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2016 Texas Democratic presidential primary

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016Texas Democratic presidential primary

← 2012March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01)2020 →
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CandidateHillary ClintonBernie Sanders
Home stateNew YorkVermont
Delegate count14775
Popular vote936,004476,547
Percentage65.19%33.19%

County results
Precinct results
Clinton:     30-40%     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80-90%     90-100%
Sanders:     30-40%     40-50%     50-60%     70-80%     80-90%     90-100%
O'Malley:     30-40%
Other:     Tie     No Vote
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The2016 Texas Democratic presidential primary took place on March 1 in the U.S. state ofTexas as one of theDemocratic Party's primaries ahead of the2016 presidential election.

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday,"Democratic primaries were held in ten other states plusAmerican Samoa, while theRepublican Party held primaries in eleven states, including their ownTexas primary.

Decisive support fromLatinos—particularly in the ruralRio Grande Valley—delivered a landslide win to Clinton.[1]

Opinion polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary results[2]March 1, 2016Hillary Clinton
65.2%
Bernie Sanders
33.2%
Others
1.6%
Emerson[3]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 275

February 26–28, 2016Hillary Clinton
68%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided
6%
American Research Group[4]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 26–28, 2016Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
4%
YouGov/CBS News[5]

Margin of error: ± 6.9%
Sample size: 750

February 22–26, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided
2%
Monmouth[6]

Margin of error: ± 5.6
Sample size: 304

February 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided
6%
Emerson College[7]

Margin of error: ± 5.4
Sample size: 328

February 21–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
4%
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl[8]

Margin of error: ± 4.9
Sample size: 405

February 18–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
3%
KTVT-CBS 11[9]

Margin of error: ± 3.8
Sample size: 675

February 22, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Others / Undecided
10%
TEGNA/SurveyUSA[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.1
Sample size: 569

February 21–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided
7%
Austin American-Statesman[11]

Margin of error: ± 5.0
Sample size: 411

February 19–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
66%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided
8%
UT/TT[12]

Margin of error: ±4.57
Sample Size: ? Dem Voters

February 12–19, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Rocky de la Fuente
2%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Willie Wilson 1%
Public Policy Polling[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.3
Sample size: 514

February 14–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[14]

Margin of error ± 4.57%
Sample Size: 459

October 30 – November 8, 2015Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Martin O'Malley 1%Lawrence Lessig 0% No Opinion 7%
CBS-DFW[15]

Margin of error: ± 3.09%
Sample size: 1008

October 23–24, 2015Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
10%
Martin O'Malley
3%
Undecided 28%
Texas Lyceum[16]

Margin of error: ± 7.15%
Sample size: 185

September 8–21, 2015Hillary Clinton
36%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Joe Biden
15%
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Lincoln Chafee 0% Undecided 23%
UoT/Texas Tribune[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.58%
Sample size: 457

June 5–14, 2015Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
15%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 8%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1% Undecided 12%
UoT/Texas Tribune[18]

Margin of error: ± 4.89%
Sample size: 401

February 6–15, 2015Hillary Clinton
62%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
6%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Undecided 14%
Polls in 2014
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
UoT/Texas Tribune[19]

Margin of error: ± 4.73%
Sample size: 429

October 10–19, 2014Hillary Clinton
60%
Elizabeth Warren
13%
Joe Biden
10%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Undecided 13%
UoT/Texas Tribune[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.75%
Sample size: 426

May 30 – June 8, 2014Hillary Clinton
64%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Joe Biden
8%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Undecided 10%
Polls in 2013
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
UoT/Texas Tribune[21]

Margin of error: ± 4.82%
Sample size: 414

October 18–29, 2013Hillary Clinton
67%
Joe Biden
7%
Elizabeth Warren
5%
Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Don't Know 17%
UoT/Texas Tribune[22]

Margin of error: ± 5.89%
Sample size: 376

May 31 – June 9, 2013Hillary Clinton
66%
Joe Biden
11%
Andrew Cuomo
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Don't Know 19%

Results

[edit]
See also:Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries

Primary date: March 1, 2016
National delegates: 75

Texas Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton936,00465.19%14721168
Bernie Sanders476,54733.19%75075
Rocky De La Fuente8,4290.59%
Martin O'Malley(withdrawn)5,3640.37%
Willie Wilson3,2540.23%
Keith Judd2,5690.18%
Calvis L. Hawes2,0170.14%
Star Locke1,7110.12%
Uncommitted088
Total1,435,895100%22229251
Source:[23][24]

