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The2016 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican nominee, businessmanDonald Trump, and his running mateIndiana GovernorMike Pence againstDemocratic nominee, formerSecretary of StateHillary Clinton, and her running mate VirginiaSenatorTim Kaine. At that time, Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
Prior to the election, Michigan was considered to be a state Clinton was favored to win. However, Trump unexpectedly won Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23%, with 47.50% of the total votes over Clinton's 47.27%. This made Michigan 2.33% more Republican than the nation-at-large. The state was the last to be called by most major news networks due to the close nature and the need to count provisional and absentee ballots; most networks declared Trump the winner of Michigan's electors three weeks after Election Day.[4][5] This is the narrowest margin of victory in Michigan's history in presidential elections, as well as the narrowest margin of any state in the 2016 election. Trump's victory in Michigan was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from whiteworking-class citizens in the state'srural areas, a demographic that had previously tended to either vote for the Democratic candidate or did not vote at all.[6] By winning Michigan, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state sinceGeorge H. W. Bush in1988. Michigan also became one of eleven states to vote forBill Clinton in1992 and1996 which Hillary Clinton lost.
Michigan's largest county, Wayne County, home to Detroit, voted for Clinton by 37 points. She also managed to hold on to suburban Oakland County, the state's second-largest county, where residents tend to be more diverse and more white-collar, where instead third-party candidates gained votes, whilst Trump flipped the state's third largest county, Macomb County, which is home to more socially conservative but economically populist whiteblue-collar workers. As of the2024 U.S. presidential election, this is the last time in whichKent County andLeelanau County voted for the Republican candidate, and the only time since1976 that the Democratic presidential nominee won the nationwide popular vote without winning Michigan.
The2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state ofMichigan as one of theDemocratic primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. On the same day, the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary.Bernie Sanders' narrow win was one of the largest upsets in American political history, with polling before the primary showing him trailingHillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.
Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[7]
| Michigan Democratic primary, March 8, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Bernie Sanders | 598,943 | 49.68% | 67 | 0 | 67 |
| Hillary Clinton | 581,775 | 48.26% | 63 | 10 | 73 |
| Uncommitted | 21,601 | 1.79% | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| Martin O'Malley(withdrawn) | 2,363 | 0.20% | |||
| Rocky De La Fuente | 870 | 0.07% | |||
| Total | 1,205,552 | 100% | 130 | 17 | 147 |
| Source:[8] | |||||
Four candidates participated in the Republican primary.[9]
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 Election results by county Election results by municipality
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Detroit, March 3
| Candidate | Airtime[10] | Polls[11] |
|---|---|---|
| Trump | 26:40 | 35.6% |
| Cruz | 19:23 | 19.8% |
| Rubio | 13:32 | 17.4% |
| Kasich | 15:20 | 8.8% |
The eleventh debate was held on March 3, 2016, at theFox Theatre in downtownDetroit, Michigan.[12] It was the third debate to air onFox News Channel.[13]Special Report anchorBret Baier,The Kelly File anchorMegyn Kelly andFox News Sunday hostChris Wallace served as moderators.[14] It led into the Maine, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii contests. Fox announced that in order for candidates to qualify, they must have at least 3 percent support in the five most recent national polls by March 1 at 5 pm.[15] Ben Carson said on March 2 he would not be attending the debate.[16][17]
Thirteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[7]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 483,753 | 36.55% | 25 | 0 | 25 |
| Ted Cruz | 326,617 | 24.68% | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| John Kasich | 321,115 | 24.26% | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| Marco Rubio | 123,587 | 9.34% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson(withdrawn) | 21,349 | 1.61% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 22,824 | 1.72% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush(withdrawn) | 10,685 | 0.81% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul(withdrawn) | 3,774 | 0.29% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie(withdrawn) | 3,116 | 0.24% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee(withdrawn) | 2,603 | 0.20% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum(withdrawn) | 1,722 | 0.13% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina(withdrawn) | 1,415 | 0.11% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Pataki(withdrawn) | 591 | 0.04% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lindsey Graham(withdrawn) | 438 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 1,323,589 | 100.00% | 59 | 0 | 59 |
| Source:The Green Papers | |||||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[18] | Likely D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[19] | Lean D | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[20] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[21] | Lean D | November 8, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[22] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[23] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| Fox News[25] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
Except for losing one poll in August 2015, and tying with Trump in a poll in September 2015, Clinton won every pre-election poll with margins between 4 and 12 points until November 2016. In late October 2016, Clinton's lead narrowed significantly towards the election. Trump also won the last poll conducted on election day 49% to 47%.[26] The average of the last three polls had Clinton leading Trump 47.6% to 45%.[27] Ultimately, Trump's win here was an extreme surprise.
