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| Turnout | 62.26% | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsRosen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Heller: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of twoU.S. senators from Nevada. IncumbentRepublican senatorDean Heller lost re-election to a second full term, being defeated byDemocratic nomineeJacky Rosen.
Heller had considered a bid forNevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. This was the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 in a stateHillary Clinton won in the2016 presidential election, and one of two Democratic flips in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections.[1][2] Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada had been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 2001). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018; he later unsuccessfully ran in the 2022 Republican primary for governor of Nevada.
The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12.[3]
Nevada is a swing state that once leaned slightly rightward, having voted forGeorge W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, givingBarack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting forHillary Clinton, but only by two points, although DemocratCatherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leaderHarry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position;President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass theGOP Health care bill torepeal and replace theAffordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election.[4][5]
At the end of September 2018, theBrett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks[6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh.[7][8]
Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, the first female representative to do so, and the first one-term House Democrat to become a senator-elect sinceJames Abourezk in1972.[9]
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with Danny Tarkanian
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dean Heller | Danny Tarkanian | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics[33] | October 24–26, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 44% | 17% |
| JMC Analytics[34] | August 24–25, 2017 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 31% | 39% | 31% |
| The Tarrance Group (R-Heller)[35] | August 14–16, 2017 | 300 | ± 5.8% | 55% | 33% | 12% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dean Heller (incumbent) | 99,509 | 69.97% | |
| Republican | Tom Heck | 26,296 | 18.49% | |
| Republican | None of These Candidates | 5,978 | 4.20% | |
| Republican | Sherry Brooks | 5,145 | 3.62% | |
| Republican | Sarah Gazala | 4,011 | 2.82% | |
| Republican | Vic Harrell | 1,282 | 0.90% | |
| Total votes | 142,221 | 100.00% | ||
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jacky Rosen | 110,567 | 77.11% | |
| Democratic | None of These Candidates | 10,078 | 7.03% | |
| Democratic | David Knight | 6,346 | 4.43% | |
| Democratic | Allen Rheinhart | 4,782 | 3.33% | |
| Democratic | Jesse Sbaih | 4,540 | 3.17% | |
| Democratic | Bobby Mahendra | 3,835 | 2.67% | |
| Democratic | Danny Burleigh | 3,244 | 2.26% | |
| Total votes | 143,392 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[81] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[82] | Tilt D(flip) | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[84] | Tossup | October 30, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[85] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[86] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| Fox News[87] | Tossup | October 30, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[88] | Tossup | November 6, 2018 |
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| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Dean Heller (R)Incumbent | $14,525,094 | $12,538,859 | $2,211,457 |
| Jacky Rosen (D) | $21,571,221 | $20,817,629 | $768,851 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[112] | |||
 | This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dean Heller (R) | Jacky Rosen (D) | Tim Hagan (L) | None of these | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[113] | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX[114] | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | – | – | – |
| Emerson College[115] | November 1–4, 2018 | 1,197 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 49% | – | – | 3% | 4% |
| HarrisX[116] | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX[117] | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX[118] | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[119] | October 29 – November 1, 2018 | 2,587 | ± 1.9% | 49% | 46% | – | – | 2% | 3% |
| HarrisX[120] | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
| HarrisX[121] | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 43% | 46% | – | – | – | – |
| CNN/SSRS[122] | October 24–29, 2018 | 622 LV | ± 4.8% | 45% | 48% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 1% |
| 807 RV | ± 4.2% | 41% | 44% | 4% | 8% | 0% | 3% | ||
| Gravis Marketing[123] | October 24–26, 2018 | 773 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 47% | – | – | – | 7% |
| Ipsos[124] | October 12–19, 2018 | 1,137 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | – | – | 8% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[125] | October 15–16, 2018 | 648 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | 7% |
| Vox Populi Polling[126] | October 13–15, 2018 | 614 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 51% | – | – | – | – |
| Emerson College[127] | October 10–12, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | – | – | 3% | 8% |
| NYT Upshot/Siena College[128] | October 8–10, 2018 | 642 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | – | – | 1% | 7% |
| NBC News/Marist[129] | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 574 LV | ± 5.5% | 44% | 42% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 4% |
| 46% | 44% | – | 5% | 1% | 4% | ||||
| 780 RV | ± 4.5% | 42% | 41% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 6% | ||
| 45% | 43% | – | 6% | 1% | 6% | ||||
| Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS[130] | September 19 – October 2, 2018 | 513 | ± 5.0% | 45% | 44% | – | – | 4% | 7% |
| CNN/SSRS[131] | September 25–29, 2018 | 693 LV | ± 4.6% | 43% | 47% | 4% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| 851 RV | ± 4.1% | 40% | 43% | 5% | 10% | 0% | 2% | ||
| Ipsos[132] | September 7–17, 2018 | 1,039 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | – | 4% | 8% |
| Gravis Marketing[133] | September 11–12, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 47% | – | – | – | 8% |
| Suffolk University[134][a] | September 5–10, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 42% | 2% | 2% | 4%[135] | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[136] | August 20–21, 2018 | 528 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 48% | – | – | – | – |
| Suffolk University[137] | July 24–29, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 40% | 2% | 5% | 3%[138] | 9% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[139] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,097 | ± 5.5% | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | 7% |
| Gravis Marketing[140] | June 23–26, 2018 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 45% | – | – | – | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter)[141] | April 30 – May 1, 2018 | 637 | ± 3.9% | 42% | 44% | – | – | – | 14% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[142] | April 2–23, 2018 | 1,332 | ± 5.0% | 44% | 50% | – | – | – | 6% |
| The Mellman Group[143] | April 12–19, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | – | – | – | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[144] | March 15–17, 2018 | 720 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 44% | – | – | – | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[145] | June 23–25, 2017 | 648 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 42% | – | – | – | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dean Heller (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)[146] | July 26–27, 2017 | 847 | ± 3.6% | 31% | 50% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Save My Care)[147] | June 13–14, 2017 | 706 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 46% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[144] | March 15–17, 2018 | 720 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
withDina Titus
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dean Heller (R) | Dina Titus (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[148] | June 23–29, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jacky Rosen | 490,071 | 50.41% | +5.70% | |
| Republican | Dean Heller (incumbent) | 441,202 | 45.38% | −0.49% | |
| None of These Candidates | 15,303 | 1.57% | -2.97% | ||
| Independent | Barry Michaels | 9,269 | 0.95% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Tim Hagan | 9,196 | 0.95% | N/A | |
| Independent American | Kamau Bakari | 7,091 | 0.73% | −4.16% | |
| Total votes | 972,132 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democraticgain fromRepublican | |||||
Margin swing by countyHeller carried 15 of Nevada's 17 county-level jurisdictions, but Rosen carried the two largest,Clark (home to Las Vegas) andWashoe (home toReno). She won Clark County by over 92,000 votes, almost double her statewide margin of over 48,900 votes.[150]
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Rosen won three of four congressional districts.[151]
| District | Rosen | Heller | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 64% | 32% | Dina Titus |
| 2nd | 43% | 53% | Mark Amodei |
| 3rd | 50% | 46% | Susie Lee |
| 4th | 51% | 44% | Steven Horsford |
The NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) has endorsed Dean Heller for U.S. Senate.
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