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2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska

← 2012November 8, 20162020 →
Turnout63.80%Increase[1]
 
NomineeDonald TrumpHillary Clinton
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateNew YorkNew York
Running mateMike PenceTim Kaine
Electoral vote50
Popular vote495,961284,494
Percentage58.75%33.70%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Clinton

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Nebraska
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
Mayoral elections
Mayoral elections
Government
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, businessmanDonald Trump, and running mateIndiana GovernorMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, formerSecretary of StateHillary Clinton, and her running mate VirginiaSenatorTim Kaine. Nebraska has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, two from the state at large, and one each from thethree congressional districts.[2]

Trump carried the state with 58.7% of the vote, while Clinton received 33.7%.[3] This is also the most recent presidential election when Nebraska's 2nd congressional district would vote Republican, and thus, Nebraska's 2nd district was the only electoral vote that voted for Trump in 2016 that did not vote for him in 2024.

Caucuses and primaries

[edit]

Democratic caucus

[edit]
Main article:2016 Nebraska Democratic presidential caucuses and primary

The 2016 Nebraska Democratic caucuses was held on March 15, 2016, as part of a series ofprimary elections to decide the 2016 Democratic nominee for president. SenatorBernie Sanders won a commanding victory in Nebraska, winning rural areas along with big cities such asOmaha andLincoln. This was the last Democratic primary in Nebraska held via thecaucus method, the state party switched to a standard popular vote to decide the allocation of delegates in future elections including2020. In 2016, the Nebraska caucuses occurred on the same dates asKansas andLouisiana, the former being won handily by Sanders, while the latter was won in a landslide by the eventual nomineeHillary Clinton.

Results of the Democratic caucuses by county
  Bernie Sanders
  Hillary Clinton

Democratic presidential caucuses

Nebraska Democratic caucuses, March 5, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Bernie Sanders19,12057.14%15116
Hillary Clinton14,34042.86%10313
Uncommitted011
Total33,460100%25530
Source:[4]


Democratic presidential primary (non-binding)
The Nebraska Democratic primary was held on May 10, 2016. The primary does not bind delegates. Delegates were bound by the caucuses on March 5, 2016.

Nebraska Democratic primary, May 10, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton42,69253.08%
Bernie Sanders37,74446.92%
Total80,436100%
Source:[5]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2016 Nebraska Republican presidential primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6][7]

Nebraska Republican primary, May 10, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump122,32761.47%36036
Ted Cruz(withdrawn)36,70318.44%000
John Kasich(withdrawn)22,70911.41%000
Ben Carson(withdrawn)10,0165.03%000
Marco Rubio(withdrawn)7,2333.63%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:198,988100.00%36036
Source:The Green Papers

Libertarian primary

[edit]
2016 Nebraska Libertarian presidential primary

May 10, 2016 (2016-05-10)2020 →
 
CandidateGary JohnsonAustin Petersen
Home stateNew MexicoMissouri
Popular vote375135
Percentage52.08%18.75%

 
CandidateJohn McAfeeMarc Allan Feldman
Home stateTennesseeOhio
Popular vote12447
Percentage17.22%6.53%

Nebraska results by county
  Gary Johnson
  Austin Petersen
  John McAfee
  Marc Allen Feldman
  Tie
  No votes

(Note:Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)

The Nebraska primary was held on May 10, 2016. Independents and registered Libertarians were allowed to vote in the state's Libertarian primary. The Nebraska Primary marked the third large victory forGary Johnson in the handful of states that conduct Libertarian presidential primaries. However, since the Libertarian Party does not use such primaries for selecting delegates to its national nominating convention, the results were effectively non-binding.

2016 Nebraska Libertarian primary[8]
CandidatePopular vote
CountPercentage
Gary Johnson37552.08%
Austin Petersen13518.75%
John McAfee12417.22%
Marc Allan Feldman476.53%
Steve Kerbel354.86%
Total:720100%

General election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]

Nebraska's 1st Congressional District

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Donald
Trump (R)
Gary
Johnson (L)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[9]September 25–27, 201623329%53%

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Donald
Trump (R)
Gary
Johnson (L)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[9]September 25–27, 201623340%49%
The Singularis Group, LLC[10]May 11–12, 20161,007± 3.08%36%44%20%

Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Donald
Trump (R)
Gary
Johnson (L)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[9]September 25–27, 201623420%65%

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times[11]Safe RNovember 6, 2016
CNN[12]Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[13]Likely RNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]Safe RNovember 7, 2016
NBC[15]Likely RNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[16]Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Fox News[17]Safe RNovember 7, 2016
ABC[18]Safe RNovember 7, 2016
SourceRanking (1st)Ranking (2nd)Ranking (3rd)As of
CNN[19]Safe RTossupSafe RNovember 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20]Safe RLean RSafe RNovember 7, 2016
NBC[21]Safe RTossupSafe RNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[22]Safe RLikely RSafe RNovember 8, 2016