The following were given write-in status:[28]
| 2016 United States presidential election in Michigan | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | Mike Pence | 2,279,543 | 47.50% | 16 | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | Tim Kaine | 2,268,839 | 47.27% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | Bill Weld | 172,136 | 3.59% | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein | Ajamu Baraka | 51,463 | 1.07% | 0 | |
| U.S. Taxpayers' | Darrell L. Castle | Scott N. Bradley | 16,139 | 0.34% | 0 | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin (write-in) | - | 8,177 | 0.17% | 0 | |
| Natural Law | Mimi Soltysik | Angela Nicole Walker | 2,209 | 0.05% | 0 | |
| - | Others | - | 778 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Totals | 4,799,284 | 100.00% | 16 | |||
| County | Donald Trump Republican | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alcona | 4,201 | 67.78% | 1,732 | 27.94% | 265 | 4.28% | 2,469 | 39.84% | 6,198 |
| Alger | 2,585 | 57.22% | 1,663 | 36.81% | 270 | 5.97% | 922 | 20.41% | 4,518 |
| Allegan | 34,183 | 60.91% | 18,050 | 32.16% | 3,887 | 6.93% | 16,133 | 28.75% | 56,120 |
| Alpena | 9,090 | 61.55% | 4,877 | 33.02% | 801 | 5.43% | 4,213 | 28.53% | 14,768 |
| Antrim | 8,469 | 61.97% | 4,448 | 32.55% | 750 | 5.48% | 4,021 | 29.42% | 13,667 |
| Arenac | 4,950 | 64.04% | 2,384 | 30.84% | 395 | 5.12% | 2,566 | 33.20% | 7,729 |
| Baraga | 2,158 | 61.34% | 1,156 | 32.86% | 204 | 5.80% | 1,002 | 28.48% | 3,518 |
| Barry | 19,202 | 62.92% | 9,114 | 29.87% | 2,201 | 7.21% | 10,088 | 33.05% | 30,517 |
| Bay | 28,328 | 53.17% | 21,642 | 40.62% | 3,304 | 6.21% | 6,686 | 12.55% | 53,274 |
| Benzie | 5,539 | 54.16% | 4,108 | 40.16% | 581 | 5.68% | 1,431 | 14.00% | 10,228 |
| Berrien | 38,647 | 53.65% | 29,495 | 40.95% | 3,889 | 5.40% | 9,152 | 12.70% | 72,031 |
| Branch | 11,786 | 66.73% | 5,061 | 28.65% | 816 | 4.62% | 6,725 | 38.08% | 17,663 |
| Calhoun | 31,494 | 53.47% | 24,157 | 41.01% | 3,251 | 5.52% | 7,337 | 12.46% | 58,902 |
| Cass | 14,243 | 63.04% | 7,270 | 32.18% | 1,082 | 4.78% | 6,973 | 30.86% | 22,595 |
| Charlevoix | 8,674 | 59.19% | 5,137 | 35.06% | 843 | 5.75% | 3,537 | 24.13% | 14,654 |
| Cheboygan | 8,683 | 63.51% | 4,302 | 31.47% | 687 | 5.02% | 4,381 | 32.04% | 13,672 |
| Chippewa | 9,122 | 58.65% | 5,379 | 34.59% | 1,051 | 6.76% | 3,743 | 24.06% | 15,552 |
| Clare | 8,505 | 63.24% | 4,249 | 31.59% | 695 | 5.17% | 4,256 | 31.65% | 13,449 |
| Clinton | 21,636 | 52.85% | 16,492 | 40.29% | 2,809 | 6.86% | 5,144 | 12.56% | 40,937 |
| Crawford | 4,354 | 63.62% | 2,110 | 30.83% | 380 | 5.55% | 2,244 | 32.79% | 6,844 |
| Delta | 11,121 | 59.81% | 6,436 | 34.61% | 1,037 | 5.58% | 4,685 | 25.20% | 18,594 |
| Dickinson | 8,580 | 64.84% | 3,923 | 29.65% | 729 | 5.51% | 4,657 | 35.19% | 13,232 |
| Eaton | 27,609 | 48.80% | 24,938 | 44.08% | 4,028 | 7.12% | 2,671 | 4.72% | 56,575 |
| Emmet | 10,616 | 55.89% | 6,972 | 36.71% | 1,406 | 7.40% | 3,644 | 19.18% | 18,994 |
