The2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of Montana , concurrently withother elections to the United States Senate,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives , and variousstate and local elections .
This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state thatDonald Trump won in the2016 presidential election . IncumbentDemocratic SenatorJon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeatingRepublican State Auditor Matt Rosendale . Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018.[ 2]
Following his loss, Rosendale went on to run for Montana's vacant congressional seat in 2020 and won, taking office in the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2021.
Jon Tester
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
Democratic primary results[ 16] Party Candidate Votes % Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 114,948 100.00% Total votes 114,948 100.00%
Eliminated in primary [ edit ] Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010[ 21] [ 22] Matt Rosendale
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Individuals
Organizations
Results by county Libertarian primary [ edit ] In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from theAssociated Press that he opposed the use ofdark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics.[ 45] [ 45] [ 46] [ 47] [ 48]
Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot.[ 49]
[ edit ] Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist[ 50] Eliminated in primary [ edit ] Results by county Kelly—100%
Kelly—≥90%
Kelly—80–90%
Kelly—70–80%
Kelly—60–70%
Kelly—50–60%
Kelly—40–50%
Kelly/Adams tie—30–40%
Kelly/Adams tie—50%
Adams—50–60%
Adams—60–70%
Adams—100%
No votes
Green primary results[ 16] Party Candidate Votes % Green Steve Kelly 971 61.22% Green Timothy Adams 615 38.78% Total votes 1,586 100%
Jon Tester (D)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Newspapers
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
Matt Rosendale (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand Jon Tester (D) $19,499,290 $17,946,600 $1,612,530 Matt Rosendale (R) $5,034,075 $4,515,910 $524,379 Rick Breckenridge (L) - - - Source: Federal Election Commission[ 81]
Poll source Date(s) Sample Margin Jon Matt RickBreckenridge (L) Other Undecided The Trafalgar Group (R) [ 82] November 2–5, 2018 953 ± 3.2% 50% 49% – 1% 0% HarrisX [ 83] November 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42% – – – Change Research [ 84] November 2–4, 2018 879 – 46% 49% 3% – – HarrisX [ 85] October 31 – November 4, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43% – – – HarrisX [ 86] October 30 – November 3, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 43% – – – HarrisX [ 87] October 29 – November 2, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 42% – – – HarrisX [ 88] October 28 – November 1, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42% – – – HarrisX [ 89] October 27–31, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 42% – – – HarrisX [ 90] October 24–30, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 48% 40% – – – Gravis Marketing [ 91] October 24–26, 2018 782 ± 3.5% 48% 45% – – 7% University of Montana [ 92] October 10–18, 2018 533 ± 4.3% 49% 39% 2% – 10% Montana State University Billings [ 93] October 8–13, 2018 471 ± 4.5% 47% 38% 3% – 12% Montana State University Bozeman [ 94] September 15 – October 6, 2018 2,079 ± 2.2% 46% 43% 3% 2% 7% Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) [ 95] September 28, 2018 594 ± 4.0% 49% 45% – – 6% Gravis Marketing [ 96] September 19–22, 2018 710 ± 3.7% 49% 45% – – 6% Axis Research (R-NRSC) [ 97] September 17–19, 2018 – ± 4.5% 44% 44% 4% – 8% AARP /Benenson Strategy Group (D) [ 98] September 6–16, 2018 950 ± 3.1% 50% 43% – 2% 5% CBS News /YouGov [ 99] September 10–14, 2018 453 – 47% 45% – 3% 5% University of Montana [ 100] August 13–31, 2018 466 ± 4.5% 56% 32% 2% – 9% WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) [ 101] August 20–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 47% – – 5% Remington Research (R) [ 102] July 8–10, 2018 2,581 ± 2.0% 49% 46% – – 5% SurveyMonkey /Axios [ 103] June 11 – July 2, 2018 974 ± 5.0% 55% 43% – – 3% Gravis Marketing [ 104] June 11–13, 2018 469 ± 4.5% 52% 44% – – 4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s) Sample Margin Jon Generic Undecided SurveyMonkey /Axios [ 105] February 12–March 5, 2018 1,484 ± 3.4% 42% 55% 3%
