and also expressed suspicion that it was done by the outgoing DPS-led regime.[50][51]Imam of Pljevlja Samir Kadribašić stated that the attacks on the property of the Islamic community were an isolated incident of hooligans and that the new parliamentary majority parties do not represent those values. Kadribašić also expressed doubts about the activities of police in Pljevlja, saying he would hold the police directly responsible if they did not find the perpetrators of the vandalism.[52] Krivokapić protested with Serbian Orthodox Church priests in front of theHusein-paša's Mosque, with the message that they are ready to defend the places of worship of all religious communities in Montenegro.[53][54]

At the pro-government "Patriotic gathering" inCetinje,Montenegrin nationalists performedanti-Serb songs byMiroslav Škoro andMarko Perković Thompson, which also included theUstašesalute.[55][56][57] Another pro-government rally was announced for 6 September in Podgorica.[58] Although all mass public gatherings in the country were banned, due the COVID-19 virus spread, government's national coordinating virus control body and law enforcement administration did not respond to the announcement of an unreported mass gathering in the capital, which many assessed as a possible epidemiological and security risk.[59] Many senior Police Administration officials publicly supported the rally, as did the president of the national COVID-19 control bodyMilutin Simović, who is also a high-ranking member of the rulingDPS.[60] Police Administration stated that, according to their estimates, about 50,000 citizens were present at the rally and that the gathering passed without any incident, without responding to the media whether the gathering was registered and who the organizers were.[61] The participants of the rally accused the new parliamentary majority of allegedly working against Montenegrin national interests, calling them a threat to country independence and statehood. The rally was also marked by inappropriate messages to leaders and members of some parties of the new majority, who were labeled as "traitors" and "chetnik scoundrels". Rally participants'snationalist rhetoric andhate speech has been condemned by numerous media outlets, Montenegrin public figures, artists, university professors, academic and student associations, human rights activists and NGOs.[62][63]

Dritan Abazović,Zdravko Krivokapić andAleksa Bečić at the signing of the agreement on the principles of the new government of Montenegro, 9 September 2020.

Cabinet formation

Next day after the election, the leaders of two opposition electoral lists,For the Future of Montenegro andPeace is Our Nation, as well as theUnited Reform Action party, that combined won a slim majority, agreed to form anexpert government, to continue to work on theEuropean Union accession process, fight against corruption, overcoming society polarization and economic crisis, and to work on changing thedisputed Law on Religious Communities.[34][31] They also welcomed the minority parties ofBosniaks andAlbanians in Montenegro and wished to form a government with them.[31][43] Serbian pro-government tabloids have unanimously criticized the coalition agreement between three new parliamentary majority lists, for agreeing not to discuss changingnational symbols of Montenegro, thede-recognition ofKosovo, or the country's withdrawal from theNATO, during the new government term, calling Krivokapić "Amfilohije's Prime Minister"[64]

The final draft agreement of the future government coalition of the new majority in Montenegro, composed of three lists that were in opposition in the previous term, was agreed and signed in front of the media on 9 September 2020 in the Podgorica Media Center. The agreement was signed by the leaders of the three winning electoral listsZdravko Krivokapić (For the Future of Montenegro),Aleksa Bečić (Peace is Our Nation) andDritan Abazović (United Reform Action).[65] Among other things, they signed a guarantee that the new government will not initiate any procedures to change thenational flag,coat of arms oranthem, i.e. that it will respect the currentConstitution of Montenegro, that there will be nopolitical revanchism, also that the new government will pass all laws in accordance with European standards, with the aim of achievingEU integration as soon as possible, that it will rapidly and dedicatedly implement all reforms related to European integration of the country, that it will depoliticize main state institutions in order to ensure an uncompromising fight against corruption and crime, and that the new government will respect all current international obligations, including the country's membership inNATO and abandoning all initiatives to de-recognizeKosovo's independence, which previously was advocated by some members of the new parliamentary majority (e. g.Democratic Front, major constituent of For the Future of Montenegro coalition).[66] Krivokapic said that the new government is preparing for the worst-case scenario when it comes to the economy,[67] he said that Montenegro will not be under influence ofSerbia orRussia, but that his government will establish better diplomatic relations with both countries, also naming accession of Montenegro to theEuropean Union, as the main priority of the new ruling coalition.[68] The leaders of three lists has signed that it will allow minority parties to participate in government, regardless of whether they have parliamentary status or not. Announcing the new government as reformist, pro-European and dedicated to Montenegrin national interests, as well that it will be officially inaugurated by the end of October, unless the process of taking power is obstructed byPresident of MontenegroMilo Đukanović, who is also leader of theDemocratic Party of Socialists.[69][70] On September 23, all 41 deputies of the three coalitions of the new majority in parliament officially supported Zdravko Krivokapić as the newprime minister-designate, as well electing Aleksa Bečić newPresident of the Parliament of Montenegro.[71]

On 4 December 2020, the new government was elected by 41 out of 81 members of theParliament of Montenegro, and Krivokapić formally became the Prime Minister of Montenegro.[72]

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