Results

[edit]
2016 United States presidential election in Nebraska[23]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanDonald TrumpMike Pence495,96158.75%5
DemocraticHillary ClintonTim Kaine284,49433.70%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonWilliam Weld38,9464.61%0
Write-Ins16,0511.90%0
GreenJill SteinAjamu Baraka8,7751.04%0
Totals844,227100.00%5

By county

[edit]
County[23]Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams9,28768.73%3,30224.44%9246.83%5,98544.29%13,513
Antelope2,73283.27%38311.67%1665.06%2,34971.60%3,281
Arthur24489.38%176.23%124.39%22783.15%273
Banner35788.81%194.73%266.46%33884.08%402
Blaine27687.07%309.46%113.47%24677.61%317
Boone2,29979.14%41414.25%1926.61%1,88564.89%2,905
Box Butte3,61773.46%96519.60%3426.94%2,65253.86%4,924
Boyd98385.03%12811.07%453.90%85573.96%1,156
Brown1,38586.73%1539.58%593.69%1,23277.15%1,597
Buffalo14,56968.95%4,76322.54%1,7978.51%9,80646.41%21,129
Burt2,36766.53%93026.14%2617.33%1,43740.39%3,558
Butler3,07977.34%69117.36%2115.30%2,38859.98%3,981
Cass8,45265.35%3,48426.94%9977.71%4,96838.41%12,933
Cedar3,53279.91%57112.92%3177.17%2,96166.99%4,420
Chase1,64886.83%1719.01%794.16%1,47777.82%1,898
Cherry2,62384.12%31710.17%1785.71%2,30673.95%3,118
Cheyenne3,66577.80%71115.09%3357.11%2,95462.71%4,711
Clay2,42279.02%47715.56%1665.42%1,94563.46%3,065
Colfax2,17167.55%85926.73%1845.72%1,31240.82%3,214
Cuming3,12276.63%71917.65%2335.72%2,40358.98%4,074
Custer4,69583.07%64111.34%3165.59%4,05471.73%5,652
Dakota3,61657.59%2,31436.85%3495.56%1,30220.74%6,279
Dawes2,63271.60%80121.79%2436.61%1,83149.81%3,676
Dawson5,98469.30%2,13624.74%5155.96%3,84844.56%8,635
Deuel80982.22%12012.20%555.58%68970.02%984
Dixon2,04173.36%55619.99%1856.65%1,48553.37%2,782
Dodge9,93363.96%4,54429.26%1,0526.78%5,38934.70%15,529
Douglas108,07744.95%113,79847.33%18,5587.72%-5,721-2.38%240,433
Dundy82386.36%899.34%414.30%73477.02%953
Fillmore2,13072.42%61320.84%1986.74%1,51751.58%2,941
Franklin1,34780.51%25014.94%764.55%1,09765.57%1,673
Frontier1,11083.58%16112.12%574.30%94971.46%1,328
Furnas1,92182.09%30412.99%1154.92%1,61769.10%2,340
Gage6,38063.50%2,93529.21%7337.29%3,44534.29%10,048
Garden86980.84%15314.23%534.93%71666.61%1,075
Garfield82183.78%12112.35%383.87%70071.43%980
Gosper79478.61%16616.44%504.95%62862.17%1,010
Grant36790.62%204.94%184.44%34785.68%405
Greeley91277.62%21017.87%534.51%70259.75%1,175
Hall14,40865.31%6,28228.48%1,3706.21%8,12636.83%22,060
Hamilton3,78375.60%87817.55%3436.85%2,90558.05%5,004
Harlan1,49681.66%25413.86%824.48%1,24267.80%1,832
Hayes47291.83%305.84%122.33%44285.99%514
Hitchcock1,23283.92%16110.97%755.11%1,07172.95%1,468
Holt4,35485.07%53110.38%2334.55%3,82374.69%5,118
Hooker35585.13%409.59%225.28%31575.54%417
Howard2,28476.29%54418.17%1665.54%1,74058.12%2,994
Jefferson2,39968.66%83723.96%2587.38%1,56244.70%3,494
Johnson1,35564.86%56326.95%1718.19%79237.91%2,089
Kearney2,53176.79%55016.69%2156.52%1,98160.10%3,296
Keith3,23580.19%57114.15%2285.66%2,66466.04%4,034
Keya Paha46088.63%407.71%193.66%42080.92%519
Kimball1,33079.31%23013.71%1176.98%1,10065.60%1,677
Knox3,18877.47%72017.50%2075.03%2,46859.97%4,115
Lancaster61,58845.21%61,89845.44%12,7379.35%-310-0.23%136,223
Lincoln12,16475.41%2,91318.06%1,0546.53%9,25157.35%16,131
Logan40088.30%327.06%214.64%36881.24%453
Loup32383.90%4812.47%143.63%27571.43%385
Madison10,62874.10%2,71118.90%1,0047.00%7,91755.20%14,343
McPherson25789.55%144.88%165.57%24384.67%287
Merrick2,92677.24%60215.89%2606.87%2,32461.35%3,788
Morrill1,80281.58%28412.86%1235.56%1,51868.72%2,209
Nance1,26177.79%28117.33%794.88%98060.46%1,621
Nemaha2,11666.94%78524.83%2608.23%1,33142.11%3,161
Nuckolls1,72678.28%35316.01%1265.71%1,37362.27%2,205
Otoe4,86065.17%2,02527.16%5727.67%2,83538.01%7,457
Pawnee97473.40%27921.02%745.58%69552.38%1,327
Perkins1,21783.64%16111.07%775.29%1,05672.57%1,455
Phelps3,84981.98%57212.18%2745.84%3,27769.80%4,695
Pierce3,05284.08%38210.52%1965.40%2,67073.56%3,630
Platte10,96575.97%2,64618.33%8225.70%8,31957.64%14,433
Polk2,02878.54%41316.00%1415.46%1,61562.54%2,582
Red Willow4,25882.28%64512.46%2725.26%3,61369.82%5,175
Richardson2,76972.77%81821.50%2185.73%1,95151.27%3,805
Rock68786.09%708.77%415.14%61777.32%798
Saline3,00458.49%1,73333.74%3997.77%1,27124.75%5,136
Sarpy45,14356.02%28,03334.79%7,4049.19%17,11021.23%80,580
Saunders7,55569.57%2,52323.23%7827.20%5,03246.34%10,860
Scotts Bluff10,07670.38%3,20722.40%1,0347.22%6,86947.98%14,317
Seward5,45468.85%1,87523.67%5937.48%3,57945.18%7,922
Sheridan2,21184.78%28711.00%1104.22%1,92473.78%2,608
Sherman1,15073.11%34021.61%835.28%81051.50%1,573
Sioux61683.70%8111.01%395.29%53572.69%736
Stanton2,18778.08%41714.89%1977.03%1,77063.19%2,801
Thayer2,05176.25%49918.55%1405.20%1,55257.70%2,690
Thomas34487.53%307.63%194.84%31479.90%393
Thurston1,04349.95%91944.01%1266.04%1245.94%2,088
Valley1,78080.73%33915.37%863.90%1,44165.36%2,205
Washington7,42468.54%2,62324.22%7857.24%4,80144.32%10,832
Wayne2,69371.32%83522.11%2486.57%1,85849.21%3,776
Webster1,33077.87%30617.92%724.21%1,02459.95%1,708
Wheeler37781.08%6213.33%265.59%31567.75%465
York4,70073.66%1,18618.59%4957.75%3,51455.07%6,381
Totals495,96158.75%284,49433.70%63,7777.55%211,46725.05%844,232
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won all of the state's three congressional districts, winning all of the state's electoral votes.[23]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
1st56%35%Jeff Fortenberry
2nd47%45%Brad Ashford
Don Bacon
3rd74%20%Adrian Smith

