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2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina

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Main article:2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina

← 2008
November 6, 2012
2016 →
Turnout68.40%Decrease[1]
 
NomineeMitt RomneyBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateMassachusettsIllinois
Running matePaul RyanJoe Biden
Electoral vote150
Popular vote2,270,3952,178,391
Percentage50.39%48.35%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Romney

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the2012 general election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.North Carolina voters chose 15 electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pittingincumbentDemocraticPresidentBarack Obama and his running mate,Vice PresidentJoe Biden, againstRepublican challenger and formerMassachusetts GovernorMitt Romney and his running mate,U.S. RepresentativePaul Ryan.

Romney narrowly carried the state of North Carolina, winning 50.39% of the vote to Obama's 48.35%, a margin of 2.04 percentage points. North Carolina was one of just two states (along withIndiana) that flipped from voting for Obama in2008 to voting Republican in 2012. Like Indiana, North Carolina had been a reliably Republican state prior to Obama's 2008 win, having not previously gone Democratic since1976. Unlike Indiana, however, North Carolina was still considered a competitiveswing state in 2012, and both campaigns targeted it heavily, with the Democrats holding theirconvention inCharlotte. Romney was the first presidential candidate sinceZachary Taylor in1848 to carry North Carolina while losing bothWake County andMecklenburg County, the two most populous counties and home to the cities ofRaleigh and Charlotte, respectively. Romney also became the third-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency afterGeorge H. W. Bush in1992 andBob Dole in1996 and this feat would be reprised byDonald Trump in2020.

Given that Bush was the incumbent president, and Trump was both the incumbent president and then would be re-elected president to a second non-consecutive termfour years later, Romney also became the second-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency, the other was Dole. Obama became the first ever Democratic incumbent to win the state only once to then win re-election without it. Although Obama lost North Carolina to Romney, he received more votes than he received in2008, garnering 35,740 more.

Obama became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency withoutCaswell andHyde counties. As of the2024 presidential election, this is the last time where the Republican presidential candidate wonWatauga County and where the Democratic presidential candidate wonBladen County,Gates County,Granville County,Martin County,Richmond County, andRobeson County.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

The 2012 North Carolina Democratic primary was held May 8, 2012. North Carolina awarded 157 delegates proportionally.[2]

No candidate ran against incumbent PresidentBarack Obama in North Carolina's Democratic presidential preference primary. Obama received 766,079 votes, or 79.23% of the vote, with the remainder (200,810 votes, or 20.77%) going to elect delegates with "No Preference".[2]

At the North Carolina Democratic state convention, 152 delegates were awarded to Obama, with 5 delegates remaining unannounced.[2]

Democratic primary election in North Carolina[3]
CandidateVotesPercentageAwarded delegates
Barack Obama (incumbent)766,07779.23%104
No Preference200,81020.77%43
Totals966,889100.00%104

Republican primary

[edit]
See also:Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012 § North Carolina (May 8)

The 2012 North Carolina Republican primary was held May 8, 2012.[4][5]North Carolina awarded 55 delegates proportionally.[6]Ron Paul andMitt Romney were the only active contenders on the ballot. By the time of the primary, Romney had already been declared the party's presumptive nominee.[7]

Romney won the North Carolina GOP presidential primary with 65.62% of the vote. Paul (with 11.12% of the vote) narrowly edged out Santorum (with 10.39% of the vote), and Gingrich came in last with 7.64% of the vote. 5.23% of voters registered "no preference". The awarded delegate count from North Carolina's Republican state convention was Romney with 48 delegates and Paul with 7 delegates.[6]

Republican primary election in North Carolina[6]
CandidateVotesPercentageAwarded delegates
Mitt Romney638,60165.62%48
Ron Paul108,21711.12%7
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)101,09310.39%
Newt Gingrich (withdrawn)74,3677.64%
No Preference50,9285.23%
Totals973,206100.00%55

General election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Main article:Statewide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election

