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| Turnout | 74.48%[1] 2.94pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results Precinct results
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The2016 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Florida voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican nominee, businessmanDonald Trump, and his running mateIndiana GovernorMike Pence, against theDemocratic nominee, formerU.S. Secretary of StateHillary Clinton, and her running mateVirginiaSenatorTim Kaine. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
Trump carried the state with a plurality of 49.0% of the popular vote, which included a 1.2% winning margin over Clinton, who had 47.8% of the vote. Trump consequently became the first Republican to win theWhite House without carryingHillsborough County sinceCalvin Coolidge in1924. Trump was also the first Republican presidential candidate to carrySt. Lucie County since1992, and the first to carryJefferson andMonroe Counties since1988; all three of these counties were last carried byGeorge H. W. Bush.
Florida voted forDonald Trump by a margin of 1.20%.[4] It was thefifth-closest state result, with onlyWisconsin,Michigan,New Hampshire andPennsylvania closer. According to theNational Election Pool, Trump got a majority of 54% from theCuban-American voters in the state—in comparison to the 71% of Clinton support by Latino voters from other origins.[5] This was the first time Florida voted for a Republican who lost the popular vote since the infamous2000 election in Florida, when the Republican candidate also won the election while losing the popular vote.
This is the closest election contested by any of Trump's three Democratic opponents in his presidential bids, as the Florida electorate has decisively swung to the right in the Trump political era. Trump won a majority of the vote in the state in2020 and won the state by double digits in2024. Relatedly, this would be the last time Trump ran for president as a resident of another state (New York) rather than of Florida.
March 9, 2016 – Kendall, Florida
| Candidate | Airtime | Polls[6] |
|---|---|---|
| Clinton | 23:29 | 51.0% |
| Sanders | 17:51 | 39.6% |
The eighth debate took place on March 9, 2016, at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time in Building 7 of the Kendall Campus ofMiami Dade College inKendall, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership betweenUnivision andThe Washington Post.[7][8] The debate was discussed during a job interview conducted in early 2015 between theDemocratic National Committee's then-Communications DirectorMo Elleithee and future Hispanic Media Director Pablo Manriquez. After starting at the DNC in April 2015, Manriquez "talked about the idea for a debate for Democratic candidates on Univision to anyone who had ears to listen."[9] The debate was officially announced on November 2, 2015.[10]
Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 1,101,414 | 64.44% | 141 | 24 | 165 |
| Bernie Sanders | 568,839 | 33.28% | 73 | 2 | 75 |
| Martin O'Malley(withdrawn) | 38,930 | 2.28% | |||
| Uncommitted | — | 0 | 6 | 6 | |
| Total | 1,709,183 | 100% | 214 | 32 | 246 |
| Source:[11][12] | |||||
| District | Delegates | Votes Clinton | Votes Sanders | Votes Qualified | Clinton delegates | Sanders delegates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 26987 | 18497 | 45484 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | 50190 | 34073 | 84263 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | 32070 | 27974 | 60044 | 2 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | 33920 | 22765 | 56685 | 2 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | 55855 | 18639 | 74494 | 4 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | 37995 | 24443 | 62438 | 3 | 2 |
| 7 | 5 | 37410 | 26795 | 64205 | 3 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | 39384 | 24376 | 63760 | 3 | 2 |
| 9 | 5 | 40609 | 19880 | 60489 | 3 | 2 |
| 10 | 5 | 38011 | 22213 | 60224 | 3 | 2 |
| 11 | 5 | 38061 | 21590 | 59651 | 3 | 2 |
| 12 | 5 | 35498 | 23172 | 58670 | 3 | 2 |
| 13 | 6 | 44121 | 29707 | 73828 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | 6 | 49146 | 23617 | 72763 | 4 | 2 |
| 15 | 5 | 32793 | 20712 | 53505 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | 6 | 43921 | 25856 | 69777 | 4 | 2 |
| 17 | 4 | 29899 | 17045 | 46944 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | 6 | 42804 | 20620 | 63424 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | 4 | 31958 | 17235 | 49193 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | 7 | 61998 | 15761 | 77759 | 6 | 1 |
| 21 | 7 | 57723 | 22100 | 79823 | 5 | 2 |
| 22 | 6 | 49602 | 22209 | 71811 | 4 | 2 |
| 23 | 6 | 44510 | 19974 | 64484 | 4 | 2 |
| 24 | 8 | 59274 | 13893 | 73167 | 6 | 2 |
| 25 | 3 | 24897 | 9287 | 34184 | 2 | 1 |
| 26 | 4 | 32069 | 14148 | 46217 | 3 | 1 |
| 27 | 4 | 30709 | 12258 | 42967 | 3 | 1 |
| Total | 140 | 1101414 | 568839 | 1670253 | 93 | 47 |
| PLEO | 28 | 1101414 | 568839 | 1670253 | 18 | 10 |
| At Large | 46 | 1101414 | 568839 | 1670253 | 30 | 16 |
