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2018 Iowa gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

See also:2018 United States gubernatorial elections

2018 Iowa gubernatorial election

← 2014
November 6, 2018
2022 →
Turnout61.15%Increase8.44pp
 
NomineeKim ReynoldsFred Hubbell
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Running mateAdam GreggRita Hart
Popular vote667,275630,986
Percentage50.26%47.53%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Reynolds:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Hubbell:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%

Governor before election

Kim Reynolds
Republican

ElectedGovernor

Kim Reynolds
Republican

Elections in Iowa
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The2018 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. IncumbentRepublican GovernorKim Reynolds ran for election to a full term, facingDemocratic businessmanFred Hubbell,Libertarian Jake Porter, and independent candidate Gary Siegwarth.

On election day, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote, a 2.8% margin of victory, and carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. This was the first Iowa gubernatorial election since1998 in which the winner was of the same party as theincumbent president.

Background

[edit]

After the2016 presidential election, PresidentDonald Trump nominated then-GovernorTerry Branstad to be theUnited States Ambassador to China. When Branstad was confirmed by theUnited States Senate, he resigned as Iowa governor to assume the ambassadorship on May 24, 2017.Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds then became governor of Iowa.[1]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kim Reynolds
Newspapers
Politicians

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanKim Reynolds (incumbent)94,11898.63
RepublicanWrite-ins1,3071.37
Total votes95,425100

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Nate Boulton (withdrew)
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations
Cathy Glasson
Elected officials
Iowa Democratic Party officials
  • Alex Anderson, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee affirmative action chairperson[61]
  • Evan Burger,4th District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
  • Lindsey Ellickson, Linn County Democratic Party central committee member[61]
  • Jessica Fears, 4th District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
  • Mason Fraker,Henry County Democratic Party vice-chairman[61]
  • Jason Frerichs, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party Progressive Caucus[61]
  • Dylan P. Funk, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member, vice-chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party Progressive Caucus[61]
  • Jon Green, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
  • Holly Herbert,3rd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
  • Sarah J. Hinds,Linn County Democratic Party credentials committee chairperson[61]
  • Kate Revaux, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
  • Nora Taft,2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member[61]
Labor union leaders
  • Chris Laursen,UAW Local 74 president[61]
Labor unions
Organizations
Fred Hubbell
Statewide officials
State legislators
Newspapers
Andy McGuire
Individuals
John Norris
Individuals
  • Brad Anderson, 2014 Democratic Secretary of State nominee
  • Marti Anderson, state representative
  • Daryll Beal, former state senator
  • Tom Hockensmith, Polk County Supervisor
  • Marcia Nichols, former political director for AFSCME 61
  • Jo Oldson, state representative
  • Brian Quirk, former state representative
  • Don Ruby, Iowa Democratic Party Secretary
  • Dave Schroeder, former state representative
  • Norm Sterzenbach, former executive director, Iowa Democratic Party
  • Rod Sullivan, Johnson County Supervisor
  • Roger Thomas, former state representative
  • Travis Weipert, Johnson County Auditor
  • Andrew Wenthe, mayor of Fayette, former state representative
Todd Prichard (withdrew)
Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Nate
Boulton
Cathy
Glasson
Fred
Hubbell
Andrea
McGuire
Jon
Neiderbach
John
Norris
Ross
Wilburn
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company[77]May 13–15, 2018501± 4.4%20%13%31%5%5%3%10%14%
Remington[78]May 5–6, 20182,315± 2.0%20%7%46%3%5%1%18%
20-20 Insight[79]November 8–10, 2017762± 3.6%13%6%22%3%2%5%1%47%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Hubbell—70–80%
  Hubbell—60–70%
  Hubbell—50–60%
  Hubbell—40–50%
  Hubbell—<40%
  Glasson—<40%
  Norris—60–70%
  Boulton—<40%
Democratic primary results[15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticFred Hubbell99,24555.41
DemocraticCathy Glasson36,81520.55
DemocraticJohn Norris20,49811.44
DemocraticAndy McGuire9,4045.25
DemocraticNate Boulton(withdrawn)9,0825.07
DemocraticRoss Wilburn3,8802.17
DemocraticWrite-ins2000.01
Total votes179,124100