Swing by county Democratic—+10-15%
Democratic—+5-10%
Democratic—+<5%
Republican—+<5%
Republican—+5-10%
Republican—+10-15%
Republican—+15-20%
Republican—+20-25%
State House district resultsState Senate district resultsFromSecretary of State of Montana [ 107]
County Jon TesterDemocratic Matt RosendaleRepublican Rick BreckenridgeLibertarian Totalvotes
# % # % # % Beaverhead 1,876 38.31% 2,866 58.53% 155 3.17% 4,897 Big Horn 3,027 64.73% 1,558 33.32% 91 1.95% 4,676 Blaine 1,961 64.96% 982 32.53% 76 2.52% 3,019 Broadwater 1,071 32.84% 2,086 63.97% 104 3.19% 3,261 Carbon 2,680 44.17% 3,209 52.89% 178 2.93% 6,067 Carter 128 17.02% 602 80.05% 22 2.93% 752 Cascade 17,435 51.27% 15,566 45.77% 1,008 2.96% 34,009 Chouteau 1,275 47.99% 1,312 49.38% 70 2.63% 2,657 Custer 1,942 39.77% 2,762 56.56% 179 3.67% 4,883 Daniels 281 29.86% 631 67.06% 29 3.08% 941 Dawson 1,233 30.27% 2,700 66.29% 140 3.44% 4,073 Deer Lodge 2,892 68.27% 1,208 28.52% 136 3.21% 4,236 Fallon 281 21.80% 951 73.78% 57 4.42% 1,289 Fergus 1,964 33.90% 3,640 62.83% 189 3.26% 5,793 Flathead 19,652 41.15% 26,759 56.03% 1,349 2.82% 47,760 Gallatin 33,251 59.45% 21,248 37.99% 1,434 2.56% 55,933 Garfield 81 11.88% 571 83.72% 30 4.40% 682 Glacier 3,754 75.14% 1,153 23.08% 89 1.78% 4,996 Golden Valley 130 28.63% 303 66.74% 21 4.63% 454 Granite 695 38.76% 1,046 58.34% 52 2.90% 1,793 Hill 3,729 58.36% 2,434 38.09% 227 3.55% 6,390 Jefferson 2,954 43.23% 3,653 53.46% 226 3.31% 6,833 Judith Basin 388 32.58% 752 63.14% 51 4.28% 1,191 Lake 6,916 50.22% 6,491 47.13% 365 2.65% 13,772 Lewis and Clark 20,506 57.70% 14,106 39.69% 927 2.61% 35,539 Liberty 365 37.21% 586 59.73% 30 3.06% 981 Lincoln 2,902 31.08% 6,137 65.73% 298 3.19% 9,337 Madison 1,890 38.11% 2,898 58.44% 171 3.45% 4,959 McCone 227 22.06% 773 75.12% 29 2.82% 1,029 Meagher 319 32.68% 629 64.45% 28 2.87% 976 Mineral 785 38.14% 1,181 57.39% 92 4.47% 2,058 Missoula 41,688 67.62% 18,631 30.22% 1,332 2.16% 61,651 Musselshell 573 23.56% 1,743 71.67% 116 4.77% 2,432 Park 5,114 52.59% 4,357 44.81% 253 2.60% 9,724 Petroleum 58 18.59% 248 79.49% 6 1.92% 312 Phillips 577 27.71% 1,426 68.49% 79 3.79% 2,082 Pondera 1,176 43.80% 1,413 52.63% 96 3.58% 2,685 Powder River 203 20.86% 748 76.88% 22 2.26% 973 Powell 1,026 37.17% 1,641 59.46% 93 3.37% 2,760 Prairie 177 27.11% 450 68.91% 26 3.98% 653 Ravalli 9,156 39.13% 13,622 58.21% 623 2.66% 23,401 Richland 1,136 26.22% 3,017 69.64% 179 4.13% 4,332 Roosevelt 2,013 58.40% 1,346 39.05% 88 2.55% 3,447 Rosebud 1,511 44.88% 1,765 52.42% 91 2.70% 3,367 Sanders 2,071 33.65% 3,856 62.66% 227 3.69% 6,154 Sheridan 712 39.29% 1,017 56.13% 83 4.58% 1,812 Silver Bow 11,672 71.55% 4,246 26.03% 394 2.42% 16,312 Stillwater 1,501 30.86% 3,206 65.91% 157 3.23% 4,864 Sweet Grass 652 31.08% 1,372 65.40% 74 3.53% 2,098 Teton 1,290 40.86% 1,784 56.51% 83 2.63% 3,157 Toole 626 32.90% 1,208 63.48% 69 3.63% 1,903 Treasure 129 31.16% 279 67.39% 6 1.45% 414 Valley 1,545 39.80% 2,137 55.05% 200 5.15% 3,882 Wheatland 315 33.76% 586 62.81% 32 3.43% 933 Wibaux 140 25.83% 390 71.96% 12 2.21% 542 Yellowstone 32,225 46.53% 34,682 50.08% 2,351 3.39% 69,258
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
