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2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina

← 2012November 8, 20162020 →
Turnout68.98%Increase[1]
 
NomineeDonald TrumpHillary Clinton
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateNew YorkNew York
Running mateMike PenceTim Kaine
Electoral vote150
Popular vote2,362,6312,189,316
Percentage49.83%46.17%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Clinton

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie

  


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county.
Elections in North Carolina
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives

The2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, businessmanDonald Trump, and running mateIndiana GovernorMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, formerSecretary of StateHillary Clinton, and her running mate VirginiaSenatorTim Kaine. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won the state with 49.83% of the vote, a small decrease fromMitt Romney's vote percentage in2012. However, he won by a margin of 3.66%, an increase of 1.62% compared to Romney's margin in 2012. In contrast, Clinton obtained 46.17% of the vote, a decrease of over 2% in 2012 when Obama won 48.35% of the vote. Although both candidates saw decreases in vote share compared to 2012, Trump and Clinton both obtained more votes than the previous election's candidates due to a higher voter turnout in this election. Trump flipped seven counties to the Republican column and was the first Republican to winRobeson,Richmond, andGates counties sinceRichard Nixon in1972. Clinton flipped just one county to the Democratic column,Watauga County, home toBoone.

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Watauga County sinceJames A. Garfield in1880, as well as the first to do so without carryingBumcombe orForsyth counties sinceCalvin Coolidge in1924, the first to do so without carryingWake County sinceDwight D. Eisenhower in1956, and the first to do so without carryingPitt orWilson counties sinceRichard Nixon in1968. It was also the first time since1980 that North Carolina voted more Democratic thanOhio.

Primary elections

[edit]

TheDemocratic,Republican, andLibertarianprimaries were on March 15, 2016. In North Carolina, registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

[edit]
County results of the North Carolina Democratic presidential primary, 2016.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3][4]

Polling

[edit]

According to aWRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Hillary] Clinton holds a commanding lead of 57% to 34% among likely Democratic voters over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont."[5]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticHillary Clinton616,75854.59%
DemocraticBernie Sanders460,43440.75%
DemocraticNo Preference37,2003.29%
DemocraticOthers (total)15,3751.37%
Total votes1,129,767100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]
Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Ted Cruz
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[3][4][7]

Polling

[edit]

According to aWRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Donald] Trump tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 41% to 27% among likely GOP voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida andOhio Gov. John Kasich trail far behind, at 14% and 11%, respectively."[5]

Results

[edit]
North Carolina Republican primary, March 15, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump462,41340.23%29029
Ted Cruz422,62136.76%27027
John Kasich145,65912.67%909
Marco Rubio88,9077.73%606
Ben Carson(withdrawn)11,0190.96%101
No Preference6,0810.53%000
Jeb Bush(withdrawn)3,8930.34%000
Mike Huckabee(withdrawn)3,0710.27%000
Rand Paul(withdrawn)2,7530.24%000
Chris Christie(withdrawn)1,2560.11%000
Carly Fiorina(withdrawn)9290.08%000
Rick Santorum(withdrawn)6630.06%000
Jim Gilmore(withdrawn)2650.02%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:1,149,530100.00%72072
Source:The Green Papers

Trump managed to pull off a closer than expected win due to both Cruz and his campaigns performances in different metropolitan areas. Trump was strongest in theCharlotte,Fayetteville andWilmington areas. Cruz did best inGreensboro,Asheville and theResearch Triangle region, where North Carolina's major colleges and capital ofRaleigh are located.[8]

Libertarian primary

[edit]
2016 North Carolina Libertarian primary

March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)2020 →
 
CandidateGary JohnsonNo Preference
Home stateNew Mexicon/a
Popular vote2,4142,067
Percentage41.48%35.52%

 
CandidateJohn HaleJoy Waymire
Home stateKentuckyCalifornia
Popular vote329268
Percentage5.65%4.61%

North Carolina results by county
  Gary Johnson
  No Preference
  Tie

Eleven candidates appeared on the Libertarian presidential primary ballot:[3][4]