| Gr. Total | 214 | 1101414 | 568839 | 1670253 | 141 | 73 |
| Total vote | 64.44% | 33.28% | 1,709,183 | |||
| Source:Florida Department of State Division of Elections | ||||||
March 10, 2016 – Coral Gables, Florida
| Candidate | Airtime | Polls[13] |
|---|---|---|
| Trump | 28:11 | 38.6% |
| Cruz | 21:42 | 21.8% |
| Rubio | 21:23 | 18.0% |
| Kasich | 18:49 | 12.0% |
The twelfth debate was the fourth and final debate to air on CNN and led into theFlorida,Illinois,North Carolina,Missouri, andOhio primaries on March 15. The candidates debated at theUniversity of Miami, moderated byJake Tapper and questioned by CNN chief political correspondentDana Bash, Salem Radio Network talk-show hostHugh Hewitt, andWashington Times contributorStephen Dinan.The Washington Times cohosted the debate.[14] The debate was originally scheduled considering the likelihood that no candidate would clinch the Republican nomination before March 15, due to the overall size of the field.[15] On the day of the debate, CNN summarized the immediate stakes: "This debate comes just five days ahead of 'Super Tuesday 3', when more than 350 delegates are decided, including winner-take-all contests in Florida and Ohio. Both Trump and Rubio are predicting [a win in] Florida. For Trump, a win here would fuel his growing momentum and further grow his delegate lead; for Rubio, losing his home state could be the death knell for his campaign."[16] This was the twelfth and final debate appearance of Rubio, who suspended his campaign on March 15.[17]
Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 1,079,870 | 45.72% | 99 | 0 | 99 |
| Marco Rubio | 638,661 | 27.04% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Cruz | 404,891 | 17.14% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich | 159,976 | 6.77% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush(withdrawn) | 43,511 | 1.84% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson(withdrawn) | 21,207 | 0.90% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul(withdrawn) | 4,450 | 0.19% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee(withdrawn) | 2,624 | 0.11% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie(withdrawn) | 2,493 | 0.11% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina(withdrawn) | 1,899 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum(withdrawn) | 1,211 | 0.05% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lindsey Graham(withdrawn) | 693 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Gilmore(withdrawn) | 319 | 0.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 2,361,805 | 100.00% | 99 | 0 | 99 |
| Source:The Green Papers | |||||
.
TheGreen Party held a primary in Florida on July 31, 2016. Early voting began on July 25.[18]
On July 31, 2016, the Green Party of Florida announced that Jill Stein had won the Florida primary viainstant-runoff voting.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | National delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | 18 | 52.9% | |
| Elijah Manley | 14 | 41.2% | |
| William Kreml | 1 | 2.94% | |
| Kent Mesplay | 1 | 2.94% | |
| Sedinam Curry | 0 | ||
| Darryl Cherney | 0 | ||
| Total | 34 | 100% |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | National delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | 19 | 55.9% | |
| Elijah Manley | 14 | 41.2% | |
| William Kreml | 1 | 2.94% | |
| Total | 34 | 100 |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | National delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | 20 | 58.8% | 15 |
| Elijah Manley | 14 | 41.2% | 10 |
| Total | 34 | 100 | 25 |
The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Florida as of Election Day.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[19] | Lean D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[20] | Tossup | November 4, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[21] | Tilt D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| NBC[23] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[24] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[25] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[26] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
| ABC[27] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
In early polling conducted in late 2015, Trump started with strong momentum and won almost every poll against Clinton by margins varying from 2 to 8 points. In March 2016, Trump's early momentum seemed to slow, as Clinton won every poll until June 2016, when Trump won a poll 45% to 44%. Most polling conducted throughout the summer was favorable to Clinton, but both candidates were neck and neck in late August and early September, with neither having a consistent lead. From mid September to October 20, Clinton won every poll but one. In the last weeks, polling was extremely close, with neither candidate taking the lead. The third to last and fourth to last poll ended in a tie, but Trump won the last poll 50% to 46%.[28] The average of the last three polls showed Trump ahead 47.3% to 46.7%, where the race was essentially tied.
