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2012 United States presidential election in New York

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Main article:2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in New York

← 2008November 6, 20122016 →
Turnout59.2% (Decrease 4.2pp)
 
NomineeBarack ObamaMitt Romney
PartyDemocraticRepublican
AllianceWorking FamiliesConservative
Home stateIllinoisMassachusetts
Running mateJoe BidenPaul Ryan
Electoral vote290
Popular vote4,485,7412,490,431
Percentage63.35%35.17%

County results
Congressional district results
Municipality results

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Romney

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Tie

  


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic


Elections in New York
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
New York gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
State Comptroller elections
State Senate elections
State Assembly elections
General elections
Ballot Measures
Mayoral elections

Pre-consolidation:

Post-consolidation:

City Council elections

Pre-consolidation:

Post-consolidation:

Public Advocate elections
Comptroller elections
Borough president elections
District attorney elections
Ballot Proposals
County Executive elections
County Executive elections

The2012 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated. Voters chose 29 electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pittingincumbentDemocraticPresidentBarack Obama and his running mate,Vice PresidentJoe Biden, againstRepublican challenger and formerMassachusetts GovernorMitt Romney and his running mate,CongressmanPaul Ryan.

Barack Obama carried the state ofNew York by a landslide margin, winning 63.35% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 35.17%.[1] As in previous elections, the Democratic ticket easily won, for the most part due to racking up very large margins inNew York City (which itself comprised over 40% of the state's population) and its metropolitan area. The city alone garnered Obama 1,995,241 votes (81.19% of its vote), and he carried all five boroughs, after losingStaten Island (Richmond County) in2008.Putnam County, which McCain won in 2008, was the only county in the NYC metropolitan area that Obama lost toRomney. The rest of his votes mostly came fromAlbany,Buffalo,Ithaca,Rochester,Syracuse, and their respective metropolitan areas, giving him a solid 28.18% lead over Romney. Obama even won in many rural counties. The Republicans won only in some rural parts of upstate and western New York.

New York was 1 of only 6 states to swing in President Obama's favor from 2008 to 2012, giving him the largest percentage of the vote for any presidential candidate in the state since1964 and the second largest Democratic vote share in the state in history (as well as third most in the state's entire history, behindWarren Harding in1920 as well). Similar to New Jersey, some news outlets, such asThe New York Times, have proposed that Obama's improved performance in these states – as opposed to worsened performances in areas like the Rust Belt – was due to his handling ofHurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29.[2]Mayor of New York CityMichael Bloomberg, a Republican-turned-Independent, endorsed Obama due to the federal government's handling of the hurricane.[3]

As of the2024 presidential election, this is the last time the Democratic nominee won the following counties:Cayuga,Cortland,Franklin,Madison,Niagara,Orange,Oswego,Otsego,Richmond (Staten Island),Seneca,St. Lawrence,Suffolk,Sullivan,Warren, andWashington. This is also the last presidential election in New York in which the Democratic nominee won more counties than the Republican nominee. In subsequent elections, despite Republicans winning more counties, they have been unable to break through the huge Democratic advantage in New York City and its suburbs, ensuring that the state has remained solidly blue.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Incumbent President Barack Obama ran uncontested in the Democratic primary, and it was therefore cancelled.[4]

Republican primary

[edit]
2012New York Republican presidential primary

← 2008April 24, 2012 (2012-04-24)2016 →
 
CandidateMitt RomneyRon Paul
Home stateMassachusettsTexas
Delegate count920
Popular vote118,91227,699
Percentage62.42%14.54%

 
CandidateNewt GingrichRick Santorum
Home stateGeorgiaPennsylvania
Delegate count00
Popular vote23,99018,997
Percentage12.59%9.97%

Results by county

Romney:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

(Note:Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)
2012 New York Republican presidential primary[5]
CandidateVotesPercentageProjected delegate count
APCNN
FOX
Mitt Romney118,91262.42%9292
Ron Paul27,69914.54%00
Newt Gingrich23,99012.59%10
Rick Santorum(withdrawn)18,9979.97%00
Blank8100.43%00
Void1060.06%00
Scattering10.00%00
Unprojected delegates:2395
Total:190,515100.00%959595

The 2012 New York Republican presidential primary took place on April 24, 2012.[6][7]

By county, Romney won a plurality in every county, and a majority in all but six:Niagara,Cattaraugus,Wyoming,Orleans,Schuyler,Herkimer andOswego.