Results by county

[edit]
County[25]Clinton%Sanders%
Anderson99675.6%29922.7%
Andrews7666.1%3833.0%
Angelina1,95073.7%62223.5%
Aransas48863.1%27235.1%
Archer9958.9%6438.1%
Armstrong120.0%480.0%
Atascosa1,35571.7%47825.3%
Austin49273.4%16524.6%
Bailey8471.2%2924.6%
Bandera37855.4%29443.1%
Bastrop2,89659.0%1,95039.8%
Bland4661.3%2432.0%
Bee1,13375.1%32021.2%
Bell7,43069.9%3,09029.1%
Bexar76,53366.8%36,75032.1%
Blanco28454.9%23244.9%
Borden480.0%120.0%
Bosque35362.6%19935.3%
Bowie2,43776.7%68721.6%
Brazoria8,00969.6%3,72128.6%
Brazos3,56149.1%3,58949.5%
Brewster70143.7%77148.1%
Briscoe1657.1%1132.3%
Brooks1,60374.4%36216.8%
Brown31958.5%21238.9%
Burleson46974.0%14923.5%
Burnet87859.4%58039.3%
Caldwell1,54366.1%74231.8%
Calhoun70966.6%30528.6%
Callahan8744.2%10452.8%
Cameron20,33268.2%8,32027.9%
Camp48476.6%13421.2%
Carson5062.5%3037.5%
Cass77873.1%26524.9%
Castro12773.9%4023.3%
Chambers68867.9%29529.1%
Cherokee99074.2%32424.3%
Childress5458.7%3437.0%
Clay12062.5%6533.9%
Cochran450.0%337.5%
Coke2548.1%2548.1%
Coleman7560.0%4939.2%
Collin23,67059.1%16,17140.4%
Collingsworth3659.0%2439.3%
Colorado47474.8%15023.7%
Comal3,11260.0%2,02739.1%
Comanche22163.5%11733.6%
Concho2769.2%1128.2%
Cooke44956.4%33442.0%
Coryell1,01062.7%57735.8%
Cottle2757.5%1838.3%
Crane6266.0%2425.5%
Crockett26637.7%24034.0%
Crosby13158.2%9140.4%
Culberson35862.2%16027.8%
Dallam2461.5%1333.3%
Dallas113,66471.5%44,27527.8%
Dawson9270.2%3426.0%
Deaf Smith20067.8%8629.2%
Delta11067.9%5131.5%
Denton16,49150.7%15,78148.6%
Dewitt29370.3%11327.1%
Dickens1352.0%1144.0%
Dimmit1,80468.9%53420.4%
Donley3547.8%3550.7%
Duval2,27376.2%52317.5%
Eastland17155.7%12239.7%
Ector1,85564.9%94233.0%
Edwards4257.5%2737.0%
Ellis3,72569.5%1,56829.2%
El Paso36,14066.0%17,23431.5%
Erath42752.5%36544.9%
Falls55191.4%11517.0%
Fannin50763.0%27934.7%
Fayette58463.9%30933.8%
Fisher22653.3%14634.4%
Floyd6065.9%2426.4%
Foard8034.3%11248.1%
Fort Bend29,25974.6%9,77424.9%
Franklin16467.8%7330.2%
Freestone38076.8%10220.6%
Frio1,86467.7%63022.9%
Gaines9155.8%5936.2%
Galveston9,46668.2%4,24130.6%
Garza3556.5%2235.5%
Gillespie49360.9%31438.8%
Glasscock450.0%450.0%
Goliad38966.4%15125.8%
Gonzales36872.3%12925.3%
Gray11153.9%8641.8%
Grayson1,94052.8%1,68745.9%
Gregg3,42378.0%91120.8%
Grimes58473.2%20125.2%
Guadalupe3,79363.9%2,06734.8%
Hale31260.4%17634.0%
Hall6364.3%2828.6%
Hamilton11556.5%8440.2%
Hansford2158.3%1336.1%
Hardeman7139.4%8848.9%
Hardin62559.5%39827.9%
Harris157,00070.5%63,41628.5%
Harrison2,04676.9%53019.9%
Hartley1955.8%1936.5%
Haskell15958.7%9234.3%
Hays6,63446.9%7,32251.8%
Hemphill1565.2%834.8%
Henderson1,59371.6%59826.9%
Hidalgo40,30869.1%15,90727.3%
Hill71869.1%29728.6%
Hockley18358.3%11636.9%
Hood92862.6%52735.6%
Houston46480.0%10117.4%
Howard35163.5%19234.7%
Hudspeth9939.9%9739.1%
Hunt1,32960.5%84938.6%
Hutchinson15355.8%10337.6%
Irion2865.1%1432.6%
Jack8762.1%4632.9%
Jackson26670.6%9424.9%
Jasper93275.7%27021.9%
Jeff Davis14049.5%13246.6%
Jefferson16,58976.9%4,44120.6%
Jim Hogg1,42175.0%35618.8%
Jim Wells4,69771.7%1,43621.9%
Johnson2,27158.5%1,56640.4%