| 2016 United States presidential election in Florida[29] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Presidential candidate | Popular vote | Electoral vote | ||||
| Count | Percentage | ||||||
| Republican | Donald Trump | 4,617,886 | 49.02% | 29 | |||
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | 4,504,975 | 47.82% | 0 | |||
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | 207,043 | 2.20% | 0 | |||
| Green | Jill Stein | 64,399 | 0.68% | 0 | |||
| Constitution | Darrell L. Castle | 16,475 | 0.17% | 0 | |||
| Reform | Rocky De La Fuente | 9,108 | 0.10% | 0 | |||
| Write-in | - | 153 | 0.01% | 0 | |||
| Date | November 8, 2016 | Total voters | Registered: 12,863,773 Eligible: 14,441,877 | ||||
| Turnout % | Registered: 74.48% VAP: 66.34% | Turnout votes | Valid votes: 9,420,039 Invalid votes: 160,450 | ||||
| County | Donald Trump Republican | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alachua | 46,834 | 36.00% | 75,820 | 58.28% | 7,446 | 5.72% | -28,986 | -22.28% | 130,100 |
| Baker | 10,294 | 81.02% | 2,112 | 16.62% | 299 | 2.36% | 8,182 | 64.40% | 12,705 |
| Bay | 62,194 | 70.50% | 21,797 | 24.71% | 4,231 | 4.79% | 40,397 | 45.79% | 88,222 |
| Bradford | 8,913 | 73.31% | 2,924 | 24.05% | 321 | 2.64% | 5,989 | 49.26% | 12,158 |
| Brevard | 181,848 | 57.16% | 119,679 | 37.62% | 16,614 | 5.22% | 62,169 | 19.54% | 318,141 |
| Broward | 260,951 | 31.16% | 553,320 | 66.08% | 23,117 | 2.76% | -292,369 | -34.92% | 837,388 |
| Calhoun | 4,655 | 75.96% | 1,241 | 20.25% | 232 | 3.79% | 3,414 | 55.71% | 6,128 |
| Charlotte | 60,128 | 61.96% | 33,445 | 34.41% | 3,524 | 3.63% | 26,773 | 27.55% | 97,187 |
| Citrus | 54,456 | 67.72% | 22,789 | 28.34% | 3,167 | 3.94% | 31,667 | 39.38% | 80,412 |
| Clay | 74,963 | 69.85% | 27,822 | 25.93% | 4,532 | 4.22% | 47,141 | 43.92% | 107,317 |
| Collier | 105,423 | 61.11% | 61,085 | 35.41% | 6,002 | 3.48% | 44,338 | 25.70% | 172,510 |
| Columbia | 20,368 | 70.57% | 7,601 | 26.33% | 895 | 3.10% | 12,767 | 44.24% | 28,864 |
| DeSoto | 6,778 | 62.17% | 3,781 | 34.68% | 344 | 3.15% | 2,997 | 27.49% | 10,903 |
| Dixie | 5,822 | 80.35% | 1,270 | 17.53% | 154 | 2.12% | 4,552 | 62.82% | 7,246 |
| Duval | 211,672 | 48.48% | 205,704 | 47.12% | 19,197 | 4.40% | 5,968 | 1.36% | 436,573 |
| Escambia | 88,808 | 57.60% | 57,461 | 37.27% | 7,903 | 5.13% | 31,347 | 20.33% | 154,172 |
| Flagler | 33,850 | 58.38% | 22,026 | 37.98% | 2,111 | 3.64% | 11,824 | 20.40% | 57,987 |
| Franklin | 4,125 | 68.08% | 1,744 | 28.78% | 190 | 3.14% | 2,381 | 39.30% | 6,059 |
| Gadsden | 6,728 | 30.29% | 15,020 | 67.62% | 466 | 2.09% | -8,292 | -37.33% | 22,214 |
| Gilchrist | 6,740 | 79.56% | 1,458 | 17.21% | 274 | 3.23% | 5,282 | 62.35% | 8,472 |
| Glades | 2,996 | 68.37% | 1,271 | 29.01% | 115 | 2.62% | 1,725 | 39.36% | 4,382 |
| Gulf | 5,329 | 72.69% | 1,720 | 23.46% | 282 | 3.85% | 3,609 | 49.23% | 7,331 |
