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2012 United States presidential election in Kentucky

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Main article:2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in Kentucky

← 2008
November 6, 2012
2016 →
Turnout59.70%[1]Decrease
 
NomineeMitt RomneyBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateMassachusettsIllinois
Running matePaul RyanJoe Biden
Electoral vote80
Popular vote1,087,190679,370
Percentage60.49%37.80%

County results
Congressional district results

Romney

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The2012 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the2012 General Election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Kentucky voters chose eight electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pittingincumbentDemocraticPresidentBarack Obama and his running mate,Vice PresidentJoe Biden, againstRepublican challenger and formerMassachusetts GovernorMitt Romney and his running mate,CongressmanPaul Ryan.

Romney carried Kentucky by a landslide margin, winning 60.47% of the vote to Obama's 37.78%. This represented a margin of 22.69%, a great improvement for the Republican Party from2008, when they won with a 16.22% margin. Although Kentucky had been won by Southern DemocratBill Clinton twice in the 1990s, Obama was seen as a poor cultural fit for the state, and he did not compete here either time he ran. The Romney campaign also attacked Obama's administration as being hostile to thecoal industry, historically an important part of the state's economy. Consequently, Obama suffered a historically poor showing in the traditionally staunchly Democratic coalfields ofEastern Kentucky, where many counties that had even voted by wide margins for landslide Democratic losers likeGeorge McGovern andWalter Mondale defected to the Republicans in 2012.

Knott County, which had given Clinton 73% of the vote in1996 and nearly 72% to Mondale in1984 (despite the latter losing nationally by more than 18 percentage points and only carrying one state), gave Romney 73% of the vote in 2012. EvenElliott County, the only county in the state in which Obama had broken 60% in 2008, barely held on in 2012, giving Obama a narrow plurality win, his only victory in the region, and one of just four county wins in the entire state. This marked the first time since the county's founding that the Democratic nominee won less than 60% of the vote in Elliott County, and would prove to be the conclusion of Elliott's longest-in-the-nation, 140-year Democratic voting streak. The county would flip to the GOP by a landslide marginfour years later.Wolfe County, which had returned to the Democratic Party in2004 and2008 after casting its first-ever Republican vote forGeorge W. Bush in2000, went for Romney by over twenty points. As such, Obama became the first Democrat to ever win the White House without carrying Wolfe County since its founding in 1860,Menifee County since its founding in 1869, or Henderson County since the founding of the Republican Party.

The only part of the state where Obama won convincingly wasJefferson County, the most urban and populous county in the state, and home toLouisville. He also eked out a close win inFayette County, the second-most populous county, home toLexington. Despite losing five counties he won in 2008, he managed to flipFranklin County, home to the state capital ofFrankfort, which he had narrowly lost in 2008. As of the2024 presidential election, this is the last time that Elliott and Franklin Counties voted for a Democrat in a presidential election. Obama is the only Democrat to ever win two terms without carrying the state at least once.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Kentucky Democratic primary, 2012

← 2008
May 22, 2012 (2012-05-22)
2016 →
 
CandidateBarack ObamaUncommitted
Home stateIllinoisn/a
Delegate count3934
Popular vote119,29386,925
Percentage57.85%42.15%


  Barack Obama
  Uncommitted
  Tie
County Winner

Obama:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Uncommitted:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%Vote share
Kentucky results by county

Barack Obama's only "opponent" in the primary was the "Uncommitted" ballot option, which garnered more than 42% of the primary vote, making Kentucky one of Obama's worst contested primary results.[2]

Kentucky Democratic primary, 2012[3]
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
Barack Obama(incumbent)119,29357.85%39
Uncommitted86,92542.15%34

Republican primary

[edit]
Kentucky Republican primary, 2012

← 2008
May 22, 2012 (2012-05-22)
2016 →
 
CandidateMitt RomneyRon PaulRick Santorum
Home stateMassachusettsTexasPennsylvania
Delegate count4200
Popular vote117,62122,07415,629
Percentage66.77%12.53%8.87%

 
CandidateNewt GingrichUncommitted
Home stateGeorgiaN/A
Delegate count00
Popular vote10,47910,357
Percentage5.95%5.88%

Kentucky results by county
  Mitt Romney
(Note:Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)
Elections in Kentucky
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← 2008
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The Republican primary occurred on May 22, 2012.[4][5] 42 delegates were chosen, all of which were allocated to and pledged to vote forMitt Romney at the2012 Republican National Convention. Three delegates remain unpledged to any candidate. AllRepublicans in Kentucky were allowed to participate in the primary. ARepublican primary was also held in Arkansas on this day.

