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2016 United States Senate election in Alaska

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016 United States Senate election in Alaska
← 2010
November 8, 2016
2022 →
 
NomineeLisa MurkowskiJoe Miller
PartyRepublicanLibertarian
Popular vote138,14990,825
Percentage44.36%29.16%
 
NomineeMargaret StockRay Metcalfe
PartyIndependentDemocratic
Popular vote41,19436,200
Percentage13.23%11.62%
State house district results
Borough and census area results
Precinct results

Murkowski:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Miller:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Stock:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Metcalfe:     20–30%     30–40%
Tie%/No Votes:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     N/A
U.S. senator before election

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

Elections in Alaska

The2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the State ofAlaska, concurrently with the2016 U.S. presidential election, as well asother elections to the United States Senate in other states andelections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate andlocal elections.

IncumbentRepublican SenatorLisa Murkowski won re-election to a third term in office.[1] The primaries were held on August 16.[2] She was challenged by several candidates, including DemocratRay Metcalfe, a former Republican state legislator; IndependentMargaret Stock, an attorney; and LibertarianJoe Miller, who had defeated Murkowski for the Republican nominationsix years before.[3]

Murkowski was re-elected with 44.4% of the vote, becoming the first person in history to win three elections to the U.S. Senate with pluralities but not majorities, having taken 48.6% in 2004 and 39.5% in 2010.[4] Miller's 29.2% finish was then the best ever for a Libertarian candidate in a U.S. Senate election in terms of vote percentage.[a] This record was surpassed four years later by Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., who received 33.4% of the vote in the2020 Arkansas Senate election, which had no Democratic candidate. This was also the first U.S. Senate election where four candidates received more than 10% of the vote since the1942 Minnesota race, as well as being the first Senate race since then where the Democratic nominee finished fourth.

Background

[edit]

After Republican U.S. SenatorFrank Murkowski was electedGovernor of Alaska in2002, he appointed his daughterLisa to the Senate to replace him. She was elected to a full term in2004 but was defeated in the Republican primary in2010 byTea Party challengerJoe Miller.[6] She ran as a write-in candidate in the general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39.5% of the vote to Miller's 35.5% andDemocratic nomineeScott McAdams' 23.5%.[7][8] She is one of only two U.S. Senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other beingStrom Thurmond in1954.[9]

Republican primary

[edit]

As Murkowski was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010, it had been speculated that she would be challenged from the right again in 2016.[10][11]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Lisa Murkowski

Governors

U.S. Senators

Bob Lochner

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[30]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanLisa Murkowski (incumbent)39,54571.52%
RepublicanBob Lochner8,48015.34%
RepublicanPaul Kendall4,2727.73%
RepublicanThomas Lamb2,9965.42%
Total votes55,293100.00%

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

[edit]

Candidates from theAlaska Democratic Party,Alaska Libertarian Party andAlaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Democratic candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Removed

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Libertarian candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Cean Stevens, small business owner, nominee for the state house in 2014 and Republican nominee for the state house in 2012[12][36]

Results

[edit]
Primary results[30]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticRay Metcalfe15,22850.06%
DemocraticEdgar Blatchford10,09033.17%
LibertarianCean Stevens5,10216.77%
Total votes30,420100.00%

Subsequent events

[edit]

Cean Stevens was originally the only Libertarian to file, and was the sole Libertarian in the primary. Stevens withdrew after winning the nomination, and the Alaska Libertarian Party nominatedJoe Miller as her replacement.[3]

Third party and independent candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Breck Craig (independent)[37]
  • Ted Gianoutsos (independent), founder of the Veterans Party of Alaska and perennial candidate[37]
  • Margaret Stock (independent), attorney and retired Army Lt. Colonel[38][37]

Failed to qualify

[edit]
  • Sid Hill (independent)[37]
  • Bruce Walden (Veterans Party), retired army sergeant and Republican candidate for the state house in 2006[37][39][40][29]
  • Jed Whittaker (independent), commercial fisherman, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in1992 and Green Party nominee for the U.S. Senate in1996[37][41]

Declined

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Lisa Murkowski (R)[44]$6,058,418$7,055,457$91,119
Ray Metcalfe (D)[45]$20,865$13,147$7,718
Margaret Stock (I)[46]$740,769$738,918$1,850
Joe Miller (L)[47]$122$445$99,402

