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All 88 seats in theVictorian Legislative Assembly All 40 seats in theVictorian Legislative Council 45 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Results in each electorate. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The2010 Victorian state election, held on Saturday, 27 November 2010, was for the 57thParliament of Victoria. The election was to elect all 88 members of theLegislative Assembly and all 40 members of theLegislative Council.
The incumbentcentre-leftLabor Party government, led byJohn Brumby, was defeated by thecentre-rightLiberal/NationalCoalition opposition, led byTed Baillieu. The election gave the Coalition a one-seat majority in both houses of parliament. Baillieu's multicultural advisersGladys Liu, and Nitin Gupta[1] helped in attracting multicultural votes towards the Liberal party in marginal seats that mattered.[2][3]
Voting iscompulsory in Victoria. Elections for theLegislative Assembly useinstant-runoff voting (called preferential voting in Australia) insingle-member electorates (called districts). Elections for theLegislative Council use partialproportional representation, usingsingle transferable vote (also called preferential voting) in multi-member electorates (called regions). Members of the Legislative Council are elected from eight electoral regions each returning five members, making the quota for election in each region 16.67 percent of valid votes cast in that region. The election was conducted by theVictorian Electoral Commission (VEC).
At the1999 election, the Labor Party led bySteve Bracks was able to form aminority government with the parliamentary support of 3 Independents, displacing the incumbentJeff Kennett Liberal/National Coalition government. Labor was returned with amajority government after a landslide win at the2002 election. Labor was elected for a third term at the2006 election with a substantial but reduced majority. Labor won 55 of the 88 seats, a decrease of 7, and 54.4% of thetwo-party preferred vote, a decrease of 3.4%. Brumby replaced Bracks as Labor leader and Premier of Victoria in 2007.
The previous elections took place on Saturday, 25 November 2006. At the2006 election, theLabor Party won 55 of the 88 seats, theLiberal Party won 23, theNational Party won 9, and there was 1 Independent. Since that date a number of political changes took place.
Both Premier Bracks andDeputy PremierJohn Thwaites resigned on 27 July 2007.
Between the 2006 and 2010 elections, fourby-elections took place. In Bracks' seat ofWilliamstown and Thwaites' seat ofAlbert Park in 2007, former ministerAndre Haermeyer's seat ofKororoit in 2008, and former ministerLynne Kosky's seat ofAltona in 2010. All four seats were retained by Labor. Labor MPCraig Langdon resigned from his seat ofIvanhoe in August 2010, however the by-election writ was discharged by the Parliamentary Speaker due to the proximity of the state election coupled with the cost of holding a by-election.[4]
The Liberal and National Parties contested the election as aCoalition, which they had not done since the previous agreement lapsed in 2000.[5] The Liberal Party departed from tradition and gave their preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, thereby decreasing the chances of the Greens winning up to four inner city seats from Labor.[6]
The Coalition launched their campaign on 14 November 2010 at theMelbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre in theelectoral district of Melbourne, with the slogan: "Fix the problems. Build the future." Labor launched their campaign on 16 November 2010 in theelectoral district of Bendigo East, using the slogan: "For the times ahead." The Greens ran with the slogan "This time, I'm voting Green".
The Coalition campaigned heavily against the Brumby Government's newMyki ticketing system, which had been delivered at triple the projected cost and years behind schedule, as well as its construction of an expensivedesalination plant that many claimed was unnecessary.[7][8] Other issues included health, education, and law and order. Ted Baillieu promised to restore the budget to surplus, employ more nurses and police, make Victorian teachers the highest paid in the country, and abolishsuspended sentences which were seen as out of touch with community standards.