Rick Santorum andNewt Gingrich withdrew from thepresidential race on April 10 and May 2, 2012, respectively. Both endorsed Romney as theRepublican nominee.

Kentucky Republican primary, 2012[6]
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
Mitt Romney117,62166.8%42
Ron Paul22,07412.53%0
Rick Santorum15,6298.87%0
Newt Gingrich10,4795.95%0
Uncommitted10,3575.88%0
Unpledged delegates:3
Total:176,160100.00%45
Key:Withdrew prior to contest

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post[7]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
CNN[8]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
New York Times[9]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
Washington Post[10]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[11]Solid RNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12]Solid RNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[13]Solid RNovember 6, 2012

Results

[edit]
United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2012[14]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanMitt RomneyPaul Ryan1,087,19060.47%8
DemocraticBarack Obama (incumbent)Joe Biden (incumbent)679,37037.78%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonJim Gray17,0630.95%0
IndependentRandall TerryMissy Smith6,8720.38%0
GreenJill SteinCheri Honkala6,3370.35%0
Others3800.02%0
Totals1,797,212100.00%8
Voter turnout (registered voters)59.24%

By county

[edit]
CountyMitt Romney
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair5,84176.86%1,66021.84%991.30%4,18155.02%7,600
Allen5,18473.01%1,80825.46%1081.53%3,37647.55%7,100
Anderson6,82266.10%3,31532.12%1831.78%3,50733.98%10,320
Ballard2,64767.96%1,18930.53%591.51%1,45837.43%3,895
Barren10,92265.92%5,40032.59%2461.49%5,52233.33%16,568
Bath2,27555.19%1,77042.94%771.87%50512.25%4,122
Bell7,12775.16%2,22423.45%1311.39%4,90351.71%9,482
Boone35,92268.41%15,62929.76%9601.83%20,29338.65%52,511
Bourbon4,69259.22%3,07538.81%1561.97%1,61720.41%7,923
Boyd10,88457.14%7,77640.82%3892.04%3,10816.32%19,049
Boyle7,70362.26%4,47136.14%1991.60%3,23226.12%12,373
Bracken2,02962.78%1,14735.49%561.73%88227.29%3,232
Breathitt3,31866.25%1,56231.19%1282.56%1,75635.06%5,008
Breckinridge5,02563.06%2,82535.45%1191.49%2,20027.61%7,969
Bullitt21,30667.04%9,97131.38%5021.58%11,33535.66%31,779
Butler3,71673.44%1,29325.55%511.01%2,42347.89%5,060
Caldwell3,90466.62%1,85231.60%1041.78%2,05235.02%5,860
Calloway9,44062.63%5,31735.28%3152.09%4,12327.35%15,072
Campbell24,24060.33%15,08037.53%8572.14%9,16022.80%40,177
Carlisle1,83570.06%75028.64%341.30%1,08541.42%2,619
Carroll1,99954.32%1,62944.27%521.41%37010.05%3,680
Carter5,27959.26%3,38337.98%2462.76%1,89621.28%8,908
Casey4,90480.51%1,08617.83%1011.66%3,81862.68%6,091
Christian13,47561.38%8,25237.59%2281.03%5,22323.79%21,955
Clark9,93164.42%5,22833.91%2571.67%4,70330.51%15,416
Clay6,17683.65%1,11115.05%961.30%5,06568.60%7,383
Clinton3,56981.24%75217.12%721.64%2,81764.12%4,393
Crittenden2,83973.66%96024.91%551.43%1,87948.75%3,854
Cumberland2,21677.65%59920.99%391.36%1,61756.66%2,854
Daviess25,09259.62%16,20838.51%7871.87%8,88421.11%42,087
Edmonson3,23269.24%1,37429.43%621.33%1,85839.81%4,668
Elliott1,12646.94%1,18649.44%873.62%-60-2.50%2,399
Estill3,74972.32%1,35626.16%791.52%2,39346.16%5,184
Fayette60,79548.30%62,08049.32%2,9912.38%-1,285-1.02%125,866
Fleming3,78065.38%1,91133.05%911.57%1,86932.33%5,782
Floyd9,78465.71%4,73331.79%3732.50%5,05133.92%14,890
Franklin11,34548.61%11,53549.43%4571.96%-190-0.82%23,337
Fulton1,42557.44%1,02241.19%341.37%40316.25%2,481
Gallatin1,75857.43%1,23840.44%652.13%52016.99%3,061
Garrard5,31075.03%1,66123.47%1061.50%3,64951.56%7,077
Grant5,66465.80%2,81032.64%1341.56%2,85433.16%8,608
Graves10,69969.01%4,54729.33%2571.66%6,15239.68%15,503
Grayson6,40469.08%2,74429.60%1231.32%3,66039.48%9,271
Green3,63474.84%1,16523.99%571.17%2,46950.85%4,856
Greenup8,85558.38%6,02739.73%2861.89%2,82818.65%15,168
Hancock2,21253.51%1,83344.34%892.15%3799.17%4,134
Hardin23,35759.56%15,21438.79%6471.65%8,14320.77%39,218