  • John David Hale
  • Cecil Ince
  • Gary Johnson
  • Steve Kerbel
  • Darryl W. Perry
  • Austin Petersen
  • Derrick Michael Reid
  • Jack Robinson Jr.
  • Rhett Smith
  • Joy Waymire
  • Marc Allan Feldman

Results

[edit]
North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016[9]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Gary Johnson2,41441.48%
No Preference2,06735.52%
John David Hale3295.65%
Joy Waymire2684.61%
Austin Petersen1893.25%
Darryl Perry1182.03%
Steve Kerbel1091.87%
Derrick Michael Reid741.27%
Cecil Ince721%
Jack Robinson Jr.701.20%
Marc Allan Feldman661.13%
Rhett Smith430.74%
Total5,739100%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
CNN[10]TossupNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[11]TossupNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[12]Lean D(flip)November 8, 2016
NBC[13]TossupNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[14]TossupNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[15]Tilt D(flip)November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16]Lean D(flip)November 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016 § North Carolina

Up until the summer of 2016, both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were each winning polls, with Trump leading slightly. From late June 2016 to mid September 2016, Clinton gained momentum and had won most polls conducted in the summer. From mid September 2016 to late October, Clinton's momentum increased as she won every poll but one. The latest polls showed a near tie, with both almost evenly matched. The average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton ahead 46% to 45%.[17] While she had a head-to-head lead in the last polls against Trump, polls with Gary Johnson showed the race a lot closer. The last New York Times poll conducted showed Trump and Clinton tied with 44% for each.[17]

Candidates

[edit]

In addition to Clinton, Johnson and Trump, Green Party nomineeJill Stein was granted write-in status by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the only write-in candidate to qualify.[18][19]

Results

[edit]
State senate district results:
Trump
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
Clinton
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina[20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDonald Trump2,362,63149.83%
DemocraticHillary Clinton2,189,31646.17%
LibertarianGary Johnson130,1262.74%
Write-in47,3861.00%
GreenJill Stein (write-in)12,1050.26%
Total votes4,741,564100.00%

