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2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
← 2012
November 6, 2018
2024 →
Turnout64.85%Increase[1]
 
NomineeKyrsten SinemaMartha McSally
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote1,191,1001,135,200
Percentage49.96%47.61%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Sinema:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McSally:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic

Elections in Arizona

The2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018.[2] IncumbentRepublican SenatorJeff Flake did not seek a second term. The election was held concurrently with agubernatorial election,other elections to the U.S. Senate,elections to theU.S. House of Representatives, and various otherstate and local elections.

Primaries were held on August 28, 2018,[3] three days after the death of longtime U.S. SenatorJohn McCain.[4]Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, whileKyrsten Sinema won theDemocratic nomination.Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day.[5]

TheAssociated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[6] and McSally conceded that day.[7] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since1988. McSally was subsequently appointed by GovernorDoug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis byJon Kyl.

Background

[edit]

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of RepublicansWarren G. Harding,Calvin Coolidge, andHerbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until1952, whenDwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only byBill Clinton's narrow victory in1996. Since then, the state had remained Republican, and was won byDonald Trump with a 3.5% margin in2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[8][better source needed]

IncumbentRepublican SenatorJeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[9] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from formerstate senatorKelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nomineeMitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[10][11][12]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

On the ballot

[edit]
U.S. Representative Martha McSally at the launch of her senatorial bid in January 2018
Former State Senator Kelli Ward at a campaign event prior to the Republican primary in August 2018

Failed to file

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Martha McSally

Federal officials

United States Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Mayors

Individuals

  • Suzanne Klapp, Scottsdale city councilwoman[49]

Organizations

Kelli Ward

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Local officials

U.S. military personnel

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Arpaio		Martha
McSally		Kelli
Ward		OtherUndecided
Data Orbital[74]August 21–22, 2018600± 4.0%18%48%22%1%8%
OH Predictive Insights[75]August 14–15, 2018578± 4.1%13%47%27%–12%
OH Predictive Insights[76]July 23–25, 2018576± 4.1%15%35%27%–23%
Gravis Marketing[77]June 27 – July 2, 2018501± 4.4%24%36%27%–14%
Emerson College[78]June 21–22, 2018305± 5.9%18%32%19%7%[79]23%
Data Orbital[80]June 19–21, 2018550± 4.2%17%38%23%2%21%
Marist College[81]June 17–21, 2018371± 6.7%21%30%28%<1%21%
OH Predictive Insights[82]June 11–12, 2018600± 4.0%14%39%25%–22%
Remington (R)[83][A]May 23–24, 20182,011± 2.3%25%42%23%–10%
Magellan Strategies (R)[84]April 11–12 and 15, 2018755± 3.6%26%36%25%6%7%
OH Predictive Insights[85]April 10–11, 2018302± 5.6%22%27%36%–15%
Data Orbital[86]January 11–15, 2018500± 4.4%22%31%19%–27%
OH Predictive Insights[87]January 9, 2018504± 4.4%29%31%25%–15%
WPA Intelligence (R)[88][A]November 15–16, 2017500± 4.4%–38%36%–26%
OH Predictive Insights[89]November 9, 2017323± 5.5%–34%42%–24%
Revily (R)[90][B]October 28–31, 2017380± 3.0%–21%32%15%[91]34%
Hypothetical polling

with Jay Heiler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jay
Heiler		Martha
McSally		Matt
Salmon		David
Schweikert		John
Shadegg		Kelli
Ward		Undecided
Data Orbital[92]October 26–28, 2017500± 4.4%1%19%10%5%4%26%28%

with Jeff Flake

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jeff
Flake		Jeff
DeWit		Nicholas
Tutora		Kelli
Ward		OtherUndecided
GBA Strategies[93]August 30 – September 7, 2017500± 4.4%31%––58%–11%
JMC Analytics (R)[94]August 26–27, 2017500± 4.4%21%–3%47%–29%
HighGround Public Affairs[95]August 18–19, 2017273± 5.9%28%––43%5%24%
Political Marketing International (R-Ward)[96]February 7, 2017921± 5.0%23%––30%–47%
Remington Research Group[97]November 15–16, 20161,122± 2.9%30%38%–15%–17%
33%42%–––25%
35%35%–––30%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  McSally
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Arpaio
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results[98]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMartha McSally357,62654.57%
RepublicanKelli Ward180,92627.61%
RepublicanJoe Arpaio116,55517.79%
Write-in1910.03%
Total votes655,298100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

