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2016 United States Senate election in Illinois

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016 United States Senate election in Illinois
← 2010November 8, 20162022 →
Turnout68.39%
 
NomineeTammy DuckworthMark Kirk
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote3,012,9402,184,693
Percentage54.86%39.78%
County results
Congressional district results
Township results
Precinct results
Duckworth:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Kirk:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data
U.S. senator before election

Mark Kirk
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Duckworth
Democratic

Elections in Illinois
U.S. Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
Secretary of State elections
Comptroller elections
Treasurer elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Judicial elections
Ballot measures and referendums
County Executive elections
County Executive elections

The2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the State ofIllinois, concurrently with the2016 U.S. presidential election, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate andlocal elections.

Prior to the election, incumbent senator Mark Kirk (R) was considered to be the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2016[1][2] due to Illinois's heavy Democratic partisan balance; news networks and analysts widely expected a Democratic pickup.

Party primary elections were held on March 15, 2016. Kirk lost re-election to a second full term[3] toTammy Duckworth, the U.S. representative fromIllinois's 8th congressional district and a decorated combat veteran of theIraq War. Duckworth became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Illinois since fellow DemocratCarol Moseley Braun in1992. Despite his loss, Kirk outperformed Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 2 percent. This is the last time a senator from Illinois lost re-election.

Background

[edit]

In 2010, RepublicanMark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nomineeAlexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.

Kirk suffered a severe stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013.[4] In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election,[5][6] but there was speculation that he might retire,[7] particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff.[8][9] RepublicanBruce Rauner was elected governor in 2014, and a possible scenario was that Kirk would resign early, allowing Rauner to appoint another Republican as the replacement.[10] Potential replacements included U.S. representativesBob Dold,Adam Kinzinger,Aaron Schock, andPeter Roskam, State SenatorsJason Barickman andChristine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO ofCitadel LLCKenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie.[7][9] In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.[3]

Kirk was identified byThe Washington Post,The New York Times,Politico,The Huffington Post,Slate andRoll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for re-election in 2016.[11][12][13][14][15][16]

See also:2016 Illinois elections § Turnout

For the primary election, turnout was 41.94%, with 3,215,334 votes cast.[17][18] For the general election, turnout was 68.39%, with 5,491,878 votes cast.[19][18]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • James Marter, businessman[20]

Removed from ballot

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Ron Wallace, investment advisor, conservative activist and economics professor[23][24]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Mark Kirk

State politicians

Newspapers

James Marter

Individuals

Organizations

  • ALIPAC (Americans for Legal Immigration PAC)[40]
  • Chicago 11th Ward Republican Party[41]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Kirk		James
Marter		Undecided
Chicago Tribune[42]March 2–6, 2016600± 4.1%65%22%12%
SIU Simon Institute[43]February 15–20, 2016306± 5.6%53%14%33%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Kirk—70–80%
  Kirk—60–70%
  Kirk—50–60%
Republican primary results[44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMark Kirk (incumbent)931,61970.6
RepublicanJames T. Marter388,57129.4
Total votes1,320,190100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Tammy Duckworth

U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Andrea Zopp

U.S. representatives

Notable individuals

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tammy
Duckworth		Andrea
Zopp		Napoleon
Harris		Undecided
SIU Simon Institute[43]February 15–20, 2016422± 4.7%52%6%4%37%
Public Policy Polling[85]July 20–21, 2015409± 4.9%59%10%—31%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Duckworth—80–90%
  Duckworth—70–80%
  Duckworth—60–70%
  Duckworth—50–60%
Democratic primary results[86]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticTammy Duckworth1,220,12864.38%
DemocraticAndrea Zopp455,72924.05%
DemocraticNapoleon Harris219,28611.57%
Total votes1,859,257100.00%

Third party candidates

[edit]

On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle, who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed,[87] and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin were likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions.[88][89]

Constitution Party (C) (write-in)

[edit]
  • Chad Koppie, farmer and vice president of Kane County Regional Board of School Trustees

Libertarian Party (L)

[edit]

Green Party (G)

[edit]

Independent (I)

[edit]
  • Eric M. Conklin, law enforcement officer

General election

[edit]
  • Tammy Duckworth (D), U.S. representative
  • Mark Kirk (R), incumbent U.S. senator
  • Chad Koppie (C) (write-in)
  • Kenton McMillen (L)
  • Scott Summers (G)

