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2012 United States presidential election in New Jersey

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Main article:2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in New Jersey

← 2008
November 6, 2012[a]
2016 →
Turnout66.91%[1] (Decrease 5.78%)
 
NomineeBarack ObamaMitt Romney
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateIllinoisMassachusetts
Running mateJoe BidenPaul Ryan
Electoral vote140
Popular vote2,126,6101,478,749
Percentage58.38%40.59%

County results
Congressional district results
Municipality results

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Romney

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in New Jersey
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The2012 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated. Voters in the state chose 14 electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pittingincumbentDemocraticPresidentBarack Obama and his running mate,Vice PresidentJoe Biden, againstRepublican challenger and formerMassachusetts GovernorMitt Romney and his running mate,CongressmanPaul Ryan.

New Jersey was won by President Obama with 58.38% of the vote to Romney's 40.59%, a 17.79% margin of victory, an increase from 15.53% in 2008.[2] New Jersey was 1 of just 6 states to swing in President Obama's favor between2008 and 2012, giving him the largest vote share for a Democratic presidential nominee in the state sinceLyndon Johnson's1964. Obama won over many municipalities in northeastern New Jersey that voted Republican in 2008.

As of the2024 presidential election, this is the last time a Democrat has wonSalem County.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]

IncumbentBarack Obama ran unopposed[3] in the Democratic primary held on June 5, 2012. He received 283,673 votes[4] according to theSecretary of State, though county clerks' websites report write-in votes as well. The state's 172 delegates voted unanimously for Obama at the2012 Democratic National Convention inCharlotte, North Carolina.[5]

Republican primary

[edit]
2012New Jersey Republican presidential primary

← 2008
June 5, 2012 (2012-06-05)
2016 →
 
CandidateMitt RomneyRon Paul
PartyRepublicanRepublican
Home stateMassachusettsTexas
Delegate count500
Popular vote188,12124,017
Percentage81.3%10.4%

The Republican primary occurred on June 5, 2012.[6][7]

New Jersey sent 50 delegates to theRepublican National Convention on August 5, 2012. All 50 delegates were awarded by a winner-take-all statewide vote. New Jersey Republican Party rules obligate and require the delegates to cast their vote for the winner of the primary on the first 3 ballots at the convention.[8]

New Jersey Republican primary, 2012[4]
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
Mitt Romney188,12181.3%50
Ron Paul24,01710.4%0
Rick Santorum12,1155.2%0
Newt Gingrich7,2123.1%0
Pledged leaders:3
Total:231,465100.0%50
Key:Withdrew prior to contest

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post[9]Safe DNovember 6, 2012
CNN[10]Safe DNovember 6, 2012
New York Times[11]Safe DNovember 6, 2012
Washington Post[12]Safe DNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[13]Solid DNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14]Solid DNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[15]Solid DNovember 6, 2012

Candidate ballot access

[edit]

[16]

Effects of Hurricane Sandy on voting

[edit]

Due to the difficulty of getting to polling places because of the damage caused byHurricane Sandy, voters who were displaced were allowed to request absentee ballots through email, which they would then return by email or fax, as well as mailing the original ballot back by November 19.[17][18]

Various issues and delays were subsequently incurred. Officials were not prepared for the 15 minutes that it took to validate each request, and received many requests from voters not displaced who incorrectly believed they were eligible to participate in the program; due to these delays, email voting was extended until Friday, November 9, at 8 PM. Requests had to be submitted by 5 PM on November 6.[17] On November 26, days before the state's deadline to certify election results, it was reported that the 10,000 or so emailed ballots had yet to be tallied, and officials in several counties remained unaware about the requirement to mail in ballots that had already been sent by email or fax.[19]

It is likely that Obama's response to the hurricane, approved by 77% of Obama voters (with 8% disapproving and 15% unsure) and 44% (with 21% disapproving and 35% unsure) of Romney's voters, boosted his performance in New Jersey, which was hit hard by the superstorm.[20]

