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2016 United States presidential election in Mississippi

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Mississippi

← 2012
November 8, 2016
2020 →
 
NomineeDonald TrumpHillary Clinton
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateNew YorkNew York
Running mateMike PenceTim Kaine
Electoral vote60
Popular vote700,714485,131
Percentage57.94%40.11%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Clinton

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Vote

  


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Mississippi
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The2016 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican nominee, businessmanDonald Trump, and running mateIndiana GovernorMike Pence againstDemocratic nominee, formerSecretary of StateHillary Clinton, and her running mate VirginiaSenatorTim Kaine. Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Mississippi has not voted Democratic since1976. Since that time, Republicans have dominated the state's political elections, and so Trump was widely expected to win the state. Indeed, Trump carried it with 57.94% of the vote, while Clinton received 40.11%.[2] Trump's 17.83% margin of victory was a 6.33% increase over the 11.50% margin of victory by which Republican nomineeMitt Romney won the state overBarack Obama in2012. This also marked the first time since1988 thatMadison County voted more Democratic than the state as a whole. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carryingOktibbeha County sinceRichard Nixon in1968, as well as the first to do so without carryingCopiah,Pike, orYazoo Counties sinceRonald Reagan in1980.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2016 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary
2016 Mississippi primary

← 2012
March 8, 2016 (2016-03-08)
2020 →
 
CandidateHillary ClintonBernie Sanders
Home stateNew YorkVermont
Delegate count315
Popular vote187,33437,748
Percentage82.47%16.62%

Democratic primary results by county
  Hillary Clinton

Fueled by robust support from black voters, Clinton overwhelmed Mr. Sanders in Southern states. The Vermont senator barely competed in Mississippi and was still struggling to broaden his appeal beyond white, liberal voters[3]

This sectionshould include a summary of, or be summarized in, another article. SeeWikipedia:Summary style for information on how to incorporate it into this article's main text, or the main text of another article.(September 2023)
Mississippi Democratic primary, March 8, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton187,33482.47%31334
Bernie Sanders37,74816.62%527
Willie Wilson9190.40%
Martin O'Malley(withdrawn)6720.30%
Rocky De La Fuente4810.21%
Write-in100.00%
Total227,164100%36541
Source:[4][5]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2016 Mississippi Republican presidential primary
Republican primary results by county.
  Trump
  Cruz

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]

Mississippi Republican primary, March 8, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump196,65947.24%25025
Ted Cruz150,36436.12%15015
John Kasich36,7958.84%000
Marco Rubio21,8855.26%000
Ben Carson(withdrawn)5,6261.35%000
Jeb Bush(withdrawn)1,6970.41%000
Mike Huckabee(withdrawn)1,0670.26%000
Rand Paul(withdrawn)6430.15%000
Rick Santorum(withdrawn)5100.12%000
Chris Christie(withdrawn)4930.12%000
Carly Fiorina(withdrawn)2240.05%000
Lindsey Graham(withdrawn)1720.04%000
George Pataki(withdrawn)1350.03%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:416,270100.00%40040
Source:The Green Papers

General election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016 § Mississippi

Predictions

[edit]

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Mississippi as of Election Day.

SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times[7]Safe RNovember 6, 2016
CNN[8]Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[9]Safe RNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]Safe RNovember 7, 2016
NBC[11]Likely RNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[12]Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Fox News[13]Safe RNovember 7, 2016
ABC[14]Safe RNovember 7, 2016

Results

[edit]
2016 United States presidential election in Mississippi[2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDonald Trump700,71457.94%
DemocraticHillary Clinton485,13140.11%
LibertarianGary Johnson14,4351.19%
ConstitutionDarrell L. Castle3,9870.33%
GreenJill Stein3,7310.31%
ProhibitionJames Hedges7150.06%
American DeltaRocky De La Fuente6440.05%
Total votes1,209,357100.00%

