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2014 Iowa gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

See also:2014 United States gubernatorial elections

2014 Iowa gubernatorial election
← 2010
November 4, 2014
2018 →
 
NomineeTerry BranstadJack Hatch
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Running mateKim ReynoldsMonica Vernon
Popular vote666,032420,787
Percentage58.99%37.27%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Branstad:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Hatch:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     40–50%
Governor before election

Terry Branstad
Republican

ElectedGovernor

Terry Branstad
Republican

Elections in Iowa
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The2014 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014. Republican incumbentTerry Branstad ran for reelection to a sixth overall and second consecutive four-year term.[1] Branstad went on to win a historic sixth term as governor by defeating Democratic challenger and State SenatorJack Hatch, and on December 14, 2015, he became the longest-serving governor in American history. He won 59.1% of the popular vote to Hatch's 37.3%, and carried every county in the state exceptJohnson, home toIowa City and theUniversity of Iowa. This was one of the nine Republican-held governorships up for election in a state thatBarack Obama won in the2012 presidential election.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Terry
Branstad		Tom
Hoefling		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[3]May 15–19, 2014303± 3.3%66%12%22%
Loras College[4]April 7–8, 2014600± 4.0%80%4%14%
Suffolk University[5]April 3–8, 2014224± 6.6%70%9%21%
Public Policy Polling[6]February 20–23, 2014283± 5.8%70%11%18%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanTerry Branstad (incumbent)129,71283.00
RepublicanTom Hoefling26,28416.82
RepublicanWrite-In2790.18
Total votes156,275100

Democratic primary

[edit]

Narcisse was disqualified from appearing on the ballot in the Democratic primary following a ruling by theIowa Supreme Court[8] that upheld a lower court decision that held that Narcisse had not submitted enough valid signatures to be placed on the ballot for the primary election. Narcisse continued his campaign and declared his intention to run for the nomination as a write-in candidate.[9] When he was unsuccessful, he announced that he would be running in the general election as the nominee of the Iowa Party.[10][11]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jack Hatch
Tyler Olson

Individuals

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJack Hatch60,40499.26
DemocraticWrite-in4480.74
Total votes60,852100

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
  • Jim Hennager (New Independent Party), administrator, former city councillor andReform Party nominee for governorin 1998[37]
  • Running mate: Mary Krieg
  • Lee Hieb (Libertarian), orthopedic surgeon[38]
  • Running mate: Ryan Ketelsen, businessman[38]
  • Running mate: Michael Richards, semi-retired businessman[39]

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[40]Likely RNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41]Safe RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[42]Safe RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[43]Safe RNovember 3, 2014

