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The2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, businessmanDonald Trump, and his running mateIndiana GovernorMike Pence against theDemocratic Party nominee, formerSecretary of StateHillary Clinton, and her running mate VirginiaSenatorTim Kaine. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]
Trump won the state with 51.15% of the vote, while Clinton received 41.74% (a margin of 9.41%). Clinton's performance in Iowa was the worst performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since1980. Trump, besides being the first Republican to carry the state sinceGeorge W. Bush in2004, won over a dozen counties that had not voted Republican sinceRonald Reagan was on the ticket; won two counties that had last voted Republican inRichard Nixon's landslide victory in1972; and also wonDubuque County, which had last voted Republican in1956.[2]
In 2016, Trump carried Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican candidate since Reagan in 1980, and he was the first Republican to win an outright majority of the state's vote since Reagan's historic1984 landslide. Trump enjoyed the support of working-class whites in the agricultural industry, as well as the endorsement of Iowa's GOP establishment.[3][4] Trump later carried the state by 13% in2024, surpassing Reagan's margin in 1980.
The incumbentPresident of the United States,Barack Obama, aDemocrat and formerU.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected to the presidency in2008, running with U.S. SenatorJoe Biden of Delaware. Defeating theRepublican nominee, SenatorJohn McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[5][6] Obama succeeded two-term Republican PresidentGeorge W. Bush, the formerGovernor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the2012 presidential election, defeating former Massachusetts GovernorMitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes.[7] Although Barack Obama's approval rating in theRealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year.[8][9] Analyst Nate Cohn noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa.[10]
President Obama was not eligible to be re-elected after having served two terms. Obama's running-mate and two-termVice President Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.[11]
There is no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates tocounty conventions supportingHillary Clinton,Martin O'Malley, andBernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates.
| Candidate | State delegate equivalents | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
 Hillary Clinton | 700.47 | 49.84% | 23 | 6 | 29 |
| Bernie Sanders | 696.92 | 49.59% | 21 | 0 | 21 |
| Martin O'Malley | 7.63 | 0.54% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 0.46 | 0.03% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 1,405.48 | 100% | 44 | 7 | 51 |
| Source:[12][13] | |||||
In early March, the delegates chosen in the Caucuses met chose delegates to the Congressional District Conventions.