Paul finished second in most counties. Santorum finished second inOtsego County. Gingrich finished second in two geographic areas: a cluster of counties in theCatskills andHudson Valley (Orange,Rockland,Sullivan, andWestchester) and in most of the counties ofWestern New York (Allegany,Cattaraugus,Erie,Genesee,Niagara, andWyoming), in addition to Herkimer andOneida counties.[5] Gingrich's relative strength inWestern New York, as well as in Herkimer, can be attributed to the continued popularity and efforts ofCarl Paladino, who carried those counties in the previous gubernatorial election and campaigned on Gingrich's behalf. The majority of New York politicians had endorsed Romney while the primary election was still competitive.

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Huffington Post[8]Safe DNovember 6, 2012
CNN[9]Safe DNovember 6, 2012
The New York Times[10]Safe DNovember 6, 2012
The Washington Post'[11]Safe DNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[12]Solid DNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]Solid DNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[14]Solid DNovember 6, 2012

Candidate ballot access

[edit]

Write-in candidate access:

Results

[edit]
2012 United States presidential election in New York[15]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack Obama4,337,62261.25%
Working FamiliesBarack Obama148,1192.09%
TotalBarack Obama(incumbent)Joe Biden(incumbent)4,485,74163.35%29
RepublicanMitt Romney2,228,06031.46%
ConservativeMitt Romney262,3713.71%
TotalMitt RomneyPaul Ryan2,490,43135.17%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonJim Gray47,2560.67%0
GreenJill SteinCheri Honkala39,9820.56%0
Write-insWrite-ins9,0760.13%0
ConstitutionVirgil GoodeJim Clymer6,2740.09%0
Socialism and LiberationPeta LindsayYari Osorio2,0500.03%0
Justice(write-in)Rocky Anderson (write-in)Luis J. Rodriguez217<0.01%0
Freedom Socialist(write-in)Stephen DurhamChristina López34<0.01%0
America's(write-in)Tom HoeflingJ. D. Ellis34<0.01%0
Socialist Workers(write-in)James HarrisMaura DeLuca27<0.01%0
Socialist Equality(write-in)Jerry WhitePhyllis Scherrer19<0.01%0
Twelve Visions(write-in)Jill ReedTom Cary12<0.01%0
American Third Position(write-in)Merlin MillerVirginia Abernethy6<0.01%0
Totals7,081,159100.00%29
Voter Turnout (Registered)59.2%

New York City results

[edit]
2012 presidential election in New York CityManhattanThe BronxBrooklynQueensStaten IslandTotal
Democratic-
Working Families
Barack Obama502,674339,211604,443470,73278,1811,995,24181.19%
83.7%91.45%82.02%79.08%50.7%
Republican-
Conservative
Mitt Romney89,55929,967124,551118,58974,223436,88917.78%
14.92%8.08%16.9%19.9%48.14%
GreenJill Stein3,2416483,6162,12145710,0830.4%
0.5%0.1%0.4%0.35%0.29%
LibertarianGary Johnson2,5745292,0742,0507707,9970.32%
0.69%0.07%0.3%0.34%0.49%
OthersOthers2,2435832,2981,7535497,4260.29%
0.37%0.16%0.31%0.29%0.35%
TOTAL600,291370,938736,982595,245154,1802,457,636100.00%