| Hamilton | 3,443 | 62.70% | 1,904 | 34.67% | 144 | 2.63% | 1,539 | 28.03% | 5,491 |
| Hardee | 5,242 | 68.57% | 2,149 | 28.11% | 254 | 3.32% | 3,093 | 40.46% | 7,645 |
| Hendry | 6,195 | 55.40% | 4,615 | 41.27% | 372 | 3.33% | 1,580 | 14.13% | 11,182 |
| Hernando | 58,970 | 62.30% | 31,795 | 33.59% | 3,886 | 4.11% | 27,175 | 28.71% | 94,651 |
| Highlands | 29,565 | 64.26% | 14,937 | 32.46% | 1,509 | 3.28% | 14,628 | 31.80% | 46,011 |
| Hillsborough | 266,870 | 44.19% | 307,896 | 50.99% | 29,124 | 4.82% | -41,026 | -6.80% | 603,890 |
| Holmes | 7,483 | 87.46% | 853 | 9.97% | 220 | 2.57% | 6,630 | 77.49% | 8,556 |
| Indian River | 48,620 | 60.20% | 29,043 | 35.96% | 3,106 | 3.84% | 19,577 | 24.24% | 80,769 |
| Jackson | 14,257 | 67.38% | 6,397 | 30.23% | 505 | 2.39% | 7,860 | 37.15% | 21,159 |
| Jefferson | 3,930 | 51.11% | 3,541 | 46.05% | 218 | 2.84% | 389 | 5.06% | 7,689 |
| Lafayette | 2,809 | 82.35% | 518 | 15.19% | 84 | 2.46% | 2,291 | 67.16% | 3,411 |
| Lake | 102,188 | 59.48% | 62,838 | 36.58% | 6,773 | 3.94% | 39,350 | 22.90% | 171,799 |
| Lee | 191,551 | 58.12% | 124,908 | 37.90% | 13,095 | 3.98% | 66,643 | 20.22% | 329,554 |
| Leon | 53,821 | 34.98% | 92,068 | 59.83% | 7,992 | 5.19% | -38,247 | -24.85% | 153,881 |
| Levy | 13,775 | 70.64% | 5,101 | 26.16% | 623 | 3.20% | 8,674 | 44.48% | 19,499 |
| Liberty | 2,543 | 76.78% | 651 | 19.66% | 118 | 3.56% | 1,892 | 57.12% | 3,312 |
| Madison | 4,851 | 56.80% | 3,526 | 41.29% | 163 | 1.91% | 1,325 | 15.51% | 8,540 |
| Manatee | 101,944 | 56.40% | 71,224 | 39.40% | 7,589 | 4.20% | 30,720 | 17.00% | 180,757 |
| Marion | 107,833 | 61.30% | 62,041 | 35.27% | 6,026 | 3.43% | 45,792 | 26.03% | 175,900 |
| Martin | 53,204 | 61.41% | 30,185 | 34.84% | 3,244 | 3.75% | 23,019 | 26.57% | 86,633 |
| Miami-Dade | 333,999 | 33.83% | 624,146 | 63.22% | 29,046 | 2.95% | -290,147 | -29.39% | 987,191 |
| Monroe | 21,904 | 50.97% | 18,971 | 44.14% | 2,102 | 4.89% | 2,933 | 6.83% | 42,977 |
| Nassau | 34,266 | 72.92% | 10,869 | 23.13% | 1,857 | 3.95% | 23,397 | 49.79% | 46,992 |
| Okaloosa | 71,893 | 70.42% | 23,780 | 23.29% | 6,423 | 6.29% | 48,113 | 47.13% | 102,096 |
| Okeechobee | 9,356 | 67.99% | 3,959 | 28.77% | 446 | 3.24% | 5,397 | 39.22% | 13,761 |
| Orange | 195,216 | 35.37% | 329,894 | 59.77% | 26,792 | 4.86% | -134,678 | -24.40% | 511,902 |
| Osceola | 50,301 | 35.56% | 85,458 | 60.41% | 5,709 | 4.03% | -35,157 | -24.85% | 141,468 |
| Palm Beach | 272,402 | 40.89% | 374,673 | 56.24% | 19,137 | 2.87% | -102,271 | -15.35% | 666,212 |
| Pasco | 142,101 | 58.41% | 90,142 | 37.06% | 11,022 | 4.53% | 51,959 | 21.35% | 243,265 |
| Pinellas | 239,201 | 48.08% | 233,701 | 46.98% | 24,583 | 4.94% | 5,500 | 1.10% | 497,485 |
| Polk | 157,430 | 54.86% | 117,433 | 40.92% | 12,106 | 4.22% | 39,997 | 13.94% | 286,969 |
| Putnam | 22,138 | 66.48% | 10,094 | 30.31% | 1,069 | 3.21% | 12,044 | 36.17% | 33,301 |
