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2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election

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2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election

← 2012
March 11, 2014
2014 →

Florida's 13th congressional district
 
NomineeDavid JollyAlex Sink
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote89,16785,673
Percentage48.5%46.6%

County results
Jolly:     40–50%

U.S. Representative before election

Bill Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

David Jolly
Republican

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Aspecial election forFlorida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of theUnited States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbentRepublican CongressmanBill Young on October 18, 2013.[1] Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014.[2] Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-electionin 2014, was re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote.[3] With 100% of the precincts reporting,David Jolly was declared the winner.

Background

[edit]

On October 9, 2013, RepublicanBill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died nine days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won byAl Gore overGeorge W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, byBarack Obama overJohn McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% overMitt Romney. Given this, some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as abellwether for the fall2014 elections.[4][5] While discounting the idea of special elections as bellwethers, political scientists agreed the result was a data point that public sentiment favored Republicans.[6]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Mark Bircher

Politicians

David Jolly

Politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Kathleen Peters

Politicians

Individuals

  • Bill Young II, son of Bill Young[7]

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Bircher
David
Jolly
Kathleen
Peters
Undecided
St. Pete Polls[36]January 9, 2014653± 3.8%26.3%36.5%23.9%13.3%
Gravis Marketing[37]January 8, 2014976± 3%25%34%28%14%
St. Pete Polls[38]December 30, 2013488± 4.4%17.7%39.4%27.7%15.1%
St. Pete Polls[39]December 18, 2013660± 3.8%16.1%34.9%30.2%18.9%
St. Pete Polls[40]December 3, 2013534± 4.2%17.2%27.8%27.1%28.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Baker
Neil
Brickfield
Larry
Crow
Frank
Hibbard
David
Jolly
Kathleen
Peters
Karen
Seel
OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls[41]November 18, 2013582± 4.1%39.2%17.3%30.9%12.6%
St. Pete Polls[42]November 5, 2013498± 4.4%16.8%15%18.7%28.7%20.8%
St. Pete Polls[43]October 15, 2013742± 3.6%51%7%4%2%10%27%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDavid Jolly20,49345
RepublicanKathleen Peters14,23431
RepublicanMark Bircher11,24224
Total votes45,810100

Democratic nomination

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Alex Sink

Politicians

  • Joseph Barkley, Belleair Bluffs city council member[49]
  • Nancy Besore, Safety Harbor commissioner[50]
  • Kathy Castor, U.S. representative[51]
  • Dwight Dudley, state representative[49]
  • Rene Flowers, Pinellas County School Board member[49]
  • Amy Foster, St. Petersburg City Council member[50]
  • Michael Fridovich, Gulfport City Council member[50]
  • Patricia Gerard, mayor ofLargo[49]
  • Samuel Henderson, mayor ofGulfport[50]
  • Lorraine Huhn, vice mayor ofSt. Pete Beach[50]
  • Robert Jackson, former mayor of Largo[49]
  • Charlie Justice, Pinellas County commissioner[49]
  • Steve Kornell, St. Petersburg City Council member[49]
  • Linda Lerner, Pinellas County School Board member[49]
  • Janet C. Long, Pinellas County commissioner[49]
  • Jack Nazario, Belleair Bluffs commissioner[50]
  • Karl Nurse, St. Petersburg City Council member[49]
  • Carlen Petersen, former Clearwater City Council member[50]
  • Patricia Plantamura, Seminole City Council member[49]
  • Jim Quinn, Seminole City Council member[50]
  • Darryl Rouson, state representative[49]
  • Mike Smith, Largo City Council member[49]
  • Ken Welch, Pinellas County commissioner[49]
  • Carl Zimmermann, state representative[49]

Organisations

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jessica
Ehrlich
Alex
Sink
OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls[42]November 5, 2013367± 5.1%10.6%69.6%10.7%9.1%
St. Pete Polls[43]October 15, 2013706± 3.7%20%63%10%7%

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to theNational Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC.[54]

Debates

[edit]

David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators.[55] The debate can be viewed in its entiretyhere.

