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2012 Montana gubernatorial election

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For related races, see2012 United States gubernatorial elections.

2012 Montana gubernatorial election
← 2008November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)2016 →
Turnout72.18%Decrease2.32[1]
 
NomineeSteve BullockRick Hill
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Running mateJohn WalshJon Sonju
Popular vote236,450228,879
Percentage48.90%47.34%
County results
Bullock:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Hill:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Governor before election

Brian Schweitzer
Democratic

Elected Governor

Steve Bullock
Democratic

Elections in Montana
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2000
2004
2008
2016
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Republican
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The2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect thegovernor of Montana. IncumbentDemocratic governorBrian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.

Montana Attorney GeneralSteve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. representativeRick Hill won theRepublican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%.[2] With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind onlythe election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.[3] This was the last time anyone other thanGreg Gianforte was the Republican nominee.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Bullock		Larry
Jent		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[11]November 28–30, 2011573± 4.1%70%6%—24%

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticSteve Bullock76,73886.6
DemocraticHeather Margolis11,82313.4
Total votes88,561100.0

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Bob Fanning, retired businessman[13]
  • Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director[20]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jeff
Essmann		Bob
Fanning		Rick
Hill		Neil
Livingstone		Jim
Lynch		Ken
Miller		Jim
O'Hara		Corey
Stapleton		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[32]April 26–29, 2012403± 4.88%—1%33%5%4%12%4%7%35%
Public Policy Polling[33]November 28–30, 2011700± 3.7%5%1%37%3%4%10%3%2%35%

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county:
Hill
  •   Hill—51-60%
  •   Hill—41-50%
  •   Hill—31-40%
  •   Hill—21-30%
Stapleton
  •   Stapleton—31-40%
  •   Stapleton—21-30%
Miller
  •   Miller—51-60%
  •   Miller—41-50%
  •   Miller—31-40%
  •   Miller—21-30%
O'Hara
  •   O'Hara—51-60%
  •   O'Hara—31-40%
Republican primary results[12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRick Hill46,80234.4
RepublicanCorey Stapleton24,66118.1
RepublicanKen Miller24,49618.0
RepublicanJim O'Hara16,65312.2
RepublicanNeil Livingstone12,0388.8
RepublicanJim Lynch8,3236.1
RepublicanBob Fanning3,0872.3
Total votes136,060100.0

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
  • Running mate:John Walsh, brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
  • Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman[34]
  • Running mate: Marc Mulcahy[14]

Debate

[edit]

Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[35]TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[36]Lean R(flip)November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[37]TossupNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[38]TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Steve
Bullock (D)		Rick
Hill (R)		Other/Undecided
[a]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[39]September 27 – November 3, 2012November 3, 201244.0%45.7%10.3%Hill +1.7%
This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Bullock (D)		Rick
Hill (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[40]November 2–3, 2012836± 3.4%48%48%2%2%
Mason-Dixon[41]October 29–31, 2012625± 4.0%46%49%2%3%
Public Policy Polling[42]October 8–10, 2012737± 3.6%42%43%8%7%
Montana State University[43]September 27–30, 2012477± 4.6%38%40%2%20%
Mason-Dixon[44]September 17–19, 2012625± 4.0%44%43%2%11%
Public Policy Polling[45]September 10–11, 2012656± 3.2%44%39%8%9%
Public Policy Polling[32]April 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%39%39%—21%
Public Policy Polling[11]November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%38%39%—23%
Public Policy Polling[46]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%37%39%—23%
Public Policy Polling[47]November 10–13, 20101,176± 2.9%31%41%—28%
Hypothetical polling

With Bohlinger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Bohlinger (D)		Jeff
Essmann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[46]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%40%33%—28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Bohlinger (D)		Rick
Hill (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[46]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%39%40%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Bohlinger (D)		Ken
Miller (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[46]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%39%33%—28%

With Bullock

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Bullock (D)		Jeff
Essmann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[11]November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%42%30%—28%
Public Policy Polling[46]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%38%33%—28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Bullock (D)		Neil
Livingstone (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[11]November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%41%29%—30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Bullock (D)		Ken
Miller (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[32]April 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%41%35%—24%
Public Policy Polling[11]November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%40%31%—29%
Public Policy Polling[46]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%38%34%—28%

With Jent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Larry
Jent (D)		Rick
Hill (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[11]November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%26%39%—35%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Larry
Jent (D)		Neil
Livingstone (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[11]November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%26%30%—44%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Larry
Jent (D)		Ken
Miller (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[11]November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%25%33%—42%

With Wanzenried

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Dave
Wanzenried (D)		Jeff
Essmann (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[46]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%31%33%—36%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Dave
Wanzenried (D)		Rick
Hill (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[46]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%30%40%—30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Dave
Wanzenried (D)		Ken
Miller (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[46]June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%30%35%—35%

