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2016 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses

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2016 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses

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February 20, 2016 (2016-02-20)
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43Democratic National Convention delegates
(35 pledged, 8 unpledged)
 
CandidateHillary ClintonBernie Sanders
Home stateNew YorkVermont
Delegate count2015
Percentage52.64%47.29%

Election results by county.

Clinton

  50 – 60%
  60 – 70%

Sanders

  40 – 50%
  50 – 60%
  60 – 70%
  80 – 90%

Tie

  50%

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The2016 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses was held on Saturday February 20 in the U.S. state ofNevada, traditionally marking theDemocratic Party's third nominating contest in their series ofpresidential primaries ahead of the2016 presidential election. TheRepublican Party held itsSouth Carolina primary on the same day, while their ownNevada caucuses took place on February 23.

With all other candidates having dropped out of the race ahead of the Nevada caucuses, the two remaining candidates wereBernie Sanders andHillary Clinton.[1]

Process

[edit]
Tension arises at the Washoe County Democratic Convention 2016, between Sanders supporters in front and Clinton supporters behind.

Of the total number of 43 delegates the Nevada Democratic Party may send to the2016 Democratic National Convention, 35 are pledged and 8 are unpledged.

The delegate selection process is a system with three levels:

  1. The first step in the delegate selection process were the precinct caucuses on February 20, which elected about 12,000 delegates to the county conventions.
  2. At the county conventions on April 2, the county delegates selected about 4,000 delegates to the state convention.
  3. At the state convention on May 14–15, the final 35 pledged delegates to the National Convention will be selected. 23 of them are allocated proportionally based on congressional district results, whereas the remaining 12 are allocated based on the state convention as a whole.

State convention

[edit]

The state convention was held in May as the final stage of the delegate selection process. Supporters of Sanders believed that the convention rules, which had been largely the same for the previous 8 years, gave an unfair amount of power to the convention chair. The rules specifically lay out that all convention votes must be done by voice vote, and that only the convention chair can declare the winner or call for a more specific method of voting among the thousands of delegates. During the vote the convention chair, Roberta Lange accepted the "yeas" even though the "nays" were louder than the "yeas" in the room. Both preliminary and final delegate counts showed that Clinton supporters outnumbered Sanders supporters in the room, though many Sanders delegates had left after Lange's decision and did not stay to be counted in the final count. When Lange accepted the "yeas", some Sanders supporters confronted Lange and other members of the party's executive board on the main stage. The event was quickly shut down after that. Casino spokeswoman Jennifer Forkis said the event ran over its allotted time by about four hours, meaning security hired for the event would soon leave their shifts. "Without adequate security personnel, and in consultation with the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department and event organizers, a decision was made that it was in the best interest of everyone in attendance to end the event," Forkis said in a statement.[2] An additional 10 to 15 Las Vegas Metropolitan police officers had been deployed to the event, with some forming a protective barrier in front of the stage after the proceedings were declared closed by party officials.[3][4]

The Sanders campaign alleged that the leadership of the Democratic Party "used its power to prevent a fair and transparent process from taking place."[5]

Debates and forums

[edit]

October 2015 debate in Las Vegas

[edit]
Main article:First Democratic Party presidential debate, October 2015 in Las Vegas, Nevada

On October 13, 2015, the Democratic Party's very first debate was held at theWynn Hotel inLas Vegas. Hosted byAnderson Cooper, it aired onCNN and was broadcast on radio byWestwood One. Participants were the candidatesHillary Clinton,Bernie Sanders,Jim Webb,Martin O'Malley, andLincoln Chafee. It was the first and only debate appearance of Chafee and Webb, who ended their campaigns on October 23 and October 20, respectively.

February 2016 forum in Las Vegas

[edit]
See also:2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums

On February 18, MSNBC and Telemundo hosted a forum in Las Vegas.

Opinion polling

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries

Delegate count: 35 Pledged, 8UnpledgedWinner: Hillary Clinton
Caucus date: February 20, 2016

Poll sourceDate1st2ndOther
Caucus results[6]February 20, 2016Hillary Clinton
52.6%
Bernie Sanders
47.3%
Other
0.1%
Gravis Marketing[7]

Margin of error: ± 4.0
Sample size: 516

February 14–15, 2016Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
47%
CNN/ORC[8]

Margin of error: ± 6.0
Sample size: 282

February 10–15, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
6%
Washington Free Beacon/TPC Research[9]

Margin of error: ± 2.9
Sample size: 1,236

February 8–10, 2016Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
45%
Undecided 9%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Gravis Marketing[10]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 326

December 23–27, 2015Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Martin O'Malley
1%
Unsure 16%
CNN/ORC[11]

Margin of error: ± 6%
Sample size: 253

October 3–10, 2015Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Joe Biden
12%
Gravis Marketing[12]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 416

July 12–13, 2015Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
18%
Elizabeth Warren
8%
Joe Biden 5%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Unsure 12%
Gravis Marketing[13]

