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2016 Washington gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2016 United States gubernatorial elections.

2016 Washington gubernatorial election
← 2012November 8, 20162020 →
 
CandidateJay InsleeBill Bryant
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote1,760,5201,476,346
Percentage54.25%45.49%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Inslee:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Bryant:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%     No data
Governor before election

Jay Inslee
Democratic

ElectedGovernor

Jay Inslee
Democratic

Elections in Washington (state)
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The2016 Washington gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016.

Under Washington'stop-two primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, residents voted for one of several candidates from a range of party affiliations. The top two finishers, incumbent GovernorJay Inslee (Democratic)[1] and Port of Seattle CommissionerBill Bryant (Republican), moved on to the November general election, which Inslee won.

Grays Harbor County voted for a Republican candidate for the first time since 1964, and Pacific County did so for the first time since 1924. As of 2025, this was the last gubernatorial election in Washington in which the margin of victory was within single digits.

Background

[edit]

Democratic governorChristine Gregoire declined to seek a third term in 2012. Democratic former U.S. RepresentativeJay Inslee was elected to succeed her, defeating RepublicanRob McKenna, the outgoingAttorney General of Washington, by 51.5% to 48.5%.

Primary election

[edit]

Democratic Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Republican Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Third Party and independent candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • David Blomstrom (Fifth Republic)[2]
  • Christian Joubert (Holistic)[2]
  • Mary Martin (Socialist Workers)[2]
  • Steve Rubenstein (Independent)

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling

with Inslee, Bryant, and Dorn

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Inslee (D)		Bill
Bryant (R)		Randy
Dorn (I)		Undecided
Elway Poll[9]April 14–17, 2016503± 3.5%41%26%7%25%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Inslee—40–50%
  Inslee—60–70%
  Bryant—40–50%
  Bryant—50–60%
  Bryant—60–70%
Blanket primary election results[10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJay Inslee (incumbent)687,41249.30
RepublicanBill Bryant534,51938.33
RepublicanBill Hirt48,3823.47
DemocraticPatrick O'Rourke40,5722.91
IndependentSteve Rubenstein22,5821.62
DemocraticJames Robert Deal14,6231.05
DemocraticJohnathan Dodds14,1521.01
RepublicanGoodspaceguy13,1910.95
Socialist WorkersMary Martin10,3740.74
IndependentDavid Blomstrom4,5120.32
IndependentChristian Joubert4,1030.29
Total votes1,394,422100.00

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[11]Safe DAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos[12]Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[13]Safe DNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[15]Lean DNovember 1, 2016
Governing[16]Likely DNovember 7, 2016

Endorsements

[edit]
Jay Inslee (D)

U.S Presidents

Newspapers

Bill Bryant (R)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Jay
Inslee (D)		Bill
Bryant (R)		Other/Undecided
[a]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[34]October 6 – November 2, 2016November 2, 201650.7%42.3%7.0%Inslee +8.4%
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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Inslee (D)		Bill
Bryant (R)		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[35]November 1–7, 20161,451± 4.6%55%42%3%
Insights WestNovember 4–6, 2016402± 4.9%49%40%10%
SurveyMonkey[36]October 31 – November 6, 20161,292± 4.6%55%42%3%
SurveyMonkey[37]October 28 – November 3, 2016944± 4.6%56%41%3%
SurveyUSA[38]October 31 – November 2, 2016667± 3.9%50%43%6%
SurveyMonkey[39]October 27 – November 2, 2016807± 4.6%56%41%3%
SurveyMonkey[40]October 26 – November 1, 2016698± 4.6%55%41%4%
SurveyMonkey[41]October 25–31, 2016745± 4.6%55%42%3%
Elway Poll[42]October 20–22, 2016502± 4.5%51%39%10%
KCTS 9/YouGov[43]October 6–13, 2016750± 4.4%51%45%4%
Strategies 360/KOMO News[44]September 29 – October 3, 2016500± 4.4%50%40%8%
Elway Poll[45]August 9–13, 2016500± 4.5%48%36%16%
Moore Information[46]May 16–18, 2016500± 4.0%43%36%18%
Elway Poll[9]April 14–17, 2016503± 3.5%48%36%16%
Elway Poll[47]December 28–30, 2015500± 4.5%39%30%31%
Public Policy Polling[48]May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%46%34%21%
Hypothetical polling

Jay Inslee vs. Andy Hill

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Inslee (D)		Andy
Hill (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[48]May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%45%31%24%

Jay Inslee vs. Rob McKenna

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Inslee (D)		Rob
McKenna (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[48]May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%43%38%19%

Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Inslee (D)		Dave
Reichert (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[48]May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%45%34%22%

Jay Inslee vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Inslee (D)		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Elway Poll[47]December 28–30, 2015500± 4.5%30%25%45%