Harlan8,65281.19%1,83017.17%1751.64%6,82264.02%10,657
Harrison4,55663.60%2,47134.50%1361.90%2,08529.10%7,163
Hart4,25764.29%2,28334.48%821.23%1,97429.81%6,622
Henderson10,29655.29%8,09143.45%2351.26%2,20511.84%18,622
Henry3,94059.79%2,53038.39%1201.82%1,41021.40%6,590
Hickman1,43166.90%68632.07%221.03%74534.83%2,139
Hopkins13,68169.21%5,78929.29%2971.50%7,89239.92%19,767
Jackson4,36586.25%61212.09%841.66%3,75374.16%5,061
Jefferson148,42343.60%186,18154.69%5,8081.71%-37,758-11.09%340,412
Jessamine14,23368.98%6,00129.08%3991.94%8,23239.90%20,633
Johnson7,09578.53%1,72319.07%2172.40%5,37259.46%9,035
Kenton41,38961.13%24,92036.81%1,3952.06%16,46924.32%67,704
Knott4,13072.55%1,42024.94%1432.51%2,71047.61%5,693
Knox8,46776.28%2,48422.38%1491.34%5,98353.90%11,100
LaRue3,91167.85%1,73330.07%1202.08%2,17837.78%5,764
Laurel18,15181.00%3,90517.43%3521.57%14,24663.57%22,408
Lawrence3,99571.44%1,52027.18%771.38%2,47544.26%5,592
Lee1,97775.37%59522.68%511.95%1,38252.69%2,623
Leslie4,43989.62%4338.74%811.64%4,00680.88%4,953
Letcher6,81177.77%1,70219.43%2452.80%5,10958.34%8,758
Lewis3,32669.74%1,34228.14%1012.12%1,98441.60%4,769
Lincoln6,41670.10%2,58228.21%1541.69%3,83441.89%9,152
Livingston3,08968.48%1,34629.84%761.68%1,74338.64%4,511
Logan6,89965.64%3,46933.01%1421.35%3,43032.63%10,510
Lyon2,41262.83%1,37335.76%541.41%1,03927.07%3,839
Madison21,12863.41%11,51234.55%6822.04%9,61628.86%33,322
Magoffin3,39169.12%1,43329.21%821.67%1,95839.91%4,906
Marion3,80051.93%3,41846.71%1001.36%3825.22%7,318
Marshall10,40266.17%5,02231.95%2951.88%5,38034.22%15,719
Martin3,18083.16%57415.01%701.83%2,60668.15%3,824
Mason4,19760.99%2,59237.67%921.34%1,60523.32%6,881
McCracken19,97965.40%10,06232.94%5101.66%9,91732.46%30,551
McCreary4,56479.97%1,06918.73%741.30%3,49561.24%5,707
McLean2,70564.40%1,43234.10%631.50%1,27330.30%4,200
Meade6,60660.52%4,12237.76%1881.72%2,48422.76%10,916
Menifee1,48457.12%1,04840.34%662.54%43616.78%2,598
Mercer6,82068.62%2,96629.84%1531.54%3,85438.78%9,939
Metcalfe2,67663.96%1,42534.06%831.98%1,25129.90%4,184
Monroe3,76279.27%93619.72%481.01%2,82659.55%4,746
Montgomery6,39862.43%3,70136.11%1491.46%2,69726.32%10,248
Morgan3,02167.55%1,36930.61%821.84%1,65236.94%4,472
Muhlenberg7,76260.93%4,77137.45%2061.62%2,99123.48%12,739
Nelson10,67357.59%7,61141.07%2491.34%3,06216.52%18,533
Nicholas1,58361.33%94836.73%501.94%63524.60%2,581
Ohio6,47067.07%2,98730.97%1891.96%3,48336.10%9,646
Oldham20,17967.52%9,24030.92%4651.56%10,93936.60%29,884
Owen2,97165.20%1,50132.94%851.86%1,47032.26%4,557
Owsley1,27980.95%28317.91%181.14%99663.04%1,580
Pendleton3,55664.26%1,85933.59%1192.15%1,69730.67%5,534
Perry8,04078.51%2,04719.99%1541.50%5,99358.52%10,241
Pike17,59074.42%5,64623.89%4001.69%11,94450.53%23,636
Powell2,76661.73%1,62036.15%952.12%1,14625.58%4,481
Pulaski20,71479.66%4,97619.14%3131.20%15,73860.52%26,003
Robertson57961.93%34036.36%161.71%23925.57%935
Rockcastle5,02880.89%1,09717.65%911.46%3,93163.24%6,216
Rowan4,03552.64%3,43844.85%1922.51%5977.79%7,665
Russell6,34680.24%1,44518.27%1181.49%4,90161.97%7,909
Scott12,67961.63%7,53236.61%3621.76%5,14725.02%20,573
Shelby11,79063.17%6,63435.55%2391.28%5,15627.62%18,663
Simpson4,35561.40%2,65037.36%881.24%1,70524.04%7,093
Spencer5,72667.92%2,54930.23%1561.85%3,17737.69%8,431
Taylor7,55168.96%3,28530.00%1141.04%4,26638.96%10,950
Todd3,24768.82%1,40329.74%681.44%1,84439.08%4,718
Trigg4,52067.04%2,11531.37%1071.59%2,40535.67%6,742
Trimble2,13360.20%1,35538.24%551.56%77821.96%3,543
Union3,95566.15%1,94232.48%821.37%2,01333.67%5,979
Warren26,38460.10%16,80538.28%7141.62%9,57921.82%43,903
Washington3,49566.97%1,66931.98%551.05%1,82634.99%5,219
Wayne5,28973.36%1,85525.73%660.91%3,43447.63%7,210
Webster3,60765.94%1,76532.27%981.79%1,84233.67%5,470
Whitley10,23278.27%2,68320.52%1571.21%7,54957.75%13,072
Wolfe1,54260.26%97638.14%411.60%56622.12%2,559
Woodford7,21958.54%4,88339.60%2301.86%2,33618.94%12,332
Totals1,087,19060.47%679,37037.78%31,4881.75%407,82022.69%1,798,048
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Romney won five of six congressional districts.[15]