 | |||||||
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Seats | Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 1,203,654 | 38.03 |  3.59 | 35 | 12 | ||
| National | 213,492 | 6.75 | 1.58 | 10 | 1 | ||
| Coalition total | 1,417,146 | 44.78 | 5.17 | 45 | 13 | ||
| Labor | 1,147,348 | 36.25 |  6.81 | 43 | 12 | ||
| Greens | 354,697 | 11.21 | 1.17 | 0 |  | ||
| Independents | 82,395 | 2.60 | 0.31 | 0 | 1 | ||
| Family First | 72,354 | 2.29 | 2.00 | 0 | | ||
| Country Alliance | 42,938 | 1.36 | New | 0 | | ||
| Democratic Labour | 28,176 | 0.89 | New | 0 | | ||
| Sex Party | 17,252 | 0.55 | New | 0 | | ||
| Socialist Alliance | 1,787 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0 | | ||
| Christian Democrats | 636 | 0.02 | New | 0 | | ||
| Total valid votes | 3,164,729 | 95.04 | 0.40 | – | – | ||
| Invalid/blank votes | 165,134 | 4.96 | 0.40 | – | – | ||
| Total | 3,329,863 | 100 | – | 88 | | ||
| Registered voters / Turnout | 3,582,232 | 92.95 | 0.23 | – | – | ||
| Two-party-preferred vote | |||||||
| Coalition | 1,633,312 | 51.58 | +5.97 | 45 | 13 | ||
| Labor | 1,533,225 | 48.42 | −5.97 | 43 | 12 | ||
Labor suffered a swing of 5.97 percent, a larger swing than the1992 landslide that brought theJeff Kennett-led Coalition to power.[9] However, much of that swing was wasted on landslide victories in the Coalition's heartland. As a result, the Coalition only just managed the 13-seat swing it needed to make Baillieu premier, netting it a bare majority of two seats.
On 29 November, with the result beyond doubt, Brumby conceded defeat. He resigned as state Labor leader the next day. The new Liberal/National government was sworn in on 2 December 2010,[10] and former Health MinisterDaniel Andrews was elected Labor leader on 3 December.[11]
 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | +/– | |
| Labor | 1,137,461 | 35.36 | 6.09 | 16 | 3 | |
| Liberal (metropolitan) | 792,702 | 24.65 | 3.35 | 12 | 3 | |
| Liberal/National (joint ticket) | 595,330 | 18.51 | 0.83 | – | – | |
| Liberal (country) | 6 | | ||||
| National | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Greens | 386,172 | 12.01 | 1.43 | 3 | | |
| Family First | 91,982 | 2.86 | 0.99 | 0 | | |
| Democratic Labour | 75,080 | 2.33 | 0.36 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sex Party | 61,542 | 1.91 | New | 0 | New | |
| Country Alliance | 53,149 | 1.65 | 1.20 | 0 | | |
| Christian Democrats | 12,322 | 0.38 | 0.18 | 0 | | |
| Independents | 10,646 | 0.33 | 0 | | ||
| Total | 3,216,386 | 100.00 | – | 40 | – | |
| Valid votes | 3,216,386 | 96.62 | ||||
| Invalid/blank votes | 112,475 | 3.38 | 0.91 | |||
| Total votes | 3,328,861 | 100.00 | – | |||
| Registered voters/turnout | 3,582,232 | 92.93 | 0.20 | |||
Legislative Council seats
|
In the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, the Coalition won a majority of 21 seats, with 16 seats won by Labor and 3 won by the Greens.[12][13]
| Seat | Pre-2010 | Swing | Post-2010 | ||||||
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
| Bentleigh | Labor | Rob Hudson | 6.3 | -7.1 | 0.8 | Elizabeth Miller | Liberal | ||
| Burwood | Labor | Bob Stensholt | 3.7 | -9.6 | 5.9 | Graham Watt | Liberal | ||
| Carrum | Labor | Jenny Lindell | 6.7 | -8.7 | 2.0 | Donna Bauer | Liberal | ||
| Forest Hill | Labor | Kirstie Marshall | 0.8 | -3.9 | 3.2 | Neil Angus | Liberal | ||
| Frankston | Labor | Alistair Harkness | 3.2 | -5.3 | 2.1 | Geoff Shaw | Liberal | ||
| Gembrook | Labor | Tammy Lobato | 0.7 | -7.5 | 6.8 | Brad Battin | Liberal | ||
| Gippsland East¶ | Independent | Craig Ingram | 9.1 | -21.1 | 12.0 | Tim Bull | National | ||
| Mitcham | Labor | Tony Robinson | 2.0 | -4.7 | 2.8 | Dee Ryall | Liberal | ||
| Mordialloc | Labor | Janice Munt | 3.5 | -5.6 | 2.1 | Lorraine Wreford | Liberal | ||
| Mount Waverley | Labor | Maxine Morand | 0.3 | -7.8 | 7.4 | Michael Gidley | Liberal | ||
| Prahran | Labor | Tony Lupton | 3.6 | -7.8 | 4.3 | Clem Newton-Brown | Liberal | ||
| Seymour | Labor | Ben Hardman | 6.7 | -7.9 | 1.2 | Cindy McLeish | Liberal | ||
| South Barwon | Labor | Michael Crutchfield | 4.1 | -6.2 | 3.9 | Andrew Katos | Liberal | ||
¶In2006, the finalGippsland East 2PP count included Independent and Liberal, however in 2010 the final 2PP count included Independent and Nationals
Terms are fixed at four years. Elections occur in line with the fixed term provisions laid out in theElectoral Act 2002.[14]
Key dates for the election were:[15]
Polling conducted byNewspoll and published inThe Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas.Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declaredmargin of error at ±3 percent.