Jay Inslee vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Inslee (D)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Moore Information[46]May 16–18, 2016500± 4.0%38%47%15%
Moore Information[46]May 2015500± 4.0%38%44%18%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		OtherUndecided
Moore Information[46]May 16–18, 2016500± 4.0%41%34%5%20%
Moore Information[46]May 2015500± 4.0%34%30%16%20%

Results

[edit]
2016 Washington gubernatorial election[49]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJay Inslee (incumbent)1,760,52054.25%+2.71%
RepublicanBill Bryant1,476,34645.49%−2.97%
Write-in8,4160.26%N/A
Total votes3,245,282100.00%N/A
Democratichold

By county

[edit]
County results
County[50][49]Jay Inslee

Democratic

Bill Bryant

Republican

Write-in

Various

MarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%
Adams1,53332.64%3,15167.10%120.26%-1,618-34.45%4,696
Asotin4,14942.46%5,60957.40%130.13%-1,460-14.94%9,771
Benton31,12837.95%50,73061.84%1720.21%-19,602-23.90%82,030
Chelan13,86640.94%19,93458.86%650.19%-6,068-17.92%33,865
Clallam19,35448.87%20,10850.78%1400.35%-754-1.90%39,602
Clark96,03247.93%103,78751.80%5600.28%-7,755-3.87%200,379
Columbia68831.50%1,49168.27%50.23%-803-36.77%2,184
Cowlitz19,59342.75%26,11656.98%1240.27%-6,523-14.23%45,833
Douglas5,44134.73%10,19765.09%280.18%-4,756-30.36%15,666
Ferry1,36037.56%2,25262.19%90.25%-892-24.63%3,621
Franklin9,73140.27%14,38759.54%450.19%-4,656-19.27%24,163
Garfield37029.65%87570.11%30.24%-505-40.46%1,248
Grant9,24232.16%19,40167.50%990.34%-10,159-35.35%28,742
Grays Harbor14,03848.43%14,84351.20%1070.37%-805-2.78%28,988
Island21,79750.16%21,56049.61%980.23%2370.55%43,455
Jefferson13,39965.24%7,04934.32%900.44%6,35030.92%20,538
King677,94367.69%321,24232.07%2,4090.24%356,70135.61%1,001,594
Kitsap66,39252.47%59,76247.23%3680.29%6,6305.24%126,522
Kittitas7,98441.66%11,13958.13%400.21%-3,155-16.46%19,163
Klickitat4,51741.82%6,26057.96%240.22%-1,743-16.14%10,801
Lewis11,16332.09%23,53967.66%860.25%-12,376-35.58%34,788
Lincoln1,61627.92%4,16071.89%110.19%-2,544-43.96%5,787
Mason13,12645.92%15,36553.75%930.33%-2,239-7.83%28,584
Okanogan7,43743.06%9,79456.71%390.23%-2,357-13.65%17,270
Pacific5,31349.29%5,42850.36%370.34%-115-1.07%10,778
Pend Oreille2,52036.50%4,36463.21%200.29%-1,844-26.71%6,904
Pierce176,82549.94%176,28749.79%9530.27%5380.15%354,065
San Juan7,50968.89%3,35630.79%350.32%4,15338.10%10,900
Skagit28,27349.47%28,70150.22%1730.30%-428-0.75%57,147
Skamania2,47644.35%3,09455.42%130.23%-618-11.07%5,583
Snohomish182,54452.12%166,77047.61%9370.27%15,7744.50%350,251
Spokane106,00945.87%124,57653.91%5080.22%-18,567-8.03%231,093
Stevens7,14831.02%15,85168.79%450.20%-8,703-37.77%23,044
Thurston71,83554.67%59,01444.91%5590.43%12,8219.76%131,408
Wahkiakum94139.89%1,41359.90%50.21%-472-20.01%2,359
Walla Walla10,70541.77%14,88058.06%440.17%-4,175-16.29%25,629
Whatcom62,63456.45%47,95343.22%3700.33%14,68113.23%110,957
Whitman8,72749.41%8,89250.35%430.24%-165-0.93%17,662
Yakima35,16244.96%43,01655.00%340.04%-7,854-10.04%78,212
Totals1,760,52054.25%1,476,34645.49%8,4160.26%284,1748.76%3,245,282

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5–5%
  •   Democratic — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Inslee won six of ten congressional districts.[49]

DistrictInsleeBryantRepresentative
1st51%49%Suzan DelBene
2nd57%43%Rick Larsen
3rd45%55%Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th40%60%Dan Newhouse
5th44%56%Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th54%46%Derek Kilmer
7th78%22%Jim McDermott
Pramila Jayapal
8th46%54%Dave Reichert
9th67%33%Adam Smith
10th53%47%Denny Heck