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Terry
Branstad (R)		Jack
Hatch (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[44]November 1–3, 20141,265± 2.8%51%40%5%[45]5%
54%43%—4%
Quinnipiac University[46]October 28–November 2, 2014778± 3.5%52%41%2%6%
Iowa Poll[47]October 28–31, 2014701± 3.7%59%35%2%4%
YouGov[48]October 25–31, 20141,112± 4.4%49%35%4%13%
Fox News[49]October 28–30, 2014911± 3%53%36%5%6%
Reuters/Ipsos[50]October 23–29, 20141,129± 3.3%57%34%4%5%
Quinnipiac[51]October 22–27, 2014817± 3.4%56%37%2%5%
Loras College[52]October 21–24, 20141,121± 2.93%55%34%2%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[53]October 16–23, 20142,322± 3%50%37%0%13%
NBC News/Marist[54]October 18–22, 2014772 LV± 3.5%59%36%2%4%
1,052 RV± 3%58%34%2%6%
Gravis Marketing[55]October 20–21, 2014964± 3%53%43%—4%
Monmouth University[56]October 18–21, 2014423± 4.8%58%37%3%2%
Quinnipiac University[57]October 15–21, 2014964± 3.2%55%37%2%5%
Suffolk University[58]October 11–14, 2014500± 4.4%54%37%3%[59]7%
Quinnipiac University[60]October 8–13, 2014967± 3.2%54%39%1%6%
The Iowa Poll[61]October 3–8, 20141,000± 3.1%54%39%—4%
Magellan[62]October 3, 20141,299± 2.8%55%39%—7%
NBC News/Marist[63]September 27–October 1, 2014778 LV± 3.5%58%36%1%5%
1,093 RV± 3%58%35%1%6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[64]September 20–October 1, 20142,359± 2%52%39%0%9%
Gravis Marketing[65]September 29–30, 2014522± 4%51%43%—6%
Public Policy Polling[66]September 25–28, 20141,192± 2.8%50%36%4%[67]9%
52%38%—10%
Iowa Poll[68]September 21–24, 2014546± 4.2%48%34%6%[69]12%
Rasmussen Reports[70]September 17–18, 2014750± 4%46%40%3%10%
FOX News[71]September 14–16, 2014600± 4%50%37%4%8%
Quinnipiac[72]September 10–15, 20141,167± 2.9%60%37%1%3%
Loras College[73]September 2–5, 20141,200± 2.82%56%34%—11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[74]August 18–September 2, 20141,764± 3%51%38%1%10%
Suffolk[75]August 23–26, 2014500± 4%47%35%2%[76]16%
Public Policy Polling[77]August 22–24, 2014915± 3.2%48%35%5%[45]12%
50%37%—13%
Rasmussen Reports[70]August 11–12, 2014750± 4%52%35%6%7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[78]July 5–24, 20142,044± 2.7%51%40%1%8%
Gravis Marketing[79]July 17–18, 20141,179± 3%50%42%—9%
NBC News/Marist[80]July 7–13, 20141,599± 2.5%53%38%1%9%
Quinnipiac[81]June 12–16, 20141,277± 2.7%47%38%1%14%
Vox Populi Polling[82]June 4–5, 2014665± 3.8%51%40%—9%
Loras College[83]June 4–5, 2014600± 4%52%38%—11%
Rasmussen Reports[70]June 4–5, 2014750± 4%49%40%2%8%
Global Strategy Group[84]May 13–15, 2014602± 4%47%40%—13%
Public Policy Polling[3]May 15–19, 2014914± 3.3%48%40%—12%
Victory Enterprises[85]April 30–May 1, 2014400± 4.9%48%33%—20%
Hickman Analytics[86]April 24–30500± 4.4%50%40%—10%
Vox Populi Polling[87]April 22–24, 2014600± 4%45%43%—12%
Public Policy Polling[88]April 19–20, 2014677± 3.8%43%38%—19%
Suffolk University[89]April 3–8, 2014800± 3.5%42%32%2%[90]24%
Quinnipiac[91]March 5–10, 20141,411± 2.6%46%35%1%17%
Selzer & Co.[92]February 23–26, 2014703± 3.7%44%29%—27%
Public Policy Polling[6]February 20–23, 2014869± 3.3%48%36%—15%
Quinnipiac[93]December 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%49%33%1%17%
Selzer & Co.[94]December 8–11, 2013325± ?%52%29%8%11%
Public Policy Polling[95]July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%47%35%—18%
Selzer & Co.[96]June 2–5, 2013591± 4%55%27%9%9%
Public Policy Polling[97]February 1–3, 2013846± %48%33%—19%
Hypothetical polling

With Branstad

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Terry
Branstad (R)		Bruce
Braley (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[97]February 1–3, 2013846± %47%41%—11%
Public Policy Polling[98]May 3–6, 20121,181± 2.85%44%40%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Terry
Branstad (R)		Chet
Culver (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[95]July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%47%42%—11%
Public Policy Polling[97]February 1–3, 2013846± %50%40%—10%
Public Policy Polling[98]May 3–6, 20121,181± 2.85%44%42%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Terry
Branstad (R)		Michael
Gronstal (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[95]July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%50%36%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Terry
Branstad (R)		Bob
Krause (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac[93]December 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%49%31%1%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Terry
Branstad (R)		Dave
Loebsack (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[97]February 1–3, 2013846± %48%38%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Terry
Branstad (R)		Tyler
Olson (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac[93]December 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%50%32%1%17%
Selzer & Co.[94]December 8–11, 2013325± ?%51%28%8%13%
Public Policy Polling[95]July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%47%33%—20%
Public Policy Polling[97]February 1–3, 2013846± %47%31%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Terry
Branstad (R)		Tom
Vilsack (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[97]February 1–3, 2013846± %47%46%—8%
Public Policy Polling[98]May 3–6, 20121,181± 2.85%43%46%—11%

With Hoefling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Hoefling (R)		Jack
Hatch (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[3]May 15–19, 2014914± 3.3%30%37%—33%
Suffolk University[99]April 3–8, 2014800± 3.5%23%35%3%[90]39%
Public Policy Polling[6]February 20–23, 2014869± 3.3%30%34%—36%

With Reynolds

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		Chet
Culver (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[95]July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%38%42%—20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		Michael
Gronstal (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[95]July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%37%37%—26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		Jack
Hatch (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[95]July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%36%33%—30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		Tyler
Olson (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[95]July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%36%32%—32%

