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The2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, which took place on February 9, was the second major vote of the cycle.Donald Trump was declared the winner with 35.2% of the popular vote and picked up 11 delegates, whileJohn Kasich emerged from a pack of candidates between 10 and 20% to capture second place with 15.8% of the vote and picked up four delegates.[1]
Donald Trump swept to victory due to overwhelming 42% support among voterswithout a college degree. John Kasich managed second place due to his relatively strong support amonghigher-income Republican voters.[2]
It occurred on the same day as theDemocratic primary.
Chris Christie,[3]Carly Fiorina,[4] andJim Gilmore dropped out of the race after poor showings in the primary.
Politico described the 2016 Republican primary in New Hampshire as a "topsy-turvy" campaign that saw "an all-out assault" on "establishment" politics.[5]
Donald Trump dominated the polling results,[6] withChris Christie,John Kasich,Marco Rubio, andJeb Bush vying to place second and emerge as the leading mainstream alternative to Trump and toTed Cruz.[7] In NovemberChris Christie gained the endorsement of theNew Hampshire Union Leader.[8] Candidates receiving the endorsement later received a boost of on average 8 points in the polls, but the endorsed candidate only won a Republican primary in half of the elections from 1980 to 2012.[9] But in late JanuaryThe Boston Globe and theConcord Monitor endorsed Kasich, leadingPolitico to dub him the winner of the "newspaper primary."[5]
Two major televised gatherings of major candidates took place during the 2015-16 campaign, both took place at theNew Hampshire Institute of Politics ofSaint Anselm College inGoffstown, New Hampshire.
The 2016 Voters First Presidential Forum was moderated by Jack Heath ofWGIR radio, who asked questions of each of the participating candidates based on a random draw.[10] Candidates each had three opportunities to speak: two rounds of questions, and a closing statement.[11] Topics of discussion during the forum were partially selected based on the results of an online voter survey.[12] The facilities were provided by theNew Hampshire Institute of Politics and Political Library ofSt. Anselm College. The forum was organized in response[13] to the top-ten invitation limitations placed byFox News andCNN on their first televised debates (see descriptions below).
Eleven of the candidates participated: Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio participated in the forum via satellite to avoid missinga vote.[14] Three major Republican candidates who did not participate were Donald Trump (who chose not to attend),[10] Jim Gilmore (who missed the cutoff deadline)[10] and Mike Huckabee (who was invited, but did not respond).[10]Mark Everson did not receive an invitation, albeit after a "serious look."[15][16]
TheVoters First forum was broadcast nationally[17] byC-SPAN[18] as the originating source media entity, beginning at 6:30 p.m.EDT and lasting[citation needed] from 7 to 9 p.m. The event was alsosimulcast and/or co-sponsored by television stationsKCRG-TV in Iowa,New England Cable News in the northeast,WBIN-TV in New Hampshire,[19]WLTX-TV in South Carolina, radio stationsNew Hampshire Public Radio,WGIR in New Hampshire,iHeartRadio on the internet (C-SPAN is also offering an online version of the broadcast), and newspapers theCedar Rapids Gazette in Iowa, theUnion Leader in New Hampshire, and thePost and Courier in Charleston South Carolina.[10] There was a live audience, with tickets to the event awarded via a lottery.[13]
One of the highlights of the campaign is when the nonrecognized candidates gather together to introduce themselves to the public at this event, which first was held in 1972.[20] Five candidates participated. They were Stephen Comley, Tim Cook, Walter Iwachiw,Andy Martin, and Joe Robinson.