On the ballot

[edit]
U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema at a campaign event in October 2018
Attorney Deedra Abboud at a campaign event in April 2017

Failed to file

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher[106][107]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Deedra Abboud

Organizations

Kyrsten Sinema

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Deedra
Abboud		Kyrsten
Sinema		OtherUndecided
Data Orbital[168]June 25–27, 2018550± 4.2%7%63%2%29%
Emerson College[169]June 21–22, 2018260± 6.2%8%51%12%[170]30%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Sinema
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[98]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticKyrsten Sinema404,17079.25%
DemocraticDeedra Abboud105,80020.75%
Total votes509,970100.00%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Removed

[edit]

Green primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Removed

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Green
  •   90-100%
No votes
  •   
Green primary results[98]
PartyCandidateVotes%
GreenAngela Green (write-in)389100.00%
Total votes389100.00%

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[174]TossupOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections[175]Tilt D(flip)November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[176]Lean D(flip)November 5, 2018
CNN[177]TossupOctober 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[178]TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[179]Lean D(flip)November 6, 2018
Daily Kos[180]TossupOctober 26, 2018
Fox News[181]TossupOctober 30, 2018

Endorsements

[edit]
Martha McSally (R)

U.S. executive branch Officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State officials

Local-level officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Former U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D)$19,287,249$20,249,341$1,301,542
Martha McSally (R)$16,211,836$13,688,178$2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[225]

Polling

[edit]
%support010203040506010/31/20179/13/201810/23/201811/3/2018McSallySinemaGreenOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2018 United States S...
Viewsource data.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martha
McSally (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		Angela
Green (G)		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[226]November 4–5, 20181,217± 2.8%47%45%–2%6%
HarrisX[227]November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%44%49%–––
HarrisX[228]November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%46%47%–––
OH Predictive Insights[229]November 2–3, 2018631± 3.9%49%48%0%–1%
Emerson College[230]November 1–3, 2018758± 3.7%48%49%2%–2%
HarrisX[231]November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0%48%46%–––
Research Co.[232]November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%44%45%–1%10%
HarrisX[233]October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0%49%44%–––
Gravis Marketing[234]October 24 – November 2, 20181,165± 2.9%47%46%––7%
HarrisX[235]October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0%48%42%–––
The Trafalgar Group (R)[236]October 30 – November 1, 20182,166± 2.1%47%50%–2%1%
HarrisX[237]October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0%49%42%–––
Vox Populi Polling[238]October 27–30, 2018677± 3.7%48%52%–––
HarrisX[239]October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6%48%43%–––
FOX News[240]October 27–29, 2018643 LV± 3.5%46%46%–3%5%
710 RV± 3.5%44%45%–4%6%
CNN/SSRS[241]October 24–29, 2018702 LV± 4.4%47%51%–0%1%
867 RV± 4.0%45%48%–0%3%
HighGround Public Affairs[242]October 26–28, 2018400± 4.9%47%45%4%–5%
NBC News/Marist College[243]October 23–27, 2018506 LV± 5.4%44%47%6%<1%3%
44%50%–2%4%
793 RV± 4.4%43%45%7%<1%5%
43%49%–2%6%
CBS News/YouGov[244]October 23–26, 2018972± 4.1%44%47%–3%5%
Ipsos[245]October 17–26, 2018799± 4.0%48%46%–3%3%
OH Predictive Insights[246]October 22–23, 2018600± 4.0%52%45%1%–2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[247]October 15–19, 2018606± 4.2%48%46%1%–6%
Data Orbital[248]October 16–17, 2018600± 4.0%41%47%3%1%8%
Change Research (D)[249]October 9–10, 2018783–44%44%––11%
CBS News/YouGov[250]October 2–5, 2018898–44%47%–3%6%
OH Predictive Insights[251]October 1–2, 2018600± 4.0%47%41%4%–8%
FOX News[252]September 29 – October 2, 2018716 LV± 3.5%45%47%–2%6%
806 RV± 3.5%44%45%–2%8%
Vox Populi Polling[253]September 29 – October 1, 2018702± 3.5%52%49%–––
Suffolk University[254]September 27–30, 2018500± 4.4%42%45%2%0%11%
Latino Decisions[255]September 10–25, 2018463 LV–41%47%––11%
610 RV–37%43%––17%
Emerson College[256]September 19–21, 2018650± 4.4%39%45%–4%13%
NBC News/Marist College[257]September 16–20, 2018564 LV± 4.7%43%45%6%<1%6%
45%48%–<1%7%
763 RV± 4.2%41%44%6%<1%8%
44%47%–<1%9%
CNN/SSRS[258]September 11–15, 2018761 LV± 4.3%43%50%–0%3%
854 RV± 4.1%41%48%–1%6%
Ipsos[259]September 5–14, 20181,016± 4.0%44%47%–4%5%
TargetSmart (D)[260]September 8–13, 2018800± 4.0%46%51%–1%3%
FOX News[261]September 8–11, 2018710 LV± 3.5%44%47%–2%5%
801 RV± 3.5%42%46%–3%7%
Gravis Marketing[262]September 5–7, 2018882± 3.3%49%48%––3%
OH Predictive Insights[263]September 5–6, 2018597± 4.0%49%46%––6%
Data Orbital[264]September 4–6, 2018550± 4.2%42%46%–2%[265]9%
OH Predictive Insights[76]July 23–24, 2018600± 4.0%44%48%––8%
Gravis Marketing[266]June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%39%43%––19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[267]June 11 – July 2, 20181,290± 4.5%44%48%––7%
Emerson College[268]June 21–22, 2018650± 4.0%32%40%–9%20%
CBS News/YouGov[269]June 19–22, 2018869 LV–37%45%–7%10%
998 RV± 3.7%34%41%–8%14%
NBC News/Marist College[270]June 17–21, 2018839± 4.5%38%49%–2%11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[271]April 2–23, 20181,667± 4.0%42%51%––7%
OH Predictive Insights[272]April 10–11, 2018600± 4.0%42%48%––10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[273][C]March 15–16, 2018547± 4.2%41%46%––13%
OH Predictive Insights[89]November 9, 2017600± 4.0%45%46%––9%
Revily (R)[90][B]October 28–31, 2017850± 3.4%29%33%––37%
Hypothetical polling