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Libertarian Party presidential nomineeGary Johnson received 3.8 percent of the votes in Iowa in 2016, surpassing the 2 percent threshold to attain full political party status.[80] As a result, the Libertarian Party was allowed to hold a primary to select a nominee.[80]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]
  • Jake Porter, business consultant

Declared

[edit]
  • Marco Battaglia, musician[81]
  • Jake Porter, nominee for Secretary of State in 2010 and 2014[82][83][84]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jake Porter
Newspapers

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianJake Porter99153.92
LibertarianMarco Battaglia70538.36
LibertarianWrite-ins1427.73
Total votes1,838100

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Brent Roske (withdrew)

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
DatesLocationReynoldsHubbellLink
October 17, 2018Sioux City,IowaParticipantParticipantFull debate[93] -C-SPAN
October 21, 2018Davenport,IowaParticipantParticipantFull debate[94] -C-SPAN

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[95]TossupOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post[96]TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[97]Lean D(flip)November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[98]Tilt D(flip)November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[99]Lean D(flip)November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[100]TossupNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos[101]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Fox News[102][a]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Politico[103]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Governing[104]TossupNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

[edit]
%support010203040501/31/201810/22/201811/4/2018ReynoldsHubbellOtherOpinion polling for the 2018 Iowa gubernatorial election
Viewsource data.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Fred
Hubbell (D)
Jake
Porter (L)
OtherUndecided
Change Research[105]November 2–4, 201896146%49%3%1%[106]
Selzer & Company[107]October 30 – November 2, 2018801± 3.5%44%46%2%1%7%
Emerson College[108]October 29 – November 1, 20181,462± 2.7%49%45%2%5%
University of Iowa[109]October 8–22, 201845240%48%5%6%
Selzer & Company[110]September 17–20, 2018555± 4.2%41%43%7%0%9%
Emerson College[111]September 6–8, 20181,000± 3.2%31%36%7%26%
Selzer & Company[112]January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%42%37%12%10%
Hypothetical polling

with Nate Boulton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Nate
Boulton (D)
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company[112]January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%41%37%11%11%

with Cathy Glasson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Cathy
Glasson (D)
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company[112]January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%44%31%14%12%

with generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
20/20 Insights (D-Mowrer)[113]June 19–21, 2017526± 4.3%44%39%17%

with John Norris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
John
Norris (D)
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company[112]January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%41%30%14%15%

with Andy McGuire

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Andy
McGuire (D)
OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company[112]January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%42%30%15%13%

Results

[edit]

While pre-election polls showed Reynolds trailing Hubbell,[114] Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote on election day, primarily by sweeping every county west of Des Moines and dominating the 4th Congressional District (she lost the other three).[115] Ultimately, she carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties.[116] She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right.[117]

Iowa gubernatorial election, 2018[118]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanKim Reynolds (incumbent)667,27550.26%−8.73%
DemocraticFred Hubbell630,98647.53%+10.26%
LibertarianJake Porter21,4261.61%−0.19%
IndependentGary Siegwarth7,4630.56%N/A
Write-in4880.04%N/A
Total votes1,327,638100.00%N/A
Republicanhold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the state, Hubbell won three of four congressional districts.[119]

DistrictReynoldsHubbellRepresentative
1st48%49%Abby Finkenauer
2nd47%51%Dave Loebsack
3rd47%51%Cindy Axne
4th59%39%Steve King