Debates

[edit]
DatesLocationKirkDuckworthLink
October 3, 2016Chicago,IllinoisParticipantParticipant[91]
October 27, 2016Springfield,IllinoisParticipantParticipant[92]
November 4, 2016Chicago,IllinoisParticipantParticipant[93]

Campaign

[edit]

Kirk had multiple factors working against him, as no Republican had won an Illinois US Senate race during a presidential election year since1972, and he had made a number of gaffes during the campaign. He had exaggerated his Iraq War record on his campaign website,[94] and during a debate, Kirk made a racially charged remark about Duckworth's familial military background.[95] Additionally, Republican presidential nomineeDonald Trump was unpopular in Chicago and its suburbs, and Kirk refused to endorse or vote for him, instead writing in formerU.S. Secretary of StateColin Powell.[96] Kirk also had a mostly liberal voting record in the Senate, favoring gay marriage, an assault weapons ban, and he had voted against defunding and repealing portions of Obamacare in 2015. Due to these factors, Kirk alienated the Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters whom he had previously won over in his 2010 campaign. Unusually, the normally Republican-leaning editorial board of theChicago Tribune endorsed Duckworth, as they believed that the health problems that Kirk had suffered as a result of his stroke made him a less effective senator.[97] This election had been cited as historic, as both major party nominees had physicaldisabilities.[98]

Endorsements

[edit]
Mark Kirk (R)

Governors

U.S. representatives

U.S. senators

State Representatives

State officials

Mayors

Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Tammy Duckworth (D)

U.S. presidents

U.S. vice presidents

U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[123]Lean D(flip)November 2, 2016
Inside Elections[124]Lean D(flip)November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[125]Likely D(flip)November 7, 2016
Daily Kos[126]Safe D(flip)November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[127]Likely D(flip)November 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]
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Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mark
Kirk (R)		Tammy
Duckworth (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey[128]November 1–7, 20161,823± 4.6%39%56%—5%
SurveyMonkey[129]October 31 – November 6, 20161,505± 4.6%39%56%—5%
SurveyMonkey[130]October 28 – November 3, 20161,120± 4.6%40%54%—6%
SurveyMonkey[131]October 27 – November 2, 2016997± 4.6%40%55%—5%
SurveyMonkey[132]October 26 – November 1, 2016911± 4.6%39%55%—6%
SurveyMonkey[133]October 25–31, 20161,003± 4.6%38%57%—5%
Emerson College[134]October 27–30, 2016500± 4.3%36%54%5%5%
Loras College[135]October 26–27, 2016600± 4.0%34%42%6%18%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research[136]October 16–18, 20161,200± 2.8%39%50%3%8%
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)[137]October 4–5, 2016600± 4.0%37%41%6%16%
Southern Illinois University[138]Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016865± 3.3%34%48%8%10%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D)[139]September 27–29, 2016600± 4.0%37%46%—17%
Emerson College[140]September 19–20, 2016700± 3.6%39%41%11%9%
Loras College[141]September 13–16, 2016600± 4.0%36%41%—22%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D)[142]August 1–4, 2016800± 3.5%37%44%—19%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research[143]July 14–16, 20161,200± 2.8%37%46%4%12%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D)[142]July 11–14, 2016800± 3.5%38%40%—22%
Basswood Research (R)[144]July 11–12, 2016800± 3.5%42%40%—18%
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)[145]March 30–31, 2016600± 4.0%40%43%—17%
End Citizens United[146]September 10–14, 2015948± 3.2%41%45%—14%
Public Policy Polling[85]July 20–21, 2015931± 3.2%36%42%—22%
Ogden & Fry[147]June 23, 2015598± 4.1%27%44%—29%
We Ask America[148]December 18, 20141,003± 3.0%45%46%—9%
Hypothetical polling

with Andrea Zopp

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Kirk (R)		Andrea
Zopp (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[85]July 20–21, 2015931± 3.2%38%29%—32%

with Lisa Madigan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Kirk (R)		Lisa
Madigan (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[149]November 22–25, 2013557± 4.2%41%41%19%

with Michelle Obama

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Kirk (R)		Michelle
Obama (D)		Undecided
Gravis Marketing[150]March 21–22, 2014806± 3.0%47%42%11%
Public Policy Polling[151]November 26–28, 2012500± 4.4%40%51%9%

with Pat Quinn

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Kirk (R)		Pat
Quinn (D)		Undecided
We Ask America[148]December 18, 20141,003± 3.0%55%36%9%

Results

[edit]

The result was a landslide victory forTammy Duckworth. Pre-election polling showed Kirk would be easily defeated by Duckworth, and the polls were proven right when Duckworth was declared the winner quickly after polls closed in Illinois. Duckworth performed extremely well in the heavily populated and strongly DemocraticCook County, home ofChicago. Duckworth also did well inChampaign,East St. Louis andCarbondale. Kirk did do well in rural parts of the state, but it was nowhere near enough to offset his weakness in the Chicago metropolitan area. The Chicago 'collar counties' — among them Kirk's home county ofLake County — previously voted for Kirk, but easily flipped to Duckworth. Duckworth was sworn in at 12:00 P.M. EST on January 3, 2017. TheLibertarian andGreen candidates polled well, winning three and two percent of the vote respectively.