with Kelli Ward

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kelli
Ward (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		OtherUndecided
OH Predictive Insights[76]July 23–24, 2018600± 4.0%41%51%–8%
Gravis Marketing[274]June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%37%46%–17%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[267]June 11 – July 2, 20181,290± 4.5%41%52%–7%
Emerson College[275]June 21–22, 2018650± 4.0%26%43%8%23%
YouGov[276]June 19–22, 2018867 LV± 3.7%38%46%6%9%
996 RV35%43%7%14%
Marist College[81]June 17–21, 2018839± 4.5%38%48%2%12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[271]April 2–23, 20181,667± 4.0%43%51%–6%
OH Predictive Insights[272]April 10–11, 2018600± 4.0%40%50%–10%
OH Predictive Insights[89]November 9, 2017600± 4.0%43%46%–11%
Revily (R-Ward)[277]October 28–31, 2017850± 3.4%34%33%–33%
HighGround Public Affairs[278]October 23–26, 2017500± 4.4%27%34%–39%
HighGround Public Affairs[95]August 18–19, 2017400± 4.9%31%32%–38%

with Joe Arpaio

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Arpaio (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		OtherUndecided
OH Predictive Insights[76]July 23–24, 2018600± 4.0%36%54%–10%
Gravis Marketing[279]June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%33%52%–14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[267]June 11 – July 2, 20181,290± 4.5%34%57%–9%
Emerson College[280]June 21–22, 2018650± 4.0%30%54%8%9%
YouGov[276]June 19–22, 2018868 LV± 3.7%29%49%13%8%
996 RV28%45%13%11%
Marist College[81]June 17–21, 2018839± 4.5%32%57%2%9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[271]April 2–23, 20181,667± 4.0%32%61%–7%
OH Predictive Insights[272]April 10–11, 2018600± 4.0%33%59%–8%