Results

[edit]
2014 Iowa gubernatorial election[100]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanTerry Branstad (incumbent) /Kim Reynolds (incumbent)666,03258.99%+6.18%
DemocraticJack Hatch / Monica Vernon420,78737.27%−5.94%
LibertarianLee Deakins Hieb / Tim Watson20,3211.80%+0.52%
New Independent Party IowaJim Hennager / Mary Margaret Krieg10,5820.94%N/A
IowaJonathan R. Narcisse / Michael L. Richards10,2400.91%−0.95%
n/aWrite-ins1,0950.09%n/a
Total votes1,129,057100.00%n/a
Republicanhold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Branstad won all four congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[101]

DistrictBranstadHatchRepresentative
1st55.95%40.98%Rod Blum
2nd56.66%39.85%Dave Loebsack
3rd56.55%38.79%David Young
4th67.25%29.39%Steve King

References

[edit]
  1. ^ab"Governor Terry Branstad announces gubernatorial run, tours Iowa".KWWL. Archived fromthe original on January 16, 2014. RetrievedJanuary 15, 2014.
  2. ^"HAYWORTH: Republican Hoefling aiming to challenge Branstad in 2014". Sioux City Journal. March 4, 2014. RetrievedMarch 21, 2014.
  3. ^abcPublic Policy Polling
  4. ^Loras College
  5. ^Suffolk UniversityArchived November 9, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  6. ^abcPublic Policy Polling
  7. ^ab"Official Iowa Secretary of State Elections Results".Iowa Secretary of State. June 3, 2014. Archived fromthe original on June 8, 2014. RetrievedJune 5, 2014.
  8. ^Iowa Supreme Court (March 31, 2014)."Opinion inNarcisse v. Schultz, No. 14-0512"(PDF). RetrievedApril 3, 2014.
  9. ^Bleeding Heartland (April 1, 2014)."IA-Gov: Iowa Supreme Court rejects Narcisse bid for spot on primary ballot".Bleeding Heartland. RetrievedApril 3, 2014.
  10. ^abThe Des Moines Register (July 30, 2014)."Jonathan Narcisse to run for governor as third-party candidate".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2014.
  11. ^abThe Des Moines Register (August 9, 2014)."Register Soapbox: Governor candidate Jonathan Narcisse".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2014.
  12. ^Noble, Jason (September 16, 2013)."State Sen. Jack Hatch officially enters 2014 race for Iowa governor".The Des Moines Register. Archived fromthe original on September 16, 2013. RetrievedSeptember 16, 2013.
  13. ^abHorsch, Lauren (January 18, 2014)."Narcisse says he'll seek Democratic nomination in gubernatorial race".Des Moines Register. RetrievedJanuary 20, 2014.
  14. ^Hayworth, Bret (October 2, 2013)."4th Democrat enters race for governor; Sioux City stop planned".Sioux City Journal. RetrievedOctober 14, 2013.
  15. ^Koplan, Tal (December 17, 2013)."State Rep. Tyler Olson drops Terry Branstad challenge".Politico. RetrievedDecember 17, 2013.
  16. ^abNoble, Jason; Jacobs, Jennifer (May 10, 2013)."New Hatch committee aimed at run for governor".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedMay 12, 2013.
  17. ^Jacobs, Jennifer (February 12, 2014)."Democrat Chet Culver: I won't run for public office in 2014".Des Moines Register. Archived fromthe original on February 12, 2014. RetrievedFebruary 12, 2014.
  18. ^Jacobs, Jennifer (June 4, 2013)."Waterloo Democrat Jeff Danielson won't run for higher office".The Des Moines Register. Archived fromthe original on June 20, 2013. RetrievedJune 5, 2013.
  19. ^Jacobs, Jennifer (August 30, 2013)."Democrat Mike Fitzgerald rules out a run for Iowa governor".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedAugust 30, 2013.
  20. ^abJacobs, Jennifer (July 30, 2013)."Democrats Mike Gronstal and Pam Jochum won't run for governor (updated)".Des Moines Register. RetrievedJuly 30, 2013.
  21. ^abPetroski, William (October 11, 2013)."Hatch names steering committee for Iowa governor's race".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedOctober 14, 2013.
  22. ^ab"Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. 2 January 2014. Archived fromthe original on 3 January 2014. Retrieved3 January 2014.
  23. ^Dorman, Todd (January 2, 2014)."Petersen won't run for governor".The Gazette. Cedar Rapids, Iowa. RetrievedJanuary 4, 2014.
  24. ^Jacobs, Jennifer (June 5, 2013)."Tom Vilsack won't run for Iowa governor again".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedJune 5, 2013.
  25. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzaaabacadaeafagahai"IA-Gov: Hatch rolls out campaign, Olson rolls out endorsements (updated)".Bleeding Heartland. September 16, 2013. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2013.
  26. ^abcdefghi"IA-Gov: Leonard Boswell, 14 legislators endorse Jack Hatch (updated)".Bleeding Heartland. October 10, 2013. RetrievedOctober 14, 2013.