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[48]Likely RNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49]Safe RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[50]Safe RNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos[51]Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[52]Safe RNovember 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lisa
Murkowski (R)		Joe
Miller (L)		Ray
Metcalfe (D)		Margaret
Stock (I)		OtherUndecided
Moore Information[53]October 5–6, 2016500± 4.0%49%16%9%8%1%15%
Alaska Survey Research[54]September 28 – October 2, 2016660± 3.8%50%18%12%7%2%11%
Moore Information[55]September 13–15, 2016500±4.0%48%15%15%7%1%12%
Moore Information (R-Murkowski)[56]August 27–29, 2016500± 4.0%56%—12%5%10%[57]17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lisa
Murkowski (R)		Ray
Metcalfe (D)		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[58]November 1–7, 2016409± 4.6%55%33%12%
SurveyMonkey[59]October 31 – November 6, 2016382± 4.6%57%32%11%
SurveyMonkey[60]October 27 – November 2, 2016303± 4.6%60%25%15%
SurveyMonkey[61]October 28 – November 3, 2016334± 4.6%56%30%14%
SurveyMonkey[62]October 26 – November 1, 2016268± 4.6%60%22%18%
SurveyMonkey[63]October 25–31, 2016300± 4.6%57%26%22%

Endorsements

[edit]
Lisa Murkowski (R)

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Joe Miller (L)

Individuals

  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage Assemblywoman and candidate for Mayor of Anchorage in 2015[68]
  • Paul Kendall, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[69]
  • Tom Lamb, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[69]
  • Bob Lochner, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[69]
  • Mark Levin, host ofThe Mark Levin Show[70]

Organizations

Margaret Stock (I)

Individuals

Organizations

  • The Centrist Project[76]

Results

[edit]
2016 United States Senate election in Alaska[77]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanLisa Murkowski (incumbent)138,14944.36%+8.87%
LibertarianJoe Miller90,82529.16%+28.59%
IndependentMargaret Stock41,19413.23%N/A
DemocraticRay Metcalfe36,20011.62%−11.84%
IndependentBreck A. Craig2,6090.84%N/A
IndependentTed Gianoutsos1,7580.56%N/A
Write-in7060.23%−39.70%
Total votes311,441100.00%N/A
Republicanhold