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Stockpiling for 2016? Gov. Inslee stages quiet 2014 fundraiser". Seattle Pi. October 26, 2014. RetrievedOctober 21, 2014.
  2. ^abcdefghCamden, Jim (May 23, 2016)."Final list of candidates in the August primary".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedMay 24, 2016.
  3. ^Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015)."Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor".The Seattle Times. RetrievedMay 14, 2015.
  4. ^abO'Sullivan, Joseph (September 11, 2015)."Hill, Litzow won't challenge Inslee in 2016".The Seattle Times. RetrievedSeptember 14, 2015.
  5. ^Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013)."Former AG McKenna joins lawfirm".Yakima Herald. RetrievedMarch 4, 2013.
  6. ^Cornfield, Jerry (June 6, 2013)."If not McKenna, others could challenge Inslee in 2016".HeraldNet. Archived fromthe original on July 14, 2014. RetrievedJuly 10, 2014.
  7. ^Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015)."Dave Reichert decides: He won't run against Jay Inslee for governor".The Seattle Times. RetrievedOctober 16, 2015.
  8. ^Douglas, C.R. (March 9, 2016)."State schools chief Randy Dorn close to a third-party run for governor".Q13 Fox. RetrievedMarch 12, 2016.
  9. ^abElway Poll
  10. ^Wyman, Kim (August 2, 2016)."Governor".Secretary of State of Washington.Archived from the original on September 17, 2025. RetrievedOctober 21, 2025.
  11. ^"2016 Governor Race ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.
  12. ^"Elections 2015-16".Daily Kos. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  13. ^"Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.
  14. ^"Our Final 2016 picks".Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived fromthe original on October 15, 2018. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.
  15. ^"2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedOctober 15, 2018.
  16. ^"2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived fromthe original on October 27, 2016. RetrievedOctober 28, 2016.
  17. ^"President Obama to Washington Democrats: Stay involved".The Spokesman-Review.
  18. ^"We endorse: Inslee 2.0 — Keep him as governor, but demand a stronger version".The News Tribune. October 20, 2016.
  19. ^"THE OLYMPIAN'S 2016 ENDORSEMENTS".The Olympian. November 5, 2016.
  20. ^Editorial Board, The Seattle Times (October 21, 2016)."The Times recommends: Despite flaws, Jay Inslee is the better choice for governor".The Seattle Times.Archived from the original on January 23, 2025. RetrievedOctober 22, 2025.
  21. ^"Endorsements for the November 2016 General Election".The Stranger. October 18, 2016.
  22. ^"Former WA senator Gorton endorses Bill Bryant for governor".King 5 News. September 18, 2015.
  23. ^"Former Congressman Sid Morrison Endorses Bill Bryant for Governor".Vote Smart. September 22, 2015.
  24. ^abcde"Newhouse endorses Bill Bryant for governor".Tri-City Herald. October 23, 2015.
  25. ^"Democrats and Republicans surprised by early governor's race".Covington Reporter. October 2, 2015.
  26. ^"Gov's race 2016: Rob McKenna's advice to Bill Bryant".King 5 News. August 16, 2016.
  27. ^"Senator Jan Angel Endorses Bryant Bid for Governor".Vote Smart. September 30, 2015.
  28. ^"Senator Curtis King Backs Bryant Bid for Governor".Vote Smart. September 25, 2015.
  29. ^"Rep. Matt Manweller Endorses Bill Bryant for Governor".Vote Smart. September 21, 2015.
  30. ^"Review of all S-R endorsements".The Spokesman-Review. October 26, 2016.
  31. ^"Our voice: We recommend Bill Bryant for governor".Tri-City Herald. October 23, 2016.
  32. ^"Review of U-B election endorsements".Walla Walla Union-Bulletin. October 23, 2016.
  33. ^"Endorsement: Bryant able to provide gubernatorial leadership".Yakima Herald-Republic. October 22, 2016.
  34. ^Real Clear Politics
  35. ^SurveyMonkey
  36. ^SurveyMonkey
  37. ^SurveyMonkey
  38. ^SurveyUSA
  39. ^SurveyMonkey
  40. ^SurveyMonkey
  41. ^SurveyMonkey
  42. ^Elway Poll
  43. ^KCTS 9/YouGov
  44. ^Strategies 360/KOMO News
  45. ^Elway Poll
  46. ^abcdeMoore Information
  47. ^abElway Poll
  48. ^abcdPublic Policy Polling
  49. ^abc"2016 General Data".sos.wa.gov.Archived from the original on March 15, 2025.
  50. ^Wyman, Kim (November 8, 2016)."Governor - County Results".Secretary of State of Washington.Archived from the original on May 2, 2025. RetrievedAugust 8, 2025.

External links

[edit]

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