By county

[edit]
County[2]Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams5,87442.45%7,75756.06%2051.48%-1,883-13.61%13,836
Alcorn11,81979.95%2,68418.16%2801.89%9,13561.79%14,783
Amite4,28960.84%2,69738.26%640.91%1,59222.58%7,050
Attala4,89759.31%3,24239.27%1171.42%1,65520.05%8,256
Benton2,25156.09%1,71942.84%431.07%53213.26%4,013
Bolivar4,59033.20%9,04665.44%1881.36%-4,456-32.23%13,824
Calhoun4,39068.64%1,91029.86%961.50%2,48038.77%6,396
Carroll3,79968.72%1,68030.39%490.89%2,11938.33%5,528
Chickasaw4,12752.31%3,64946.25%1141.44%4786.06%7,890
Choctaw2,78868.59%1,21829.96%591.45%1,57038.62%4,065
Claiborne54012.64%3,70886.80%240.56%-3,168-74.16%4,272
Clarke5,13765.94%2,58533.18%690.89%2,55232.76%7,791
Clay4,15041.49%5,72257.20%1311.31%-1,572-15.72%10,003
Coahoma2,42627.22%6,37871.57%1081.21%-3,952-44.34%8,912
Copiah6,10347.01%6,74151.93%1381.06%-638-4.91%12,982
Covington5,43561.68%3,27637.18%1001.13%2,15924.50%8,811
DeSoto43,08965.59%20,59131.34%2,0153.07%22,49834.25%65,695
Forrest15,46155.09%11,71641.75%8873.16%3,74513.34%28,064
Franklin2,72163.43%1,50235.01%671.56%1,21928.41%4,290
George8,69687.92%1,02710.38%1681.70%7,66977.54%9,891
Greene4,33580.74%97418.14%601.12%3,36162.60%5,369
Grenada5,97056.79%4,42442.08%1191.13%1,54614.71%10,513
Hancock13,81178.31%3,34418.96%4822.73%10,46759.35%17,637
Harrison40,35463.74%21,16933.44%1,7902.83%19,18530.30%63,313
Hinds25,27526.69%67,59471.39%1,8121.91%-42,319-44.70%94,681
Holmes1,30916.21%6,68982.83%780.97%-5,380-66.62%8,076
Humphreys1,15127.06%3,07172.21%310.73%-1,920-45.14%4,253
Issaquena29842.63%39556.51%60.86%-97-13.88%699
Itawamba8,47086.99%1,11711.47%1501.54%7,35375.52%9,737
Jackson33,62967.85%14,65729.57%1,2812.58%18,97238.28%49,567
Jasper4,03847.65%4,36851.54%690.81%-330-3.89%8,475
Jefferson49012.69%3,33786.45%330.85%-2,847-73.76%3,860
Jefferson Davis2,46639.54%3,72059.64%510.82%-1,254-20.11%6,237
Jones20,13371.01%7,79127.48%4281.51%12,34243.53%28,352
Kemper1,77838.33%2,82760.94%340.73%-1,049-22.61%4,639
Lafayette10,87255.35%7,96940.57%8024.08%2,90314.78%19,643
Lamar18,75176.25%5,19021.10%6512.65%13,56155.14%24,592
Lauderdale17,74160.13%11,26938.19%4961.68%6,47221.93%29,506
Lawrence4,09164.28%2,19534.49%781.23%1,89629.79%6,364
Leake4,78256.60%3,58442.42%830.98%1,19814.18%8,449
Lee22,22067.51%10,02930.47%6642.02%12,19137.04%32,913
Leflore3,21228.83%7,78769.90%1411.27%-4,575-41.07%11,140
Lincoln10,55069.44%4,45829.34%1851.22%6,09240.10%15,193
Lowndes13,27151.89%11,81946.21%4851.90%1,4525.68%25,575
Madison28,26556.75%20,34340.85%1,1942.40%7,92215.91%49,802
Marion7,83667.01%3,67731.45%1801.54%4,15935.57%11,693
Marshall6,58744.39%8,02354.07%2291.54%-1,436-9.68%14,839
Monroe10,16764.01%5,52434.78%1931.22%4,64329.23%15,884
Montgomery2,81856.41%2,11542.33%631.26%70314.07%4,996
Neshoba7,67972.77%2,71525.73%1591.51%4,96447.04%10,553
Newton6,54869.38%2,75629.20%1341.42%3,79240.18%9,438
Noxubee1,20021.53%4,34777.99%270.48%-3,147-56.46%5,574
Oktibbeha8,57647.32%8,85948.88%6893.80%-283-1.56%18,124
Panola7,44949.45%7,43149.33%1841.22%180.12%15,064
Pearl River17,78281.26%3,60416.47%4972.27%14,17864.79%21,883
Perry4,13576.12%1,22022.46%771.42%2,91553.66%5,432
Pike8,00949.10%8,04349.31%2581.58%-34-0.21%16,310
Pontotoc10,33679.61%2,38618.38%2622.02%7,95061.23%12,984
Prentiss7,64877.47%2,06720.94%1571.59%5,58156.53%9,872
Quitman1,00129.75%2,31268.71%521.55%-1,311-38.96%3,365
Rankin47,17875.16%14,11022.48%1,4802.36%33,06852.68%62,768
Scott6,12258.18%4,26840.56%1321.25%1,85417.62%10,522
Sharkey69231.60%1,47967.53%190.87%-787-35.94%2,190
Simpson7,39364.74%3,87433.93%1521.33%3,51930.82%11,419
Smith5,92877.72%1,61721.20%821.08%4,31156.52%7,627
Stone5,30675.32%1,57322.33%1662.36%3,73352.99%7,045
Sunflower2,79429.11%6,72570.07%790.82%-3,931-40.96%9,598
Tallahatchie2,46241.94%3,33756.85%711.21%-875-14.91%5,870
Tate7,49564.46%3,92633.77%2061.77%3,56930.70%11,627
Tippah7,24078.40%1,84219.95%1531.66%5,39858.45%9,235
Tishomingo7,16685.61%99911.93%2062.46%6,16773.67%8,371
Tunica85323.91%2,66774.77%471.32%-1,814-50.86%3,567
Union9,23580.33%2,01217.50%2492.17%7,22362.83%11,496
Walthall4,05658.62%2,79040.32%731.06%1,26618.30%6,919
Warren9,76750.30%9,28447.82%3651.88%4832.49%19,416
Washington5,24431.17%11,38067.64%2011.19%-6,136-36.47%16,825
Wayne5,99062.40%3,52436.71%850.89%2,46625.69%9,599
Webster3,97678.44%1,01920.10%741.46%2,95758.33%5,069
Wilkinson1,31831.25%2,85767.73%431.02%-1,539-36.49%4,218
Winston4,91055.29%3,85043.35%1211.36%1,06011.94%8,881
Yalobusha3,37655.55%2,58242.49%1191.96%79413.07%6,077
Yazoo4,59845.66%5,36953.32%1031.02%-771-7.66%10,070
Totals700,71457.94%485,13140.11%23,5122.94%215,58317.83%1,209,357
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won three of four congressional districts.[15]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
1st65%32%Trent Kelly
2nd35%64%Bennie Thompson
3rd61%37%Gregg Harper
4th69%28%Steven Palazzo


