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 County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsGrassley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Judge: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of Iowa, concurrently with the2016 U.S. presidential election, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states andelections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate andlocal elections.
IncumbentRepublican SenatorChuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016,[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former lieutenant governorPatty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformedDonald Trump, who also won the state that year; nevertheless, this represented Grassley's worst re-election performance at the time since his first race in 1980, until 6 years later whenMichael Franken would not only make Grassley fall below 60% of the vote, but also cut his winning percentage in half and flip several counties (namely Black Hawk, Linn, Story and Polk) that Grassley carried in this election.[2]
RepublicanChuck Grassley was first elected to the Senatein 1980, defeating Democratic incumbentJohn Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recentlyin 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.
Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,[3] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."[4]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chuck Grassley (Incumbent) | 90,089 | 98.36% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 1,500 | 1.64% | |
| Total votes | 91,589 | 100.00% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Patty Judge | Rob Hogg | Bob Krause | Tom Fiegen | None/Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines Register[24] | May 30 – June 2, 2016 | 542 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 25% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 15% |
| KBUR-AM 1490[25] | May 31 – June 1, 2016 | 1,361 | ± 3.0% | 37% | 31% | 3% | 6% | – | 23% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Judge | 46,322 | 47.62% | |
| Democratic | Rob Hogg | 37,801 | 38.86% | |
| Democratic | Tom Fiegen | 6,573 | 6.76% | |
| Democratic | Bob Krause | 6,425 | 6.60% | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 154 | 0.16% | |
| Total votes | 97,275 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Likely R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[28] | Safe R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[29] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[30] | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Dates | Location | Grassley | Judge | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 19, 2016 | Sioux City,Iowa | Participant | Participant | [31] |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chuck Grassley (R) | Patty Judge (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[32] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,781 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[33] | Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 1,598 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 39% | — | 5% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer[34] | November 1–4, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 33% | 2% | 4% |
| Emerson College[35] | November 1–3, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 60% | 32% | 4% | 5% |
| Loras College[36] | November 1–3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 53% | 37% | 1% | 8% |
| SurveyMonkey[37] | Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 1,469 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[38] | Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 | 1,226 | ± 4.6% | 57% | 40% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[39] | Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 | 867 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[40] | October 25–31, 2016 | 984 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[41] | October 20–26, 2016 | 791 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 38% | — | 5% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[42] | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,135 | ± 0.5% | 56% | 40% | — | 5% |
| Google Consumer Surveys[43] | October 12–14, 2016 | 523 | ± 4.2% | 56% | 41% | — | 3% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid[44] | October 7–10, 2016 | 917 | ± 3.0% | 51% | 39% | — | 11% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer[45] | October 3–6, 2016 | 642 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 36% | 2% | 6% |
| Loras College[46] | September 20–22, 2016 | 491 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 37% | — | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University[47] | September 13–21, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 43% | — | 2% |
| Monmouth University[48] | September 12–14, 2016 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 56% | 39% | 2% | 3% |
| RABA Research[49] | September 6–8, 2016 | 1,054 | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | — | 13% |
| Emerson College[50] | Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[51] | August 30–31, 2016 | 827 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
| CBS News/YouGov[52] | August 17–19, 2016 | 987 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 38% | 1% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac University[53] | August 9–16, 2016 | 846 | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | — | 6% |
| Suffolk University[54] | August 8–10, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[55] | August 3–7, 2016 | 899 | ± 3.3% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov[56] | July 13–15, 2016 | 998 | ± 4.8% | 45% | 37% | 2% | 16% |
| Monmouth University[57] | July 8–11, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 52% | 42% | — | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[58] | July 5–10, 2016 | 822 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
| Loras College[59] | June 24–28, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[60] | June 22–23, 2016 | 897 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 39% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | June 9–13, 2016 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
with Rob Hogg
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chuck Grassley (R) | Rob Hogg (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[62] | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 52% | 28% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 52% | 28% | 20% |
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with Tom Fiegen
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chuck Grassley (R) | Tom Fiegen (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[62] | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 54% | 29% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 53% | 30% | 17% |
with Bob Krause
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chuck Grassley (R) | Bob Krause (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[62] | January 8–10, 2016 | 1,901 | ± 2.3% | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | December 10–13, 2015 | 1,426 | ± 2.6% | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[64] | October 30–November 1, 2015 | 1,668 | ± 2.4% | 52% | 28% | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | August 7–9, 2015 | 1,500 | ± 2.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
with Tom Vilsack
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chuck Grassley (R) | Tom Vilsack (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[66] | September 25–28, 2014 | 1,192 | ± 2.8% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling[67] | May 15–19, 2014 | 914 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[68] | February 20–23, 2014 | 869 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Chuck Grassley (incumbent) | 926,007 | 60.09% | −4.26% | |
| Democratic | Patty Judge | 549,460 | 35.66% | +2.36% | |
| Libertarian | Charles Aldrich | 41,794 | 2.71% | +0.44% | |
| Independent | Jim Hennager | 17,649 | 1.15% | N/A | |
| Independent | Michael Luick-Thrams | 4,441 | 0.29% | N/A | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 1,685 | 0.11% | +0.03% | |
| Total votes | 1,541,036 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Republicanhold | |||||
Grassley won all four congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[70]
| District | Grassley | Judge | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 58% | 38% | Rod Blum |
| 2nd | 56% | 39% | Dave Loebsack |
| 3rd | 58% | 37% | David Young |
| 4th | 68% | 28% | Steve King |
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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