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2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina

← 2010
November 8, 2016
2022 →
 
NomineeRichard BurrDeborah Ross
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote2,395,3762,128,165
Percentage51.06%45.37%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Burr:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Ross:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Richard Burr
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Richard Burr
Republican

Elections in North Carolina
U.S./Confederate President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Secretary of State elections
State Treasurer elections
Superintendent of Public Instruction elections
Attorney General elections
Commissioner of Insurance elections
Auditor elections
Council of State elections

The2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the State ofNorth Carolina, concurrently with the2016 U.S. presidential election, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states, andelections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate andlocal elections. Primary elections were held March 15.[1]

IncumbentRepublican SenatorRichard Burr won re-election to a third term in office against Democratic former state representativeDeborah Ross and LibertarianSean Haugh.

Burr said that this election would be his last.[2]

Republican primary

[edit]

There had been speculation that Burr might retire,[3] but he said in September 2014 that he was "planning" on running[4] and reaffirmed this in January 2015.[5] If Burr had retired, the seat was expected to draw significant interest, with potential Republican candidates including U.S. representativesGeorge Holding,Mark Meadows, andRobert Pittenger, Labor CommissionerCherie Berry, Lieutenant GovernorDan Forest, Agriculture CommissionerSteve Troxler, State SenatorPhil Berger, and former Ambassador to DenmarkJames P. Cain.[3][4]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr
Greg
Brannon
Paul
Wright
Larry
Holmquist
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[14]March 11–13, 2016749±3.6%48%20%4%3%24%
High Point University[15]March 9–10, 2016734±2.5%56%20%5%3%17%
SurveyUSA[16]March 4–7, 2016688±3.8%45%17%7%4%27%
SurveyUSA[17]February 14–16, 2016437±2.8%45%14%6%6%30%
Public Policy Polling[18]February 14–16, 2016597±4.0%56%13%4%3%24%
High Point University[19]January 30 – February 4, 2016477±4.5%46%10%5%2%37%
Public Policy Polling[20]January 18–19, 2016433±3.2%55%10%6%5%24%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr
Mark
Meadows
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]July 2–6, 2015288± 5.8%62%9%28%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRichard Burr (incumbent)622,07461.41%
RepublicanGreg Brannon255,03025.17%
RepublicanPaul Wright85,9448.48%
RepublicanLarry Holmquist50,0104.94%
Total votes1,013,058100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kevin
Griffin
Ernest
Reeves
Chris
Rey
Deborah
Ross
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[18]March 11–13, 2016746±3.6%4%8%8%40%41%
High Point University[15]March 9–10, 2016669±2.5%9%5%7%52%27%
SurveyUSA[16]March 4–7, 2016687±3.8%7%6%9%34%44%
SurveyUSA[17]February 14–16, 2016449±2.8%7%3%5%30%55%
Public Policy Polling[18]February 14–16, 2016575±4.1%10%2%10%22%55%
High Point University[19]January 30 – February 4, 2016478±4.5%6%4%5%19%66%
Public Policy Polling[20]January 18–19, 2016461±3.2%14%3%10%19%55%
Public Policy Polling[52]December 5–7, 2015555±2.8%15%-5%41%39%
Public Policy Polling[53]October 23–25, 2015421±4.8%16%-6%33%45%

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[54]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticDeborah Ross614,41462.32%
DemocraticChris Rey162,86916.52%
DemocraticKevin Griffin115,61811.73%
DemocraticErnest Reeves93,0059.43%
Total votes985,906100.00%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
DatesLocationBurrRossLink
October 13, 2016Chapel Hill,North CarolinaParticipantParticipant[56]