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Morning Consult[281]June 29 – July 9, 20181,641± 2.0%35%42%23%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[282]March 15–16, 2018547± 4.2%47%45%8%

with Jeff Flake

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jeff
Flake (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		Undecided
GBA Strategies[93]August 30 – September 7, 2017600± 4.0%40%47%13%
HighGround Public Affairs[95]August 18–19, 2017400± 4.9%33%41%27%
Public Policy Polling[283]May 13–15, 2016896± 3.3%38%36%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jeff
Flake (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)[284]July 31 – August 1, 2017704± 2.0%31%47%22%

with Matt Salmon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Salmon (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		Undecided
Revily (R-Ward)[277]October 28–31, 2017850± 3.4%30%32%38%

Results

[edit]

The race was too close to call on election day.[285] On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted.[286] On November 8,Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead.[287] Due to the closeness of the vote count, theAssociated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[288] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day.[289] The results were certified on December 3, 2018.[290]

This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat inArizona since 1988.[289] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona.[291]

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticKyrsten Sinema1,191,10049.96%+3.76%
RepublicanMartha McSally1,135,20047.61%−1.62%
GreenAngela Green57,4422.41%N/A
Write-in5660.02%N/A
Total votes2,384,308100.00%N/A
Democraticgain fromRepublican
By county
County[292]Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic		Martha McSally
Republican		Angela Green
Green		Write-inMarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%#%
Apache16,29864.977,81031.139613.83180.078,48833.8325,087
Cochise17,38338.1626,92959.121,2122.66250.05-9,546-20.9645,549
Coconino34,24061.9419,24934.821,7573.18340.0614,99127.1255,280
Gila7,64337.2812,18059.426743.2920.01-4,537-22.1320,499
Graham3,36831.766,87064.773633.4250.05-3,502-33.0210,606
Greenlee1,04240.591,41655.161084.2110.04-374-14.572,567
La Paz1,60931.723,26564.361993.9200.00-1,656-32.645,073
Maricopa732,76150.96672,50546.7732,3712.253150.0260,2564.191,437,952
Mohave19,21426.8850,20970.252,0272.84190.03-30,995-43.3771,469
Navajo16,62445.3718,76751.221,2383.38110.03-2,143-5.8536,640
Pima221,24256.65160,55041.118,7102.23660.0260,69215.54390,568
Pinal50,39542.9363,78254.333,1832.71350.03-13,387-11.40117,395
Santa Cruz9,24168.513,82828.384183.1010.015,41340.1313,488
Yavapai40,16037.0665,30860.262,8702.65300.03-25,148-23.21108,368
Yuma19,88045.4222,53251.481,3513.0940.01-2,652-6.0643,767
Totals1,191,10049.961,135,20047.6157,4422.415660.0255,9002.342,384,308

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Sinema won five of nine congressional districts.[293]

DistrictMcSallySinemaRepresentative
1st46%51%Tom O'Halleran
2nd45%53%Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd33%64%Raúl Grijalva
4th64%33%Paul Gosar
5th55%42%Andy Biggs
6th51%47%David Schweikert
7th21%75%Ruben Gallego
8th55%43%Debbie Lesko
9th36%61%Greg Stanton

Aftermath

[edit]

On December 18, 2018, GovernorDoug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation ofJon Kyl, who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death ofJohn McCain.[294] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019,[295] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties. Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.[citation needed]

Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress, and aspecial election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by DemocratMark Kelly in that special election.[296][297]

Sinema would later leave the Democratic Party to become an independent in December 2022, although she would continue to caucus with them in the Senate until the end of her term.

Voter demographics

[edit]
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupSinemaMcSallyNo
answer		% of
voters
Gender
Men4949247
Women5147253
Age
18–24 years oldN/AN/AN/A4
25–29 years oldN/AN/AN/A4
30–39 years old5739417
40–49 years old5048217
50–64 years old4455129
65 and older5148129
Race
White4553275
BlackN/AN/AN/A2
Latino6830218
AsianN/AN/AN/A1
OtherN/AN/AN/A3
Race and gender
White men4255334
White women4752141
Black menN/AN/AN/A1
Black womenN/AN/AN/A1
Latino men663229
Latina women702829
OthersN/AN/AN/A4
Education
High school or less5046425
Somecollege education4554128
Associate Degree4353410
Bachelor's Degree5247323
Advanced degree6237114
Education and race
White college graduates5545N/A27
White no college degree3958348
Non-white college graduates722719
Non-white no college degree6533216
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees5644N/A15
White women without college degrees4256226
White men with college degrees5347N/A12
White men without college degrees3561422
Non-whites6831125
Military service
Veteran3859314
Non-veteran5445186
Income
Under $30,0006234415
$30,000-$49,9996336118
$50,000-$99,9994849333
$100,000-$199,9994158124
Over $200,0004456N/A9
Party ID
Democrats973N/A32
Republicans1286238
Independents5047331
Party by gender
Democratic men946N/A14
Democratic women991N/A17
Republican men691315
Republican women1683123
Independent men5047318
Independent women5047313
Ideology
Liberals946N/A22
Moderates6335238
Conservatives1484240
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5344315
No4850285
Most important issue facing the country
Health care7720342
Immigration1683131
Economy3960118
Gun policyN/AN/AN/A7
Area type
Urban6039143
Suburban4454251
RuralN/AN/AN/A6
Source:CNN[298]