^ "Montana Voter Turnout - Official Montana Secretary of State Website - Christi Jacobsen" .Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen . February 22, 2018. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2024 .^ Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory ,KULR ^ "Montana Senator Tester says $1.2M raised in 3rd quarter for re-election" . Greatfallstribune.com. October 9, 2017. RetrievedMay 2, 2018 .^a b "WI-Sen, MT-Sen, PA-06, NJ-03, FL-07, NJ-11: Joe Biden Helps These Dems Bring In The Big Blue Wave" .Daily Kos . April 12, 2018.^a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Refuses To Let The Kochs Defeat Jon Tester (D)" .Daily Kos . February 22, 2018.^a b c d Brodey, Sam (August 4, 2017)."Franken, Klobuchar step up early with 2018 campaign cash for endangered Senate colleagues" . MinnPost. RetrievedMay 2, 2018 . ^a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Jon Tester (D) Take On Trump & Mitch McConnell (R. KY)" .Daily Kos . February 24, 2018.^a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey (D. MA) Helps Fellow Net Neutrality Champ Jon Tester (D) Fight Back" .Daily Kos . February 27, 2018.^a b "MT-Sen: Sen. Tom Udall (D. NM) Helps Jon Tester (D) Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump" .Daily Kos . September 27, 2017.^a b Warren sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Tester. ^a b "MT-Sen: Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Helps Jon Tester (D) Fight Back Against GOP's Assault On Medicaid" .Daily Kos . June 30, 2017.^a b "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World" .Council for a Livable World .^a b Muller, Tiffany (April 13, 2017)."End Citizens United Endorses Jon Tester for Senate - End Citizens United" .End Citizens United . ^a b "Montana Conservation Voters and LCV Action Fund Endorse Senator Jon Tester for Re-Election" .League of Conservation Voters . March 21, 2018.^a b Hogue, Ilyse (April 9, 2018)."NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Senator Jon Tester for Re-election - NARAL Pro-Choice America" .NARAL Pro-Choice America . ^a b c "2018 Montana primary election results" (PDF) . RetrievedJune 12, 2019 .^ Caina Calvan, Bobby (July 31, 2017)."Montana auditor says he'll seek US Senate seat" .Great Falls Tribune . RetrievedJuly 31, 2017 . ^ Volz, Matt (May 18, 2017)."Storage company CEO files to run against Tester" .Great Falls Tribune . RetrievedJune 2, 2017 . ^ Lutey, Tom (October 14, 2017)."Former Judge Russell Fagg enters Senate race for Tester's seat" .Billings Gazette ^ Michels, Holly K. (April 11, 2017)."Republican Olszewski says he's going to run against Tester in 2018" .Independent Record . RetrievedApril 11, 2017 . ^ Michels, Holly K. (June 23, 2017)."Belgrade Republican announces candidacy for GOP Senate bid" .Independent Record . RetrievedJuly 5, 2017 . ^ "GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out" .KXLH the original on August 16, 2018. RetrievedAugust 16, 2018 .^ Robillard, Kevin; Schneider, Elena (June 2, 2017)."Montana AG declines Senate run against Tester" .Politico . RetrievedJune 2, 2017 . ^ Caina Calvan, Bobby (June 5, 2017)."Montana attorney general Fox won't run for U.S. Senate" .Great Falls Tribune . RetrievedJune 6, 2017 . ^ King, Jon (September 2, 2016)."Ryan Zinke Hints That Fellow Navy Seal Rob O'Neill May Run for Senate" .KGVO . RetrievedSeptember 19, 2016 . ^ "Endorse Troy Downing for U.S. Senate" . Troydowning.com. Archived fromthe original on June 11, 2018. RetrievedMay 2, 2018 .^ Gersh, Mark (August 18, 2016)."A New Democratic Senate Majority Could be Short-Lived" .National Committee for an Effective Congress . RetrievedSeptember 19, 2016 . ^ Dennison, Mike (September 12, 2017)."Republican Fagg insists he's still 'exploring' U.S. Senate candidacy" .Montana Television Network the original on September 12, 2017. RetrievedSeptember 13, 2017 . ^ "Morning Digest: After six months, Montana GOP still searching for a challenger to Sen. Jon Tester" .Daily Kos Elections . RetrievedJune 2, 2017 .