Endorsements

[edit]
Richard Burr

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Deborah Ross

Presidents

Vice presidents

U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials

U.S. senators

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[86]TossupNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[87]Lean RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[88]TossupNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos[89]TossupNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[90]TossupNovember 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Deborah
Ross (D)
Sean
Haugh (L)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey[91]November 1–7, 20163,126±4.6%43%47%6%4%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College[92]November 4–6, 2016800±3.5%46%45%9%
Quinnipiac University[93]November 3–6, 2016870±3.3%47%47%1%4%
SurveyMonkey[94]October 31 – November 6, 20162,865±4.6%44%47%6%3%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[95]November 1–4, 20161,250±2.8%47%48%5%
SurveyMonkey[96]October 28 – November 3, 20162,292±4.6%44%47%6%3%
SurveyMonkey[97]October 27 – November 2, 20161,886±4.6%44%47%6%3%
Public Policy Polling[98]October 31 – November 1, 20161,169±2.9%48%45%7%
Quinnipiac University[99]October 27 – November 1, 2016602±4.0%45%49%1%5%
SurveyMonkey[100]October 26 – November 1, 20161,617±4.6%43%47%6%4%
SurveyUSA[101]October 28–31, 2016659±3.9%49%43%2%6%
SurveyMonkey[102]October 25–31, 20161,574±4.6%43%47%7%3%
CBS News/YouGov[103]October 26–28, 2016992±4.1%44%44%1%10%
Emerson College[104]October 26–27, 2016650±3.8%48%44%3%6%
Elon University Poll[105]October 23–27, 2016710±3.7%44%40%3%11%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[106]October 25–26, 20161,273±2.8%45%48%7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[107]October 25–26, 2016780 LV±3.5%48%48%2%3%
1,018 RV±3.1%48%46%2%4%
Quinnipiac University[108]October 20–26, 2016702±3.7%48%47%5%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College[109]October 20–23, 2016792±3.5%46%47%7%
Monmouth University[110]October 20–23, 2016402±4.9%49%43%2%5%
Public Policy Polling[111]October 21–22, 2016875±3.3%42%41%6%11%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[112]October 17–18, 2016924±3.0%46%44%10%
SurveyUSA[113]October 14–18, 2016651±3.9%45%43%6%6%
Civitas Institute (R)[114]October 14–17, 2016600±4.0%44%37%4%11%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[115]October 8–16, 20161,191±0.5%42%48%7%3%
CNN/ORC[116]October 10–15, 2016788 LV±3.5%48%47%2%
929 RV±3.0%46%49%1%2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[117]October 10–12, 2016743 LV±3.6%46%46%2%6%
1,025 RV±3.1%45%46%2%7%
Emerson College[118]October 10–12, 2016600±3.9%45%43%3%8%
Suffolk University[119]October 10–12, 2016500±4.4%40%36%6%16%
NCSU Pack Poll[120]October 3–6, 2016895±3.0%39%49%12%0%
High Point University[121]October 1–6, 2016479±4.5%47%42%6%4%
SurveyUSA[122]September 29 – October 3, 2016656±3.9%46%44%3%7%
Bloomberg/Selzer[123]September 29 – October 3, 2016805±3.5%44%46%11%
Quinnipiac University[124]September 27 – October 2, 2016507±4.4%46%46%7%
Elon University Poll[125]September 27–30, 2016660±3.8%43%44%4%8%
Public Policy Polling[126]September 27–28, 2016861±3.3%41%39%6%14%
46%42%12%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[127]September 23, 2016694±3.7%39%48%13%
Meredith College[128]September 18–22, 2016487±4.4%35%38%1%7%19%
High Point University[129]September 17–22, 2016404±4.9%45%43%4%6%
FOX News[130]September 18–20, 2016734 LV±3.5%43%37%6%12%
800 RV42%36%7%13%
Public Policy Polling[131]September 18–20, 20161,024±3.1%41%41%4%15%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College[132]September 16–19, 2016782±3.6%42%46%11%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[133]September 10–19, 2016400±4.0%46%30%3%21%
Elon University Poll[134]September 12–16, 2016644±3.9%43%44%4%9%
Civitas Institute (R)[135]September 11–12, 2016600±4.0%44%39%2%15%
Suffolk University[136]September 5–7, 2016500±4.4%41%37%4%16%
Quinnipiac University[137]August 29 – September 7, 2016751±3.6%49%43%8%
CBS News/YouGov[138]August 30 – September 2, 20161,088±4.0%40%41%2%17%
Emerson College[139]August 27–29, 2016800±3.4%45%41%5%14%
Public Policy Polling[140]August 26–27, 20161,177±3.0%46%43%12%
Monmouth University[141]August 20–23, 2016401±4.9%45%43%4%8%
CNN/ORC[142]August 18–23, 2016803±3.5%50%45%5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[143]August 4–10, 2016921±3.2%44%46%1%9%
Public Policy Polling[144]August 5–7, 2016830±3.4%41%37%5%17%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[145]July 5–11, 2016907±3.3%48%41%1%10%
Public Policy Polling[146]June 20–21, 2016947±3.2%40%37%5%18%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[147]June 11–20, 2016300±5.7%36%38%26%
Public Policy Polling[148]May 20–22, 2016928±3.2%39%36%8%18%
Civitas Institute (R)[149]April 23–25, 2016600±4.0%39%38%7%16%
Public Policy Polling[150]April 22–24, 2016960±3.2%40%36%7%17%
Elon University Poll[151]April 10–15, 2016621±3.9%37%33%30%
Public Policy Polling[152]March 18–20, 2016843±3.4%40%35%7%18%
High Point University[15]March 9–10, 20161,576±2.5%48%41%11%
SurveyUSA[17]February 14–16, 20161,250±2.8%45%37%18%
Public Policy Polling[18]February 14–16, 20161,291±2.7%43%37%20%
Public Policy Polling[20]January 18–19, 2016948±3.2%43%33%23%
Public Policy Polling[52]December 5–7, 20151,214±2.8%46%35%19%
Public Policy Polling[53]October 23–25, 2015893±3.3%43%39%18%
Public Policy Polling[153]September 24–27, 20151,268±2.8%45%34%21%
Public Policy Polling[154]August 12–16, 2015957±3.2%43%36%21%
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Hypothetical polling