By county

[edit]
CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Alamance38,81554.55%29,83341.93%2,5093.52%8,98212.62%71,157
Alexander13,89376.04%3,76720.62%6113.34%10,12655.42%18,271
Alleghany3,81471.76%1,30624.57%1953.67%2,50847.19%5,315
Anson4,50642.73%5,85955.56%1801.71%-1,353-12.83%10,545
Ashe9,41270.11%3,50026.07%5123.82%5,91244.04%13,424
Avery6,29876.35%1,68920.48%2623.17%4,60955.87%8,249
Beaufort14,54360.75%8,76436.61%6312.64%5,77924.14%23,938
Bertie3,45636.97%5,77861.82%1131.21%-2,322-24.85%9,347
Bladen8,55053.78%7,05844.40%2891.82%1,4929.38%15,897
Brunswick42,72062.50%23,28234.06%2,3493.44%19,43828.44%68,351
Buncombe55,71640.10%75,45254.30%7,7795.60%-19,736-14.20%138,947
Burke26,23867.42%11,25128.91%1,4313.67%14,98738.51%38,920
Cabarrus53,81957.69%35,52138.08%3,9494.23%18,29819.61%93,289
Caldwell26,62173.30%8,42523.20%1,2743.50%18,19650.10%36,320
Camden3,54670.83%1,27425.45%1863.72%2,27245.38%5,006
Carteret26,56970.32%9,93926.31%1,2733.37%16,63044.01%37,781
Caswell6,02654.44%4,79243.29%2522.27%1,23411.15%11,070
Catawba48,32466.79%21,21629.32%2,8113.89%27,10837.47%72,351
Chatham17,10542.92%21,06552.86%1,6794.22%-3,960-9.94%39,849
Cherokee10,84476.47%2,86020.17%4773.36%7,98456.30%14,181
Chowan4,01455.53%2,99241.39%2223.08%1,02214.14%7,228
Clay4,43773.83%1,36722.75%2063.42%3,07051.08%6,010
Cleveland28,47963.75%14,96433.50%1,2302.75%13,51530.25%44,673
Columbus14,27260.14%9,06338.19%3971.67%5,20921.95%23,732
Craven27,73159.00%17,63037.51%1,6403.49%10,10121.49%47,001
Cumberland51,26540.21%71,60556.16%4,6363.63%-20,340-15.95%127,506
Currituck9,16372.33%2,91322.99%5934.68%6,25049.34%12,669
Dare11,46058.44%7,22236.83%9274.73%4,23821.61%19,609
Davidson54,31772.56%18,10924.19%2,4303.25%36,20848.37%74,856
Davie15,60271.71%5,27024.22%8844.07%10,33247.49%21,756
Duplin12,21758.58%8,28339.72%3561.70%3,93418.86%20,856
Durham28,35018.16%121,25077.66%6,5344.18%-92,900-59.50%156,134
Edgecombe8,26133.20%16,22465.19%4011.61%-7,963-31.99%24,886
Forsyth75,97542.61%94,46452.98%7,8734.41%-18,489-10.37%178,312
Franklin16,36853.90%12,87442.39%1,1263.71%3,49411.51%30,368
Gaston61,79864.09%31,17732.33%3,4563.58%30,62131.76%96,431
Gates2,87453.30%2,38544.23%1332.47%4899.07%5,392
Graham3,28378.77%76818.43%1172.80%2,51560.34%4,168
Granville13,59149.69%12,90947.19%8533.12%6822.50%27,353
Greene4,37454.03%3,60544.53%1161.44%7699.50%8,095
Guilford98,06238.10%149,24857.98%10,0953.92%-51,186-19.88%257,405
Halifax9,03135.88%15,74862.57%3881.55%-6,717-26.69%25,167
Harnett27,61459.95%16,73736.33%1,7143.72%10,87723.62%46,065
Haywood18,92961.60%10,47334.08%1,3254.32%8,45627.52%30,727
Henderson35,80961.55%19,82734.08%2,5404.37%15,98227.47%58,176
Hertford3,09930.42%6,91067.84%1771.74%-3,811-37.42%10,186
Hoke7,76042.57%9,72653.35%7444.08%-1,966-10.78%18,230
Hyde1,28855.90%96541.88%512.22%32314.02%2,304
Iredell54,75466.31%24,73429.96%3,0793.73%30,02036.35%82,567
Jackson9,87052.74%7,71341.22%1,1306.04%2,15711.52%18,713
Johnston54,37263.29%28,36233.01%3,1753.70%26,01030.28%85,909
Jones2,97457.92%2,06540.21%961.87%90917.71%5,135
Lee13,71254.66%10,46941.74%9033.60%3,24312.92%25,084
Lenoir13,61350.78%12,63447.13%5602.09%9793.65%26,807
Lincoln28,80671.97%9,89724.73%1,3203.30%18,90947.24%40,023
Macon12,12768.38%4,87627.50%7314.12%7,25140.88%17,734
Madison6,78360.19%3,92634.84%5604.97%2,85725.35%11,269
Martin5,89749.29%5,84648.86%2211.85%510.43%11,964
McDowell14,56873.30%4,66723.48%6403.22%9,90149.82%19,875
Mecklenburg155,51832.89%294,56262.29%22,7774.82%-139,044-29.40%472,857
Mitchell6,28277.59%1,59619.71%2182.70%4,68657.88%8,096
Montgomery7,13061.79%4,15035.96%2602.25%2,98025.83%11,540
