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2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas

← 2016
November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)
2020 →

All 4 Arkansas seats to theUnited States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Last election40
Seats won40
Seat changeSteadySteady
Popular vote556,339312,978
Percentage62.56%35.19%
SwingDecrease 8.60%Increase 24.77%

District results
County results

Republican

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Democratic

  50–60%

Elections in Arkansas
Seal of Arkansas
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The2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, to elect the fourU.S. representatives from theU.S. state ofArkansas, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. Primaries were held on May 22, 2018. The elections and primaries coincided with the elections and primaries of other federal and state offices. Polls were open from 7:30 AM to 7:30 PMCST.[1] This election marked the first time in eight years where theDemocrats contested every seat.

Overview

[edit]
Popular vote
Republican
62.56%
Democratic
35.19%
Libertarian
2.21%
Other
0.04%
House seats
Republican
100%
Democratic
0%

District

[edit]

Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas by district:[2]

DistrictRepublicanDemocraticOthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1138,75768.95%57,90728.77%4,5812.28%201,245100.0%Republican hold
District 2132,12552.13%116,13545.82%5,1932.05%253,453100.0%Republican hold
District 3148,71764.78%74,95232.65%6,0392.57%229,568100.0%Republican hold
District 4136,74066.74%63,98431.23%4,1682.03%204,892100.0%Republican hold
Total556,33962.56%312,97835.19%19,9812.25%889,298100.0%

District 1

[edit]
2018 Arkansas's 1st congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeRick CrawfordChintan Desai
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote138,75757,907
Percentage68.9%28.8%

County results
Crawford:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Desai:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

Rick Crawford
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Rick Crawford
Republican

See also:Arkansas's 1st congressional district

Incumbent RepublicanRick Crawford, who had represented the district since 2011, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 76% of the vote in 206. The district had aPVI of R+16.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Withdrawn
[edit]
  • Robert Butler

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[5]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[6]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RCP[8]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[9]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
538[10]Safe RNovember 7, 2018
CNN[11]Safe ROctober 31, 2018
Politico[12]Safe RNovember 2, 2018

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Crawford (R)
Chintan
Desai (D)
Elvis
Presley (L)
Undecided
Hendrix College[13]September 5–7, 2018422± 4.7%57%22%3%18%

Results

[edit]
Arkansas' 1st congressional district, 2018[14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRick Crawford (incumbent)138,75768.9
DemocraticChintan Desai57,90728.8
LibertarianElvis Presley4,5812.3
Total votes201,245100.0
Republicanhold

District 2

[edit]
2018 Arkansas's 2nd congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeFrench HillClarke Tucker
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote132,125116,135
Percentage52.1%45.8%

County results
Hill:     60–70%     70–80%
Tucker:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

French Hill
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

French Hill
Republican

See also:Arkansas's 2nd congressional district

Incumbent RepublicanFrench Hill, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2016. The district had aPVI of R+7.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The 2nd district was included on the initial list of Republican-held seats being targeted by theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[16]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Gwendolynn Millen Combs, teacher and businesswoman[18]
  • Jonathan Dunkley[19]
  • Paul Spencer, teacher and activist[20]
Declined
[edit]

Primary results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticClarke Tucker23,32557.8
DemocraticGwen Combs8,18820.3
DemocraticPaul Spencer5,06312.6
DemocraticJohnathan Dunkley3,7689.3
Total votes40,344100.0

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Joe Swafford, residential appraiser

General election

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Clarke Tucker (D)
Organizations

Debates

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
French
Hill (R)
Clarke
Tucker (D)
Joe
Swafford (L)
Undecided
Hendrix College[24]October 17–18, 2018590± 4.0%51%40%2%7%
Hendrix College[13]September 5–7, 2018428± 4.7%50%40%2%8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[25]April 16–17, 2018610± 4.0%47%42%11%

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[5]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[6]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7]Lean RNovember 5, 2018
RCP[8]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[9]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
538[10]Likely RNovember 7, 2018
CNN[11]Lean ROctober 31, 2018
Politico[12]Lean RNovember 2, 2018

Results

[edit]
Arkansas' 2nd congressional district, 2018[14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanFrench Hill (incumbent)132,12552.1
DemocraticClarke Tucker116,13545.8
LibertarianJoe Swafford5,1932.1
Total votes253,453100.0
Republicanhold

District 3

[edit]
2018 Arkansas's 3rd congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeSteve WomackJoshua Mahony
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote148,71774,952
Percentage64.7%32.6%

County results
Womack:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. Representative before election

Steve Womack
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Steve Womack
Republican

See also:Arkansas's 3rd congressional district

Incumbent RepublicanSteve Womack, who had represented the district since 2011, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 77% of the vote in 2016. The district had aPVI of R+19.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Robb Ryerse, pastor[27]

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results[22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanSteve Womack (incumbent)47,75784.2
RepublicanRobb Ryerse8,98815.8
Total votes56,745100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Joshua Mahony, president of the Arkansas Single Parent Scholarship Fund and former chairman of the Fayetteville Airport Commission[28]

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Michael Kalagias, retired teacher and volunteer firefighter

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[5]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[6]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RCP[8]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[9]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
538[10]Safe RNovember 7, 2018
CNN[11]Safe ROctober 31, 2018
Politico[12]Safe RNovember 2, 2018

Campaign

[edit]

This was the first time since he was first elected in2010 that Womack had faced a Democrat in the general election, having only had opposition from minor parties since.