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^TheLibertarian Party of Massachusetts set the total vote records in2000 and2002 with over 300,000 both times and in races with and without Republican opponents;Gary Johnson also won over 100,000 votes in New Mexico in2018.[5]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Erica Martinson (March 6, 2016)."Murkowski mines energy industry for major campaign funds".Alaska Dispatch News. RetrievedMarch 8, 2016.Murkowski's main challenger, Stock, is running as an independent
  2. ^ab"Lisa Murkowski announces that she's running in 2016". AmandaCoyne.com. October 19, 2013. Archived fromthe original on October 25, 2014. RetrievedOctober 25, 2014.
  3. ^abBaird, Austin (September 6, 2016)."Joe Miller to challenge Murkowski as Libertarian Party nominee".KTUU. RetrievedSeptember 6, 2016.
  4. ^"Murkowski Could Become 1st US Senator with Three Plurality Victories". Smart Politics. October 11, 2016. RetrievedNovember 12, 2016.
  5. ^"New Mexico Election Results".The New York Times. November 6, 2018. RetrievedNovember 9, 2018.
  6. ^Sean Cockerham (August 31, 2010)."It's another Tea Party win as Alaska's Murkowski concedes".Anchorage Daily News. Archived fromthe original on September 1, 2010. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2010.
  7. ^Bohrer, Becky (September 18, 2010)."Murkowski mounting write-in bid for Alaska Senate". Associated Press. RetrievedNovember 1, 2010.
  8. ^McCormick, John (September 18, 2010)."Murkowski Says She Will Run as Write-In Candidate in Senate Race in Alaska". Bloomberg. RetrievedOctober 23, 2010.
  9. ^"Murkowski triumphs in Alaska Senate race: Alaska's Murkowski appears to be first write-in candidate to win Senate since 1954". The Seattle Times. November 17, 2010. RetrievedNovember 18, 2010.
  10. ^"Senate Democrats look to next elections".The Hill. March 27, 2014. RetrievedOctober 25, 2014.
  11. ^"Republicans Will Need to Sweep to Hold Onto Senate Majority in 2016".National Journal. September 16, 2014. RetrievedOctober 25, 2014.
  12. ^abcde"August 16, 2016 Primary Candidate List".State of Alaska Division of Elections. Archived fromthe original on June 29, 2016. RetrievedJune 1, 2016.
  13. ^Garcia, Eric (January 27, 2016)."Will Pro-LGBT Stances Hurt GOP Senators?".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on March 12, 2016. RetrievedMarch 8, 2016.
  14. ^Reynolds, Casey (February 5, 2016)."Friday in the Sun!!! (Feb 5)".The Midnight Sun. RetrievedMarch 8, 2016.
  15. ^Martinson, Erica (June 16, 2016)."Ex-Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan drops out of Senate race".Alaska Dispatch News. RetrievedJune 17, 2016.
  16. ^Reynolds, Casey (April 8, 2016)."Friday in the Sun!!! (April 8)".The Midnight Sun. RetrievedApril 11, 2016.
  17. ^abcPathé, Simone (May 15, 2015)."Murkowski Facing a Primary Puzzle".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on December 15, 2015. RetrievedMay 15, 2015.
  18. ^Manning, Phillip (January 5, 2016)."Sen. Dunleavey won't challenge Murkowski after all".Alaska Public Media. RetrievedJanuary 6, 2016.
  19. ^Joseph, Cameron (December 28, 2014)."10 senators who could lose in 2016".The Hill. RetrievedFebruary 16, 2015.
  20. ^Quinn, Catie (January 6, 2016)."Joe Miller Mulling Senate Bid, "Not Seriously"".Radio Kenai. RetrievedJanuary 6, 2016.
  21. ^Reynolds, Casey (May 18, 2016)."New signs point to Joe Miller challenging Lisa Murkowski".The Midnight Sun. RetrievedMay 24, 2016.
  22. ^Reynolds, Casey (January 1, 2016)."Friday in the Sun!!!! (Jan 1)".The Midnight Sun. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2016.
  23. ^Goddard, Taegan (January 3, 2016)."Palin Hints at Possible Senate Bid".Political Wire. RetrievedJanuary 6, 2016.
  24. ^Herz, Nathaniel (August 22, 2015)."With big campaign war chest, Murkowski forges toward 2016".Alaska Dispatch News. RetrievedOctober 7, 2015.
  25. ^ab"Bill Weld says he supports Lisa Murkowski over Joe Miller". Archived fromthe original on October 31, 2016. RetrievedOctober 31, 2016.
  26. ^Martinson, Erica (June 7, 2016)."Sullivan on Sullivan: Alaska senator backs Murkowski in U.S. Senate race".Alaska Dispatch News. RetrievedJune 27, 2016.
  27. ^Ruskin, Liz (August 9, 2016)."What $5M? Murkowski's GOP rivals disregard long odds".Alaska Public Media. RetrievedAugust 11, 2016.
  28. ^"Endorsements".Alaska Republican Assembly. Archived fromthe original on June 27, 2016. RetrievedJune 27, 2016.
  29. ^abWalden, Bruce (July 22, 2016)."To all who have been watching this page".Facebook. RetrievedAugust 11, 2016.
  30. ^ab"2016 PRIMARY ELECTION Election Summary Report August 16, 2016 Official Results"(PDF). Alaska Secretary of State. RetrievedDecember 15, 2016.
  31. ^Reynolds, Casey (June 1, 2016)."Blatchford Jumps Into U.S. Senate Race As Democrat".The Midnight Sun. RetrievedJune 1, 2016.
  32. ^"Losing Democrats Already Being Touted for 2016 Comebacks".National Journal. November 12, 2014. RetrievedNovember 19, 2014.
  33. ^Joseph, Cameron (February 5, 2015)."Senate Democratic campaign chairman: Majority or bust in 2016".The Hill. RetrievedFebruary 16, 2015.
  34. ^Sullivan, Sean (February 2, 2015)."Why Mark Begich could run for the Senate again".The Washington Post. RetrievedFebruary 16, 2015.
  35. ^Bohrer, Becky (February 16, 2016)."Former Sen. Begich says he won't run for any office this year".Alaska Dispatch News. RetrievedFebruary 16, 2016.