| Candidate | Airtime[21] | Polls[22] |
|---|---|---|
| Trump | 15:32 | 33.2% |
| Cruz | 17:34 | 20.7% |
| Rubio | 18:14 | 13.3% |
| Carson | 8:46 | 7.8% |
| Bush | 12:30 | 4.5% |
| Christie | 12:53 | 3.0% |
| Kasich | 10:33 | 2.8% |
The eighth debate was held in New Hampshire, the first state to hold primaries, was organized byABC News and theIndependent Journal Review. It was scheduled to be held in theSt Anselm's College Institute of Politics.[23] The eighth debate did not feature an undercard event.[24]David Muir andMartha Raddatz were moderaters, along withWMUR political director Josh McElveen andMary Katherine Ham.[25]
To participate in the debate, a candidate must either have placed among the top 3 candidates in the popular vote of the Iowa caucus, or placed among the top 6 candidates in an average of New Hampshire or national polls recognized by ABC News. Only polls conducted no earlier than January 1 and released by February 4 were included in the averages.[26]
On February 4, 2016,Jeb Bush,Ben Carson,Chris Christie,Ted Cruz,John Kasich,Marco Rubio, andDonald Trump were invited to the debate.[27]Carly Fiorina andJim Gilmore were not invited as they did not meet the criteria.[28]
The debate was notable for Rubio's poor performance, where he repeated the same phrase four times, including once while Christie was criticizing him for making "canned" remarks.[29][30]
Twenty-six total candidates were on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary.[31] The followingnotable candidates were listed in five major polls and participated in authorized debates. U.S. SenatorLindsey Graham ofSouth Carolina and former GovernorsBobby Jindal ofLouisiana andGeorge Pataki ofNew York withdrew from the race, but remained on the ballot.
The following were listed in national polls and participated in at least one nationally televised debate.
| Candidate | Résumé | Portrait | popular vote | percentage | Delegates won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | CEO ofThe Trump Organization (campaign) | .jpg) | 100,406[1] | 35.3%[1] | 11 |
| John Kasich | Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative from Ohio 1983–2001; presidential candidate in2000 (campaign)[32][33] | .jpg) | 44,909[1] | 15.8%[1] | 4 |
| Ted Cruz | U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013;Solicitor General of Texas 2003–2008 (campaign)[34] |  | 33,189[1] | 11.7%[1] | 3 |
| Jeb Bush | Governor of Florida 1999–2007;Florida Secretary of Commerce 1987–1988 (campaign)[35][36] |  | 31,310[1] | 11%[1] | 3 |
| Marco Rubio | U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011;Florida Speaker of the House 2007–2008 (campaign)[37][38][39] |  | 30,032[1] | 10.6%[1] | 2 |
| Chris Christie | Governor of New Jersey since 2010, U.S. Attorney from the district of New Jersey (campaign)[40][41] | .jpg) | 21,069[1] | 7.4%[1] | none |
| Carly Fiorina | FormerHewlett-Packard CEO 1999–2005;nominee for Senate in California in 2010 (campaign)[42][43] | .jpg) | 11,706[1] | 4.1%[1] | none |
| Ben Carson | Author and former Director of PediatricNeurosurgery at theJohns Hopkins Hospital 1984–2013 (campaign)[44][45][46] |  | 6,509[1] | 2.3%[1] | none |
| Jim Gilmore | Presidential candidate in2008,Governor of Virginia 1998–2002 (campaign)[47][48] |  | 133[49] | 0.05%[49] | none |
The following were listed in national polls and participated in at least one nationally televised debate, but withdrew their candidacies before the New Hampshire primary.
| Candidate | Résumé | Portrait | popular vote | percentage | Delegates won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsey Graham | U.S. Senator fromSouth Carolina since 2003; U.S. Representative from South Carolina 1995–2003 (campaign)[50][51] |  | 70[49] | 0% | none (withdrew from the race earlier) |
| Mike Huckabee | Governor of Arkansas 1996–2007; presidential candidate in2008 (campaign)[52][53] |  | 215[49] | 0% | none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses) |
| Bobby Jindal | Governor of Louisiana since 2008; U.S. Representative from Louisiana 2005–2008 (campaign)[54][55] |  | 64[49] | 0% | none (withdrew from race earlier) |
| George Pataki | Governor of New York 1995–2006 (campaign)[56][57] |  | 80[49] | 0% | none (withdrew from race earlier) |
| Rand Paul | U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011 and Ophthalmologist (campaign)[58][59][60] |  | 1,900[49] | 0.67% | none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)[61] |
| Rick Santorum | U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania 1995–2007; U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania 1991–1995; presidential candidate in2012 (campaign)[62][63] |  | 155[49] | 0% | none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses) |
The following candidates have not been listed in major independent polls nor participated in Republican party sanctioned debates:
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| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Marco Rubio Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Ted Cruz Republican | John Kasich Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[93] | until February 9, 2016 | February 9, 2016 | 14.0% | 31.2% | 11.8% | 13.5% | Trump +17.2 |