By county

[edit]
CountyBarack Obama
Democratic
Mitt Romney
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Albany87,55664.49%45,06433.19%3,1472.32%42,49231.30%135,767
Allegany6,13936.21%10,39061.29%4242.50%−4,251−25.08%16,953
Bronx339,21191.45%29,9678.08%1,7600.47%309,24483.37%370,938
Broome41,97051.46%37,64146.15%1,9542.39%4,3295.31%81,565
Cattaraugus12,64942.49%16,56955.66%5491.85%−3,920−13.17%29,767
Cayuga17,00754.58%13,45443.18%7002.24%3,55311.40%31,161
Chautauqua23,81245.05%27,97152.92%1,0692.03%−4,159−7.87%52,852
Chemung16,79747.98%17,61250.31%6011.71%−815−2.33%35,010
Chenango9,11647.20%9,71350.29%4852.51%−597−3.09%19,314
Clinton18,96161.85%11,11536.26%5801.89%7,84625.59%30,656
Columbia16,22155.69%12,22541.97%6832.34%3,99613.72%29,129
Cortland10,48253.41%8,69544.31%4472.28%1,7879.10%19,624
Delaware8,30444.55%9,93853.32%3962.13%−1,634−8.77%18,638
Dutchess65,31252.80%56,02545.29%2,3681.91%9,2877.51%123,705
Erie237,35657.31%169,67540.97%7,1641.72%67,68116.34%414,195
Essex9,78458.53%6,64739.76%2861.71%3,13718.77%16,717
Franklin9,89462.09%5,74036.02%3001.89%4,15426.07%15,934
Fulton8,60743.47%10,81454.62%3781.91%−2,207−11.15%19,799
Genesee9,60138.80%14,60759.03%5382.17%−5,006−20.23%24,746
Greene9,03043.69%11,17454.06%4642.25%−2,144−10.37%20,668
Hamilton1,12836.24%1,93262.06%531.70%−804−25.82%3,113
Herkimer11,27345.02%13,28253.04%4851.94%−2,009−8.02%25,040
Jefferson17,09947.89%18,12250.75%4871.36%−1,023−2.86%35,708
Kings604,44382.02%124,55116.90%7,9881.08%479,89265.12%736,982
Lewis4,72444.90%5,65153.71%1471.39%−927−8.81%10,522
Livingston11,70543.72%14,44853.97%6172.31%−2,743−10.25%26,770
Madison13,87149.37%13,62248.49%6012.14%2490.88%28,094
Monroe193,50157.97%133,36239.95%6,9502.08%60,13918.02%333,813
Montgomery8,49346.70%9,33451.33%3591.97%−841−4.63%18,186
Nassau302,69553.28%259,30845.64%6,1481.08%43,3877.64%568,151
New York502,67483.74%89,55914.92%8,0581.34%413,11568.82%600,291
Niagara43,98649.42%43,24048.58%1,7872.00%7460.84%89,013
Oneida40,46846.68%44,53051.36%1,7021.96%−4,062−4.68%86,700
Onondaga122,25459.72%78,83138.51%3,6321.77%43,42321.21%204,717
Ontario23,08748.25%23,82049.78%9461.97%−733−1.53%47,853
Orange73,31552.13%65,36746.48%1,9461.39%7,9485.65%140,628
Orleans5,78739.35%8,59458.44%3252.21%−2,807−19.09%14,706
Oswego23,51552.73%19,98044.81%1,0962.46%3,5357.92%44,591
Otsego12,11750.20%11,46147.48%5612.32%6562.72%24,139
Putnam19,51244.00%24,08354.31%7501.69%−4,571−10.31%44,345
Queens470,73279.08%118,58919.92%5,9241.00%352,14359.16%595,245
Rensselaer37,40854.96%29,11342.77%1,5402.27%8,29512.19%68,061
Richmond78,18150.71%74,22348.14%1,7761.15%3,9582.57%154,180
Rockland65,79352.78%57,42846.07%1,4241.15%8,3656.71%124,645
Saratoga52,95750.19%50,38247.75%2,1712.06%2,5752.44%105,510
Schenectady36,84456.74%26,56840.92%1,5212.34%10,27615.82%64,933
Schoharie5,42741.09%7,46756.54%3132.37%−2,040−15.45%13,207
Schuyler3,67445.10%4,28152.55%1912.35%−607−7.45%8,146
Seneca7,09453.48%5,88944.39%2832.13%1,2059.09%13,266
St. Lawrence21,35357.41%15,13840.70%7001.89%6,21516.71%37,191
Steuben15,78740.97%21,95456.98%7902.05%−6,167−16.01%38,531
Suffolk304,07951.17%282,13147.48%8,0561.35%21,9483.69%594,266
Sullivan15,26853.73%12,70544.71%4421.56%2,5639.02%28,415
Tioga8,93041.36%12,11756.13%5422.51%−3,187−14.77%21,589
Tompkins27,24468.48%11,10727.92%1,4303.60%16,13740.56%39,781
Ulster47,75259.97%29,75937.37%2,1152.66%17,99322.60%79,626
Warren14,80650.06%14,11947.73%6532.21%6872.33%29,578
Washington11,52349.89%11,08548.00%4872.11%4381.89%23,095
Wayne16,63544.30%20,06053.43%8522.27%−3,425−9.13%37,547
Westchester240,78561.99%143,12236.84%4,5401.17%97,66325.15%388,447
Wyoming5,66134.66%10,34863.35%3261.99%−4,687−28.69%16,335
Yates4,48847.53%4,79850.82%1561.65%−310−3.29%9,442
Totals4,485,87763.35%2,490,49635.17%105,1631.49%1,995,38128.18%7,081,536