Results

[edit]
2012 Montana gubernatorial election[48]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticSteve Bullock236,45048.90%−16.57%
RepublicanRick Hill228,87947.34%+14.82%
LibertarianRon Vandevender18,1603.76%+1.75%
Total votes483,489100.00%N/A
Democratichold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Montana Voter Turnout".Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. RetrievedMay 26, 2022.
  2. ^Michael Barone, et al.The Almanac of American Politics 2014 (2013) (Kindle Locations 48242-48245).
  3. ^Charles S. Johnson (November 6, 2012)."Networks declare Bullock winner in tight race for governor".Montana Standard.
  4. ^Catanese, David (September 7, 2011)."Bullock joins Montana governor's race".Politico. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2011.
  5. ^Johnson, Charles S. (March 9, 2012)."Bullock makes pick of Walsh as running mate official".Independent Record. RetrievedMarch 11, 2012.
  6. ^Banks, Marnee (March 12, 2012)."Democrats Margolis & Nelsen enter race for MT Governor".KXLF-TV. Archived fromthe original on January 27, 2013. RetrievedMarch 14, 2012.
  7. ^Johnson, Charles S. (March 8, 2012)."Jent drops out of governor's race, leaving Bullock as lone Democrat".Billings Gazette. RetrievedMarch 9, 2012.
  8. ^abJohnson, Charles S. (June 12, 2011)."Bohlinger, Essmann eye governor's race".Billings Gazette. RetrievedJune 15, 2011.
  9. ^Charles S. Johnson (July 7, 2011)."Wanzenried ends run for governor".Billings Gazette.
  10. ^Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010)."Pat Williams not running for governor".Billings Gazette. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2011.
  11. ^abcdefghPublic Policy Polling
  12. ^ab"2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS"(PDF).Secretary of State of Montana. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on January 21, 2013. RetrievedSeptember 24, 2012.
  13. ^Johnson, Charles S. (October 4, 2011)."3 more GOP candidates running for governor".Billings Gazette. RetrievedOctober 5, 2011.
  14. ^abBanks, Marnee (March 12, 2012)."Long list of candidates running for U.S. House & MT Governor".KRTV. Archived fromthe original on January 27, 2013. RetrievedMarch 14, 2012.
  15. ^Banks, Marnee (February 13, 2012)."MT gubernatorial candidate Fanning loses running mate".KTVQ. Archived fromthe original on January 19, 2015. RetrievedMarch 11, 2012.
  16. ^Johnson, Charles S. (November 6, 2010)."Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor".Billings Gazette. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2011.
  17. ^Reece, Myers (January 18, 2012)."Rick Hill Announces Jon Sonju as Gubernatorial Running Mate".Flathead Beacon. RetrievedMarch 11, 2012.
  18. ^"Terrorism expert files for Montana governor's race".Associated Press. February 12, 2011. RetrievedFebruary 12, 2011.
  19. ^Johnson, Charles S. (July 10, 2011)."Livingstone taps Zinke as running mate".Billings Gazette. RetrievedMarch 11, 2012.
  20. ^"Jim Lynch announces candidacy for Governor".KTVQ. October 13, 2011. Archived fromthe original on October 23, 2011. RetrievedOctober 14, 2011.
  21. ^Sherman, David (March 12, 2012)."Lynch names Olszewski as running mate in MT governor race".KRTV. Archived fromthe original on January 27, 2013. RetrievedMarch 14, 2012.
  22. ^Dennison, Mike (August 9, 2010)."Republican former state senator from Laurel formally enters 2012 governor's race".Billings Gazette. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2011.
  23. ^Reece, Myers (February 6, 2012)."Ken Miller Announces Bill Gallagher as Gubernatorial Running Mate".Flathead Beacon. RetrievedMarch 11, 2012.
  24. ^Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011)."Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor".KFBB-TV. Archived fromthe original on July 13, 2011. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2011.
  25. ^Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012)."O'Hara picks retired MHP officer as running mate".Billings Gazette. RetrievedMarch 11, 2012.
  26. ^Johnson, Charles S. (July 19, 2010)."Stapleton bidding for governor".Billings Gazette. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2011.
  27. ^Johnson, Charles S. (February 7, 2012)."Stapleton picks Keenan for running mate".Billings Gazette. RetrievedMarch 11, 2012.
  28. ^"Essmann drops out of GOP race for governor".Billingsgazette.com. January 27, 2012. RetrievedJanuary 5, 2018.
  29. ^[1][dead link]
  30. ^"Turiano Drops Gubernatorial Bid".Flathead Beacon. January 17, 2012. RetrievedMarch 11, 2021.
  31. ^Johnson, Charles S. (November 11, 2010)."Rehberg focusing on current job".Billings Gazette. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2011.
  32. ^abcPublic Policy Polling
  33. ^Public Policy Polling
  34. ^Johnson, Charles S. (March 1, 2012)."Governor candidates talk about state economy".Independent Record. RetrievedMarch 14, 2012.
  35. ^"2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedNovember 30, 2018.
  36. ^"PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived fromthe original on December 1, 2018. RetrievedNovember 30, 2018.
  37. ^"2012 Gubernatorial Ratings".Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedNovember 30, 2018.
  38. ^"2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedNovember 30, 2018.
  39. ^Real Clear Politics
  40. ^Public Policy Polling
  41. ^Mason-Dixon
  42. ^Public Policy Polling
  43. ^Montana State University
  44. ^Mason-Dixon
  45. ^Public Policy Polling
  46. ^abcdefghiPublic Policy Polling
  47. ^Public Policy Polling
  48. ^"2012 Statewide General Election Canvass"(PDF). Montana Secretary of State. RetrievedJanuary 13, 2019.

External links

[edit]

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