| FiveThirtyEight[94] | until February 9, 2016 | February 9, 2016 | 15.7% | 26.8% | 12.0% | 15.2% | Trump +11.0 |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results[95] | February 9, 2016 | Donald Trump35.23% | John Kasich15.72% | Ted Cruz11.63% | Jeb Bush 10.96%,Marco Rubio 10.52%,Chris Christie 7.38%,Carly Fiorina 4.12%,Ben Carson 2.28%,Rand Paul 0.68%,Mike Huckabee 0.08%,Rick Santorum 0.06%,Jim Gilmore 0.05% |
| ARG[96] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 418 | February 7–8, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% | John Kasich 17% | Marco Rubio 14% | Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 6% |
| CNN/UNH/WMUR[97] Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 362 | February 4–8, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Marco Rubio 17% | Ted Cruz 14% | John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Undecided 7% |
| Gravis Marketing/ One America News[98] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 705 | February 7, 2016 | Donald Trump 28% | John Kasich 17% | Marco Rubio 15% | Jeb Bush 14%, Ted Cruz 11%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 3%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 0.5% |
| ARG[99] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 427 | February 6–7, 2016 | Donald Trump 30% | John Kasich 16% | Marco Rubio 16% | Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 9% |
| UMass Lowell/7 News[100] Margin of error: ± 5.13% Sample size: 464 | February 5–7, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% | Marco Rubio 13% | Ted Cruz 13% | Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 10%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Undecided 9% |
| Emerson College[101] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 686 | February 4–7, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Jeb Bush 16% | John Kasich 13% | Marco Rubio 12%, Ted Cruz 11%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 3%, |
| ARG[99] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 422 | February 5–6, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | John Kasich 17% | Marco Rubio 17% | Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 8% |
| Monmouth University[102] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 508 | February 4–6, 2016 | Donald Trump 30% | John Kasich 14% | Marco Rubio 13% | Jeb Bush 13%, Ted Cruz 12%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Other 1%, Undecided 3% |
| UMass Lowell/7 News[103] Margin of error: ± 4.82% Sample size: 516 | February 4–6, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% | Marco Rubio 14% | Ted Cruz 13% | Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Undecided 7% |
| CNN/UNH/WMUR[104] Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 362 | February 3–6, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% | Marco Rubio 16% | Ted Cruz 14% | John Kasich 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 6%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 2%, Someone Else 1%, Not Sure 6% |
| Franklin Pierce University/ RKM/Boston Herald[105] Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 433 | February 2–6, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Ted Cruz 16% | Marco Rubio 15% | John Kasich 11%, Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 2%, Unsure 3% |
| ARG[106] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 415 | February 4–5, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% | John Kasich 17% | Marco Rubio 16% | Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Undecided 6% |
| UMass Lowell/7 News[107] Margin of error: ± 4.86% Sample size: 501 | February 3–5, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% | Marco Rubio 14% | Ted Cruz 13% | John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Undecided 9% |
| Suffolk University/ Boston Globe[108] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500 | February 3–4, 2016 | Donald Trump 28.8% | Marco Rubio 19.4% | John Kasich 13% | Jeb Bush 9.8%, Ted Cruz 6.6%, Chris Christie 5.2%, Ben Carson 4.4%, Carly Fiorina 3.8%, Other 1%, Undecided 8% |
| ARG[109] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 420 | February 3–4, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% | Marco Rubio 15% | John Kasich 14% | Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Undecided 6% |
| MassINC/WBUR[110] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 410 | February 2–4, 2016 | Donald Trump 29% | Marco Rubio 12% | Ted Cruz 12% | Jeb Bush 9%, John Kasich 9%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 4%, Jim Gilmore <1% Other <1%, Won't Vote 1%, Don't Know 5% |
| UMass Lowell/7 News[111] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 500 | February 2–4, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% | Marco Rubio 15% | Ted Cruz 14% | Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 6% |
| CNN/UNH/WMUR[112] Margin of error: ± 6.8% Sample size: 209 | February 2–4, 2016 | Donald Trump 29% | Marco Rubio 18% | Ted Cruz 13% | John Kasich 12%, Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 2%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone Else 2%, Not Sure 8% |