 | This sectionshould include a summary of2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses. SeeWikipedia:Summary style for information on how to incorporate it into this article's main text.(July 2016) |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Ted Cruz | 51,666 | 27.64% | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Donald Trump | 45,427 | 24.3% | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Marco Rubio | 43,165 | 23.12% | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Ben Carson | 17,395 | 9.3% | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Rand Paul | 8,481 | 4.54% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeb Bush | 5,238 | 2.8% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Carly Fiorina | 3,485 | 1.86% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| John Kasich | 3,474 | 1.86% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Huckabee | 3,345 | 1.79% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Christie | 3,284 | 1.76% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum | 1,783 | 0.95% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 117 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Gilmore | 12 | 0.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 186,932 | 100.00% | 30 | 0 | 30 |
| Source:"Iowa".cnn.com. RetrievedNovember 23, 2016. | |||||
Up until late August 2016, the election was close, with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton winning polls but neither taking a serious lead. In September 2016, Trump gained momentum, by winning a poll 44% to 39% in early September and then winning 3 more polls in a row by margins larger than 5%. From late September 2016 until election day, Trump won every poll but one. The final poll average showed Donald Trump ahead 44% to 41%, with many undecided voters that mostly swung to Donald Trump on election night.[14] The latest poll also showed Trump ahead by 46% to 39%.[15]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| CNN[16] | Lean R(flip) | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[17] | Lean R(flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[18] | Likely R(flip) | November 8, 2016 |
| NBC[19] | Lean R(flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[20] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[21] | Tilt R(flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Lean R(flip) | November 7, 2016 |
| 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | Mike Pence | 800,983 | 51.15% | 6 | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | Tim Kaine | 653,669 | 41.74% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | Bill Weld | 59,186 | 3.78% | 0 | |
| Write-in | Various | Various | 17,746 | 1.13% | 0 | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin | Nathan Johnson | 12,366 | 0.79% | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein | Ajamu Baraka | 11,479 | 0.73% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell L. Castle | Scott N. Bradley | 5,335 | 0.34% | 0 | |
| New Independent | Lynn Kahn | Jay Stolba | 2,247 | 0.14% | 0 | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Dan Vacek | Mark Elworth | 2,246 | 0.14% | 0 | |
| Independent | Rocky De La Fuente | Michael Steinberg | 451 | 0.03% | 0 | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva | Dennis J. Banks | 323 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,566,031 | 100.00% | 6 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 72.0% | |||||
| Source:Iowa Secretary of State | ||||||