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Womack (R)
Josh
Mahony (D)
Michael
Kalagias (L)
Undecided
Hendrix College[13]September 5–7, 2018428± 4.7%53%31%5%11%

Results

[edit]
Arkansas' 3rd congressional district, 2018[14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanSteve Womack (incumbent)148,71764.7
DemocraticJoshua Mahony74,95232.6
LibertarianMichael Kalagias5,8992.6
Write-in1400.1
Total votes229,708100.0
Republicanhold

District 4

[edit]
2018 Arkansas's 4th congressional district election

← 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeBruce WestermanHayden Shamel
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote136,74063,984
Percentage66.7%31.2%

County results
Westerman:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Shamel:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Bruce Westerman
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Bruce Westerman
Republican

See also:Arkansas's 4th congressional district

Incumbent RepublicanBruce Westerman, who had represented the district since 2015, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 75% of the vote in 2016. The district had aPVI of R+17.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Randy Caldwell, preacher[30]

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results[22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanBruce Westerman (incumbent)40,20179.8
RepublicanRandy Caldwell10,15120.2
Total votes50,352100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Hayden Shamel, teacher[31]

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominee
[edit]
  • Tom Canada, manufacturing lead

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[5]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Inside Elections[6]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RCP[8]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos[9]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
538[10]Safe RNovember 7, 2018
CNN[11]Safe ROctober 31, 2018
Politico[12]Safe RNovember 2, 2018

Debate

[edit]
2018 Arkansas's 4th congressional district debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanDemocraticLibertarian
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
Bruce WestermanHayden ShamelTom Canada
1Oct. 8, 2018AETNSteve Barnes[32]PPA

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bruce
Westerman (R)
Hayden
Shamel (D)
Tom
Canada (L)
Undecided
Hendrix College[13]September 5–7, 2018423± 4.7%54%24%5%17%

Results

[edit]
Arkansas' 4th congressional district, 2018[14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanBruce Westerman (incumbent)136,74066.8
DemocraticHayden Shamel63,98431.2
LibertarianTom Canada3,9521.9
Write-in2160.1
Total votes204,892100.0
Republicanhold

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2016 Arkansas Code: Title 7, Chapter 5, Subchapter 3; § 7-5-304 - Opening and closing polls -- Time".Justia; US law.Archived from the original on March 9, 2018. RetrievedMarch 9, 2018.
  2. ^Johnson, Cheryl L. (February 28, 2019)."Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 2018".Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. RetrievedApril 27, 2019.
  3. ^"FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy"(PDF). RetrievedJuly 1, 2019.
  4. ^"Chintan Desai Announces Race for AR 1st District Congress Seat".ARKANSASMATTERS. November 17, 2017. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  5. ^abcd"2018 House Race Ratings".Cook Political Report. RetrievedOctober 30, 2018.
  6. ^abcd"2018 House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedNovember 5, 2018.
  7. ^abcd"2018 House".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedNovember 5, 2018.
  8. ^abcd"Battle for the House 2018". RCP. RetrievedNovember 5, 2018.
  9. ^abcd"Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings".Daily Kos. RetrievedNovember 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  10. ^abcdSilver, Nate (August 16, 2018)."2018 House Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on August 16, 2018. RetrievedNovember 6, 2018.
  11. ^abcd"CNN's 2018 Race Ratings".cnn.com. Turner Broadcasting System. Archived fromthe original on October 31, 2018. RetrievedJuly 30, 2023.
  12. ^abcd"Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election".POLITICO. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2018.
  13. ^abcdHendrix College
  14. ^abcd"2018 Arkansas general election results".Arkansas Secretary of State. RetrievedJune 9, 2019.
  15. ^"FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy"(PDF). RetrievedJuly 1, 2019.
  16. ^Cheney, Kyle (January 30, 2017)."Amid Democratic doldrums, DCCC identifies 2018 targets".Politico. RetrievedMarch 23, 2017.
  17. ^Brantley, Max."Rep. Clarke Tucker announces race for French Hill's 2nd District congressional seat".Arkansas Times. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  18. ^"FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy"(PDF). RetrievedJuly 1, 2019.
  19. ^Brantley, Max."A 4th Democratic candidate for 2nd District Congress".Arkansas Times. RetrievedApril 15, 2018.
  20. ^THV11 Digital Team (July 13, 2017)."Paul Spencer officially announces campaign to challenge Rep. French Hill". RetrievedJuly 13, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  21. ^Max Brantley (April 28, 2017)."Political speculation: A Democrat to run for 2nd District Congress".arktimes.com. Arkansas Times. Archived fromthe original on August 10, 2019. RetrievedAugust 3, 2023.
  22. ^abc"2018 Arkansas primary election results". RetrievedJune 9, 2019.
  23. ^"Red to Blue".dccc.org/. DCCC. Archived fromthe original on October 31, 2018. RetrievedJuly 20, 2023.
  24. ^Hendrix College
  25. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  26. ^"FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy"(PDF). RetrievedJuly 1, 2019.
  27. ^Jilani, Zaid (May 19, 2017)."MEET THE PASTOR RUNNING AS A PROGRESSIVE REPUBLICAN TO GET BIG MONEY OUT OF POLITICS".The Intercept. RetrievedSeptember 2, 2017.
  28. ^DeMillo, Andrew (May 8, 2017)."Arkansas Scholarship Fund Head Says He'll Run for Congress".U.S. News & World Report. RetrievedMay 8, 2017.
  29. ^"FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy"(PDF). RetrievedJuly 1, 2019.
  30. ^"Forms lacking for 2 Arkansas congressional candidates, FEC says".NWADG.com. RetrievedApril 15, 2018.
  31. ^"FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy"(PDF). RetrievedJuly 1, 2019.
  32. ^YouTube

External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites for first district candidates

Official campaign websites for second district candidates

Official campaign websites for third district candidates

Official campaign websites for fourth district candidates

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