| Genesee | 84,175 | 42.59% | 102,751 | 51.99% | 10,715 | 5.42% | -18,576 | -9.40% | 197,641 |
| Gladwin | 8,124 | 64.77% | 3,794 | 30.25% | 624 | 4.98% | 4,330 | 34.52% | 12,542 |
| Gogebic | 4,018 | 54.42% | 2,925 | 39.62% | 440 | 5.96% | 1,093 | 14.80% | 7,383 |
| Grand Traverse | 27,413 | 52.73% | 20,965 | 40.33% | 3,607 | 6.94% | 6,448 | 12.40% | 51,985 |
| Gratiot | 9,880 | 60.01% | 5,666 | 34.41% | 919 | 5.58% | 4,214 | 25.60% | 16,465 |
| Hillsdale | 14,095 | 70.69% | 4,799 | 24.07% | 1,046 | 5.24% | 9,296 | 46.62% | 19,940 |
| Houghton | 8,475 | 53.77% | 6,018 | 38.18% | 1,268 | 8.05% | 2,457 | 15.59% | 15,761 |
| Huron | 10,692 | 67.06% | 4,579 | 28.72% | 673 | 4.22% | 6,113 | 38.34% | 15,944 |
| Ingham | 43,868 | 33.20% | 79,110 | 59.87% | 9,157 | 6.93% | -35,242 | -26.67% | 132,135 |
| Ionia | 16,635 | 61.52% | 8,352 | 30.89% | 2,052 | 7.59% | 8,283 | 30.63% | 27,039 |
| Iosco | 8,345 | 62.14% | 4,345 | 32.36% | 739 | 5.50% | 4,000 | 29.78% | 13,429 |
| Iron | 3,675 | 61.66% | 2,004 | 33.62% | 281 | 4.72% | 1,671 | 28.04% | 5,960 |
| Isabella | 12,338 | 48.31% | 11,404 | 44.65% | 1,798 | 7.04% | 934 | 3.66% | 25,540 |
| Jackson | 39,793 | 56.75% | 25,795 | 36.78% | 4,537 | 6.47% | 13,998 | 19.97% | 70,125 |
| Kalamazoo | 51,034 | 40.41% | 67,148 | 53.17% | 8,117 | 6.42% | -16,114 | -12.76% | 126,299 |
| Kalkaska | 6,116 | 69.24% | 2,280 | 25.81% | 437 | 4.95% | 3,836 | 43.43% | 8,833 |
| Kent | 148,180 | 47.66% | 138,683 | 44.61% | 24,031 | 7.73% | 9,497 | 3.05% | 310,894 |
| Keweenaw | 814 | 56.76% | 527 | 36.75% | 93 | 6.49% | 287 | 20.01% | 1,434 |
| Lake | 3,159 | 58.96% | 1,939 | 36.19% | 260 | 4.85% | 1,220 | 22.77% | 5,358 |
| Lapeer | 30,037 | 66.48% | 12,734 | 28.18% | 2,412 | 5.34% | 17,303 | 38.30% | 45,183 |
| Leelanau | 7,239 | 48.61% | 6,774 | 45.49% | 879 | 5.90% | 465 | 3.12% | 14,892 |
| Lenawee | 26,430 | 57.09% | 16,750 | 36.18% | 3,118 | 6.73% | 9,680 | 20.91% | 46,298 |
| Livingston | 65,680 | 61.68% | 34,384 | 32.29% | 6,425 | 6.03% | 31,296 | 29.39% | 106,489 |
| Luce | 1,756 | 67.77% | 681 | 26.28% | 154 | 5.95% | 1,075 | 41.49% | 2,591 |
| Mackinac | 3,744 | 60.94% | 2,085 | 33.94% | 315 | 5.12% | 1,659 | 27.00% | 6,144 |
| Macomb | 224,665 | 53.58% | 176,317 | 42.05% | 18,330 | 4.37% | 48,348 | 11.53% | 419,312 |
| Manistee | 6,915 | 54.62% | 4,979 | 39.33% | 766 | 6.05% | 1,936 | 15.29% | 12,660 |
| Marquette | 14,646 | 44.09% | 16,042 | 48.29% | 2,530 | 7.62% | -1,396 | -4.20% | 33,218 |
| Mason | 8,505 | 57.50% | 5,281 | 35.70% | 1,006 | 6.80% | 3,224 | 21.80% | 14,792 |
| Mecosta | 10,305 | 59.71% | 5,827 | 33.76% | 1,127 | 6.53% | 4,478 | 25.95% | 17,259 |
| Menominee | 6,702 | 61.92% | 3,539 | 32.70% | 583 | 5.38% | 3,163 | 29.22% | 10,824 |
| Midland | 23,846 | 55.75% | 15,635 | 36.55% | 3,295 | 7.70% | 8,211 | 19.20% | 42,776 |
| Missaukee | 5,386 | 73.61% | 1,565 | 21.39% | 366 | 5.00% | 3,821 | 52.22% | 7,317 |
| Monroe | 43,261 | 57.95% | 26,863 | 35.98% | 4,531 | 6.07% | 16,398 | 21.97% | 74,655 |