Results

[edit]
Vote share by Legislative district
  Romney:
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Obama:
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
2012 United States presidential election in New Jersey[2]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack Obama(incumbent)Joe Biden(incumbent)2,126,61058.25%14
RepublicanMitt RomneyPaul Ryan1,478,74940.50%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonJim Gray21,0450.58%0
GreenJill SteinCheri Honkala9,8880.27%0
ConstitutionVirgil GoodeJim Clymer2,0640.06%0
JusticeRocky AndersonLuis J. Rodriguez1,7240.05%0
NSA Did 911Jeff BossBob Pasternak1,0070.03%0
Socialist WorkersJames HarrisMaura Deluca7100.02%0
American Third PositionMerlin MillerHarry Bertram6640.02%0
Socialism and LiberationPeta LindsayYari Osorio5210.01%0
Totals3,640,292100.00%14
Voter Turnout (Registered)66.4%
Results of the general election bymunicipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Obama
-Red municipalities won by Romney

By county

[edit]
CountyBarack Obama
Democratic
Mitt Romney
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Atlantic65,60057.88%46,52241.04%1,2221.08%19,07816.84%113,344
Bergen212,75455.12%169,07043.80%4,1661.08%43,68411.32%385,990
Burlington126,37758.42%87,40140.40%2,5611.18%38,97618.02%216,339
Camden153,68268.02%69,47630.75%2,7911.23%84,20637.27%225,949
Cape May21,65745.03%25,78153.61%6551.36%-4,124-8.58%48,093
Cumberland34,05561.51%20,65837.31%6561.18%13,39724.20%55,369
Essex237,03577.95%64,76721.30%2,2690.75%172,26856.65%304,071
Gloucester74,01354.59%59,45643.86%2,1011.55%14,55710.73%135,570
Hudson153,10877.45%42,36921.43%2,2171.12%110,73956.02%197,694
Hunterdon26,87640.34%38,68758.07%1,0611.59%-11,811-17.73%66,624
Mercer104,37767.19%47,35530.48%3,6232.33%57,02236.71%155,355
Middlesex190,55563.13%107,31035.55%3,9951.32%83,24527.58%301,860
Monmouth133,82046.84%148,00051.81%3,8471.35%-14,180-4.97%285,667
Morris100,56343.98%125,27954.79%2,8051.23%-24,716-10.81%228,647
Ocean102,30040.62%146,47558.16%3,0791.22%-44,175-17.54%251,854
Passaic115,92663.62%64,52335.41%1,7650.97%51,40328.21%182,214
Salem14,71949.69%14,33448.39%5701.92%3851.30%29,623
Somerset74,59252.10%66,60346.52%1,9851.38%7,9895.58%143,180
Sussex26,10438.28%40,62559.57%1,4652.15%-14,521-21.29%68,194
Union139,75266.52%68,31432.52%2,0220.96%71,43834.00%210,088
Warren18,74541.27%25,74456.69%9262.04%-6,999-15.42%45,415
Totals2,126,61058.25%1,478,74940.50%45,7811.25%647,86117.75%3,651,140
Shift by county
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Republican — >15%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
  •   Democratic — +12.5−15%
  •   Democratic — >15%

By congressional district

[edit]

Obama won eight of 12 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[21]

DistrictObamaRomneyRepresentative
1st65%34%Rob Andrews
2nd54%45%Frank LoBiondo
3rd52%47%Jon Runyan
4th45%54%Chris Smith
5th49%51%Scott Garrett
6th61%37%Frank Pallone Jr.
7th46%53%Leonard Lance
8th78%21%Albio Sires
9th68%31%Bill Pascrell
10th88%12%Donald Payne Jr.
11th47%52%Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th67%32%Rush Holt Jr.

Analysis

[edit]

New Jersey was one of just six states that voted more Democratic in 2012 than it had in 2008. In2008,Obama won the state by roughly 602,000 votes, whereas in 2012, this margin increased to about 648,000 votes. Obama's increased statewide margin owed itself to larger Democratic margins in several central and northern counties. InMiddlesex,Hudson,Passaic, andUnion Counties collectively, Obama netted nearly 45,000 additional votes compared to 2008. Outside of these four counties, most others in the state had comparable margins to 2008.

Turnout patterns relative to 2008 arguably helped Obama increase his statewide margin. Every county cast fewer votes in 2012 than in 2008, but not uniformly so. Perhaps due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, conservativeMonmouth County saw the largest percentage decrease in votes cast from 2008, withOcean County also witnessing a substantial decline in votes cast. In the northwestern part of the state, strongly RepublicanSussex andWarren County experienced moderately lower turnout. In terms of raw votes cast,Passaic County, which was strongly Democratic, came closest to its 2008 figures, with just 5,000 fewer votes cast in 2012 than in 2008.