| County | Donald Trump Republican | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adair | 2,461 | 64.58% | 1,133 | 29.73% | 217 | 5.69% | 1,328 | 34.85% | 3,811 |
| Adams | 1,395 | 66.24% | 565 | 26.83% | 146 | 6.93% | 830 | 39.41% | 2,106 |
| Allamakee | 4,093 | 59.12% | 2,421 | 34.97% | 409 | 5.91% | 1,672 | 24.15% | 6,923 |
| Appanoose | 4,033 | 65.73% | 1,814 | 29.56% | 289 | 4.71% | 2,219 | 36.17% | 6,136 |
| Audubon | 2,136 | 62.60% | 1,080 | 31.65% | 196 | 5.75% | 1,056 | 30.95% | 3,412 |
| Benton | 8,232 | 59.46% | 4,678 | 33.79% | 934 | 6.75% | 3,554 | 25.67% | 13,844 |
| Black Hawk | 27,476 | 42.66% | 32,233 | 50.05% | 4,696 | 7.29% | -4,757 | -7.39% | 64,405 |
| Boone | 7,484 | 52.72% | 5,541 | 39.03% | 1,171 | 8.25% | 1,943 | 13.69% | 14,196 |
| Bremer | 7,208 | 53.24% | 5,356 | 39.56% | 974 | 7.20% | 1,852 | 13.68% | 13,538 |
| Buchanan | 5,510 | 53.75% | 3,970 | 38.72% | 772 | 7.53% | 1,540 | 15.03% | 10,252 |
| Buena Vista | 4,903 | 59.23% | 2,856 | 34.50% | 519 | 6.27% | 2,047 | 24.73% | 8,278 |
| Butler | 4,921 | 65.50% | 2,157 | 28.71% | 435 | 5.79% | 2,764 | 36.79% | 7,513 |
| Calhoun | 3,468 | 67.22% | 1,398 | 27.10% | 293 | 5.68% | 2,070 | 40.12% | 5,159 |
| Carroll | 6,638 | 62.96% | 3,309 | 31.38% | 597 | 5.66% | 3,329 | 31.58% | 10,544 |
| Cass | 4,761 | 66.82% | 1,951 | 27.38% | 413 | 5.80% | 2,810 | 39.44% | 7,125 |
| Cedar | 5,295 | 55.50% | 3,599 | 37.72% | 647 | 6.78% | 1,696 | 17.78% | 9,541 |
| Cerro Gordo | 11,621 | 50.60% | 9,862 | 42.94% | 1,482 | 6.46% | 1,759 | 7.66% | 22,965 |
| Cherokee | 4,192 | 66.99% | 1,679 | 26.83% | 387 | 6.18% | 2,513 | 40.16% | 6,258 |
| Chickasaw | 3,742 | 58.15% | 2,266 | 35.21% | 427 | 6.64% | 1,476 | 22.94% | 6,435 |
| Clarke | 2,713 | 60.91% | 1,465 | 32.89% | 276 | 6.20% | 1,248 | 28.02% | 4,454 |
| Clay | 5,877 | 68.20% | 2,249 | 26.10% | 491 | 5.70% | 3,628 | 42.10% | 8,617 |
| Clayton | 5,317 | 58.24% | 3,237 | 35.46% | 575 | 6.30% | 2,080 | 22.78% | 9,129 |
| Clinton | 11,276 | 48.88% | 10,095 | 43.76% | 1,696 | 7.36% | 1,181 | 5.12% | 23,067 |
| Crawford | 4,617 | 66.58% | 1,991 | 28.71% | 327 | 4.71% | 2,626 | 37.87% | 6,935 |
| Dallas | 19,339 | 50.56% | 15,701 | 41.05% | 3,212 | 8.39% | 3,638 | 9.51% | 38,252 |
| Davis | 2,723 | 70.14% | 977 | 25.17% | 182 | 4.69% | 1,746 | 44.97% | 3,882 |
| Decatur | 2,296 | 61.49% | 1,201 | 32.16% | 237 | 6.35% | 1,095 | 29.33% | 3,734 |
| Delaware | 5,694 | 61.62% | 2,957 | 32.00% | 590 | 6.38% | 2,737 | 29.62% | 9,241 |
| Des Moines | 9,529 | 49.88% | 8,212 | 42.99% | 1,362 | 7.13% | 1,317 | 6.89% | 19,103 |
| Dickinson | 6,753 | 65.22% | 3,056 | 29.52% | 545 | 5.26% | 3,697 | 35.70% | 10,354 |
| Dubuque | 23,460 | 47.18% | 22,850 | 45.96% | 3,411 | 6.86% | 610 | 1.22% | 49,721 |
| Emmet | 3,124 | 65.73% | 1,357 | 28.55% | 272 | 5.72% | 1,767 | 37.18% | 4,753 |
| Fayette | 5,620 | 56.34% | 3,689 | 36.98% | 666 | 6.68% | 1,931 | 19.36% | 9,975 |
| Floyd | 4,375 | 54.28% | 3,179 | 39.44% | 506 | 6.28% | 1,196 | 14.84% | 8,060 |
| Franklin | 3,163 | 63.67% | 1,493 | 30.05% | 312 | 6.28% | 1,670 | 33.62% | 4,968 |
| Fremont | 2,407 | 66.95% | 963 | 26.79% | 225 | 6.26% | 1,444 | 40.16% | 3,595 |
| Greene | 2,820 | 58.49% | 1,691 | 35.08% | 310 | 6.43% | 1,129 | 23.41% | 4,821 |
| Grundy | 4,527 | 65.88% | 1,856 | 27.01% | 489 | 7.11% | 2,671 | 38.87% | 6,872 |
| Guthrie | 3,628 | 63.10% | 1,732 | 30.12% | 390 | 6.78% | 1,896 | 32.98% | 5,750 |