| Montcalm | 16,907 | 63.18% | 7,874 | 29.42% | 1,979 | 7.40% | 9,033 | 33.76% | 26,760 |
| Montmorency | 3,498 | 69.52% | 1,287 | 25.58% | 247 | 4.90% | 2,211 | 43.94% | 5,032 |
| Muskegon | 36,127 | 45.89% | 37,304 | 47.39% | 5,292 | 6.72% | -1,177 | -1.50% | 78,723 |
| Newaygo | 15,173 | 66.60% | 6,212 | 27.27% | 1,397 | 6.13% | 8,961 | 39.33% | 22,782 |
| Oakland | 289,203 | 43.23% | 343,070 | 51.29% | 36,652 | 5.48% | -53,867 | -8.06% | 668,925 |
| Oceana | 7,228 | 60.59% | 3,973 | 33.30% | 729 | 6.11% | 3,255 | 27.29% | 11,930 |
| Ogemaw | 6,827 | 65.39% | 3,030 | 29.02% | 583 | 5.59% | 3,797 | 36.37% | 10,440 |
| Ontonagon | 2,066 | 60.18% | 1,176 | 34.26% | 191 | 5.56% | 890 | 25.92% | 3,433 |
| Osceola | 7,336 | 69.15% | 2,705 | 25.50% | 568 | 5.35% | 4,631 | 43.65% | 10,609 |
| Oscoda | 2,843 | 69.48% | 1,044 | 25.51% | 205 | 5.01% | 1,799 | 43.97% | 4,092 |
| Otsego | 8,266 | 65.55% | 3,556 | 28.20% | 788 | 6.25% | 4,710 | 37.35% | 12,610 |
| Ottawa | 88,467 | 61.50% | 44,973 | 31.26% | 10,408 | 7.24% | 43,494 | 30.24% | 143,848 |
| Presque Isle | 4,488 | 61.84% | 2,400 | 33.07% | 369 | 5.09% | 2,088 | 28.77% | 7,257 |
| Roscommon | 8,141 | 62.16% | 4,287 | 32.74% | 668 | 5.10% | 3,854 | 29.42% | 13,096 |
| Saginaw | 45,469 | 47.97% | 44,396 | 46.84% | 4,915 | 5.19% | 1,073 | 1.13% | 94,780 |
| Sanilac | 13,446 | 69.85% | 4,873 | 25.32% | 930 | 4.83% | 8,573 | 44.53% | 19,249 |
| Schoolcraft | 2,556 | 61.19% | 1,369 | 32.77% | 252 | 6.04% | 1,187 | 28.42% | 4,177 |
| Shiawassee | 19,230 | 56.37% | 12,546 | 36.78% | 2,335 | 6.85% | 6,684 | 19.59% | 34,111 |
| St. Clair | 49,051 | 62.88% | 24,553 | 31.48% | 4,399 | 5.64% | 24,498 | 31.40% | 78,003 |
| St. Joseph | 14,884 | 62.10% | 7,526 | 31.40% | 1,557 | 6.50% | 7,358 | 30.70% | 23,967 |
| Tuscola | 17,102 | 65.96% | 7,429 | 28.65% | 1,397 | 5.39% | 9,673 | 37.31% | 25,928 |
| Van Buren | 17,890 | 53.77% | 13,258 | 39.84% | 2,126 | 6.39% | 4,632 | 13.93% | 33,274 |
| Washtenaw | 50,631 | 26.64% | 128,483 | 67.59% | 10,965 | 5.77% | -77,852 | -40.95% | 190,079 |
| Wayne | 228,993 | 29.26% | 519,444 | 66.36% | 34,282 | 4.38% | -290,451 | -37.10% | 782,719 |
| Wexford | 10,000 | 65.06% | 4,436 | 28.86% | 934 | 6.08% | 5,564 | 36.20% | 15,370 |
| Totals | 2,279,543 | 47.25% | 2,268,839 | 47.03% | 276,160 | 5.72% | 10,704 | 0.22% | 4,824,542 |
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic
|
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[29]
Trump won nine of 14 congressional districts.[30]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 58% | 37% | Dan Benishek |
| Jack Bergman | |||
| 2nd | 56% | 38% | Bill Huizenga |
| 3rd | 52% | 42% | Justin Amash |
| 4th | 59% | 35% | John Moolenaar |
| 5th | 45% | 50% | Dan Kildee |
| 6th | 51% | 43% | Fred Upton |
| 7th | 56% | 39% | Tim Walberg |
| 8th | 51% | 44% | Mike Bishop |
| 9th | 44% | 51% | Sander Levin |
| 10th | 64% | 32% | Candice Miller |
| Paul Mitchell | |||
| 11th | 50% | 45% | David Trott |
| 12th | 34% | 61% | Debbie Dingell |
| 13th | 18% | 79% | John Conyers Jr. |