A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%.[56]

Campaign spending

[edit]

During the campaign,OpenSecrets reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history.[57]

The Associated Press reported that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by three to one on television ads, as well as outspending him overall.[58]

Endorsements

[edit]
David Jolly

Politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Lucas Overby

Politicians

Alex Sink

Politicians

  • Joseph Barkley, Belleair Bluffs city council member[49]
  • Nancy Besore, Safety Harbor commissioner[50]
  • Kathy Castor, U.S. representative[51]
  • Dwight Dudley, state representative[49]
  • Rene Flowers, Pinellas County School Board member[49]
  • Amy Foster, St. Petersburg City Council member[50]
  • Michael Fridovich, Gulfport City Council member[50]
  • Patricia Gerard, mayor ofLargo[49]
  • Samuel Henderson, mayor ofGulfport[50]
  • Lorraine Huhn, vice mayor ofSt. Pete Beach[50]
  • Robert Jackson, former mayor of Largo[49]
  • Charlie Justice, Pinellas County commissioner[49]
  • Steve Kornell, St. Petersburg City Council member[49]
  • Susan Latvala, Republican Pinellas County commissioner[66]
  • Linda Lerner, Pinellas County School Board member[49]
  • Janet C. Long, Pinellas County commissioner[49]
  • Jack Nazario, Belleair Bluffs commissioner[50]
  • Karl Nurse, St. Petersburg City Council member[49]
  • Carlen Petersen, former Clearwater City Council member[50]
  • Patricia Plantamura, Seminole City Council member[49]
  • Jim Quinn, Seminole City Council member[50]
  • Darden Rice, St. Petersburg City Council member[49]
  • Darryl Rouson, state representative[49]
  • Mike Smith, Largo City Council member[49]
  • Ken Welch, Pinellas County commissioner[49]
  • Carl Zimmermann, state representative[49]

Organisations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Jolly (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Lucas
Overby (L)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[68]March 7–9, 2014702± 3.7%45%48%6%2%
RedRacingHorses & PMI inc.[69]February 25–27, 2014391± 6%46%44%5%5%
St. Pete Polls[70]February 25, 20141,269± 2.8%45.6%45.9%6.4%2.1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[71]February 17–18, 2014400± 4.9%44%42%14%
St. Pete Polls[72]February 12, 20141,130± 2.9%46.2%44%6.6%2.4%
St. Leo University[73]February 9–11, 2014400± 5%37%46%12%5%
Braun Research[74]February 4–9, 2014603± 4%35%42%4%14%
DCCC[75]January 24, 2014527± 4.3%45%49%6%
McLaughlin & Associates[76]January 16–19, 2014400± 4.9%43%38%4%15%
St. Pete Polls[77]January 15, 20141,278± 2.7%47%42.8%4.4%5.9%
St. Pete Polls[40]December 3, 20131,128± 2.9%36.3%49%5.6%8.8%
St. Pete Polls[41]November 18, 20131,252± 2.8%34.9%49.3%15.7%
St. Pete Polls[42]November 5, 20131,079± 3%31%51.5%17.5%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Baker (R)
Jessica
Ehrlich (D)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls[43]October 15, 20131,741± 2.3%34.6%30.7%34.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Baker (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls[43]October 15, 20131,741± 2.3%34.0%50.8%15.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Bircher (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls[40]December 3, 20131,128± 2.9%30.2%50.4%12.1%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Neil
Brickfield (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls[42]November 5, 20131,079± 3%30.1%51.2%18.8%
St. Pete Polls[43]October 15, 20131,741± 2.3%24.0%56.6%19.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Frank
Hibbard (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls[42]November 5, 20131,079± 3%30.7%51.6%17.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kathleen
Peters (R)
Alex
Sink (D)
Undecided
St. Pete Polls[40]December 3, 20131,128± 2.9%34.6%47.7%12.2%
St. Pete Polls[41]November 18, 20131,252± 2.8%30.7%49.7%19.6%