With Burr

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Kevin
Griffin (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA[17]February 14–16, 20161,250±2.8%45%35%20%
Public Policy Polling[18]February 14–16, 20161,291±2.7%43%36%21%
Public Policy Polling[20]January 18–19, 2016948±3.2%42%35%24%
Public Policy Polling[52]December 5–7, 20151,214± 2.8%46%35%19%
Public Policy Polling[53]October 23–25, 2015893± 3.3%44%35%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Chris
Rey (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA[17]February 14–16, 20161,250±2.8%46%34%20%
Public Policy Polling[18]February 14–16, 20161,291±2.7%43%36%21%
Public Policy Polling[20]January 18–19, 2016948±3.2%44%32%24%
Public Policy Polling[52]December 5–7, 20151,214± 2.8%47%33%21%
Public Policy Polling[53]October 23–25, 2015893± 3.3%45%34%21%
Public Policy Polling[153]September 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%46%34%20%
Public Policy Polling[154]August 12–16, 2015957± 3.2%44%37%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Dan
Blue (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%45%35%19%
Public Policy Polling[155]May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%48%34%18%
Public Policy Polling[156]April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%47%36%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Undecided
Meeting Street Research[157]January 21–22, 2015500± 4.38%44%41%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Janet
Cowell (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[156]April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%46%35%19%
Public Policy Polling[158]February 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%44%38%18%
Public Policy Polling[159]January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%45%38%18%
Public Policy Polling[160]December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%44%38%17%
Public Policy Polling[161]August 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%44%37%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Anthony
Foxx (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[158]February 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%45%36%20%
Public Policy Polling[159]January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%47%36%17%
Public Policy Polling[160]December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%44%38%18%
Public Policy Polling[161]August 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%45%35%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Kay
Hagan (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[155]May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%49%40%11%
Elon University Poll[162]April 20–24, 2015677± 3.77%44%43%4%8%
Public Policy Polling[156]April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%50%38%12%
Public Policy Polling[158]February 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%50%43%7%
Meeting Street Research[157]January 21–22, 2015500± 4.38%49%45%6%
Public Policy Polling[159]January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%48%42%10%
Public Policy Polling[160]December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%46%43%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Duane
Hall (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[153]September 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%45%35%19%
Public Policy Polling[154]Aug 12–16, 2015957± 3.2%44%36%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Jeff
Jackson (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[155]May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%48%30%22%
Public Policy Polling[156]April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%46%30%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Allen
Joines (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[158]February 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%45%33%23%
Public Policy Polling[161]August 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%45%32%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Grier
Martin (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%47%33%20%
Public Policy Polling[155]May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%46%31%23%
Public Policy Polling[156]April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%46%32%23%
Public Policy Polling[161]August 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%45%33%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Mike
McIntyre (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%44%35%21%
Public Policy Polling[155]May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%43%34%22%
Public Policy Polling[159]January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%44%37%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Brad
Miller (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%46%36%18%
Public Policy Polling[156]April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%45%34%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Tom
Ross (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[159]January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%44%35%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Heath
Shuler (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[153]September 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%42%37%20%
Public Policy Polling[154]Aug 12–16, 2015957± 3.2%42%35%22%
Public Policy Polling[21]July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%44%36%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Burr (R)
Beth
Wood (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[21]July 2–6, 2015529± 4.1%45%34%21%

With Berger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger (R)
Janet
Cowell (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[160]December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%41%38%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger (R)
Anthony
Foxx (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[160]December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%40%37%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Phil
Berger (R)
Kay
Hagan (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[160]December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%45%43%13%