Moore30,49062.62%16,32933.54%1,8733.84%14,16129.08%48,692
Nash23,31948.92%23,23548.75%1,1112.33%840.17%47,665
New Hanover55,34449.46%50,97945.56%5,5824.98%4,3653.90%111,905
Northampton3,58236.37%6,14462.39%1221.24%-2,562-26.02%9,848
Onslow37,12264.97%17,51430.65%2,4994.38%19,60834.32%57,135
Orange18,55722.54%59,92372.78%3,8604.68%-41,366-50.24%82,340
Pamlico4,25861.98%2,44835.63%1642.39%1,81026.35%6,870
Pasquotank8,18047.04%8,61549.54%5963.42%-435-2.50%17,391
Pender17,63963.26%9,35433.54%8923.20%8,28529.72%27,885
Perquimans4,17762.27%2,31934.57%2123.16%1,85827.70%6,708
Person11,18557.02%7,83339.93%5973.05%3,35217.09%19,615
Pitt35,69144.32%41,82451.94%3,0123.74%-6,133-7.62%80,527
Polk6,76861.90%3,73534.16%4313.94%3,03327.74%10,934
Randolph49,43076.55%13,19420.43%1,9513.02%36,23656.12%64,575
Richmond10,38353.72%8,50143.98%4442.30%1,8829.74%19,328
Robeson20,76250.82%19,01646.54%1,0802.64%1,7464.28%40,858
Rockingham26,83063.46%14,22833.65%1,2202.89%12,60229.81%42,278
Rowan42,81066.51%19,40030.14%2,1593.35%23,41036.37%64,369
Rutherford21,87172.16%7,51224.79%9243.05%14,35947.37%30,307
Sampson14,83857.23%10,54740.68%5432.09%4,29116.55%25,928
Scotland6,25644.92%7,31952.55%3532.53%-1,063-7.63%13,928
Stanly21,96473.42%7,09423.71%8592.87%14,87049.71%29,917
Stokes17,11675.90%4,66520.69%7693.41%12,45155.21%22,550
Surry23,67173.52%7,48823.26%1,0373.22%16,18350.26%32,196
Swain3,56558.21%2,19635.86%3635.93%1,36922.35%6,124
Transylvania10,52058.87%6,55836.70%7914.43%3,96222.17%17,869
Tyrrell97556.07%72041.40%442.53%25514.67%1,739
Union66,70763.10%34,33732.48%4,6664.42%32,37030.62%105,710
Vance7,33236.70%12,22961.22%4162.08%-4,897-24.52%19,977
Wake196,08237.16%302,73657.38%28,8065.46%-106,654-20.22%527,624
Warren3,21432.66%6,41365.16%2152.18%-3,199-32.50%9,842
Washington2,56441.59%3,51056.93%911.48%-946-15.34%6,165
Watauga13,69745.68%14,13847.15%2,1507.17%-441-1.47%29,985
Wayne27,54054.33%21,77042.95%1,3792.72%5,77011.38%50,689
Wilkes23,75275.89%6,63821.21%9062.90%17,11454.68%31,296
Wilson17,53145.97%19,66351.56%9412.47%-2,132-5.59%38,135
Yadkin13,88078.76%3,16017.93%5843.31%10,72060.83%17,624
Yancey6,38564.11%3,19632.09%3793.80%3,18932.02%9,960
Totals2,362,63149.83%2,189,31646.17%189,6174.00%173,3153.66%4,741,564
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10–12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5–10%
  •   Democratic — +5–7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5–5%
  •   Democratic — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5–5%
  •   Republican — +5–7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5–10%
  •   Republican — +10–12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5–15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10–12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5–10%
  •   Democratic — +5–7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5–5%
  •   Democratic — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5–5%
  •   Republican — +5–7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5–10%
  •   Republican — +10–12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5–15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won ten of North Carolina's 13 congressional districts.[21]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
1st30%68%G. K. Butterfield
2nd53%44%Renee Ellmers
George Holding
3rd61%37%Walter B. Jones
4th28%68%David Price
5th57%40%Virginia Foxx
6th56%41%Mark Walker
7th58%40%David Rouzer
8th56%41%Richard Hudson
9th54%43%Robert Pittenger
10th61%36%Patrick McHenry
11th63%34%Mark Meadows
12th28%68%Alma Adams
13th53%44%Ted Budd

