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2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

← 2012
November 4, 2014
2016 →
 
NomineeRyan ZinkeJohn Lewis
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote203,871148,690
Percentage55.41%40.41%

County results
Zinke:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Lewis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

Steve Daines
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ryan Zinke
Republican

Elections in Montana
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
Montana's at-large congressional district

The2014 congressional election in Montana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect theU.S. representative fromMontana's at-large congressional district. Between 1993 and 2023, Montana had oneat-large seat in the House.

IncumbentRepublican CongressmanSteve Daines was first elected in 2012. Instead of running for re-election, he successfully ran for theU.S. Senate electionin 2014.[1] Representatives are elected for two-year terms; the elected will serve in the114th United States Congress from January 3, 2015, until January 3, 2017.

Republican primary

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Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brad
Johnson
Matthew
Rosendale
Corey
Stapleton
Ryan
Zinke
OtherUndecided
PPP[12]November 15–17, 2013469±4.5%20%9%32%9%31%

Primary results

[edit]
Republican primary results[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRyan Zinke43,76633.25
RepublicanCorey Stapleton38,59129.32
RepublicanMatt Rosendale37,96528.84
RepublicanElsie Arntzen9,0116.85
RepublicanDrew Turiano2,2901.74
Total votes131,623100

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for the seatin 2010[16]

Declined

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Endorsements

[edit]
John Lewis

Primary results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJohn Lewis42,58859.84
DemocraticJohn Driscoll28,58040.16
Total votes71,168100

Libertarian nomination

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Independents

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Candidates

[edit]

Withdrawn

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General election

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Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ryan
Zinke (R)
John
Lewis (D)
Mike
Fellows (L)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing[31]October 23–24, 2014604± 4%53%41%6%
The MSU-Billings Poll[32]October 6–11, 2014410± 5%40%33%2%25%
Gravis Marketing[33]September 29–30, 2014535± 4%51%41%8%
Vox Populi Polling[34]August 3–4, 2014798± 3.5%44%37%19%
Gravis Marketing[35]July 20–22, 2014741± 4%47%35%6%11%
Public Policy Polling[36]November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%37%32%30%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brad
Johnson (R)
John
Lewis (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[36]November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%43%32%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Matthew
Rosendale (R)
John
Lewis (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[36]November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%37%32%31%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Corey
Stapleton (R)
John
Lewis (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[36]November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%44%31%25%

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[37]Likely RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg[38]Safe ROctober 24, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]Likely ROctober 30, 2014
RCPLikely RNovember 2, 2014
Daily Kos Elections[40]Safe RNovember 4, 2014