Jones17363.1%9534.7%
Karnes72653.0%47934.9%
Kaufman2,23469.6%95129.6%
Kendall64156.2%49143.0%
Kenedy6359.4%3230.2%
Kent2236.7%2846.7%
Kerr1,02058.4%70940.6%
Kimble2944.6%3452.3%
King266.7%133.3%
Kinney21160.8%10730.8%
Kleberg1,74070.7%63025.6%
Knox6871.6%1717.9%
Lamar92469.3%38829.1%
Lamb17253.3%8726.9%
Lampasas32459.8%20738.2%
Lavaca32268.5%13729.2%
Lee36765.4%18032.1%
Leon28974.3%8922.9%
Liberty1,04371.3%38326.2%
Limestone59279.1%14419.3%
Lipscomb2264.7%1132.4%
Live Oak20367.4%7324.3%
Llano51964.8%26733.3%
Loving325.0%541.7%
Lubbock5,78257.3%4,13741.0%
Lynn1458.3%1041.7%
Madison22775.2%7023.2%
Martin3659.0%1727.9%
Mason8962.7%5035.2%
Matagorda1,08874.2%34423.5%
Maverick4,34369.5%1,50824.2%
McCulloch9366.0%4330.5%
McLennan5,53167.0%2,63331.9%
McMullen480.0%120.0%
Medina1,07369.7%43628.3%
Menard2356.1%1639.0%
Midland1,55663.1%85434.6%
Milam57767.8%25229.6%
Mills5053.2%4143.6%
Mitchell10973.2%3322.2%
Montague15354.3%12243.3%
Montgomery7,54059.5%5,04039.8%
Moore14959.9%8132.5%
Morris48871.4%16924.7%
Motley1368.4%631.6%
Nacogdoches1,60065.2%82933.8%
Navarro95772.5%33425.3%
Newton60544.2%52940.4%
Nolan27065.5%12229.6%
Nueces15,67170.5%6,17527.8%
Ochiltree3653.7%2943.3%
Oldham1168.8%425.0%
Orange1,85268.1%81630.0%
Palo Pinto36159.5%23037.9%
Panola55980.1%13018.6%
Parker1,80854.6%1,47544.5%
Parmer8272.6%2623.0%
Pecos81655.4%48833.2%
Polk86071.1%32626.9%
Potter1,49056.5%1,09441.5%
Presidio77657.4%44733.1%
Rains17364.3%8933.1%
Randall1,59151.0%1,48947.7%
Reagan1263.2%736.8%
Real2853.9%2344.2%
Red River37870.1%8718.2%
Reeves1,12859.6%56329.7%
Refugio54964.1%25429.7%
Roberts360.0%240.0%
Robertson89670.9%28922.9%
Rockwall1,72659.5%1,04636.1%
Runnels8057.6%5539.6%
Rusk1,11478.1%27619.4%
Sabine19266.4%8228.4%
San Augustine36883.1%6214.0%
San Jacinto56272.1%19324.7%
San Patricio2,63873.2%85023.6%
San Saba5867.4%2731.4%
Schleicer5864.4%2426.7%
Scurry15461.6%8534.0%
Shackelford1550.0%1446.7%
Shelby34677.8%9020.2%
Sherman1961.3%825.8%
Smith5,77873.5%2,00325.5%
Somervell6649.3%6750.0%
Starr6,93677.8%1,63518.3%
Stephens4555.6%3543.2%
Sterling550.0%440.0%
Stonewall5957.8%3635.3%
Sutton2769.2%1025.6%
Swisher14160.5%7833.5%
Tarrant68,04465.2%35,73334.2%
Taylor1,79454.6%1,42743.4%
Terrell6743.5%6441.6%
Terry14159.0%8334.7%
Throckmorton2661.9%1638.1%
Titus55271.3%19725.5%
Tom Green1,65755.9%1,23941.8%
Travis69,44648.2%74,06851.4%
Trinity33371.8%11725.2%
Tyler45374.3%37222.8%
Upshur72571.7%26926.6%
Upton9155.8%4527.6%
Uvalde1,74463.4%76227.7%
Val Verde1,77665.8%76528.3%
Van Zandt72264.1%37733.5%
Victoria2,20664.5%1,11932.7%
Walker1,29261.3%78937.4%
Waller1,22167.4%55930.9%
Ward30662.2%14729.9%
Washington78273.0%27825.9%
Webb18,55971.9%6,17723.9%
Wharton96176.5%22418.3%
Wheeler3759.7%2337.1%
Wichita1,95855.5%1,52443.2%
Wilbarger13661.5%7533.9%
Willacy2,08170.0%66022.2%
Williamson16,39652.7%14,55446.7%
Wilson1,28271.5%48126.8%
Winkler3069.8%1125.6%
Wise75156.2%55841.8%
Wood66368.7%28529.5%
Yoakum942.9%1047.6%
Young20158.8%13238.6%
Zapata1,97367.9%68523.6%
Zavala1,55775.5%37318.1%
Total936,00465.2%476,54733.2%