Results

[edit]
Florida's 13th congressional district, 2014 (special)[78]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDavid Jolly89,16748.52%−9.05%
DemocraticAlex Sink85,67346.62%+4.19%
LibertarianLucas Overby8,9194.86%N/A
n/aMichael S. Levinson (write-in)130.00%N/A
Total votes'183,772''100.0%'N/A
Republicanhold

References

[edit]
  1. ^Alex Isenstadt (October 18, 2013)."Bill Young, longest-serving House Republican, dies".Politico. RetrievedOctober 19, 2013.
  2. ^Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013)."Florida House Special-Election Date Scheduled".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on November 1, 2013. RetrievedOctober 30, 2013.
  3. ^"November 6, 2012 General Election – Official Results".Florida Department of State. Archived fromthe original on October 21, 2013. RetrievedOctober 19, 2013.
  4. ^Kucinich, Jackie (November 22, 2013).In Fla., late Rep. Young's purple-trending district will test waters for 2014 midterms.The Washington Post.
  5. ^The Hill
    CNN
    Orlando Sentinel
    New York Magazine
    Sunshine State News
    WSJ
    WWSBArchived 2016-03-04 at theWayback Machine
  6. ^Larry J. Sabato; Kyle Kondik (March 12, 2014)."The Limited Meaning of Florida's Special House Election".Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
    Nathan L. Gonzales (March 10, 2014)."Why Florida's 13th District Special Election Is Still a Tossup".The Rothenberg Political Report.
    Sean Trende (March 11, 2014)."What Should We Read Into FL-13? Maybe Nothing".RealClearPolitics.
    Harry Enten (March 12, 2014)."Don't Read Too Much Into Result in Florida's 13th District".FiveThirtyEight.
    Nate Silver (September 13, 2011)."A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin".FiveThirtyEight.
  7. ^abcdefgCurtis Krueger (November 19, 2013)."State Rep. Kathleen Peters enters Pinellas congressional race, creating a GOP contest".Tampa Bay Times.
  8. ^abcd"Rick Baker won't run for Young's seat, but David Jolly will". Tampa Bay Times. November 2, 2013. RetrievedNovember 2, 2013.
  9. ^Curtis Krueger (November 18, 2013)."State Rep. Peters files paperwork for Pinellas congressional seat, plans announcement for Tuesday".Tampa Bay Times.
  10. ^abcdefghijklmPeter Schorsch (November 10, 2013)."Rick Baker endorses David Jolly in special election for Congressional District 13".SaintPetersBlog. Archived fromthe original on November 13, 2013. RetrievedNovember 11, 2013.
  11. ^"Safety Harbor Mayor Ayoub not running for Congress and so far not supporting GOP candidate David Jolly". November 13, 2012. Archived fromthe original on November 14, 2013. RetrievedNovember 13, 2013.
  12. ^Peter Schorsch (November 2, 2013)."Former St. Pete mayor Rick Baker announcing he is NOT running for Congressional District 13".SaintPetersBlog.
  13. ^Peter Schorsch (November 2, 2013)."Former Pinellas Commissioner Brickfield will not run for Congress".Tampa Bay Times.
  14. ^abCurtis Krueger (November 2, 2013)."Who's in, who's out in race for Rep. C.W. Bill Young's seat".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on November 4, 2013. RetrievedNovember 3, 2013.
  15. ^Curtis Krueger (November 7, 2013)."Pinellas Sheriff Bob Gualtieri says no to congressional run".Tampa Bay Times.
  16. ^Curtis Krueger (November 7, 2013)."GOP's Gualtieri and Hibbard rule out campaign to replace Young in Congress".Tampa Bay Times.
  17. ^Peter Schorsch (November 6, 2013)."Tea Party loon, charity scammer Michael Pinson announces he won't run for Congress".SaintPetersBlog. Archived fromthe original on November 8, 2013. RetrievedNovember 7, 2013.
  18. ^Curtis Krueger (November 5, 2013)."Pinellas Commissioner Karen Seel won't run for Congress".Tampa Bay Times. Archived fromthe original on November 8, 2013. RetrievedNovember 5, 2013.