Throughout most of 2011, Obama won or tied with Romney in every poll. On September 25, 2011, Romney won a poll for the first time, 50% to 39%. Until May 2012, Obama had a consistent but narrow lead over Romney. Throughout the summer of 2012, the tide changed with Romney winning more polls than Obama. In September, Obama's momentum rose and Obama won most polls in September 2012. In October, the tide changed in Romney's favor, and Obama had not won a poll since October 1, 2012. Romney won every poll for the first three weeks in October, but then many polls came as tied between Obama and Romney. Romney led the last poll 50% to 46%, but the second last poll was tied.[8] The last three polls showed an average of Romney leading 49% to 48%, which was accurate compared to the results.[8]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post[9]TossupNovember 6, 2012
CNN[10]Lean R(flip)November 6, 2012
New York Times[11]Lean R(flip)November 6, 2012
Washington Post[12]TossupNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[13]TossupNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]Likely R(flip)November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[15]Lean R(flip)November 6, 2012

Results

[edit]
2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina[16]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanMitt RomneyPaul Ryan2,270,39550.39%15
DemocraticBarack Obama (incumbent)Joe Biden (incumbent)2,178,39148.35%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonJim Gray44,5150.99%0
Others (write-in)12,0710.27%0
Totals4,505,372100.00%15
Voter turnout (registered voters)67.74%
North Carolina 2012 presidential election by precinct