DistrictRomneyObamaRepresentative
1st66.4%32.1%Ed Whitfield
2nd63.28%35.15%Brett Guthrie
3rd42.8%55.73%John Yarmuth
4th63.38%34.83%Thomas Massie
5th75%23.25%Hal Rogers
6th55.8%42.16%Andy Barr

Analysis

[edit]

On election night,Kentucky went as expected to theRepublican candidate, formerMassachusetts GovernorMitt Romney, over incumbentDemocratic PresidentBarack Obama of borderingIllinois. Obama was reelected but nonetheless, lostKentucky. In most recent years, Democrats have maintained their lead in registered voters compared to Republicans.[16] However, Kentucky is known as a highly conservative state with a populist streak. In most recent presidential elections in Kentucky, Democrats usually achieve lower 40 or upper 30% margins. Obama performed significantly worse in 2012 than he did in 2008.Appalachian Kentucky used to be a place were Democrats thrived because of working-class people, particularly unionized coal miners.[17] However, this region has become increasingly Republican in recent years. Romney performed, for the most part, very well statewide. Obama won four counties. Obama was, however, able to maintain a solid performance in perhaps the most Democratic place in the state,Jefferson County (Louisville Metro). The other counties Obama won wereFranklin,Elliott andFayette.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Summary TXT file".
  2. ^Dougherty, Michael Brendan (May 22, 2012)."Obama Is Getting Humiliated In The Kentucky Primary, 40 Percent Of Democrats Voted For 'Uncommitted'".Business Insider. RetrievedJuly 9, 2019.
  3. ^"Kentucky Secretary of State"(PDF).elect.ky.gov. May 22, 2012. RetrievedJune 19, 2016.
  4. ^"Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2012.
  5. ^"Presidential Primary Dates"(PDF).Federal Election Commission. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2012.
  6. ^"Kentucky State Board of Elections".
  7. ^"Huffington Post Election Dashboard".HuffPost. Archived fromthe original on August 13, 2013.
  8. ^"America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map".CNN. Archived fromthe original on January 19, 2013.
  9. ^"Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory".The New York Times. Archived fromthe original on July 8, 2012.
  10. ^"2012 Presidential Election Results".The Washington Post.Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  11. ^"RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived fromthe original on June 8, 2011.
  12. ^"PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  13. ^"Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  14. ^"Kentucky State Board of Elections". Kentucky State Board of Elections.
  15. ^"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 11, 2020.
  16. ^"Registration Statistics – State Board of Elections".elect.ky.gov. Archived fromthe original on January 1, 2018. RetrievedDecember 2, 2017.
  17. ^"Appalachia Used To Be A Democratic Stronghold. Here's How To Make It One Again". RetrievedDecember 2, 2017.

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