  19. ^Peter Schorsch (November 1, 2013)."Bill Young, Jr. announces HE WILL NOT seek his father's congressional seat".SaintPetersBlog.
  20. ^Curtis Krueger (November 11, 2013)."Tom Young won't run for his brother's seat in Congress".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on November 13, 2013. RetrievedNovember 12, 2013.
  21. ^Adam C. Smith (December 18, 2013)."Allen West backs Mark Bircher in race for Young seat".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on December 19, 2013. RetrievedDecember 19, 2013.
  22. ^abPeter Schorsch (November 14, 2013)."David Jolly gets key Pinellas endorsement from Sen. Jeff Brandes".SaintPetersBlog. Archived fromthe original on November 14, 2013.
  23. ^abcdefghijklmn"Clearwater Fraternal Order of Police Endorses Republican David Jolly for Congress"(PDF).Friends of David Jolly. November 21, 2013.
  24. ^abCurtis Krueger (December 10, 2013)."Endorsement wars are raging in Pinellas congressional race".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on December 15, 2013. RetrievedDecember 11, 2013.
  25. ^abPeter Schorsch (November 17, 2013)."Property Appraiser Pam Dubov backs David Jolly's bid for CD 13".SaintPetersBlog. Archived fromthe original on November 30, 2013. RetrievedNovember 17, 2013.
  26. ^abPeter Schorsch (November 8, 2013)."U.S. Rep. Richard Nugent endorses David Jolly's congressional bid".SaintPetersBlog. Archived fromthe original on November 13, 2013. RetrievedNovember 8, 2013.
  27. ^abcdCurtis Krueger (November 8, 2013)."Endorsements for Congressional candidate David Jolly".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on November 9, 2013. RetrievedNovember 9, 2013.
  28. ^ab"Bob Barker says 'the choice is right'". Archived fromthe original on December 14, 2022. RetrievedDecember 12, 2013.
  29. ^abcCurtis Krueger (December 17, 2013)."Farkas endorses Peters, contractors endorse Jolly in Pinellas GOP congress race".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on December 19, 2013. RetrievedDecember 18, 2013.
  30. ^"Tribune endorses David Jolly for District 13 GOP primary".Tampa Tribune. December 22, 2013. Archived fromthe original on December 24, 2013. RetrievedDecember 22, 2013.
  31. ^abcdefghijklmnopqPhil Ammann (November 30, 2013)."Bill Young Jr. helping to host Dec. 4 fundraiser for Kathleen Peters".SaintPetersBlog. Archived fromthe original on November 30, 2013.
  32. ^Peter Schorsch (December 10, 2013)."Email Insights: not-too-bitter Bill Foster endorses Kathleen Peters".SaintPetersBlog. Archived fromthe original on December 13, 2013. RetrievedDecember 11, 2013.
  33. ^Abby Livingston (December 9, 2013)."House GOP Women Fundraise for Florida Special Candidate (Updated)".RollCall. Archived fromthe original on December 9, 2013. RetrievedDecember 9, 2013.
  34. ^Curtis Krueger (November 21, 2013)."In Pinellas congressional race, Peters and Jolly receive new endorsements".Tampa Bay Times. Archived fromthe original on November 25, 2013. RetrievedNovember 22, 2013.
  35. ^"Times recommends: Kathleen Peters for U.S. House GOP primary".Tampa Bay Times. December 16, 2013.
  36. ^St. Pete Polls
  37. ^Gravis Marketing
  38. ^St. Pete Polls
  39. ^St. Pete Polls
  40. ^abcdSt. Pete Polls
  41. ^abcSt. Pete Polls
  42. ^abcdeSt. Pete Polls
  43. ^abcdeSt. Pete Polls
  44. ^"Republican primary results". Associated Press. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2014.
  45. ^Adam C. Smith (October 30, 2013)."Alex Sink is running for C.W. Bill Young's congressional seat, will move to Pinellas".Tampa Bay Times.
  46. ^Abby Livingston (November 6, 2013)."Democrat Suspends Campaign Against Alex Sink in Florida District".Roll Call. Archived fromthe original on November 10, 2013. RetrievedNovember 6, 2013.