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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  2. ^Noble, Jason (June 15, 2017)."Kim Reynolds acknowledges plan to seek full term in 2018".Des Moines Register. RetrievedMarch 17, 2021.
  3. ^"Ron Corbett to run for Iowa governor".The Gazette. June 20, 2017.Archived from the original on June 21, 2017. RetrievedJune 20, 2017.
  4. ^Morelli, BA (April 5, 2018)."Judge: Ron Corbett will not appear on Iowa GOP primary ballot".Sioux City Journal. RetrievedApril 5, 2018.
  5. ^Allen, Paige (July 1, 2017)."Boone City Council member announces run for Iowa governor".KWQC-TV. Archived fromthe original on July 4, 2017. RetrievedJuly 3, 2017.
  6. ^Johnson, Gena."Ray announces withdrawal from GOP primary race for Governor".The Ames Tribune.Archived from the original on February 10, 2018.
  7. ^Costa, Robert (February 9, 2015)."Longtime Iowa governor says he is not likely to run again".The Washington Post. RetrievedMarch 6, 2015.
  8. ^Hanson, Alex (July 1, 2015)."Branstad won't rule out another term".Iowa State Daily.Archived from the original on April 22, 2016. RetrievedJuly 13, 2016.
  9. ^Byrnes, Jesse (December 7, 2016)."Steve King mulling run for governor".TheHill.Archived from the original on December 9, 2016.
  10. ^Koss, Emily (June 2, 2017)."Steve King Running for Another Term in Congress".WHO-DT. RetrievedJune 2, 2017.
  11. ^Steffi Lee (December 7, 2016)."Kim Reynolds slated to become the first female governor of Iowa".CBS2.Archived from the original on December 9, 2016. RetrievedDecember 8, 2016.
  12. ^Noble, Jason (December 19, 2016)."Hinting at gubernatorial run, Cedar Rapids mayor won't seek re-election".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedDecember 19, 2016.
  13. ^"OUR OPINION: Kim Reynolds represents best choice for governor".Sioux City Journal. October 28, 2018.
  14. ^"Donor Lookup".
  15. ^ab"Canvass summary"(PDF).sos.iowa.gov. 2018.
  16. ^Noble, Jason (July 17, 2017)."Fred Hubbell is officially running for governor".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedJuly 17, 2017.
  17. ^Noble, Jason (September 19, 2017)."Union leader Cathy Glasson makes it official, is running for governor".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2017.
  18. ^Noble, Jason (April 10, 2017)."Andy McGuire is running for Iowa governor".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedApril 10, 2017.
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  21. ^Ufheil, Angela (August 14, 2017)."Former mayor of Iowa City seeks Democratic nomination for Iowa governor".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedAugust 14, 2017.
  22. ^abcNoble, Jason (May 4, 2017)."Democrat Nate Boulton announces run for governor".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedMay 4, 2017.
  23. ^Noble, Jason (January 4, 2017)."Democrat Rich Leopold to run for governor".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedJanuary 4, 2017.
  24. ^abRynard, Pat (January 4, 2017)."Who Is Rich Leopold, Democrats' 1st Gubernatorial Candidate?".Iowa Starting Line. RetrievedJanuary 4, 2017.
  25. ^Petroski, William (June 7, 2017)."Democrat Rich Leopold drops out of Iowa governor's race".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedJune 7, 2017.
  26. ^abcRynard, Pat (March 27, 2017)."The State Of Iowa Democrats' Gubernatorial Primary".Iowa Starting Line. RetrievedMarch 27, 2017.
  27. ^Tibbetts, Ed (April 2, 2017)."Matson considering bid for governor".Quad-City Times. RetrievedApril 5, 2017.
  28. ^"Democrat Mike Matson ends campaign for governor". Bleeding Heartland. July 1, 2017. RetrievedJuly 1, 2017.
  29. ^"IA-Gov: Democrat Jon Neiderbach launching campaign soon".Bleeding Heartland. January 30, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 1, 2017.
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  31. ^Tibbetts, Ed (May 16, 2017)."Todd Prichard announces run for governor".The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. RetrievedMay 16, 2017.
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  33. ^Mendenhall, Mike (January 19, 2017)."Allen rules out 2018 bid for governor".Newton Daily News. RetrievedJanuary 19, 2017.