Obama's improved performance was quite unusual as his performance worsened in most other areas of the nation (particularly theMidwest andRust Belt). It is likely this was due to his widely approved response to Hurricane Sandy, which had a devastating effect on the state, causing two million households to lose power, destroying 346,000 homes,[22] and causing blockades on bridges and roads for up to two weeks.[23] Obama's response to the superstorm also likely contributed to his improved performance. According to a poll conducted byABC News andThe Washington Post, not only did 77% of Obama's voters approve of his handling of the storm (with 8% disapproving and 15% unsure), he also received a plurality amongst Romney voters, with 44% approving of his handling, 21% disapproving, and 35% unsure.[20] Another poll by thePew Research Center found that 67% of registered voters approved of Obama's response with only 15% disapproving.[24]Chris Christie, the state'sRepublican governor called Obama's response to the hurricane "outstanding" and praised him for his frequent coordination with the New Jersey government, potentially boosted his popularity amongst Republican voters.[25]

2012 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Minor parties
Related races
← 2008
2016 →

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Some voters in areas affected byHurricane Sandy were allowed to cast votes through November 9.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"General Election Data - 1924 to 2022"(PDF).NJ.gov.
  2. ^ab"New Jersey Division of Elections Official General Election Results"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on May 9, 2013. RetrievedDecember 7, 2012.
  3. ^"Official List Candidates for president For PRIMARY ELECTION 06/05/2012 Election"(PDF). New Jersey Department of State - Division of Elections. April 12, 2012. RetrievedDecember 11, 2012.
  4. ^ab"Official List Candidates for president For PRIMARY ELECTION 06/05/2012 Election"(PDF). New Jersey Department of State - Division of Elections. July 23, 2012. RetrievedDecember 11, 2012.
  5. ^"New Jersey Democratic Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. November 17, 2012. RetrievedDecember 11, 2012.
  6. ^"Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2012.
  7. ^"Presidential Primary Dates"(PDF).Federal Election Commission. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2012.
  8. ^"2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions". The Green Papers. RetrievedMarch 4, 2012.
  9. ^"Huffington Post Election Dashboard".HuffPost. Archived fromthe original on August 13, 2013.
  10. ^"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map".CNN. Archived fromthe original on January 19, 2013.
  11. ^"Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory".The New York Times. Archived fromthe original on July 8, 2012.
  12. ^"2012 Presidential Election Results".The Washington Post.Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  13. ^"RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived fromthe original on June 8, 2011.
  14. ^"PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  15. ^"Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  16. ^"Official List Candidates for president For GENERAL ELECTION 11/06/2012 Election"(PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State - Division of Elections. September 13, 2012. RetrievedDecember 11, 2012.
  17. ^ab"New Jersey's email voting suffers major glitches, deadline extended to Friday". Archived fromthe original on November 9, 2012. RetrievedNovember 9, 2012.
  18. ^Sternstein, Aliya (November 6, 2012)."New Jersey email votes shouldn't be counted yet, experts say".NextGov. RetrievedAugust 31, 2024.
  19. ^Freiss, Steve (November 26, 2012)."Sandy disrupts N.J. email voting".Politico. RetrievedAugust 31, 2024.
  20. ^abClement, Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott (October 31, 2012)."WaPo-ABC tracking poll: High marks for President Obama on Hurricane Sandy response".The Washington Post.ISSN 0190-8286. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  21. ^"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 11, 2020.
  22. ^Chris Smith (New Jersey politician) (January 2, 2013)."Floor statement on Sandy supplemental"(PDF).United States House of Representatives.
  23. ^Star-Ledger, Mike Frassinelli/The (November 2, 2012)."N.J. to get $10M in emergency relief to repair roads, bridges in wake of Sandy".nj. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  24. ^Cassidy, John (November 4, 2012)."How Much Did Hurricane Sandy Help Obama?".The New Yorker. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.
  25. ^Robillard, Kevin."Christie heaps praise on Obama".POLITICO. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2020.

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