Analysis

[edit]

Clinton won the Texas primary by a landslide margin of over thirty points, thanks in large part to support fromHispanic/Latinos (whom she won by a margin of 71–29 over Bernie Sanders),African American voters (whom she won 83–15) andwhitewomen (63-35 over Sanders).[26] Clinton won all of the major cities (Fort Worth,Dallas,El Paso,San Antonio, andHouston, andCorpus Christi) except forAustin where Sanders won only narrowly.

Sanders won few counties outside ofTravis County, where theUniversity of Texas at Austin is located. He won neighboringHays County, home to another prominent college,Texas State University inSan Marcos. Sanders also managed to very narrowly edge out Clinton inBrazos County, home toCollege Station andTexas A&M University, by 28 votes. In all three counties mentioned above, Sanders performed worse thanBarack Obama did in the 2008Texas Democratic primary and caucuses, despite all three containing a bloc of young voters, a demographic Sanders usually performs well in.

The rest of Sanders's victories came from 11 sparsely populated counties where Republicans have performed strongly in the past several elections. His strongest performance came from theTexas Panhandle inArmstrong County, where he won 80% of the vote, 4 votes to Clinton's 1. Two counties in particular,Glasscock andCoke, had Sanders and Clinton tie.[27]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Texas Latinos Back Clinton, Sanders Takes Latino Counties in Colorado".NBC News. March 2, 2016. RetrievedDecember 28, 2020.
  2. ^Primary results
  3. ^"EMERSON POLL: CRUZ CLINGS TO NARROW LEAD IN TEXAS; TRUMP ROMPS IN BAY STATE, CLINTON PULLS AWAY FROM SANDERS"(PDF).
  4. ^"Texas Democratic Presidential Primary".
  5. ^"CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerTexas".
  6. ^"TEXAS: CRUZ, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES"(PDF).
  7. ^"2016 Texas Republican Presidential Primary – Cruz 29%, Trump 28% (Emerson College Polling Society 2/21-2/23)"(PDF).
  8. ^"NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll"(PDF).
  9. ^"Cruz Increases Lead In TX Against Trump In KTVT-CBS 11 / Dixie Strategies Poll".
  10. ^"Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22696"(PDF).
  11. ^"Cruz, Clinton still lead in Texas".
  12. ^Ramsey, Ross."UT/TT Poll: Clinton Still Leads in Texas, But Margin Has Narrowed, by Ross Ramsey".The Texas Tribune. RetrievedFebruary 23, 2016.
  13. ^"Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support"(PDF).
  14. ^"Texas Statewide Survey"(PDF). University of Texas / Texas Tribune. RetrievedJanuary 22, 2016.
  15. ^"Carson Leads Trump Slightly In Texas KTVT-CBS 11 Dixie Strategies Poll".cbslocal.com.
  16. ^"Texas Lyceum Poll Results: 2015 Texas Statewide Survey"(PDF).texaslyceum.org. RetrievedOctober 1, 2015.
  17. ^"TX Tribune"(PDF).amazonaws.com. RetrievedJuly 9, 2015.
  18. ^"Texas Statewide Survey"(PDF). RetrievedJanuary 22, 2016.
  19. ^UoT/Texas Tribune
  20. ^UoT/Texas Tribune
  21. ^UoT/Texas Tribune
  22. ^UoT/Texas Tribune
  23. ^The Green Papers
  24. ^Texas Secretary of State
  25. ^"Historical Elections - Official Results".
  26. ^"2016 Election Center".CNN. RetrievedJuly 18, 2016.
  27. ^"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
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