By county

[edit]
CountyMitt Romney
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Alamance38,17056.32%28,87542.60%7311.08%9,29513.72%67,776
Alexander12,25371.25%4,61126.81%3321.94%7,64244.44%17,196
Alleghany3,39066.90%1,58331.24%941.86%1,80735.66%5,067
Anson4,16637.01%7,01962.36%710.63%−2,853−25.35%11,256
Ashe8,24265.36%4,11632.64%2522.00%4,12632.72%12,610
Avery5,76674.31%1,88224.26%1111.43%3,88450.05%7,759
Beaufort13,97759.17%9,43539.94%2080.89%4,54219.23%23,620
Bertie3,38733.46%6,69566.14%410.40%−3,308−32.68%10,123
Bladen7,74848.56%8,06250.52%1470.92%−314−1.96%15,957
Brunswick34,74360.57%22,03838.42%5811.01%12,70522.15%57,362
Buncombe54,70142.84%70,62555.31%2,3701.85%−15,924−12.47%127,696
Burke22,26760.93%13,70137.49%5761.58%8,56623.44%36,544
Cabarrus49,55759.30%32,84939.31%1,1601.39%16,70819.99%83,566
Caldwell23,22966.88%10,89831.38%6051.74%12,33135.50%34,732
Camden3,10966.09%1,50832.06%871.85%1,60134.03%4,704
Carteret24,77569.76%10,30129.00%4411.24%14,47440.76%35,517
Caswell5,59450.67%5,34848.45%970.88%2462.22%11,039
Catawba44,53863.99%24,06934.58%9941.43%20,46929.41%69,601
Chatham16,66547.03%18,36151.82%4081.15%−1,696−4.79%35,434
Cherokee9,27872.11%3,37826.25%2111.64%5,90045.86%12,867
Chowan3,89151.85%3,55647.38%580.77%3354.47%7,505
Clay3,97370.42%1,57927.99%901.59%2,39442.43%5,642
Cleveland25,79359.51%17,06239.37%4851.12%8,73120.14%43,340
Columbus12,94153.38%11,05045.58%2521.04%1,8917.80%24,243
Craven26,92858.32%18,76340.64%4791.04%8,16517.68%46,170
Cumberland50,66639.69%75,79259.38%1,1830.93%−25,126−19.69%127,641
Currituck7,49666.31%3,56231.51%2462.18%3,93434.80%11,304
Dare10,24857.02%7,39341.13%3331.85%2,85515.89%17,974
Davidson49,38369.62%20,62429.07%9281.31%28,75940.55%70,935
Davie14,68771.05%5,73527.75%2481.20%8,95243.30%20,670
Duplin11,41655.44%9,03343.87%1430.69%2,38311.57%20,592
Durham33,76923.01%111,22475.80%1,7421.19%−77,455−52.79%146,735
Edgecombe8,54631.68%18,31067.89%1160.43%−9,764−36.21%26,972
Forsyth79,76845.83%92,32353.04%1,9781.13%−12,555−7.21%174,069
Franklin14,60351.44%13,43647.33%3501.23%1,1674.11%28,389
Gaston56,13862.04%33,17136.66%1,1741.30%22,96725.38%90,483
Gates2,56447.52%2,78651.63%460.85%−222−4.11%5,396
Graham2,75069.67%1,11928.35%781.98%1,63141.32%3,947
Granville12,40547.21%13,59851.75%2721.04%−1,193−4.54%26,275
Greene4,41153.56%3,77845.87%470.57%6337.69%8,236
Guilford104,78941.28%146,36557.66%2,6981.06%−41,576−16.38%253,852
Halifax8,76333.60%17,17665.86%1400.54%−8,413−32.26%26,079
Harnett25,56558.89%17,33139.92%5191.19%8,23418.97%43,415
Haywood15,63355.88%11,83342.30%5081.82%3,80013.58%27,974
Henderson32,99462.98%18,64235.58%7561.44%14,35227.40%52,392
Hertford3,00727.54%7,84371.84%680.62%−4,836−44.30%10,918
Hoke6,81939.90%10,07658.96%1941.14%−3,257−19.06%17,089
Hyde1,19350.06%1,16348.80%271.14%301.26%2,383
Iredell49,29964.56%26,07634.15%9901.29%23,22330.41%76,365
Jackson8,25449.42%8,09548.47%3522.11%1590.95%16,701
Johnston48,42763.15%27,29035.58%9741.27%21,13727.57%76,691
Jones2,83754.24%2,35244.97%410.79%4859.27%5,230
Lee13,15854.28%10,80144.56%2801.16%2,3579.72%24,239
Lenoir13,98049.78%13,94849.66%1580.56%320.12%28,086
Lincoln25,26768.71%11,02429.98%4841.31%14,24338.73%36,775
Macon10,83564.26%5,71233.88%3141.86%5,12330.38%16,861
Madison5,40453.44%4,48444.34%2252.22%9209.10%10,113
Martin5,99547.38%6,58352.03%740.59%−588−4.65%12,652
McDowell11,77565.06%6,03133.32%2931.62%5,74431.74%18,099
Mecklenburg171,66838.24%272,26260.65%4,9701.11%−100,594−22.41%448,900
Mitchell5,80674.77%1,83823.67%1211.56%3,96851.10%7,765
Montgomery6,40457.02%4,70641.90%1211.08%1,69815.12%11,231
Moore29,49563.55%16,50535.56%4150.89%12,99027.99%46,415
Nash23,84249.17%24,31350.14%3370.69%−471−0.97%48,492
New Hanover53,38551.52%48,66846.96%1,5751.52%4,7174.56%103,628
Northampton3,48332.38%7,23267.24%410.38%−3,749−34.86%10,756
Onslow32,24362.69%18,49035.95%7021.36%13,75326.74%51,435
Orange21,53928.06%53,90170.22%1,3171.72%−32,362−42.16%76,757
Pamlico4,05159.91%2,64739.15%640.94%1,40420.76%6,762
Pasquotank7,63342.15%10,28256.78%1921.07%−2,649−14.63%18,107
Pender14,61759.60%9,63239.27%2781.13%4,98520.33%24,527
Perquimans3,82257.46%2,75941.48%711.06%1,06315.98%6,652
Person10,49654.94%8,41844.06%1921.00%2,07810.88%19,106
Pitt36,21445.92%41,84353.06%7991.02%−5,629−7.14%78,856
Polk6,23660.03%4,01338.63%1401.34%2,22321.40%10,389
Randolph45,16074.38%14,77324.33%7821.29%30,38750.05%60,715
Richmond9,33248.06%9,90451.01%1810.93%−572−2.95%19,417
Robeson17,51040.77%24,98858.18%4481.05%−7,478−17.41%42,946
Rockingham25,22760.04%16,35138.91%4421.05%8,87621.13%42,020
Rowan38,77562.23%22,65036.35%8871.42%16,12525.88%62,312
Rutherford18,95466.04%9,37432.66%3741.30%9,58033.38%28,702
Sampson14,42255.10%11,56644.19%1860.71%2,85610.91%26,174
Scotland5,83141.19%8,21558.03%1100.78%−2,384−16.84%14,156
Stanly19,90469.31%8,43129.36%3821.33%11,47339.95%28,717
Stokes15,23770.48%6,01827.84%3641.68%9,21942.64%21,619
Surry19,92367.60%9,11230.92%4351.48%10,81136.68%29,470
Swain2,97651.96%2,61845.71%1342.33%3586.25%5,728
Transylvania9,63457.47%6,82640.72%3031.81%2,80816.75%16,763
Tyrrell93052.16%83746.94%160.90%935.22%1,783
Union61,10764.51%32,47334.28%1,1481.21%28,63430.23%94,728
Vance7,42935.62%13,32363.89%1020.49%−5,894−28.27%20,854
Wake211,59643.50%267,26254.94%7,5691.56%−55,666−11.44%486,427
Warren3,14030.90%6,97868.67%440.43%−3,838−37.77%10,162
Washington2,62240.34%3,83358.98%440.68%−1,211−18.64%6,499
Watauga13,86150.09%13,00246.98%8112.93%8593.11%27,674
Wayne27,64153.83%23,31445.40%3970.77%4,3278.43%51,352
Wilkes20,51570.39%8,14827.96%4821.65%12,36742.43%29,145
Wilson17,95445.91%20,87553.38%2800.71%−2,921−7.47%39,109
Yadkin12,57874.81%3,95723.54%2781.65%8,62151.27%16,813
Yancey5,27855.85%3,98142.12%1922.03%1,29713.73%9,451
Totals2,270,39550.39%2,178,39148.35%56,5861.26%92,0042.04%4,505,372
County flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Romney won ten of the state's 13 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[17]