| Labor Brumby | Liberal Baillieu | |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 election | – | – |
| 23 – 25 Nov 2010 | 48% | 38% |
| 9 – 11 Nov 2010 | 50% | 36% |
| Sep – Oct 2010 | 49% | 31% |
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 52% | 27% |
| May – Jun 2010 | 47% | 31% |
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 49% | 29% |
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 51% | 29% |
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 54% | 26% |
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 52% | 27% |
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 52% | 27% |
| May – Jun 2009 | 54% | 21% |
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 54% | 22% |
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 49% | 27% |
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 45% | 27% |
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 48% | 26% |
| May – Jun 2008 | 51% | 28% |
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 49% | 23% |
| Jan – Feb 2008 | 48% | 25% |
| Nov – Dec 2007 | 51% | 22% |
| Sep – Oct 2007 | 51% | 25% |
| 2006 election | – | – |
| 22 – 23 Nov 2006 | 53%1 | 30% |
| Polling conducted byNewspoll and published inThe Australian. 1Steve Bracks. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. | ||
| Primary vote | 2PP vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | OTH | ALP | L/NP | ||||
| 2010 election | 36.3% | 38.0% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 48.4% | 51.6% | |||
| 23 – 25 Nov 2010 | 33% | 40% | 5% | 15% | 7% | 48.9% | 51.1% | |||
| 9 – 11 Nov 2010 | 37% | 39% | 5% | 14% | 5% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2010 | 35% | 36% | 4% | 19% | 6% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2010 | 38% | 32% | 4% | 17% | 9% | 55% | 45% | |||
| May – Jun 2010 | 34% | 36% | 4% | 18% | 8% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2010 | 37% | 38% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2010 | 39% | 36% | 3% | 14% | 8% | 54% | 46% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2009 | 41% | 32% | 3% | 14% | 10% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2009 | 43% | 32% | 3% | 15% | 7% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2009 | 43% | 35% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| May – Jun 2009 | 42% | 34% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2009 | 46% | 31% | 2% | 15% | 6% | 60% | 40% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2008 | 45% | 34% | 3% | 13% | 5% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2008 | 37% | 37% | 4% | 15% | 7% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Jul – Aug 2008 | 41% | 34% | 4% | 12% | 9% | 54% | 46% | |||
| May – Jun 2008 | 41% | 35% | 3% | 14% | 7% | 55% | 45% | |||
| Mar – Apr 2008 | 44% | 33% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 58% | 42% | |||
| Jan – Feb 2008 | 43% | 34% | 3% | 12% | 8% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Nov – Dec 2007 | 51% | 31% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 60% | 40% | |||
| Sep – Oct 2007 | 49% | 36% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 2006 election | 43.1% | 34.4% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 54.4% | 45.6% | |||
| 22 – 23 Nov 2006 | 45% | 32% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Polling conducted byNewspoll and published inThe Australian. | ||||||||||
Sky News exit polls in marginal seats recorded a Coalition 54-46 Labor result.[16]
| Dailies | Sundays | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newspaper | Endorsement | Newspaper | Endorsement | |||
| The Age | Labor[17] | The Sunday Age | Labor[18] | |||
| The Australian | Labor[19] | The Weekend Australian | ||||
| The Australian Financial Review | Labor[20] | |||||
| Herald Sun | Labor[21] | Sunday Herald Sun | Labor[22] | |||
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