Notes

[edit]

Partisan clients

  1. ^abThis poll was sponsored by McSally's campaign.
  2. ^abThis poll was sponsored by Ward's campaign.
  3. ^This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care, anAffordable Care Act advocacy group, and is affiliated with Democratic candidates.

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  180. ^"Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings".Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. RetrievedJune 28, 2018.
  181. ^"2018 Senate Power Rankings".Fox News.Archived from the original on July 4, 2018. RetrievedJuly 10, 2018.
  182. ^abSamuels, Brett (October 10, 2018)."George W. Bush, Mitt Romney to visit Arizona to boost Martha McSally".The Hill.Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. RetrievedOctober 10, 2018.
  183. ^Flaherty, Joseph (October 29, 2018)."Family of Betsy DeVos Boosts Martha McSally's Campaign With Donations".Phoenix New Times.Archived from the original on October 30, 2018. RetrievedOctober 30, 2018.
  184. ^Mike Pence."Big win for @MarthaMcSally in Arizona! Martha served our nation with distinction in the @usairforce & she will be a great addition to the US Senate helping enact the @realDonaldTrump agenda. Get out and support Martha in November!". Twitter.Archived from the original on August 30, 2018. RetrievedAugust 29, 2018.
  185. ^"Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Endorses Martha McSally For US Senate". McSally for Senate. November 2, 2018.Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. RetrievedNovember 2, 2018.
  186. ^Donald J. Trump."Martha McSally, running in the Arizona Primary for U.S. Senate, was endorsed by rejected Senator Jeff Flake....and turned it down – a first! Now Martha, a great U.S. Military fighter jet pilot and highly respected member of Congress, WINS BIG. Congratulations, and on to November!". Twitter.Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. RetrievedAugust 29, 2018.
  187. ^Donald J. Trump."Martha McSally is an extraordinary woman. She was a very talented fighter jet pilot and is now a highly respected member of Congress. She is Strong on Crime, the Border and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Loves our Military and our Vets. Has my total and complete Endorsement!". Twitter.Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. RetrievedAugust 29, 2018.
  188. ^John Boozman."As a USAF fighter pilot, @MarthaMcSally served bravely & honorably—blazing a bold trail for girls and young women. In Congress she's a leader and powerful advocate for our military, veterans & border security. She'd be a great addition to the US Senate. Good luck Martha! #AZSen". Twitter.
  189. ^McSally For Senate."Excited to have Senator Susan Collins in town this week! #AZSEN". Twitter.
  190. ^Joni Ernst.".@MarthaMcSally and I wore uniforms – not tutus ... #Veterans need strong voices for them in the Senate. Vote for Martha! #AZSEN". Twitter.Archived from the original on October 26, 2018. RetrievedOctober 26, 2018.
  191. ^"Lindsey Graham on Twitter". Twitter.
  192. ^"Liz Cheney on Twitter". Twitter.
  193. ^"Mitt Romney, Gov. Doug Ducey rally for Martha McSally".The Arizona Republic. RetrievedOctober 17, 2018.
  194. ^"State Senator Karen Fann Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate". McSally for Senate. October 24, 2018.Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. RetrievedNovember 2, 2018.
  195. ^"Former Representative Steve Pierce Endorses Martha McSally for Senate". McSally for Senate. October 23, 2018.Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. RetrievedOctober 23, 2018.
  196. ^Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (November 1, 2018)."Jan Brewer, Kelli Ward cut radio ad to help Martha McSally in U.S. Senate race".The Arizona Republic. RetrievedNovember 2, 2018.
  197. ^"Maricopa County Attorney Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate".McSally for Senate. October 3, 2018.Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. RetrievedOctober 3, 2018.
  198. ^"Rudy Giuliani on Twitter". Twitter.
  199. ^Kimberly Guilfoyle."Great to campaign with ⁦@MarthaMcSally⁩ AZ deserves a strong conservative that supports ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ ... Trump Jr. attends GOP Get Out the Vote rally". Twitter.Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. RetrievedNovember 4, 2018.