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016[152]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticTammy Duckworth3,012,94054.86%+8.44%
RepublicanMark Kirk (incumbent)2,184,69239.78%−8.23%
LibertarianKenton McMillen175,9883.21%+0.85%
GreenScott Summers117,6192.14%−1.04%
Write-in6390.01%-0.02%
Total votes5,491,878100.00%N/A
Democraticgain fromRepublican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Duckworth won 12 of 18 districts, including one that elected a Republican.[153]

DistrictKirkDuckworthRepresentative
1st21%74%Bobby Rush
2nd19%77%Robin Kelly
3rd38%56%Dan Lipinski
4th16%77%Luis Gutierrez
5th31%64%Mike Quigley
6th50%44%Peter Roskam
7th15%82%Danny K. Davis
8th38%56%Tammy Duckworth
Raja Krishnamoorthi
9th33%63%Jan Schakowsky
10th42%53%Robert Dold
Brad Schneider
11th37%57%Bill Foster
12th43%52%Mike Bost
13th47.2%46.9%Rodney Davis
14th51%42%Randy Hultgren
15th62%33%John Shimkus
16th54%39%Adam Kinzinger
17th46%48%Cheri Bustos
18th59%35%Darin LaHood

References

[edit]
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  87. ^"June 27 is the deadline for Illinois petitions. Besides the Libertarian and Green statewide petitions, the Constitution Party and the Socialist Party also submitted presidential petitions. The latter two did not have as many as 25,000 signatures. However, if no one challenges them, they will be considered valid. A fifth petition was filed by a presidential candidate named Mary Vann, using the label "Human Rights Party"".Ballot Access News. June 27, 2016. RetrievedJuly 6, 2016.
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  95. ^"Mark Kirk apologizes for using Tammy Duckworth's Thai heritage in debate jab".CNN. October 28, 2016. RetrievedJuly 17, 2018.
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  98. ^Slack, Donovan."Two disabled candidates locked in historic battle".USA TODAY. RetrievedMarch 22, 2020.
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  117. ^"Mark Kirk".2016 Endorsements. Washington, D.C.: Humane Society Legislative Fund. RetrievedOctober 14, 2016.Voters in Illinois who care about animal welfare should support Sen. Kirk for re-election. ... HSLF notes that Rep. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., has also been a strong supporter of animal protection
  118. ^Mark Kirk [@MarkKirk] (October 11, 2016)."I'm proud of my endorsement from the @HSLegFund and my support from furry friends across #IL. #ilsen" (Tweet). RetrievedOctober 14, 2016 – viaTwitter.
  119. ^abBendery, Jennifer (April 6, 2016)."Obama, Biden endorse Tammy Duckworth for Senate".Huffington Post. RetrievedAugust 15, 2016.
  120. ^Hagen, Lisa (April 29, 2016)."Elizabeth Warren stumps, raises funds for Duckworth".The Hill. RetrievedAugust 2, 2016.
  121. ^"Endorsement: Tammy Duckworth for U.S. Senate from Illinois".Chicago Tribune. October 14, 2016. RetrievedOctober 23, 2016.
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  134. ^Emerson College
  135. ^Loras CollegeArchived November 3, 2016, at theWayback Machine
  136. ^The Illinois Poll - Victory Research
  137. ^GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)
  138. ^Southern Illinois University
  139. ^Normington, Petts and Associates (D)
  140. ^Emerson College
  141. ^Loras CollegeArchived September 21, 2016, at theWayback Machine
  142. ^abNormington, Petts and Associates (D)
  143. ^The Illinois Poll - Victory Research
  144. ^Basswood Research (R)
  145. ^GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk)
  146. ^End Citizens United
  147. ^Ogden & Fry
  148. ^abWe Ask America
  149. ^Public Policy Polling
  150. ^Gravis Marketing
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  153. ^"Dra 2020".

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