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  41. ^abcdefghijkRynard, Pat (April 10, 2017)."Andy McGuire Kicks Off Gubernatorial Bid – Here's Who Backs Her".Iowa Starting Line. RetrievedApril 10, 2017.
  42. ^Hayworth, Bret (May 1, 2017)."Sioux City's Hall mulls run for governor".Sioux City Journal. RetrievedMay 12, 2017.
  43. ^abHayworth, Bret (November 20, 2017)."Hall endorses Hubbell for Iowa governor".Sioux City Journal. RetrievedNovember 21, 2017.
  44. ^"IA-Gov: Boulton, Hubbell lead in early legislative endorsements".Bleeding Heartland. August 23, 2017. RetrievedAugust 24, 2017.
  45. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstPrice, Dave (August 23, 2017)."Current and Former Iowa Lawmakers Announce Support for Hubbell for Governor".WHO-DT. RetrievedAugust 24, 2017.
  46. ^abcVander Hart, Shane (December 6, 2016)."The 2018 Iowa Gubernatorial Race – Three Questions".Caffeinated Thoughts. RetrievedDecember 7, 2016.
  47. ^"Jochum Not Considering Run for Governor".KDTH. January 24, 2017. Archived fromthe original on February 2, 2017. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2017.
  48. ^Borg, Dean (May 13, 2016)."Representative Dave Loebsack".Iowa Public Television. RetrievedDecember 14, 2016.
  49. ^Dolmage, David (August 3, 2017)."Loebsack lays out plan for 2018".Newton Daily News. RetrievedAugust 3, 2017.
  50. ^Rynard, Pat (January 17, 2017)."Liz Mathis Passes On Gubernatorial Run".Iowa Starting Line. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2017.
  51. ^Robillard, Kevin (December 7, 2016)."GOP women rise to power in Iowa".Politico. RetrievedDecember 9, 2016.
  52. ^"If Todd Prichard runs for governor, his stump speech will sound like this".Bleeding Heartland. February 22, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 24, 2017.
  53. ^Dorman, Todd (June 16, 2016)."Corbett, Olson face decisions".The Gazette. RetrievedJuly 13, 2016.
  54. ^Dorman, Todd (January 31, 2017)."Mayoral possibilities list shrinks".The Gazette. RetrievedMarch 13, 2017.
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  56. ^Murphy, Erin (December 18, 2016)."2018 governor's race critical for Iowa Democrats".Quad-City Times. RetrievedDecember 19, 2016.
  57. ^Grove, Chantelle (May 19, 2017)."Democratic Senator, Boulton, Gaining Activist Support In Run For Governor".KCIM. RetrievedMay 22, 2017.
  58. ^Henderson, O. Kay (November 9, 2016)."Vilsack willing to guide party toward 'important business' of 2018".Radio Iowa. RetrievedNovember 12, 2016.
  59. ^Lynch, James Q. (September 5, 2017)."Martin O'Malley endorses Nate Boulton for Iowa governor".Cedar Rapids Gazette.
  60. ^abcdefghijkRynard, Pat (May 12, 2017)."Nate Boulton Nabs Early Endorsements From 10 Labor Unions".Iowa Starting Line. RetrievedMay 12, 2017.
  61. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrFrerichs, Jason."Iowa Activists for Cathy Glasson".Progressive Voices of Iowa. Archived fromthe original on December 3, 2017. RetrievedDecember 2, 2017.
  62. ^"Everything became official when I was sworn in at the last city council meeting".Facebook. RetrievedJanuary 19, 2018.
  63. ^"Johnson County Supervisor Carberry Endorses Cathy Glasson for Governor". Archived fromthe original on September 22, 2017. RetrievedSeptember 21, 2017.
  64. ^"New City Council Members Sworn In".106 1 Super Hits. Archived fromthe original on January 4, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 19, 2018.
  65. ^Rynard, Pat (December 8, 2017)."Nurses United Union Endorse Cathy Glasson, Pete D'Alessandro".Iowa Starting Line. RetrievedDecember 8, 2017.
  66. ^Boshart, Rob."CCI Action Fund endorses Glasson for Iowa governor". Quad-City Times. RetrievedSeptember 28, 2017.
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  68. ^"Twitter". RetrievedJanuary 2, 2018.
  69. ^Mulady, Cathy (January 25, 2018)."Peoples action endorses three more governor candidates/".People's Action. RetrievedJanuary 26, 2018.
  70. ^Lynch, James Q."National populist group endorses Cathy Glasson for Iowa governor".Quad-City Times. RetrievedSeptember 21, 2017.