Results

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Montana's at-large congressional district, 2014[41]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanRyan Zinke203,87155.41%+2.16%
DemocraticJohn Lewis148,69040.41%−2.13%
LibertarianMike Fellows15,4024.18%+0.15%
Total votes367,963100.00%N/A
Republicanhold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^Raju, Manu (November 5, 2013)."Steve Daines to announce Senate bid".POLITICO. RetrievedNovember 5, 2013.
  2. ^"Conservative state senator to run for U.S. House".Great Falls Tribune. January 25, 2014. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2014.
  3. ^Johnson, Charles S. (October 15, 2013)."Rosendale launches House race".Independent Record. RetrievedOctober 21, 2013.
  4. ^Trygstad, Kyle (September 3, 2013)."Montana Senate Field Now Cleared for Daines #MTSEN".Roll Call. RetrievedOctober 21, 2013.
  5. ^Johnson, Charles S. (November 22, 2013)."Helena man becomes 5th Republican in U.S. House".Missoulian. RetrievedDecember 5, 2013.
  6. ^Lutey, Tom (October 21, 2013)."Whitefish's Zinke announces GOP candidacy for U.S. House".Missoulian. RetrievedOctober 21, 2013.
  7. ^"Former GOP Secretary of State Brad Johnson to run for PSC".Helenair. January 30, 2014.
  8. ^"Steve Daines Announces 2014 Senate Run".Huffington Post. November 6, 2013.
  9. ^Catlett, Ron (December 4, 2013)."Champ Edmunds Will Challenge Daines in Montana GOP Senate Primary". Mediatrackers. Archived from the original on March 26, 2014. RetrievedDecember 5, 2013.
  10. ^"Rehberg will not run in 2014". MTN News. January 13, 2014. Archived fromthe original on January 15, 2014. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2014.
  11. ^ab"Formerly 'all in' House candidate now won't run". Billings Gazette. October 3, 2013.
  12. ^PPP
  13. ^ab"2014 Statewide Montana Primary Election Canvas"(PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on July 28, 2014. RetrievedJuly 23, 2014.
  14. ^Johnson, Charles S. (March 7, 2014)."Former Democratic lawmaker John Driscoll to run for U.S. House".Billings Gazette. RetrievedMarch 9, 2014.
  15. ^"Democrat John Lewis files to run for state's U.S. House seat". The Missoulian. August 26, 2013.
  16. ^"Pat Williams challenges trio of Senate candidates". KAJ18.com. December 18, 2013. Archived fromthe original on December 19, 2013. RetrievedDecember 19, 2013.
  17. ^abc"Speculation: Democrats For U.S. House". Montana Street Fighter. May 26, 2013. RetrievedAugust 7, 2013.
  18. ^"U.S. House race hinges on Daines' decision". Ravalli Republic. October 5, 2013. RetrievedOctober 5, 2013.
  19. ^"Missoula Mayor Engen ready for next term". KPAX.com. November 6, 2013. RetrievedNovember 8, 2013.[permanent dead link]
  20. ^"Race For U.S. House In MT Could Be Worth Watching". Montana Street Fighter. July 22, 2013. RetrievedAugust 7, 2013.
  21. ^Rulon Herman, Malia (December 4, 2013)."Former Montana legislator Gillan named HHS regional head".Great Falls Tribune. RetrievedDecember 11, 2013.
  22. ^"Juneau latest Montana Dem to reject US Senate run".Missoulian. August 5, 2013. RetrievedAugust 7, 2013.
  23. ^"Democrat Lindeen says no to run for U.S. Senate seat". The Missoulian. July 16, 2013.
  24. ^"Growing number of Montana Democrats consider U.S. Senate run". missoulian.com. July 15, 2013.
  25. ^"Montana Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D) to run for Senate".The Washington Post. October 3, 2013.
  26. ^abcTrygstad, Kyle (August 13, 2013)."Ex-Congressman Says No to Montana Senate Bid".Roll Call.
  27. ^"After spending the past several weeks speaking..." Facebook. September 9, 2013.
  28. ^abc"Top Montana Democrats endorse Lewis for U.S. House".Great Falls Tribune. December 4, 2013. RetrievedDecember 11, 2013.
  29. ^Johnson, Charles S. (March 10, 2014)."Missoula's Edmunds, Cundiff file for U.S. Senate race; Fellows runs for House".Missoulian. RetrievedMarch 11, 2014.
  30. ^"White Wolf dropping out of House race".Montana Wacko Birds. January 10, 2014. RetrievedJanuary 13, 2014.
  31. ^Gravis Marketing
  32. ^The MSU-Billings Poll
  33. ^Gravis Marketing
  34. ^Vox Populi Polling
  35. ^Gravis Marketing
  36. ^abcdPublic Policy Polling
  37. ^"2014 House Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. RetrievedNovember 3, 2014.
  38. ^"2014 House Ratings (October 24, 2014)".House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedOctober 24, 2014.
  39. ^"2014 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. April 10, 2014. RetrievedApril 11, 2014.
  40. ^"Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2014". Daily Kos Elections. RetrievedNovember 4, 2014.
  41. ^"2014 STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION CANVASS"(PDF). Montana Secretary of State. November 4, 2014. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2018.

External links

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Official campaign websites

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