Analysis

[edit]
A map of the most college-educated counties in the United States

North Carolina shifted slightly rightward from 2012 in this election, with Clinton's gains with white college-educated voters largely but not entirely cancelling out Trump's gains among white voters without college degrees. By contrast, the fellow Southern states of Georgia and Virginia outright shifted leftward. Trump's gains outside of theResearch Triangle andMecklenburg County, particularly inWestern North Carolina, were enough to win the state.[22]

Prior to the 2016 election, North Carolina had been a Republican stronghold since1968 with the state voting Democratic onlyonce between then and 2008. In2008, North Carolina voted Democratic for only the second time in 40 years. Although the state returned to the Republican column in 2012, when the party's nominee, Mitt Romney, carried the state, it did so only narrowly, cementing its new status as a battleground state. Throughout the 2016 campaign, North Carolina was considered by most a tossup state, with the outcome going into election night heavily debated. The Trump campaign saw winning North Carolina as crucial in order for Trump to win the Electoral College; conversely, the Clinton campaign felt that it was vital for them to win the state to block Trump's path to an Electoral College win. Both Trump and Clinton campaigned in the state shortly before the general election.[23][24]

Despite winning the state, Trump, in some ways, under-performed in comparison to Romney in 2012. Romney won a majority of the vote in 2012 with 50.4% while Trump only managed a plurality of 49.8%. Similarly, Clinton also under-performed in comparison to Obama, with Clinton winning only 46.2% in comparison to Obama's 48.35%. This situation was the result of the spike in votes for third party candidates in the state as 4% of North Carolinians voted for a candidate other than the Democratic and Republican nominees in 2016 as opposed to just 1.26% in 2012.

An increase in turnout in North Carolina allowed both Trump and Clinton to out-perform Romney and Obama in terms of the total votes each candidate received. In 2016 Trump won around 92,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 while Clinton won around 10,000 more than Obama. Furthermore, Trump also outperformed Romney by winning North Carolina by a greater margin than Romney was able to as Trump won the state over Clinton by 3.7% compared to the 2% margin Romney won over Obama.

Trump never lost the state in any of this three runs (winning it by 1.34% in 2020), highlighting the state's slightly red lean in presidential elections. Obama won the state by just 0.32% in 2008, even as he won nationwide by 7.2%.

As of 2024, this is the last time the Democratic candidate wonScotland County, part of a trio of formerly solidly Democratic rural counties in southern North Carolina (adjacent Robeson and Richmond counties would flip in this election). It is also the most recent election whereNew Hanover County voted Republican.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Voter Turnout".North Carolina State Board of Elections.
  2. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. RetrievedDecember 18, 2020.
  3. ^abcBinker, Mark (January 5, 2016)."NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots".WRAL.com. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  4. ^abc[1][dead link]
  5. ^abBurns, Matthew (March 8, 2016)."WRAL News poll: Trump, Clinton poised to win NC".WRAL.com. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  6. ^"NC SBE Election Contest Details".Er.ncsbe.gov. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  7. ^"NC SBE Election Contest Details".Er.ncsbe.gov. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  8. ^"Live results from the North Carolina primary".graphics.latimes.com. March 15, 2016. RetrievedApril 26, 2016.
  9. ^"NC SBE Contest Results".North Carolina State Board of Elections.Government of North Carolina. March 16, 2015. RetrievedMarch 16, 2016.
  10. ^Chalian, David (November 4, 2016)."Road to 270: CNN's new election map".CNN. RetrievedApril 17, 2019.
  11. ^"2016 Electoral Scorecard".The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived fromthe original on February 7, 2019. RetrievedApril 17, 2019.
  12. ^"2016 Predicted Electoral Map".Electoral-vote.com. RetrievedApril 17, 2019.
  13. ^Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016)."NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton".NBC News. RetrievedApril 17, 2019.
  14. ^"2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House".RealClearPolitics. RetrievedApril 17, 2019.
  15. ^"Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedAugust 16, 2021.
  16. ^Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016)."The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings".University of Virginia Center for Politics. RetrievedApril 17, 2019.
  17. ^ab"RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton".
  18. ^"NC write-in votes won't count unless they're for Jill Stein".newsobserver.com.
  19. ^"Your Write-In Vote Might Not Be Counted In NC".wfmynews2.com.
  20. ^"11/08/2016 OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE".North Carolina State Board of Elections. RetrievedDecember 5, 2023.
  21. ^"North Carolina 2016 pres-by-CD.xlsx".Google Docs. RetrievedAugust 29, 2025.
  22. ^Silver, Nate (November 22, 2016)."Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump".FiveThirtyEight.
  23. ^Bradner, Eric (November 3, 2016)."Why North Carolina is so important in 2016".CNN. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  24. ^Catanese, David (November 4, 2016)."Clinton's North Carolina Firewall".U.S. News & World Report. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.

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