^ Staff, NCEC."Democrats Likely on Defense in 2018 Senate Race" .National Committee for an Effective Congress . RetrievedJune 9, 2017 . ^ Severns, Maggie (September 13, 2016)."Democrats brace against potential 2018 Senate 'disaster' .Politico . RetrievedSeptember 19, 2016 . ^ Schor, Elana; Everett, Burgess (November 18, 2016)."2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators" .Politico . RetrievedNovember 18, 2016 . ^a b "Trump boosts Rosendale in tight Montana Senate race" .Politico ^a b c d "Rosendale touts Ted Cruz, Mike Lee endorsements" .Great Falls Tribune ^a b "Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon endorses Matt Rosendale in Montana Senate primary" .Independent Record ^a b "CatholicVote.org Candidate Fund Endorses Rosendale for Senate" .CatholicVote.org ^a b "CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC ENDORSES MONTANA STATE AUDITOR MATT ROSENDALE FOR U.S. SENATE" .Club for Growth ^a b "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Matt Rosendale for Senate" .FreedomWorks ^a b "Endorsements | Rosendale for U.S. Senate" . Mattformontana.com. Archived fromthe original on May 3, 2018. RetrievedMay 2, 2018 .^a b "Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate in Montana" .Senate Conservatives Fund ^ WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) ^ WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) ^ Ron Murray 1% ^ Drake, Phil (March 5, 2018). "Libertarian says he'll enter Montana U.S. Senate race ".Great Falls Tribune ^a b Brown, Matthew (October 31, 2018)."Libertarian candidate drops out of Montana's U.S. Senate race to back Rosendale" .Independent Record .Associated Press . RetrievedOctober 31, 2018 . ^ Doherty, Brian (October 31, 2018). "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out ".Reason ^ Barber, Ellison; O'Reilly, Andrew (November 6, 2018). "Montana Libertarian candidate walks back endorsement of GOP nominee Rosendale in tight Senate race ".Fox News ^ "Despite Donald Trump Jr. Retweet, Libertarian Senate Candidate Rick Breckenridge Did Not Drop Out" . October 31, 2018.^ Wilson, Reid (July 10, 2018)."Judge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester" .The Hill . RetrievedJuly 27, 2018 . ^ Dennison, Mike (March 12, 2018)."Green Party qualifies for MT ballot; 66 candidates file on final day for 2018 ballot" .KPAX . Archived fromthe original on March 12, 2018. RetrievedMarch 12, 2018 . ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018" .The Cook Political Report . RetrievedMarch 13, 2021 .^ "2018 Senate Ratings" .The Rothenberg Political Report . RetrievedMarch 13, 2021 .^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings" .Sabato's Crystal Ball . RetrievedOctober 11, 2017 .^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings" .Daily Kos ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings" .Fox News . RetrievedJuly 10, 2018 .^ "Key Races: Senate" . RetrievedJuly 15, 2018 .^ "Battle for the Senate 2018" . RetrievedJuly 15, 2018 .^ Silver, Nate (September 11, 2018)."Montana - 2018 Senate Forecast" .FiveThirtyEight . Archived fromthe original on October 8, 2018. RetrievedNovember 1, 2018 . ^ "Gazette opinion: Keep Tester working for Montana in U.S. Senate" .Billings Gazette . October 14, 2018.^ "Tester leads with moderation, civility" .Missoulian . October 21, 2018.^ "Our Candidates - CWA Political" .CWA Political . Archived fromthe original on April 3, 2018. RetrievedOctober 9, 2018 .^ "Jon Tester – Feminist Majority PAC" .feministmajoritypac.org .^ "Candidates We Endorse and Support" .^ "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates" .neafund.org . Archived fromthe original on August 1, 2018. RetrievedOctober 20, 2018 .^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements" .Population Connection . Archived fromthe original on April 5, 2018. RetrievedOctober 27, 2018 .^ Michels, Holly (July 12, 2018)."Vice President Pence coming to Billings to campaign for Rosendale" .Independent Record ^a b "Rosendale heads to Washington for meetings, fundraiser" .AP NEWS . June 12, 2018.