Results

[edit]
2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina[163]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanRichard Burr (incumbent)2,395,37651.06%−3.75%
DemocraticDeborah Ross2,128,16545.37%+2.32%
LibertarianSean Haugh167,5923.57%+1.48%
Total votes4,691,133100.00%N/A
Republicanhold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^WRAL: North Carolina primaries officially on March 15 with signingArchived October 2, 2015, at theWayback Machine
  2. ^Campbell, Colin (July 20, 2016)."US Sen. Richard Burr says 2016 will be his last run for elected office".The Charlotte Observer.Archived from the original on November 11, 2016. RetrievedNovember 10, 2016.
  3. ^abcdeCahn, Emily (December 11, 2013)."Opportunities Now and Later in North Carolina".Roll Call. RetrievedDecember 11, 2013.
  4. ^abcd"Rumors Aside, Burr Says He'll Run Again".National Journal. September 15, 2014. Archived fromthe original on September 19, 2014. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2014.
  5. ^"Sen. Burr confirms he will run in 2016".WNCN. January 6, 2015. Archived fromthe original on January 8, 2015. RetrievedJanuary 8, 2015.
  6. ^Brannon, Greg (December 21, 2015)."WATCH as I officially file as a Republican candidate for the United States Senate!".Facebook. RetrievedDecember 21, 2015.
  7. ^Campbell, Colin (December 21, 2015)."Republican Greg Brannon challenges Richard Burr in second Senate bid".The News & Observer. RetrievedDecember 21, 2015.
  8. ^Johnson, Paul B. (September 23, 2015)."Triad Republican to challenge Burr in Senate primary".High Point Enterprise. RetrievedOctober 13, 2015.[permanent dead link]
  9. ^Krueger, Sarah (September 24, 2015)."Larry Holmquist enters Senate race, challenging Richard Burr".WGHP. RetrievedOctober 13, 2015.
  10. ^"Former judge Wright running for Burr's Senate seat".Asheville Citizen-Times. September 11, 2015. RetrievedSeptember 12, 2015.
  11. ^Clifton, Brant (June 27, 2015)."#NCSEN: Draft Mark Meadows for, um, SENATE ????".The Daily Haymaker. RetrievedJune 28, 2015.
  12. ^Wynne, John (June 26, 2015)."Best Week in NC Politics: Rep. Mark Meadows".PoliticsNC. RetrievedJune 28, 2015.
  13. ^Barrett, Mark (December 1, 2015)."Mark Meadows files for third term".Asheville Citizen-Times. RetrievedDecember 3, 2015.
  14. ^Public Policy Polling
  15. ^abcHigh Point University
  16. ^abSurveyUSA
  17. ^abcdeSurveyUSA
  18. ^abcdefPublic Policy Polling
  19. ^abHigh Point University
  20. ^abcdePublic Policy Polling
  21. ^abcdefgPublic Policy Polling
  22. ^NC State Board of Elections
  23. ^Leslie, Laura (October 15, 2015)."Durham businessman joining Dem field in US Senate race".WRAL-TV. RetrievedOctober 29, 2015.
  24. ^"Candidate Listing"(PDF).North Carolina State Board of Elections (FTP). RetrievedDecember 21, 2015.[dead ftp link](To view documents seeHelp:FTP)
  25. ^Woolverton, Paul (September 21, 2015)."Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey announces run for US Senate".Fayetteville Observer. RetrievedSeptember 21, 2015.
  26. ^Burns, Matthew (October 14, 2015)."Ex-Wake lawmaker Ross enters US Senate race".WRAL-TV. RetrievedOctober 14, 2015.
  27. ^abcdefghiCheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014)."16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate".Politico. Archived fromthe original on December 29, 2014. RetrievedDecember 29, 2014.
  28. ^abcdCahn, Emily (March 13, 2015)."Democrats Prep North Carolina Contingency Plan".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on March 15, 2015. RetrievedMarch 13, 2015.
  29. ^abcdCurliss, J. Andrew (March 29, 2015)."Sunday Dome: US Sen. Burr plans fight against... (insert name here)".The News & Observer. RetrievedJune 18, 2015.
  30. ^"Attorney General Announces Candidacy For Governor".Charlotte Observer. November 6, 2014. Archived fromthe original on November 8, 2014. RetrievedNovember 7, 2014.
  31. ^Mark Binke (October 13, 2015)."NC Treasurer Cowell won't seek re-election".WRAL-TV. RetrievedOctober 13, 2015.
  32. ^Batts, Mat (December 17, 2015)."Group wants Cunningham to run in 8th District for Democrats".The Dispatch. Archived fromthe original on December 22, 2015. RetrievedDecember 18, 2015.
  33. ^Pathé, Simone (August 28, 2015)."DSCC Talking to Potential Burr Challengers in North Carolina".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on August 31, 2015. RetrievedAugust 31, 2015.
  34. ^Wynne, John (August 31, 2015)."A New Name".PoliticsNC. RetrievedAugust 31, 2015.
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