| NBC News/WSJ/Marist[113] Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 653 | February 2–3, 2016 | Donald Trump 30% | Marco Rubio 17% | Ted Cruz 15% | John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Other 1%, Undecided 7% |
| ARG[114] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 600 | February 2–3, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% | Marco Rubio 14% | John Kasich 13% | Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 2%, Undecided 8% |
| UMass Lowell/7 News[115] Margin of error: ± 4.87% Sample size: 487 | February 1–3, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% | Marco Rubio 15% | Ted Cruz 14% | Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Other 8% |
| Harper Polling[116] Margin of error: ± 4.75% Sample size: 425 | February 1–2, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Jeb Bush 14% | John Kasich 12% | Marco Rubio 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 0%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 8% |
| UMass Lowell/7 News[117] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 502 | January 31– February 2, 2016 | Donald Trump 38% | Ted Cruz 14% | Marco Rubio 12% | Jeb Bush 9%, John Kasich 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Unsure 4% |
| UMass Amherst/ WBZ-TV/YouGov[118] Margin of error: ± 7.1% Sample size: 390 | January 29– February 2, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% | Marco Rubio 15% | John Kasich 11% | Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Other 8%, Unsure 3% |
| ARG[119] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600 | January 29–31, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% | John Kasich 16% | Marco Rubio 11% | Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Undecided 6% |
| UMass Lowell/7 News[120] Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: 461 | January 29–31, 2016 | Donald Trump 38% | Ted Cruz 12% | John Kasich 9% | Jeb Bush 9%, Marco Rubio 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Rand Paul 3%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Other 2%, Not Sure 5% |
| CNN/UNH/WMUR[121] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 409 | January 27–30, 2016 | Donald Trump 30% | Ted Cruz 12% | Marco Rubio 11% | John Kasich 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 3%, Not Sure 10% |
| Franklin Pierce/RKM/ Boston Herald[122] Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 439 | January 26–30, 2016 | Donald Trump 38% | Ted Cruz 13% | Jeb Bush 10% | Marco Rubio 10%, John Kasich 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Unsure 2% |
| Suffolk University[123] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500 | January 25–27, 2016 | Donald Trump 26.6% | John Kasich 12% | Ted Cruz 11.8% | Jeb Bush 11.2%, Marco Rubio 9.6%, Chris Christie 5.6%, Ben Carson 4.8%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 1.6%, Mike Huckabee 0.4%, Jim Gilmore 0.2%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 0.4%, Undecided 11.8% |
| Adrian Gray Consulting[124] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 583 | January 25–27, 2016 | Donald Trump 27% | Marco Rubio 15% | Ted Cruz 13% | John Kasich 12%, Jeb Bush 11%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Don't know 5% |
| Emerson College[125] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 373 | January 25–26, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% | Jeb Bush 18% | John Kasich 14% | Marco Rubio 9%, Ted Cruz 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 1% |
| ARG[126] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600 | January 23–25, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | John Kasich 17% | Ted Cruz 12% | Marco Rubio 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 6% |
| Franklin Pierce/RKM/Boston Herald[127] Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 444 | January 20–24, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% | Ted Cruz 14% | John Kasich 12% | Jeb Bush 9%, Marco Rubio 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 1%, Unsure 3% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[128] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 612 | January 17–23, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Ted Cruz 12% | Marco Rubio/ John Kasich11% | Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 5% |
| Fox News[129] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 401 | January 19–21, 2016 | Donald Trump 31% | Ted Cruz 14% | Marco Rubio 13% | John Kasich 9%, Chris Christie 7%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, None of the above 1%, Don't know 5% |
| CBS/YouGov[130] Margin of error: ± 6.2% Sample size: 476 | January 19–21, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% | Ted Cruz 16% | Marco Rubio 14% | John Kasich 10%, Chris Christie 7%, Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0% |
| ARG[126] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600 | January 15–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 27% | John Kasich 20% | Marco Rubio 10% | Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 5%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 7% |