| Hamilton | 4,463 | 58.01% | 2,726 | 35.43% | 505 | 6.56% | 1,737 | 22.58% | 7,694 |
| Hancock | 3,977 | 67.74% | 1,587 | 27.03% | 307 | 5.23% | 2,390 | 40.71% | 5,871 |
| Hardin | 5,254 | 61.57% | 2,787 | 32.66% | 492 | 5.77% | 2,467 | 28.91% | 8,533 |
| Harrison | 4,902 | 65.67% | 2,131 | 28.55% | 432 | 5.78% | 2,771 | 37.12% | 7,465 |
| Henry | 5,779 | 61.45% | 2,904 | 30.88% | 721 | 7.67% | 2,875 | 30.57% | 9,404 |
| Howard | 2,611 | 57.27% | 1,677 | 36.78% | 271 | 5.95% | 934 | 20.49% | 4,559 |
| Humboldt | 3,568 | 70.14% | 1,252 | 24.61% | 267 | 5.25% | 2,316 | 45.53% | 5,087 |
| Ida | 2,655 | 73.50% | 792 | 21.93% | 165 | 4.57% | 1,863 | 51.57% | 3,612 |
| Iowa | 5,205 | 58.46% | 3,084 | 34.64% | 615 | 6.90% | 2,121 | 23.82% | 8,904 |
| Jackson | 5,824 | 56.49% | 3,837 | 37.22% | 649 | 6.29% | 1,987 | 19.27% | 10,310 |
| Jasper | 10,560 | 55.48% | 7,109 | 37.35% | 1,365 | 7.17% | 3,451 | 18.13% | 19,034 |
| Jefferson | 3,748 | 45.95% | 3,710 | 45.49% | 698 | 8.56% | 38 | 0.46% | 8,156 |
| Johnson | 21,044 | 27.35% | 50,200 | 65.25% | 5,696 | 7.40% | -29,156 | -37.90% | 76,940 |
| Jones | 5,720 | 56.45% | 3,787 | 37.37% | 626 | 6.18% | 1,933 | 19.08% | 10,133 |
| Keokuk | 3,390 | 68.00% | 1,342 | 26.92% | 253 | 5.08% | 2,048 | 41.08% | 4,985 |
| Kossuth | 5,653 | 65.68% | 2,543 | 29.55% | 411 | 4.77% | 3,110 | 36.13% | 8,607 |
| Lee | 8,803 | 54.50% | 6,215 | 38.48% | 1,133 | 7.02% | 2,588 | 16.02% | 16,151 |
| Linn | 48,390 | 41.32% | 58,935 | 50.33% | 9,773 | 8.35% | -10,545 | -9.01% | 117,098 |
| Louisa | 3,069 | 61.28% | 1,648 | 32.91% | 291 | 5.81% | 1,421 | 28.37% | 5,008 |
| Lucas | 2,877 | 66.08% | 1,239 | 28.46% | 238 | 5.46% | 1,638 | 37.62% | 4,354 |
| Lyon | 5,192 | 81.42% | 920 | 14.43% | 265 | 4.15% | 4,272 | 66.99% | 6,377 |
| Madison | 5,360 | 62.07% | 2,678 | 31.01% | 598 | 6.92% | 2,682 | 31.06% | 8,636 |
| Mahaska | 7,432 | 69.90% | 2,619 | 24.63% | 581 | 5.47% | 4,813 | 45.27% | 10,632 |
| Marion | 10,962 | 61.53% | 5,482 | 30.77% | 1,372 | 7.70% | 5,480 | 30.76% | 17,816 |
| Marshall | 9,146 | 50.87% | 7,652 | 42.56% | 1,182 | 6.57% | 1,494 | 8.31% | 17,980 |
| Mills | 5,067 | 65.82% | 2,090 | 27.15% | 541 | 7.03% | 2,977 | 38.67% | 7,698 |
| Mitchell | 3,190 | 58.89% | 1,888 | 34.85% | 339 | 6.26% | 1,302 | 24.04% | 5,417 |
| Monona | 3,120 | 68.24% | 1,247 | 27.27% | 205 | 4.49% | 1,873 | 40.97% | 4,572 |
| Monroe | 2,638 | 68.25% | 1,056 | 27.32% | 171 | 4.43% | 1,582 | 40.93% | 3,865 |
| Montgomery | 3,436 | 68.12% | 1,314 | 26.05% | 294 | 5.83% | 2,122 | 42.07% | 5,044 |
| Muscatine | 9,584 | 49.32% | 8,368 | 43.06% | 1,482 | 7.62% | 1,216 | 6.26% | 19,434 |
| O'Brien | 5,752 | 77.67% | 1,315 | 17.76% | 339 | 4.57% | 4,437 | 59.91% | 7,406 |
| Osceola | 2,531 | 78.77% | 552 | 17.18% | 130 | 4.05% | 1,979 | 61.59% | 3,213 |
| Page | 4,893 | 69.46% | 1,807 | 25.65% | 344 | 4.89% | 3,086 | 43.81% | 7,044 |
| Palo Alto | 3,081 | 65.51% | 1,398 | 29.73% | 224 | 4.76% | 1,683 | 35.78% | 4,703 |
| Plymouth | 9,680 | 73.39% | 2,885 | 21.87% | 625 | 4.74% | 6,795 | 51.52% | 13,190 |
| Pocahontas | 2,702 | 69.91% | 963 | 24.92% | 200 | 5.17% | 1,739 | 44.99% | 3,865 |
| Polk | 93,492 | 40.38% | 119,804 | 51.74% | 18,259 | 7.88% | -26,312 | -11.36% | 231,555 |
| Pottawattamie | 24,447 | 57.28% | 15,355 | 35.98% | 2,878 | 6.74% | 9,092 | 21.30% | 42,680 |