DistrictRomneyObamaRepresentative
1st28%72%G. K. Butterfield
2nd57%42%Renee Ellmers
3rd58%41%Walter B. Jones
4th27%71%David Price
5th59%40%Virginia Foxx
6th58%41%Howard Coble
7th59%40%Mike McIntyre
8th58%41%Larry Kissell
Richard Hudson
9th56%43%Sue Myrick
Robert Pittenger
10th58%41%Patrick McHenry
11th61%38%Heath Shuler
Mark Meadows
12th21%79%Mel Watt
13th55%44%Brad Miller
George Holding
Elections in North Carolina
U.S./Confederate President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Secretary of State elections
State Treasurer elections
Superintendent of Public Instruction elections
Attorney General elections
Commissioner of Insurance elections
Auditor elections
Council of State elections
2012 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Minor parties
Related races
← 2008
2016 →

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Voter Turnout".North Carolina State Board of Elections.
  2. ^abc"North Carolina Democrat". The Green Papers. RetrievedNovember 14, 2012.
  3. ^"NC - Election Results".results.enr.clarityelections.com. RetrievedSeptember 18, 2016.
  4. ^"Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2012.
  5. ^"Presidential Primary Dates"(PDF).Federal Election Commission. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2012.
  6. ^abc"North Carolina Republican". The Green Papers. RetrievedNovember 14, 2012.
  7. ^Memoli, Michael A. (April 25, 2012)."RNC officially names Mitt Romney the party's 'presumptive nominee'".LA Times. RetrievedNovember 3, 2016.
  8. ^ab"RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama". Archived fromthe original on May 4, 2011.
  9. ^"Huffington Post Election Dashboard".HuffPost. Archived fromthe original on August 13, 2013.
  10. ^"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map".CNN. Archived fromthe original on January 19, 2013.
  11. ^"Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory".The New York Times. Archived fromthe original on July 8, 2012.
  12. ^"2012 Presidential Election Results".The Washington Post.Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  13. ^"RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived fromthe original on June 8, 2011.
  14. ^"PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  15. ^"Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  16. ^"North Carolina State Board of Elections". Archived fromthe original on November 25, 2012. RetrievedNovember 14, 2012.
  17. ^https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HZWeHJXb5vBHA62zMa2ja_HJkxuLtQ7a9NJfDXMUNb8/edit?gid=0#gid=0

External links

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