  36. ^Reynolds, Casey (February 26, 2016)."Friday in the Sun! (Feb 26)".The Midnight Sun. RetrievedMarch 8, 2016.
  37. ^abcdef"November 8, 2016 General Election Candidate List".State of Alaska Division of Elections. Archived fromthe original on October 21, 2016. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2016.
  38. ^Kelly, Devin (February 17, 2016)."Anchorage attorney Margaret Stock challenging Lisa Murkowski for Senate".Alaska Dispatch News. RetrievedFebruary 17, 2016.
  39. ^"Veterans Party of America Nominates Bruce Walden for Alaskan State Senate".PR.com. September 12, 2015. RetrievedFebruary 17, 2016.
  40. ^"Veterans Party Scores Election Win, Readies for 2016".Independent Political Report. November 23, 2015. RetrievedFebruary 17, 2016.
  41. ^Whittaker, Jed (January 11, 2016)."Letter: My candidacy is based on love, not contributions".Juneau Empire. RetrievedFebruary 17, 2016.
  42. ^Pathé, Simone (September 13, 2016)."Mark Begich Doesn't Rule Out Alaska Write-In Campaign".Roll Call. RetrievedSeptember 14, 2016.
  43. ^"Begich won't run for US Senate this fall in Alaska".Las Vegas Sun. September 22, 2016. Archived fromthe original on September 23, 2016. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  44. ^"Murkowski, Lisa — Candidate for Senate". Federal Election Commission. January 2015. RetrievedAugust 16, 2016.
  45. ^"Alaska Senate Race". OpenSecrets.org. RetrievedAugust 16, 2016.
  46. ^"Stock, Margaret — Candidate for Senate". Federal Election Commission. January 2015. RetrievedAugust 16, 2016.
  47. ^"Miller, Joe — Candidate for Senate". Federal Election Commission. January 2015. RetrievedSeptember 6, 2016.
  48. ^"2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedMarch 26, 2021.
  49. ^"2016 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2016.
  50. ^"2016 Senate Ratings".Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedNovember 3, 2016.
  51. ^"Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version".Daily Kos. RetrievedMarch 27, 2021.
  52. ^"Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedOctober 28, 2016.
  53. ^Moore InformationArchived 2016-10-08 at theWayback Machine
  54. ^Alaska Survey Research
  55. ^Moore InformationArchived 2016-10-08 at theWayback Machine
  56. ^Moore Information (R-Murkowski)
  57. ^Cean Stevens (L) 5%, Breck Craig (I) 1%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%, None 3%
  58. ^SurveyMonkey
  59. ^SurveyMonkey
  60. ^SurveyMonkey
  61. ^SurveyMonkey
  62. ^SurveyMonkey
  63. ^SurveyMonkey
  64. ^Martinson, Erica (September 16, 2016)."Sullivan sticking with Murkowski in widening U.S. Senate race".Alaska Dispatch News. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2016.
  65. ^Morrow, Weston (August 23, 2016)."National teachers union endorses Murkowski".Fairbanks Daily News-Miner.Archived from the original on July 17, 2023. RetrievedOctober 5, 2016.The National Education Association — the largest teachers union in the United States — endorsed Sen. Lisa Murkowski in her re-election bid on Monday.(subscription required)
  66. ^"NRA Endorses Lisa Murkowski for Re-election to U.S. Senate". Fairfax, Virginia. September 28, 2016.Archived from the original on September 29, 2016. RetrievedOctober 5, 2016.
  67. ^"U.S. Chamber of Commerce Endorses Lisa Murkowski for Senate - Lisa Murkowski".lisamurkowski.com. July 25, 2016. Archived fromthe original on October 19, 2016. RetrievedOctober 24, 2016.
  68. ^Athens, Maria (September 13, 2016)."Amy Demboski: "There's Only One Conservative In The U.S. Senate Race"".KATN. Archived fromthe original on March 4, 2021. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2016.
  69. ^abc"All Three of Murkowski's Republican Primary Opponents Say They're Voting Joe Miller".Joe Miller for U.S. Senate. September 9, 2016. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2016.
  70. ^"Mark Levin Endorses Joe Miller for U.S. Senate in Alaska".peoplespunditdaily.com. September 26, 2016.
  71. ^"Alaska Republican Assembly Supporting Joe Miller for US Senate".Joe Miller for U.S. Senate. September 12, 2016. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2016.
  72. ^"Alaska Right to Life Endorses Pro-Life Joe Miller Against Pro-Abortion Incumbent Lisa Murkowski in Race for US Senate".joemiller.us. September 7, 2016. RetrievedOctober 24, 2016.
  73. ^"Joe Miller Endorsed by Gun Owners of America".Joe Miller for U.S. Senate. September 17, 2016. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2016.
  74. ^Martinson, Erica (October 7, 2016)."Democrat former Sen. Mark Begich endorses independent Margaret Stock for US Senate".Alaska Dispatch News. RetrievedOctober 9, 2016.
  75. ^Bohrer, Becky (August 19, 2016)."Stock picks up endorsement in battle against Murkowski".Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. RetrievedSeptember 9, 2016.
  76. ^Sherrets, Dane (May 12, 2016)."The Centrist Project Endorses Independent Margaret Stock for U.S. Senate from Alaska".The Centrist Project. Archived fromthe original on September 19, 2016. RetrievedSeptember 9, 2016.
  77. ^"2016 General Election November 8, 2016 Official Results". elections.alaska.gov. November 8, 2016. RetrievedDecember 15, 2016.

External links

[edit]

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