  71. ^Jay Inslee.".@FredHubbell is a great candidate, ready to lead Iowa, and take it back for Democrats. Iowans are ready for change".Twitter.
  72. ^Lynch, James Q. (May 29, 2018)."Iowa AG Tom Miller endorses Hubbell for governor".The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. RetrievedMay 30, 2018.
  73. ^Cynthia Fodor (July 26, 2017)."Former Lt. Gov. to Chair Hubbell Campaign". KCCI-TV. RetrievedJuly 27, 2017.
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  78. ^Remington
  79. ^20-20 InsightArchived November 15, 2017, at theWayback Machine
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  82. ^Davis, Andy (March 7, 2016)."Libertarian Porter to announce run for governor".The Little Daily Report. RetrievedJuly 13, 2016.
  83. ^Vander Hart, Shane (March 7, 2016)."A Look Ahead at the 2018 Iowa Gubernatorial Race".Caffeinated Thoughts. RetrievedJuly 3, 2017.
  84. ^Noble, Jason (July 25, 2017)."Jake Porter to run for governor as Libertarian".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedAugust 4, 2017.
  85. ^"The Register endorsed Jake Porter in the Libertarian primary for governor".The Des Moines Register. May 23, 2018. RetrievedMay 24, 2018.
  86. ^"GaryForGov".GaryForGov. Archived fromthe original on December 15, 2018. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2018.
  87. ^"Clear Water Party of Iowa – Water Connects US All".Clearwater Party. Archived fromthe original on September 30, 2018. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2018.
  88. ^"Gary Siegwarth for IA Governor".Facebook. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2018.
  89. ^"Hollywood director enters Iowa gubernatorial race". April 20, 2017. RetrievedApril 20, 2017.
  90. ^Noble, Jason (May 8, 2017)."Filmmaker Brent Roske making independent run for Iowa governor".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedMay 12, 2017.
  91. ^Pfannenstiel, Brianne (December 26, 2017)."Brent Roske ends candidacy in Iowa governor's race".Des Moines Register. RetrievedJune 3, 2018.
  92. ^Gardner, Chris (April 25, 2017)."Richard Dreyfuss Endorses Candidate In Iowa Governor's Race".The Hollywood Reporter. RetrievedApril 25, 2017.
  93. ^Full debate
  94. ^Full debate
  95. ^"2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedApril 10, 2021.
  96. ^"The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings".The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
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  98. ^"2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedNovember 15, 2017.
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  100. ^"2018 Governor Races".RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  101. ^"2018 Governor Race Ratings".Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  102. ^"2018 Midterm Power Ranking".Fox News. April 15, 2023.
  103. ^"Politico Race Ratings".Politico.
  104. ^"2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups".www.governing.com. Archived fromthe original on October 21, 2018. RetrievedJuly 18, 2018.
  105. ^Change Research
  106. ^Gary Siegwarth (Clear Water) with 1%
  107. ^Selzer & Company
  108. ^Emerson College
  109. ^University of Iowa
  110. ^Selzer & Company
  111. ^Emerson College
  112. ^abcdeSelzer & Company
  113. ^20/20 Insights (D-Mowrer)
  114. ^"In Danger Of Losing, Iowa Governor Enlists Republican Heavy Hitters Ahead Of Midterms".NPR.org.
  115. ^"Iowa Governor Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis".www.politico.com.
  116. ^Russell, Joyce (November 7, 2018)."Gov. Reynolds Wins A Full Term In A Close Election".www.iowapublicradio.org.
  117. ^Ferris, Sarah (November 7, 2018)."Kim Reynolds is Iowa's first elected female governor".Politico.
  118. ^"General Election 2018 Canvass Summary"(PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. RetrievedMarch 6, 2023.
  119. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2d801234-32b3-4a96-a64c-82e27c460716

External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites

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