See full list of sourcesSee full list of sources

County flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Obama swept 24 of the state's 27 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.[16]

DistrictObamaRomneyRepresentative
1st49.62%49.08%Tim Bishop
2nd51.65%47.23%Peter T. King
3rd50.76%48.21%Steve Israel
4th56.31%42.76%Carolyn McCarthy
5th90.6%9.1%Gregory Meeks
6th67.8%31.05%Grace Meng
7th88.35%10.34%Nydia Velázquez
8th89.26%10.14%Hakeem Jeffries
9th85.28%13.84%Yvette Clarke
10th73.64%25%Jerry Nadler
11th51.6%47.32%Michael Grimm
12th76.92%21.51%Carolyn Maloney
13th94.64%4.56%Charles B. Rangel
14th80.67%18.27%Joe Crowley
15th96.75%3%Jose Serrano
16th73.69%25.53%Eliot Engel
17th57.07%41.84%Nita Lowey
18th51.43%47.15%Sean Patrick Maloney
19th52.12%45.85%Chris Gibson
20th59.2%38.8%Paul Tonko
21st52.24%46.07%Bill Owens
22nd48.76%49.24%Richard L. Hanna
23rd48.38%49.59%Tom Reed
24th57%41.1%Dan Maffei
25th58.77%39.41%Louise Slaughter
26th63.94%34.31%Brian Higgins
27th42.89%55.29%Chris Collins

Analysis

[edit]

As expected, New York gave a landslide win to Obama, with 4,485,877 votes, or 63.35% of the popular vote, 28.18% lead ahead of Romney.[17] It was one of only six states to swing in Obama's favor from 2008, when he won with a 26.85% margin.[18] New York has voted solidly for the Democratic candidate in every election sinceMichael Dukakis in1988, which marked the end of its status as a swing state. This was the greatest ever percentage of the vote won by a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson won 68.56% of the vote in his1964 44-state landslide.

The politics of New York State are dominated by the heavily populated area ofNew York City, which Barack Obama won in a historic landslide, taking 81.19% of the vote and sweeping all 5 boroughs. Obama took 1,995,241 votes in New York City, to Mitt Romney's 436,889. No other presidential candidate of either party has ever received more than 80% of the vote in New York City, and this remains the only time since 2000 that a Democrat won Staten Island, as well as all five boroughs of New York City. This was not only due to its majority liberal and extremely diverse population[how?]. His performance in New York City likely contributed to his improvement from 2008, which was unusual compared to the rest of the country where he underperformed from 2008 (particularly in areas like theMidwest andRust Belt).

He managed to flipStaten Island, which voted forJohn McCain in 2008, as well as improved his margins in all other boroughs except forManhattan. This improved performance is likely attributable to Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29 and had devastating effects on the state, killing 44 people, destroying 250,000 vehicles and 300 homes, damaging 69,000 residential units,[19] and flooding the New York City Subway, all tunnels within the city (except for the Lincoln Tunnel), and many suburban communities.[20] Areas that weren't directly affected by the hurricane were indirectly effected by power outages and major disruption to data communication.[21] Staten Island was hit hardest, with its geographical position combined with weather patterns, causing a 16 feet-high storm tide at its peak, flooding major residential areas.[22] 23 of the 44 deaths from the hurricane were in Staten Island.[23] The federal government's powerful and coordinated response to the hurricane was praised by those on both sides of the political aisle, garneringMayor of New York CityMichael Bloomberg's endorsement,[3] as well as praise from Republican politicians like then New Jersey GovernorChris Christie.[24] This – combined with the media's heavy criticism of Romney's support for a 40% budget cut toFEMA, which would grow to as much as 60% in the coming years – weakened Romney's performance amongst voters across city, including conservatives, especially in the borough ofStaten Island.[25]