  200. ^"Campaign officials: Trump Jr. to campaign for McSally". Fox 10. October 29, 2018.Archived from the original on October 30, 2018. RetrievedNovember 9, 2018.
  201. ^"CCAGW PAC Endorses Rep. McSally for U.S. Senate, Three Arizona House Candidates". CCAGW PAC. September 25, 2018.Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. RetrievedSeptember 30, 2018.
  202. ^"Small Business Endorses Congresswoman McSally for the U.S. Senate". NFIB. October 22, 2018. RetrievedOctober 23, 2018.
  203. ^"Editorial: Courier offers picks in partisan races, ballot questions".The Daily Courier. October 20, 2018.Archived from the original on November 5, 2018. RetrievedOctober 23, 2018.
  204. ^"Martha McSally for Senate".National Review. October 23, 2018.Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. RetrievedOctober 23, 2018.
  205. ^Barack Obama."Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.Archived from the original on October 2, 2018. RetrievedOctober 2, 2018.
  206. ^"Obama endorses Kyrsten Sinema and Democrats in Arizona governor, AG races". RetrievedOctober 16, 2018.
  207. ^Brian Schatz."I'm also sending money to @kyrstensinema because she's in a very tough race for Senate in Arizona. Please help". Twitter.Archived from the original on October 9, 2018. RetrievedOctober 24, 2018.
  208. ^"AZ-Sen: Rep. Conor Lamb (D. PA) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Get Ready To Defeat Martha McSally (R)". Daily Kos. August 29, 2018.
  209. ^Grant Woods.".@KyrstenSinema is a strong and principled leader who will be a great senator for Arizona. As a former Attorney General, I'm proud to endorse Kyrsten because I know that when it comes to keeping our families safe, Kyrsten is tough as nails. #AZsen". Twitter.Archived from the original on September 29, 2018. RetrievedOctober 2, 2018.
  210. ^Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (November 1, 2018)."Green Party candidate drops out, throws support to Kyrsten Sinema in Senate race".azcentral.
  211. ^Amy Schumer."News". Twitter.
  212. ^Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018)."END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). RetrievedOctober 20, 2018 – viaTwitter.
  213. ^McCubbin III, George (September 8, 2018)."AFGE | AFGE Endorses Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate".www.afge.org. American Federation of Government Employees District 12.Archived from the original on September 10, 2018. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2018.
  214. ^"Endorsements". Arizona AFL–CIO. August 10, 2018.Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. RetrievedOctober 10, 2018.
  215. ^"Carpenters 2018 Midterm Arizona Endorsements | Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters".swcarpenters.org.Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. RetrievedOctober 27, 2018.
  216. ^"Arizona – Official UAW Endorsements".uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.Archived from the original on October 28, 2018. RetrievedOctober 27, 2018.
  217. ^"Retiree Group Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate – Retired Americans". Retired Americans. September 19, 2018.Archived from the original on October 29, 2018. RetrievedOctober 29, 2018.
  218. ^"Kyrsten Sinema – Feminist Majority PAC".feministmajoritypac.org.Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. RetrievedOctober 27, 2018.
  219. ^"Victory Fund Endorses Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema in Pivotal U.S. Senate Race". LGBTQ Victory Fund. November 9, 2017.Archived from the original on November 11, 2017. RetrievedNovember 11, 2017.
  220. ^"Candidates We Endorse and Support – NCPSSM". National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. RetrievedOctober 9, 2018.
  221. ^"Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements".Population Connection.Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. RetrievedOctober 27, 2018.
  222. ^"Endorsed Candidates | Rachel's Action Network".rachelsactionnetwork.org.Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. RetrievedOctober 27, 2018.
  223. ^"Candidates – Run with Pride | Electing LGBTQ+ Candidates to Congress".runwithpride.org.Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. RetrievedOctober 27, 2018.
  224. ^"Don't believe the attack ads. Here's who Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally really are".The Arizona Republic. October 21, 2018.