| CNN/UNH/WMUR[131] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 414 | January 13–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% | Ted Cruz 14% | Marco Rubio 10% | Jeb Bush 10%, Rand Paul 6%, Chris Christie 6%, John Kasich 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Don't know 6% |
| Mason-Dixon/AARP[132] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 503 | January 12–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% | Marco Rubio 14% | John Kasich 13% | Chris Christie 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ted Cruz 8%, Carly Fiorina 6%, Ben Carson 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Undecided 4% |
| ARG[133] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600 | January 7–10, 2016 | Donald Trump 25% | Marco Rubio/ John Kasich14% | Chris Christie 10% | Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 8% |
| Monmouth University[134] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 414 | January 7–10, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% | John Kasich/ Ted Cruz14% | Marco Rubio 12% | Chris Christie 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 3% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[135] Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 569 | January 2–7, 2016 | Donald Trump 30% | Marco Rubio 14% | Chris Christie 12% | Ted Cruz 10%, John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Rand Paul 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee <1%, Other <1%, Undecided 5% |
| NH1/Reach[136] Margin of error: ± 3.1% Sample size: 1000 | January 7, 2016 | Donald Trump 31.7% | Jeb Bush 11.9% | John Kasich 11.8% | Chris Christie 11.0%, Ted Cruz 9.7%, Marco Rubio 8.9%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Ben Carson 3.8%, Rand Paul 3.0%, Rick Santorum 2.6%, Mike Huckabee 1.0% |
| Fox News[137] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 414 | January 4–7, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% | Marco Rubio 15% | Ted Cruz 12% | Jeb Bush 9%, John Kasich 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[138] Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 515 | January 4–6, 2016 | Donald Trump 29% | Marco Rubio 15% | Chris Christie/ John Kasich11% | Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 2% |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 100,735 | 35.23% | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| John Kasich | 44,932 | 15.72% | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Ted Cruz | 33,244 | 11.63% | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Jeb Bush | 31,341 | 10.96% | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Marco Rubio | 30,071 | 10.52% | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Chris Christie | 21,089 | 7.38% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina | 11,774 | 4.12% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson | 6,527 | 2.28% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul(withdrawn) | 1,930 | 0.68% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 2,912 | 1.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee(withdrawn) | 216 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andy Martin | 202 | 0.07% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum(withdrawn) | 160 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Gilmore | 134 | 0.05% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Witz | 104 | 0.04% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Pataki(withdrawn) | 79 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lindsey Graham(withdrawn) | 73 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Andrews Cullison | 56 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Timothy Cook | 55 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Jindal(withdrawn) | 53 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Frank Lynch | 47 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Robinson | 44 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Bradley Comley | 32 | 0.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chomi Prag | 16 | 0.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Daniel Dyas | 15 | 0.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen John McCarthy | 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Iwachiw | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Glenn Huey | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Drozd | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Lawrence Mann | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Peter Messina | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 285,916 | 100.00% | 23 | 0 | 23 |
| Source:The Green Papers | |||||
Note: Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 10% or more of the vote proportionally. Of the 25 candidate/hopefuls, five candidates garnered delegates.
| County | Donald Trump | John Kasich | Ted Cruz | Jeb Bush | Marco Rubio | Chris Christie | All Other Candidates[a] | Total | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Belknap | 5,508 | 35.16% | 2,464 | 15.73% | 2,019 | 12.89% | 1,741 | 11.11% | 1,511 | 9.64% | 1,002 | 6.40% | 1,422 | 9.07% | 15,667 |
| Carroll | 4,170 | 33.95% | 2,279 | 18.55% | 1,357 | 11.05% | 1,240 | 10.09% | 1,430 | 11.64% | 883 | 7.19% | 925 | 7.54% | 12,284 |