The advantage from Hurricane Sandy was also reflected in polls. Prior to the storm, nine nationwide polls listed inReal Clear Politics' database found Romney and Obama each leading in four and one tied. Seven national polls taken after the storm had shown Obama leading in three, four being tied, and Romney leading in none. In particular, a poll byPolitico andGeorge Washington University found Obama's lead increasing in theNortheast from 8 to 20% before and after the storm.[26]

Unlike many rural areas across the country, most notably in the Midwest, rural counties didn't swing especially hard against Obama this election. Most of the political landscape looked roughly the same, with the exception ofChautauqua County flipping red after supporting Obama by a narrow margin in 2008. However, Obama tied with Romney for white voters (who make up a majority of upstate's population but a minority in New York City) according toNew York Times exit polls, a significant decline from 2008 when he won white voters 52 to 46.[27] Discounting New York City's votes, Obama still would have carried New York State, albeit by a closer margin. Excluding New York City, Obama's vote total in the state was 2,490,636 to Romney's 2,053,607, giving Obama a 54.03%–44.54% win outside of NYC.

In terms of exit polls, Obama performed roughly as expected. He won both women and men 68 to 31 and 58 to 42, respectively, and won Black voters 94 to 5 and Hispanic voters 89 to 11. These ethnic groups collectively make up 54.6% of New York City's population, and thus hold great influence in state elections. Obama won all age groups, education levels, and income levels, though he did best amongst 18- to 29-year-olds (72 to 25), those with no college degree (66 to 34), and those with an income under $30,000 (81 to 17), respectively. Obama not only won liberals and registered Democrats, but he also won moderates and independents 63 to 36 and 50 to 44 respectively – these groups make up 42% and 23% of the electorate and were thus vital for Obama to win.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2012 General Election Returns"(PDF). NYS Board of Elections. February 6, 2013. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on June 29, 2019. RetrievedMarch 4, 2013.
  2. ^"Opinion | A Big Storm Requires Big Government".The New York Times. October 29, 2012.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  3. ^abHernandez, Raymond (November 1, 2012)."Bloomberg Backs Obama, Citing Fallout From Storm".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  4. ^"New York Democratic Delegation 2012".www.thegreenpapers.com. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  5. ^ab"Republican Party. Presidential Primary - April 24, 2012"(PDF).elections.ny.gov.
  6. ^"Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2012.
  7. ^"Presidential Primary Dates"(PDF).Federal Election Commission. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2012.
  8. ^"Huffington Post Election Dashboard".HuffPost. Archived fromthe original on August 13, 2013.
  9. ^"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map".CNN. Archived fromthe original on January 19, 2013.
  10. ^"Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory".The New York Times. Archived fromthe original on July 8, 2012.
  11. ^"2012 Presidential Election Results".The Washington Post.Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  12. ^"RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived fromthe original on June 8, 2011.
  13. ^"PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". November 5, 2012.
  14. ^"Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome". November 7, 2012.
  15. ^"NYS Board of Elections President and Vice-President Election Returns Nov. 6, 2012"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on June 29, 2019. RetrievedMay 2, 2013.
  16. ^"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 11, 2020.
  17. ^"New York".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  18. ^"New York - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times".www.nytimes.com. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  19. ^"About Hurricane Sandy".www1.nyc.gov. Archived fromthe original on June 25, 2021. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  20. ^"Hurricane Sandy - New York".www.usgs.gov. July 21, 2015. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  21. ^Troianovski, Anton (November 1, 2012)."A Look inside Verizon's Flooded Communications Hub".The Wall Street Journal.ISSN 0099-9660. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  22. ^Gammon, Crystal (November 7, 2012)."Why Hurricane Sandy Hit Staten Island So Hard".livescience.com. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  23. ^Taylor, Alan."Hurricane Sandy: Staten Island Survivors - The Atlantic".www.theatlantic.com. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  24. ^"Chris Christie and Hurricane Sandy give Obama a timely boost".Los Angeles Times. November 1, 2012. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  25. ^"Politics of FEMA: Mitt Romney Suggested Less Federal Involvement, Paul Ryan Budget Scrutinized".ABC News. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  26. ^Cassidy, John (November 4, 2012)."How Much Did Hurricane Sandy Help Obama?".The New Yorker. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  27. ^"President Exit Polls".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedSeptember 4, 2020.

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