Analysis

[edit]
Per the county swing map, most Mississippi counties barely swung towards Trump.

As expected, Trump won the state, with the state shifting rightward by 6%. The fiveDeep South states did not shift particularly hard towards Trump in 2016, and Georgia outright swung leftward. This was due to a combination of racial polarization and the state's white voters without college degrees already being extremely Republican. Mississippi is 38% Black, and most of the state's counties narrowly swung towards Trump due to extremely high racial polarization.

The regions of the country that swung the hardest towards Trump were instead theUpland South (i.e. West Virginia and Kentucky), the Midwest, and theNorthern United States.[16]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedNovember 29, 2020.
  2. ^abcHosemann, Delbert (November 8, 2016)."Statewide Recapitulation Report"(PDF).Secretary of State of Mississippi.Archived(PDF) from the original on June 27, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 6, 2025.
  3. ^Rappeport, Alan (March 8, 2016)."Hillary Clinton Wins the Mississippi Democratic Primary".The New York Times Politics and Washington. RetrievedJanuary 13, 2023.
  4. ^The Green Papers
  5. ^Mississippi Secretary of State
  6. ^Journal, Daily."New Albany".Daily Journal.
  7. ^"Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours".Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  8. ^"Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com".Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  9. ^"Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedAugust 16, 2021.
  10. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President".Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  11. ^Todd, Chuck."NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead".NBC News. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  12. ^"2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  13. ^"Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge".Fox News. November 7, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  14. ^"The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election".Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  15. ^Walter, Amy; Wasserman, David; Cook, Charlie; Walter, Amy (April 7, 2017)."Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedJune 26, 2020.
  16. ^Silver, Nate (November 22, 2016)."Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump".FiveThirtyEight.

External links

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