Analysis

[edit]
A map of the most college-educated counties in the United States

Although Trump won Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district in 2016, the district shifted significantly leftward, and Clinton lost it by just 2%. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carryingDouglas orLancaster County sinceWilliam Howard Taft in1908.

This was because Douglas and Lancaster counties, which are in the district, are two of the most highly-educated counties in Nebraska. Trump underperformed among white voters with college degrees in 2016. In 2020 and 2024 Democrats won a majority of white voters with college degrees, and were thus able to win the district in those elections.[24]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Voter turnout in United States elections".
  2. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. RetrievedDecember 14, 2020.
  3. ^"Nebraska Election Results 2016".The New York Times. August 9, 2017.
  4. ^The Green Papers
  5. ^Nebraska Secretary of State Election - Official Primary Results
  6. ^WRAL: NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots
  7. ^NC State Board of Elections presidential primary candidates' list (preliminary)[dead link]
  8. ^"Unofficial Results: Primary Election - May 10, 2016".Nebraska Secretary of State. May 10, 2016. RetrievedJuly 22, 2016.
  9. ^abc"Emerson Poll: Washington State Looks Safe for Democrats in the Presidential and Senate Races; Trump Has a Wide Lead in Nebraska"(PDF).Emerson College. RetrievedSeptember 28, 2016.
  10. ^"BACON LEADS ASHFORD IN LATEST POLL".The Singularis Group, LLC. Don Bacon for Congress. May 16, 2016. Archived fromthe original on September 10, 2016. RetrievedAugust 14, 2016.
  11. ^"Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours".Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  12. ^"Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com".Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  13. ^"Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedAugust 16, 2021.
  14. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President".Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  15. ^Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016)."NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead".NBC News. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  16. ^"2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  17. ^"Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge".Fox News. November 7, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  18. ^"The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election".Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  19. ^"Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com".Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  20. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President".Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  21. ^Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016)."NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead".NBC News. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  22. ^"2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  23. ^abc"Revised Official Report of the Board of State Canvassers"(PDF).Nebraska Secretary of State. pp. 10–11. RetrievedMarch 14, 2025.
  24. ^Silver, Nate (November 22, 2016)."Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump".FiveThirtyEight.

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