| Poweshiek | 4,946 | 50.30% | 4,304 | 43.77% | 583 | 5.93% | 642 | 6.53% | 9,833 |
| Ringgold | 1,824 | 67.38% | 753 | 27.82% | 130 | 4.80% | 1,071 | 39.56% | 2,707 |
| Sac | 3,703 | 71.05% | 1,270 | 24.37% | 239 | 4.58% | 2,433 | 46.68% | 5,212 |
| Scott | 39,149 | 45.41% | 40,440 | 46.90% | 6,631 | 7.69% | -1,291 | -1.49% | 86,220 |
| Shelby | 4,362 | 68.48% | 1,662 | 26.09% | 346 | 5.43% | 2,700 | 42.39% | 6,370 |
| Sioux | 14,785 | 81.26% | 2,300 | 12.64% | 1,109 | 6.10% | 12,485 | 68.62% | 18,194 |
| Story | 19,458 | 38.40% | 25,709 | 50.74% | 5,500 | 10.86% | -6,251 | -12.34% | 50,667 |
| Tama | 4,971 | 56.80% | 3,196 | 36.52% | 585 | 6.68% | 1,775 | 20.28% | 8,752 |
| Taylor | 2,111 | 69.69% | 758 | 25.02% | 160 | 5.29% | 1,353 | 44.67% | 3,029 |
| Union | 3,525 | 60.44% | 1,922 | 32.96% | 385 | 6.60% | 1,603 | 27.48% | 5,832 |
| Van Buren | 2,527 | 70.96% | 845 | 23.73% | 189 | 5.31% | 1,682 | 47.23% | 3,561 |
| Wapello | 8,715 | 57.53% | 5,594 | 36.93% | 840 | 5.54% | 3,121 | 20.60% | 15,149 |
| Warren | 14,814 | 54.26% | 10,411 | 38.14% | 2,075 | 7.60% | 4,403 | 16.12% | 27,300 |
| Washington | 6,173 | 56.48% | 3,943 | 36.08% | 813 | 7.44% | 2,230 | 20.40% | 10,929 |
| Wayne | 2,069 | 70.37% | 719 | 24.46% | 152 | 5.17% | 1,350 | 45.91% | 2,940 |
| Webster | 10,056 | 57.69% | 6,305 | 36.17% | 1,069 | 6.14% | 3,751 | 21.52% | 17,430 |
| Winnebago | 3,447 | 59.56% | 1,931 | 33.37% | 409 | 7.07% | 1,516 | 26.19% | 5,787 |
| Winneshiek | 5,344 | 47.03% | 5,254 | 46.24% | 764 | 6.73% | 90 | 0.79% | 11,362 |
| Woodbury | 24,727 | 56.56% | 16,210 | 37.08% | 2,781 | 6.36% | 8,517 | 19.48% | 43,718 |
| Worth | 2,453 | 57.62% | 1,530 | 35.94% | 274 | 6.44% | 923 | 21.68% | 4,257 |
| Wright | 3,800 | 63.06% | 1,896 | 31.46% | 330 | 5.48% | 1,904 | 31.60% | 6,026 |
| Totals | 800,983 | 51.15% | 653,669 | 41.74% | 111,379 | 7.11% | 147,314 | 9.41% | 1,566,031 |
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic
|
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[23]
Trump won all four of the congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[24]
| District | Clinton | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 45% | 48% | Rod Blum |
| 2nd | 44% | 48% | Dave Loebsack |
| 3rd | 44% | 48% | David Young |
| 4th | 33% | 60% | Steve King |
Trump made massive gains in nearly all of the state’s counties, except for the most college-educated ones, particularlyJohnson County (home to theUniversity of Iowa).[25]
The difference of 9.4% points was the largest winning margin for Trump in a state that had voted forBarack Obama in2012. This was also the first time since1976 that Iowa voted to the right of Texas, which Trump won in this election by 8.99 points. Trump carried 93 out of 99 counties, the most for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since 1980, and he flipped 32 counties won by Obama in 2012, the most out of any state.[23] This was the first time since1988 in which Iowa did not go for the winner of the popular vote. It was also the first time since2004 (and only the second since1984) that Iowa would vote for a Republican candidate. This is also the first election since 1980 in which a non-incumbent Republican won the state.
State and district results of the2016 United States presidential election | ||
|---|---|---|
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