| St. Johns | 88,684 | 64.34% | 43,099 | 31.27% | 6,063 | 4.39% | 45,585 | 33.07% | 137,846 |
| St. Lucie | 70,289 | 49.50% | 66,881 | 47.10% | 4,823 | 3.40% | 3,408 | 2.40% | 141,993 |
| Santa Rosa | 65,339 | 73.68% | 18,464 | 20.82% | 4,881 | 5.50% | 46,875 | 52.86% | 88,684 |
| Sarasota | 124,438 | 53.79% | 97,870 | 42.30% | 9,045 | 3.91% | 26,568 | 11.49% | 231,353 |
| Seminole | 109,443 | 48.10% | 105,914 | 46.55% | 12,169 | 5.35% | 3,529 | 1.55% | 227,526 |
| Sumter | 52,730 | 68.27% | 22,638 | 29.31% | 1,870 | 2.42% | 30,092 | 38.96% | 77,238 |
| Suwannee | 14,287 | 76.05% | 3,964 | 21.10% | 536 | 2.85% | 10,323 | 54.95% | 18,787 |
| Taylor | 6,930 | 74.13% | 2,152 | 23.02% | 266 | 2.85% | 4,778 | 51.11% | 9,348 |
| Union | 4,568 | 79.83% | 1,014 | 17.72% | 140 | 2.45% | 3,554 | 62.11% | 5,722 |
| Volusia | 143,007 | 54.32% | 109,091 | 41.44% | 11,180 | 4.24% | 33,916 | 12.88% | 263,278 |
| Wakulla | 10,512 | 68.07% | 4,348 | 28.15% | 584 | 3.78% | 6,164 | 39.92% | 15,444 |
| Walton | 25,756 | 75.98% | 6,876 | 20.28% | 1,266 | 3.74% | 18,880 | 55.70% | 33,898 |
| Washington | 8,637 | 77.04% | 2,264 | 20.19% | 310 | 2.77% | 6,373 | 56.85% | 11,211 |
| Totals | 4,617,886 | 48.60% | 4,504,975 | 47.41% | 379,886 | 3.99% | 112,911 | 1.19% | 9,502,747 |
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic
|
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Trump won 14 of 27 congressional districts, while Clinton won 13, including two held by Republicans.[30]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 68% | 28% | Jeff Miller |
| Matt Gaetz | |||
| 2nd | 66% | 31% | Gwen Graham |
| Neal Dunn | |||
| 3rd | 56% | 40% | Ted Yoho |
| 4th | 62% | 34% | Ander Crenshaw |
| John Rutherford | |||
| 5th | 36% | 61% | Corrine Brown |
| Al Lawson | |||
| 6th | 57% | 40% | Ron DeSantis |
| 7th | 44% | 51% | John Mica |
| Stephanie Murphy | |||
| 8th | 58% | 38% | Bill Posey |
| 9th | 42% | 55% | Alan Grayson |
| Darren Soto | |||
| 10th | 35% | 62% | Daniel Webster |
| Val Demings | |||
| 11th | 65% | 33% | Rich Nugent |
| Daniel Webster | |||
| 12th | 57% | 39% | Gus Bilirakis |
| 13th | 46% | 50% | David Jolly |
| Charlie Crist | |||
| 14th | 39% | 57% | Kathy Castor |
| 15th | 53% | 43% | Dennis Ross |
| 16th | 54% | 43% | Vern Buchanan |
| 17th | 62% | 35% | Tom Rooney |
| 18th | 53% | 44% | Patrick Murphy |
| Brian Mast | |||
| 19th | 60% | 38% | Curt Clawson |
| Francis Rooney | |||
| 20th | 18% | 80% | Alcee Hastings |
| 21st | 39% | 59% | Lois Frankel |
| 22nd | 41% | 57% | Ted Deutch |
| 23rd | 36% | 62% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
| 24th | 16% | 81% | Frederica Wilson |
| 25th | 50% | 48% | Mario Díaz-Balart |
| 26th | 41% | 57% | Carlos Curbelo |
| 27th | 39% | 59% | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