  27. ^"Bleeding Heartland:: IA-Gov: Jack Hatch running "Smokey and the Branstad" ad (updated)". RetrievedNovember 26, 2014.
  28. ^Danielson, Jeff (August 20, 2013)."Why Tyler Has My Support".Tyler Olson for Governor. Archived fromthe original on August 30, 2013. RetrievedAugust 29, 2013.
  29. ^"Bleeding Heartland:: IA-Gov: Bob Dvorsky is third senator to endorse Tyler Olson". RetrievedNovember 26, 2014.
  30. ^"Sue Dvorsky on Twitter".Twitter. RetrievedNovember 26, 2014.
  31. ^abc"Bleeding Heartland:: IA-Gov: Tyler Olson evokes "fresh leadership" for "the next thirty years"". RetrievedNovember 26, 2014.
  32. ^Hon, Dave (October 15, 2013)."Rep. Dan Kelley endorses Tyler Olson for governor".Newton Daily News. RetrievedOctober 19, 2013.
  33. ^"Janet Petersen on Twitter".Twitter. RetrievedNovember 26, 2014.
  34. ^"State's largest union backs Olson for governor".WCF Courier. October 30, 2013. RetrievedNovember 1, 2013.
  35. ^"Tyler Olson claims first union endorsement of Democratic race for governor".Des Moines Register. September 19, 2013. RetrievedSeptember 23, 2013.
  36. ^Noble, Jason (June 18, 2014)."Monica Vernon signs on as Jack Hatch's lieutenant governor".The Des Moines Register. Archived fromthe original on June 18, 2014. RetrievedJune 18, 2014.
  37. ^"Meet the Candidate: Iowa Governor: Jim Hennager, New Independent Party Iowa".Des Moines Register. October 14, 2014. RetrievedOctober 17, 2014.
  38. ^abAronsen, Gavin (March 25, 2014)."Iraq war vet among libertarians nominated at state convention".Ames Tribune. RetrievedJune 18, 2014.
  39. ^James Q. Lynch (July 31, 2014)."Iowa Party lieutenant governor candidate hopes to tap voter discontent".The Gazette. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2014.
  40. ^"2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2018.
  41. ^"The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2018.
  42. ^"2014 Gubernatorial Ratings".Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2018.
  43. ^"2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2018.
  44. ^Public Policy Polling
  45. ^abJim Hennager (NIP) 2%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 2%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  46. ^Quinnipiac University
  47. ^Iowa Poll
  48. ^YouGov
  49. ^Fox News
  50. ^Reuters/Ipsos
  51. ^Quinnipiac
  52. ^Loras College
  53. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  54. ^NBC News/Marist
  55. ^Gravis Marketing
  56. ^Monmouth University
  57. ^Quinnipiac University
  58. ^Suffolk UniversityArchived October 17, 2014, at theWayback Machine
  59. ^Jim Hennager (NIP) 1%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 1%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  60. ^Quinnipiac University
  61. ^The Iowa Poll
  62. ^Magellan
  63. ^NBC News/Marist
  64. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  65. ^Gravis Marketing
  66. ^Public Policy Polling
  67. ^Jim Hennager (NIP) 3%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 2%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  68. ^Iowa Poll
  69. ^Jim Hennager (NIP) 2%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 3%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  70. ^abcRasmussen Reports
  71. ^FOX News
  72. ^Quinnipiac
  73. ^Loras College
  74. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  75. ^SuffolkArchived September 3, 2014, at theWayback Machine
  76. ^Jim Hennager (NIP) 1%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 1%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 0%
  77. ^Public Policy Polling
  78. ^CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  79. ^Gravis Marketing
  80. ^NBC News/Marist
  81. ^Quinnipiac
  82. ^Vox Populi PollingArchived September 24, 2015, at theWayback Machine
  83. ^Loras College
  84. ^Global Strategy Group
  85. ^Victory Enterprises
  86. ^Hickman Analytics
  87. ^Vox Populi PollingArchived September 24, 2015, at theWayback Machine
  88. ^Public Policy Polling
  89. ^Suffolk UniversityArchived November 9, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  90. ^abLee Hieb (L)
  91. ^Quinnipiac
  92. ^Selzer & Co.
  93. ^abcQuinnipiac
  94. ^abSelzer & Co.
  95. ^abcdefghPublic Policy Polling
  96. ^Selzer & Co.
  97. ^abcdefPublic Policy Polling
  98. ^abcPublic Policy Polling
  99. ^Suffolk UniversityArchived November 9, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  100. ^"2014 General election. Canvass summary"(PDF). Iowa Secretary of State.
  101. ^"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".

External links

[edit]

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