| Cheshire | 4,533 | 33.42% | 2,177 | 16.05% | 1,888 | 13.92% | 1,500 | 11.06% | 1,237 | 9.12% | 754 | 5.56% | 1,473 | 10.87% | 13,562 |
| Coos | 2,184 | 36.99% | 943 | 15.97% | 601 | 10.18% | 562 | 9.52% | 614 | 10.40% | 355 | 6.01% | 645 | 10.93% | 5,904 |
| Grafton | 4,897 | 29.36% | 3,475 | 20.83% | 1,726 | 10.35% | 1,864 | 11.17% | 1,926 | 11.55% | 1,068 | 6.40% | 1,725 | 10.35% | 16,681 |
| Hillsborough | 29,328 | 34.89% | 12,517 | 14.89% | 9,606 | 11.43% | 9,584 | 11.40% | 8,824 | 10.50% | 7,155 | 8.51% | 7,049 | 8.40% | 84,063 |
| Merrimack | 10,959 | 33.02% | 6,178 | 18.61% | 3,781 | 11.39% | 3,814 | 11.49% | 3,062 | 9.23% | 2,376 | 7.16% | 3,022 | 9.11% | 33,192 |
| Rockingham | 28,718 | 38.73% | 10,370 | 13.98% | 7,991 | 10.78% | 7,748 | 10.45% | 8,074 | 10.89% | 5,783 | 7.80% | 5,474 | 7.37% | 74,158 |
| Strafford | 7,358 | 33.40% | 3,195 | 14.50% | 3,324 | 15.09% | 2,444 | 11.10% | 2,505 | 11.37% | 1,225 | 5.56% | 1,976 | 8.97% | 22,027 |
| Sullivan | 3,080 | 36.73% | 1,334 | 15.91% | 951 | 11.34% | 844 | 10.07% | 888 | 10.59% | 488 | 5.82% | 800 | 9.54% | 8,385 |
| Totals | 100,735 | 35.23% | 44,932 | 15.71% | 33,244 | 11.63% | 31,341 | 10.96% | 30,071 | 10.52% | 21,089 | 7.38% | 24,511 | 8.58% | 285,923 |
| 2016 New Hampshire Republican Primary by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[140] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Cruz | Trump | Rubio | Kasich | Bush | % of total vote |
| Total vote | 11.6 | 35.2 | 10.5 | 15.7 | 11.0 | 90% |
| Gender | ||||||
| Men | 12 | 38 | 9 | 16 | 8 | 52% |
| Women | 11 | 33 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 48% |
| Age | ||||||
| 17–29 years old | 17 | 38 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 15% |
| 30–44 years old | 12 | 36 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 17% |
| 45–64 years old | 11 | 36 | 8 | 18 | 11 | 49% |
| 65+ years old | 9 | 31 | 11 | 19 | 15 | 19% |
| Income | ||||||
| Under $30,000 | 14 | 39 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 10% |
| $30,000 - $49,999 | 12 | 40 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 16% |
| $50,000 - $99,999 | 12 | 37 | 10 | 16 | 11 | 33% |
| $100,000 - $199,999 | 10 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 11 | 31% |
| Over $200,000 | 9 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 13 | 10% |
| Education | ||||||
| College Graduate | 11 | 30 | 12 | 19 | 12 | 53% |
| Non-college | 13 | 42 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 47% |
| Issue regarded as most important | ||||||
| Immigration | 21 | 44 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 15% |
| Economy | 6 | 30 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 33% |
| Terrorism | 12 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 24% |
| Government spending | 13 | 28 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 26% |
| Area type | ||||||
| Urban | 12 | 37 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 10% |
| Suburban | 11 | 37 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 54% |
| Rural | 12 | 33 | 11 | 19 | 11 | 37% |
| Religion | ||||||
| Evangelical | 24 | 28 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 23% |
| Non-Evangelical | 8 | 38 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 77% |
| Gun household | ||||||
| Yes | 12 | 40 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 57% |
| No | 9 | 28 | 15 | 21 | 13 | 43% |
According toexit polls byEdison Research, Trump'slandslide in New Hampshire could be attributed to strong support fromnon-collegewhites and voters holding amoderate political ideology.[140] Trump amassed the largest margin of victory in aNew Hampshire Republican primary since2000, whenJohn McCain upsetGeorge W. Bush. In his victory speech, Trump promised, "I am going to be the greatestjobs president that God ever created," and that he will "knock the hell out ofISIS."[141] Trump's tough-on-terror message resonated in the state, where 65% of Republican voters supported his proposedMuslim ban.[140]
On Monday, August 3, candidates ... will be broadcast live on C-SPAN at 7 p.m. Topics for the forum will be determined by you, the voters. Please choose the top five topics you would like to see discussed. ...from these [five] identical drop-down lists: Iran nuclear deal, Homeland Security (Terrorism), Defense, International Trade, Immigration, Russia, Climate change, Crime, Drugs/heroin, Death penalty, Euthanasia, U.S. debt/deficit, Taxes, Economy and jobs, Campaign spending Reform, Social Security, Medicare, Healthcare/Obamacare, Gay marriage, Religious freedom, Privacy/surveillance, Education/Common Core, Abortion, 1st Amendment, 2nd Amendment, Race.
The Union Leader considered allowing Mark Everson, the commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service from 2003 to 2007, to take part. Everson announced his candidacy in March. "We had discussions with Mark Everson about whether or not he would qualify. We didn't want to do what Fox did, which was cut the field arbitrarily," Spiner said. "We took a serious look to see if we were missing something here, and we decided we weren't."
State and district results of the2016 United States presidential election | ||
|---|---|---|
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