  225. ^"Campaign finance data".Archived from the original on September 11, 2018. RetrievedOctober 31, 2018.
  226. ^The Trafalgar Group (R)
  227. ^HarrisX
  228. ^HarrisX
  229. ^OH Predictive Insights
  230. ^Emerson College
  231. ^HarrisX
  232. ^Research Co.
  233. ^HarrisX
  234. ^Gravis Marketing
  235. ^HarrisX
  236. ^The Trafalgar Group (R)
  237. ^HarrisX
  238. ^Vox Populi Polling
  239. ^HarrisX
  240. ^FOX News
  241. ^CNN/SSRS
  242. ^HighGround Public AffairsArchived October 30, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  243. ^NBC News/Marist College
  244. ^CBS News/YouGov
  245. ^Ipsos
  246. ^OH Predictive Insights
  247. ^NYT Upshot/Siena College
  248. ^Data OrbitalArchived October 19, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  249. ^Change Research (D)
  250. ^CBS News/YouGov
  251. ^OH Predictive Insights
  252. ^FOX News
  253. ^Vox Populi Polling
  254. ^Suffolk UniversityArchived October 3, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  255. ^Latino Decisions
  256. ^Emerson College
  257. ^NBC News/Marist College
  258. ^CNN/SSRS
  259. ^Ipsos
  260. ^TargetSmart (D)Archived September 19, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  261. ^FOX News
  262. ^Gravis MarketingArchived September 9, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  263. ^OH Predictive Insights
  264. ^Data OrbitalArchived September 12, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  265. ^Adam Kokesh (L) with 2%
  266. ^Gravis MarketingArchived July 9, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  267. ^abcSurveyMonkey/Axios
  268. ^Emerson CollegeArchived September 6, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  269. ^CBS News/YouGov
  270. ^NBC News/Marist College
  271. ^abcSurveyMonkey/Axios
  272. ^abcOH Predictive Insights
  273. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  274. ^Gravis MarketingArchived July 9, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  275. ^Emerson CollegeArchived September 6, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  276. ^abYouGov
  277. ^abRevily (R-Ward)
  278. ^HighGround Public AffairsArchived November 8, 2017, at theWayback Machine
  279. ^Gravis MarketingArchived July 9, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  280. ^Emerson CollegeArchived September 6, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  281. ^Morning ConsultArchived July 16, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  282. ^Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
  283. ^Public Policy Polling
  284. ^Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)Archived August 4, 2017, at theWayback Machine
  285. ^Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (November 7, 2018)."The McSally-Sinema Senate race is too close to call. Now what happens?".The Arizona Republic.
  286. ^"Counting continues in tight Arizona Senate race".KGUN 9 Tucson News. November 7, 2018.
  287. ^Arkin, James (November 8, 2018)."Sinema takes slim lead in too-close-to-call Arizona Senate race".POLITICO.
  288. ^Zarrell, Matt (November 12, 2018)."Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Declared Winner in Arizona Senate Race". ABC News. RetrievedNovember 12, 2018.
  289. ^abLeingang, Rachel."Martha McSally concedes to Kyrsten Sinema after 'hard-fought battle'".The Arizona Republic.
  290. ^"It's officially over: Top Arizona officials certify November election results".KTAR.com. December 3, 2018.
  291. ^"Kyrsten Sinema Becomes First Female Senator Elected From Arizona".Roll Call. November 13, 2018.
  292. ^"2018 Election Information".2018 Election Information | Arizona Secretary of State. Arizona Department of State. RetrievedMay 16, 2020.
  293. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::283ef00f-9b80-4547-984f-74c25f554eef
  294. ^Martin, Jonathan; Hakim, Danny (September 4, 2018)."Jon Kyl, Former Senator, Will Replace McCain in Arizona".The New York Times. RetrievedDecember 19, 2018.
  295. ^"Kyrsten Sinema, Martha McSally sworn in as US senators".12news.com. January 3, 2019.
  296. ^"Lawsuit Accuses Arizona Governor of Violating Constitution Over Appointment to John McCain's Senate Seat".Fortune.
  297. ^LeVine, Marianne (November 4, 2020)."Kelly defeats McSally in Arizona Senate race".POLITICO.
  298. ^"Arizona Senate Election exit poll".CNN. RetrievedMarch 29, 2019.

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