Margin of error: ± 6%
Sample size: 324

March 27, 2015Hillary Clinton
61%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Bernie Sanders
7%
Joe Biden 3%, Al Gore 3%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 0%, Unsure 10%
Gravis Marketing[14]

Margin of error: ± 6%
Sample size: 324

February 21–22, 2015Hillary Clinton
58%
Elizabeth Warren
20%
Joe Biden
8%
Bernie Sanders 4%, Jim Webb 3%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Undecided 7%


Results

[edit]

Primary date: February 20, 2016
County conventions: April 2, 2016
State convention: May 14, 2016
National delegates: 43

Nevada Democratic caucuses, February 20, 2016
CandidateCounty delegatesEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton6,44052.64%20424
Bernie Sanders5,78547.29%15116
Uncommitted80.07%033
Total12,233100%35843
Source:[15]
Nevada Democratic county conventions, April 2, 2016
CandidateState delegatesEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Bernie Sanders2,12455.23%17118
Hillary Clinton1,72244.77%18422
Uncommitted00.00%033
Total100%35843
Source:The Moderate Voice[16]
Nevada Democratic state conventions, May 14, 2016
CandidateState delegatesEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton1,69550.49%20424
Bernie Sanders1,66249.51%15116
Uncommitted00.00%033
Total100%35843
Source:Nevada Democrats[17]

Results by county

[edit]
CountyClintonVotesSandersVotes
Carson City49.11%8350.89%86
Churchill50.00%4650.00%46
Clark54.82%4,88945.14%4,026
Douglas54.14%8545.86%72
Elko43.18%3856.82%50
Esmeralda31.82%768.18%15
Eureka13.64%386.36%19
Humboldt33.75%2766.25%53
Lander28.99%2069.57%48
Lincoln60.32%3839.68%25
Lyon47.62%8052.38%88
Mineral53.42%3946.58%34
Nye58.75%9440.63%65
Pershing47.76%3249.25%33
Storey47.95%3552.05%38
Washoe45.70%87754.25%1,041
White Pine50.54%4749.46%46
Total52.64%6,44047.29%5,785

Source:[18]

Analysis

[edit]

Clinton won the popular vote handily in the Nevada caucus, after a rough start to the primary season. With a razor-thin victory inIowa and a crushing defeat inNew Hampshire, Clinton rebounded to a five-point-win in Nevada aided by late campaigning among casino workers. AsThe New York Times describes, "At a caucus at the famedCaesars Palace,blackjack dealers, pit bosses, cooks and housekeepers excitedly declared their support for the former secretary of state."[19]

Clinton had campaigned heavily in the state, airing an ad in which she comforted a youngLatina girl who was worried her parents would bedeported. Clinton's message appeared to resonate withHispanic andAfrican American voters, with Clinton winning by large margins in many diverse neighborhoods in populousClark County, especially in caucuses inLas Vegas.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2016 Candidates". NVDems. June 20, 2014. Archived fromthe original on March 31, 2016. RetrievedMay 21, 2016.
  2. ^"PolitiFact | Allegations of fraud and misconduct at Nevada Democratic convention unfounded".
  3. ^ALANA ABRAMSON (May 17, 2016)."Ugly Scenes at Nevada Convention Spark Concern Among DNC Officials". ABC News.
  4. ^Mike Heuer (May 16, 2016)."Melee at Democratic Convention in Nevada". Courthouse News.
  5. ^Jessica Taylor (May 17, 2016)."Bernie Sanders Defends Supporters After Rowdy Protests In Nevada". NPR.
  6. ^Caucus results
  7. ^"Nevada Polling Results". RetrievedFebruary 18, 2016.
  8. ^"Nevada primary: CNN/ORC poll full results"(PDF). RetrievedFebruary 17, 2016.
  9. ^"Nevada Democratic Caucus Poll"(PDF).
  10. ^Gravis Marketing
  11. ^"South Carolina, Nevada CNN polls find Clinton far ahead". RetrievedOctober 12, 2015.
  12. ^Gravis Marketing
  13. ^"Nevada poll: Sandoval early favorite to succeed Reid; Cruz surges to lead pack with Walker". Gravismarketing.com. RetrievedJuly 9, 2015.
  14. ^Gravis Marketing
  15. ^The Green Papers
  16. ^Gill, Kathy (April 3, 2016)."What just happened in Nevada? Did Sanders suddenly beat Clinton?".The Moderate Voice. RetrievedApril 5, 2016.
  17. ^"FINAL ALLOCATION OF PLEDGED NATIONAL DELEGATES FOR NV DEMS".Nevada Dem. May 14, 2016. RetrievedMay 14, 2016.
  18. ^"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  19. ^Chozick, Amy; Healy, Patrick (February 20, 2016)."Hillary Clinton Beats Bernie Sanders in Nevada Caucuses".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedOctober 21, 2016.
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