^ Corin Cates-Carney (October 23, 2018)."National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Stumps For Rosendale In Montana" .MTPR . RetrievedOctober 26, 2018 . ^ Hann, Derek (October 29, 2018)."U.S. Sen. Rand Paul stumps in Havre in support of Rosendale" .Havre Daily News . RetrievedOctober 31, 2018 . ^ Drake, Phil."Libertarian endorses Rosendale in Senate race" .Great Falls Tribune . ^ Brascia, Dominick (October 25, 2018)."EXCLUSIVE: VETERAN DOWNING SAYS TESTER BAD FOR VETS" .kmmsam.com . ^ Flint, Aaron (October 29, 2018)."BREAKING: CROW TRIBAL CHAIRMAN ENDORSES ROSENDALE FOR SENATE" .newstalk955.com . RetrievedOctober 31, 2018 . ^ "AFP-Montana Launches Six Figure Ad Buy Thanking Matt Rosendale for Expanding Health Care Options" .Americans for Prosperity . August 28, 2018.Archived from the original on August 30, 2018.^ Christian, Peter (August 30, 2018)."MONTANA GUN GROUP GRADES AND ENDORSES POLITICAL CANDIDATES" .NewsTalkKGVO.com .Archived from the original on August 30, 2018. ^ "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests" .NOM Blog . October 17, 2018. Archived fromthe original on November 1, 2018. RetrievedOctober 29, 2018 .^ "National Right to Life endorses Matt Rosendale against Jon Tester for U.S. Senate in Montana" .NRL News Today . June 6, 2018.^ "Your Freedom is Under Attack! Vote On or Before November 6th!" .nrapvf.org . NRA-PVF.Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. RetrievedAugust 16, 2023 .The NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) has endorsed Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate in Montana. ^ Drake, Phil (September 12, 2018)."NRA endorses Gianforte and Rosendale, targets Tester" .Great Falls Tribune Archived from the original on September 22, 2018. ^ "Tea Party Express Endorses Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate" .Tea Party Express . October 23, 2017.^ Matt Rosendale."Honored to be endorsed by the @USChamber in Billings today. The Trump Tax Cuts are working here in Montana- creating more jobs and putting more money back in your pocket!!! #MAGA #MontanaFirst #mtsen #mtpol" .Twitter . ^ "Campaign finance data" . RetrievedOctober 31, 2018 .^ The Trafalgar Group (R) ^ HarrisX ^ Change Research ^ HarrisX ^ HarrisX ^ HarrisX ^ HarrisX ^ HarrisX ^ HarrisX ^ Gravis Marketing ^ University of Montana ^ Montana State University Billings ^ Montana State University Bozeman ^ Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) ^ Gravis Marketing ^ Axis Research (R-NRSC) ^ "AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D)" (PDF) . Archived fromthe original (PDF) on September 28, 2018. RetrievedSeptember 28, 2018 .^ CBS News/YouGov ^ University of Montana ^ WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) ^ Remington Research (R) ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios ^ Gravis Marketing ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios ^ "Montana Secretary of State" .mtelectionresults.gov .^ "Montana Secretary of State" .electionresults.mt.gov . RetrievedAugust 20, 2021 .Official campaign websites
U.S. U.S. (election ) Governors Attorneys State Mayors Alexandria, VA Anaheim, CA Anchorage, AK Auburn, AL Austin, TX Burlington, VT Chula Vista, CA Columbus, GA Fairfax, VA Fort Lauderdale, FL Franklin, VA Irvine, CA Lexington, KY Little Rock, AR Long Beach, CA Louisville, KY Lubbock, TX Nashville, TN (special) Newark, NJ Newport News, VA Oakland, CA Oklahoma City, OK Phoenix, AZ (special) Providence, RI Radford, VA Reno, NV San Bernardino, CA San Francisco, CA (special) San Jose, CA Santa Ana, CA Sioux Falls, SD Tallahassee, FL Virginia Beach, VA (special) Washington, DC Local Anchorage,AK Champaign County,IL Cook County,IL Cuyahoga County,OH El Paso,TX El Paso County,CO Jackson County,MO Jefferson County,MO Los Angeles County,CA Macomb County,MI Orange County,CA Orange County,FL San Diego,CA San Francisco,CA St. Charles County,MO St. Louis County,MO Wayne County,MI Statewide Ballot Related
County results
Precinct results
.jpg)
.jpg)