  47. ^ab"Pinellas Commissioner Charlie Justice won't run for Young's seat, Libertarian Lucas Overby will". Tampa Bay Times. October 25, 2012. RetrievedOctober 25, 2013.
  48. ^Curtis Krueger (October 28, 2013)."Pinellas Commissioner Janet Long decides against running for Congress".Tampa Bay Times.
  49. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzaaabacadaeCurtis Krueger (November 12, 2013)."Congressional candidate Alex Sink touts Pinellas endorsements".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on November 13, 2013. RetrievedNovember 13, 2013.
  50. ^abcdefghijklmnopPeter Schorsch (December 2, 2013)."Alex Sink picks up more endorsements from Pinellas elected officials".SaintPetersBlog. Archived fromthe original on December 2, 2013.
  51. ^abPeter Schorsch (November 14, 2013)."Dog bites man: Kathy Castor endorses Alex Sink for Congress".SaintPetersBlog. Archived fromthe original on November 16, 2013. RetrievedNovember 14, 2013.
  52. ^ab"EMILY's List Endorses Alex Sink For Florida Congressional Seat". Talking Points Memo. October 31, 2013. RetrievedOctober 31, 2013.
  53. ^Curtis Krueger (November 20, 2013)."Congressional candidate Jolly calls for replacing controversial flood insurance program".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on January 21, 2014. RetrievedNovember 20, 2013.
  54. ^Leary, Alex (February 3, 2014)."Campaign site misleads man into donating money against Sink".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on February 4, 2014. RetrievedFebruary 3, 2014.
  55. ^"Florida 13th District Debate, Feb 3 2014 - Video - C-SPAN.org".www.c-span.org.
  56. ^"Who do you think did best at Monday night's Congressional debate?". Bay News 9. Archived fromthe original on February 8, 2014. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2014.
  57. ^"Outside Spending Dominates in Florida, to Jolly's Benefit". OpenSecrets. February 13, 2014. RetrievedFebruary 17, 2014.
  58. ^"Florida Special Election Results: David Jolly Wins House Seat In State's 13th District". Associated Press/Huffington Post. March 11, 2014. RetrievedMarch 11, 2014.
  59. ^abcCurtis Krueger (January 15, 2014)."Kathleen Peters not ready to endorse David Jolly".Tampa Bay Times.
  60. ^ab"Rick Scott raising money for David Jolly". January 28, 2014.
  61. ^Kevin Derby (January 23, 2014)."John McCain, NRCC Help Out David Jolly Over Alex Sink".Sunshine State News. Archived fromthe original on January 26, 2014.
  62. ^Curtis Krueger (January 20, 2014)."After balking, GOP candidate supports David Jolly in Pinellas congressional race".Tampa Bay Times.
  63. ^Derby, Kevin (February 10, 2014)."Marco Rubio Showcases Support for David Jolly Against Alex Sink".Sunshine State News - Florida Political News.
  64. ^"Tribune endorsement: David Jolly for U.S. House District 13". Tampa Tribune. February 9, 2014. Archived fromthe original on March 6, 2016. RetrievedFebruary 21, 2014.
  65. ^Jed Ziggler (January 13, 2014)."Gary Johnson endorses Lucas Overby".Independent Political Report.
  66. ^Adam C. Smith (February 23, 2014)."Republican endorses Alex Sink".Tampa Bay Times. Archived fromthe original on February 28, 2014. RetrievedFebruary 24, 2014.
  67. ^"Times recommends: Alex Sink for U.S. House". Tampa Bay Times. February 7, 2014. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2014.
  68. ^Public Policy Polling
  69. ^RedRacingHorses & PMI inc.
  70. ^St. Pete Polls
  71. ^Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
  72. ^St. Pete Polls
  73. ^St. Leo University
  74. ^Braun Research
  75. ^DCCC
  76. ^McLaughlin & Associates
  77. ^St. Pete Polls
  78. ^"Florida Department of State - Election Results".

External links

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