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2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut

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Main article:2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut

← 2012
November 8, 2016
2020 →
Turnout76.94%Increase
 
NomineeHillary ClintonDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateNew YorkNew York
Running mateTim KaineMike Pence
Electoral vote70
Popular vote897,572673,215
Percentage54.57%40.93%

County results
Municipality results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Clinton

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Connecticut
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Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, businessmanDonald Trump, and running mateIndiana GovernorMike Pence againstDemocratic Party nominee, formerSecretary of StateHillary Clinton, and her running mate VirginiaSenatorTim Kaine. Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Clinton won the state by 13.64%, a smaller margin of victory than outgoingPresidentBarack Obama's 17.33% in2012.[2] Clinton carried six of the state's eight counties; however, Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to winWindham County sinceGeorge H. W. Bush in1988. This is the first election since1940 in which Connecticut did not vote the same asMichigan, something that would be seen again in2024.

Trump's strongest county in the state was ruralLitchfield County, while Clinton's biggest win was in adjacent, more urbanHartford County.[3] Areas that swung in Clinton's favor were mainly concentrated in suburbanFairfield County, in towns likeGreenwich,Darien,New Canaan, andWestport.[4][3] This area is home to manyNew York City commuters. Other Democratic swings happened in suburbs outsideHartford, such asAvon,Granby,East Granby, andGlastonbury, as well as outsideNew Haven, in towns likeGuilford,Madison, andWoodbridge.[4][3] This was the first time since1888 that Darien and the first time since1912 thatEaston voted Democratic, largely due to opposition to the populist Trump among historically Republican affluent and educated voters. By contrast, areas that swung hard for Trump were mainly located inWindham County and northernNew London County, in towns likeKillingly,Sterling,Plainfield, andVoluntown.[5] This mirrored a national trend of Trump gaining White working-class support.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2016 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary

Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[6]

Opinion polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries § Connecticut

Results

[edit]
See also:Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
e • d 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Connecticut
– Summary of results –
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton170,04551.80%281543
Bernie Sanders152,37946.42%27027
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente9600.29%000
Uncommitted4,8711.48%011
Total328,255100%551671
Source:[7][8]

Republican primary

[edit]
Republican primary results by county(left) and municipality(right).
  Donald Trump
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  John Kasich
  •   40–50%

Four candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]

Opinion polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries § Connecticut

Results

[edit]
See also:Results of the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
Connecticut Republican primary, April 26, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump123,52357.86%28028
John Kasich60,52228.35%000
Ted Cruz24,98711.70%000
Uncommitted2,7281.28%000
Ben Carson(withdrawn)1,7330.81%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:213,493100.00%28028
Source:The Green Papers


General election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Connecticut

Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. An average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton leading 49% to 38%, and the final poll showed Clinton leading Trump 50% to 35%.[9]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times[10]Safe DNovember 6, 2016
CNN[11]Safe DNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[12]Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[13]Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[14]Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15]Safe DNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[16]Lean DNovember 8, 2016
Fox News[17]Safe DNovember 7, 2016

Results

[edit]
2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticHillary Clinton897,57254.57%
RepublicanDonald Trump673,21540.93%
LibertarianGary Johnson48,6762.96%
GreenJill Stein22,8411.39%
IndependentEvan McMullin (write-in)2,1080.13%
Write-in3610.02%
ConstitutionDarrell Castle (write-in)1470.01%
Total votes1,644,920100.00%

By county

[edit]
CountyHillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Fairfield243,85257.89%160,07738.00%11,6912.78%4,8661.16%7230.18%83,77519.89%421,209
Hartford240,40359.09%148,17336.42%11,9972.95%5,6801.40%6110.15%92,23022.67%406,864
Litchfield39,77540.82%53,05154.44%3,0043.08%1,4411.48%1710.17%-13,276-13.62%97,442
Middlesex45,35751.18%38,86743.86%2,7603.11%1,4971.69%1430.16%6,4907.32%88,624
New Haven205,60954.25%159,04841.96%9,1192.41%4,7571.26%4730.13%46,56112.29%379,006
New London62,27850.42%54,05843.76%4,7443.84%2,2201.80%2280.19%8,2206.66%123,528
Tolland38,50649.73%34,19444.16%3,1814.11%1,3701.77%1730.23%4,3125.57%77,424
Windham21,79242.88%25,74750.66%2,1804.29%1,0101.99%940.18%-3,955-7.78%50,823
Total897,57254.57%673,21540.93%48,6762.96%22,8411.39%2,6160.16%224,35713.64%1,644,920
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Clinton won all five congressional districts.[19]

DistrictClintonTrumpRepresentative
1st59%36%John B. Larson
2nd49%46%Joe Courtney
3rd56%40%Rosa DeLauro
4th60%37%Jim Himes
5th50%46%Elizabeth Esty

Turnout

[edit]

According to Connecticut's Secretary of State Elections Night Reporting website, voter turnout was 76.94% with 1,675,934 voters checked reported out of 2,178,169 Registered Voters Reported.[20]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. RetrievedNovember 23, 2020.
  2. ^"Connecticut Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". RetrievedNovember 10, 2016.
  3. ^abc"Statement of Vote. General election"(PDF). RetrievedMarch 11, 2023.
  4. ^ab"Statement of Vote. General election. November 6, 2012"(PDF). RetrievedMarch 11, 2023.
  5. ^Statement of Vote
  6. ^ab"Secretary Merrill Selects Presidential Primary Ballot Order"(PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. March 22, 2016. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on August 6, 2016. RetrievedMay 21, 2016.
  7. ^The Green Papers
  8. ^Connecticut Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
  9. ^"RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Connecticut: Trump vs. Clinton".
  10. ^"Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours".Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  11. ^Chalian, David (November 4, 2016)."Road to 270: CNN's new election map".CNN. RetrievedMarch 3, 2019.
  12. ^"2016 Electoral Scorecard".The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived fromthe original on March 1, 2019. RetrievedMarch 3, 2019.
  13. ^"2016 Electoral Map Prediction".Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. RetrievedMarch 3, 2019.
  14. ^"Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedAugust 16, 2021.
  15. ^Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016)."2016 President".University of Virginia Center for Politics. RetrievedMarch 3, 2019.
  16. ^"2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  17. ^"Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge".Fox News. November 7, 2016. RetrievedNovember 13, 2016.
  18. ^Bump, Philip."The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election".Washington Post.ISSN 0190-8286. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2020.
  19. ^"Statement of Vote"(PDF).Secretary of the State of Connecticut.Archived(PDF) from the original on March 9, 2025. RetrievedMay 19, 2025.
  20. ^Connecticut Secretary of State Elections Last edited 2020-07-9 Retrieved 2020-07-09Archived 2020-11-08 at theWayback Machine

External links

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