| 14th | 18% | 79% | Brenda Lawrence |
Although won by Democratic candidates in every election since1992, sometimes by decisive margins, in 2016 Michigan was considered a swing state and received much attention from Republican candidate Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton's campaign was confident they would win the state, and projected a 5-point win up until election day.[31] Trump was able to win the state for the first time sinceGeorge H. W. Bush won it in 1988,[32] albeit by a narrow 0.23% margin of victory. On Election Day,Detroit Free Press had prematurely called the state for Clinton at 9:15pm before retracting the call three hours later,[33] an error which had been common in many sources at the2000 election, in the states ofFlorida andNew Mexico.
Trump was able to flip Michigan, making large gains throughout the state except for a handful of heavily college-educated counties (see the map). In particular,Washtenaw County (home to theUniversity of Michigan), voted to the left ofWayne County (home toDetroit), despite Washtenaw County being just 11.5% Black and Wayne County being 37.3% Black. Washtenaw has continued to vote to the left of Wayne in every presidential election since 2016.[34]
Donald Trump's upset victory highlighted Michigan's new status as a swing state, being bitterly contested in the2020 election, when former Democratic Vice PresidentJoe Bidennarrowly flipped it back into the Democratic column, and in2024 when Trump flipped it back into the Republican column. Trump's State Campaign was run byScott Hagerstrom (State Director), CJ Galdes (Deputy State Director),Christopher Morris (Field Director), andTia Jurkiw[unfit] (Events Coordinator).[35][36] Trump was the first Republican to win Bay, Lake, and Saginaw counties since 1984, Gogebic County since 1972, and Isabella County since 1988. Wayne County was not the most Democratic county in the state for the first time since 1984 (instead, that distinction was held by neighboringWashtenaw County), which has remained true in every election since.
The Michigan Board of Canvassers certified Trump's lead of 10,704 votes over Clinton, a 0.23% margin, on November 28.[37] The deadline to request a recount was then set for November 30 at 2:00 p.m. That same day,Green Party candidateJill Stein's campaign requesteda hand recount, but the recount was halted December 1 after the state received an objection from Trump representatives.[38] The objection was rejected by Michigan's Bureau of Elections on December 2, and a federal judge ordered the recount to start again on December 5.[38] Finally, the recount was halted on December 7 after a federal judge issued an order to Michigan's Board of Elections, thus making Trump's win official.[39]
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{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)State and district results of the2016 United States presidential election | ||
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