Despite losing the state, Clinton's 63.22% vote share inmajority-HispanicMiami-Dade County remains the highest of any Democratic nominee since1964. Clinton still lost the state despite outperforming Obama in Miami-Dade. The state's most populous county, Miami-Dade swung rightward over Trump's three elections, and by2024 Trump outright won a majority of the vote in the county.
Clinton's gains in Miami-Dade were insufficient to win Florida, as Trump gained in most of the rest of the state. The state swung about 2% rightward from 2012, with Clinton’s gains among Hispanics and college-educated whites not enough to overcome Trump’s gains among non-college whites. Winning Florida alone would not have been sufficient for Clinton to win the Electoral College, but it would have been had Clinton also won at least oneRust Belt state (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin).
Trump flippedJefferson,Pinellas,St. Lucie, andMonroe counties. Except for Pinellas, Trump never lost any of these counties in any of his three runs. Clinton gained in the state's most educated counties (see the map), includingLeon,Alachua (home to theUniversity of Florida),St. Johns County, andSeminole County.
Clinton did not perform well enough in the state's most populous counties, particularlyBroward andPalm Beach. Broward stayed static, with Clinton maintaining Obama’s 35% margin. Palm Beach outright swung rightward in 2016, and by 2024 Trump lost Palm Beach by less than 1%.[31]
Florida may have already been shifting rightward as early as 2016. Democrats have not won a single federal statewide election in Florida since2012. In the concurrent2016 U.S. Senate election in Florida, incumbent RepublicanMarco Rubio won by over 7%.[32]Texas, another highly populous Southern state with a large Hispanic population, did swing leftward in 2016 unlike Florida.
The only statewide race Democrats have won since 2012 was the2018 Florida Commissioner of Agriculture election, while losing the2018 U.S. Senate election in Florida by 0.12%. In2020, DemocratJoe Biden lost the state by 3.4%, even as he won 51% of the national popular vote. Trump became the first Republican to win Florida despite losing the presidential election since 1992.
As of 2024, this was the last presidential election in which Florida voted to the left of neighboring Georgia. In 2016, Georgia swung leftward by 2.7% despite not being seriously contested, while Florida swung rightward by 2%.
Georgia is a more highly-educated state than Florida, as well as more racially polarized. Its white voters without college degrees were already extremely Republican, while its white voters with college degrees got much bluer. Its Black voters also did not swing to Trump over Trump’s three runs.[31]
Florida had voted to the left of Georgia from 1996 to 2016. In 2020, Georgia voted Democratic while Florida voted Republican, for the first time since1992. By 2024, Florida voted for Trump by 13%, while Georgia only narrowly voted for Trump by 2%.
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