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The2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2010, alongsideother elections to theUnited States Senate in other states as well as elections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate and local elections. Primaries for each respective party were held on May 18, 2010.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. SenatorJim Bunning decided to retire instead of seeking a third term. Republican nomineeRand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of CongressmanRon Paul, won the open seat againstKentucky Attorney GeneralJack Conway.[2]
In early 2009, incumbentRepublican U.S. SenatorJim Bunning, who won reelection by a surprisingly narrow margin in2004, said he would need to raise $10 million for his re-election campaign.[3] However,NRSC chairmanJohn Cornyn pressured Bunning to retire due to concerns that he could lose a reelection bid.[4] In July 2009, Bunning announced he would not run for re-election.[5]
In February 2009, Senator Bunning stated that another justice could soon be appointed to theUnited States Supreme Court becauseAssociate JusticeRuth Bader Ginsburg, who had been diagnosed withpancreatic cancer, would be dead within nine months,[6] creating a significant amount of controversy, which resulted in an apology from Bunning.[7] Ginsburg would not die until2020—outliving Bunning, who would die in 2017.
In late May 2009, Bunning called fellow Kentucky Senator and Republican Minority LeaderMitch McConnell a "control freak" and suggested that he did not need McConnell's endorsement.[8] He also challengedLexington Herald-Leader editor John Stamper to anarm wrestling match after Stamper questioned whether Bunning was "fit to serve."[8]
Additionally, Bunning created further controversy in February 2010 when he objected to a proposal ofunanimous consent for an extension ofunemployment insurance,COBRA, and other federal programs, citing that this extension was notpay-as-you-go. He proposed an amendment which sought to find the funds to pay for the bill from theStimulus Bill of 2009, and declared that he supported the unemployed, but that a bill such as this only added to the growing deficit and that it should be paid for immediately.[9] SenatorBob Corker joined Bunning, while other senators worked to cease his objections. When SenatorJeff Merkley urged him to drop his objections to vote on a 30-day extension of benefits, Bunning responded "tough shit."[10][11] Bunning finally agreed to end his objection to the bill in exchange for a vote on his amendment to pay for the package. It failed 53–43 on a procedural vote.[12] The extension of unemployment benefits then passed by a vote of 78–19.[13]
On August 20, 2009, a grassroots-plannedmoneybomb raised $433,509 for Rand Paul's campaign in a 24-hour period.[14] According to Paul,[15] this set a new record in Kentucky's political fundraising history (for a 24-hour period).Republican Liberty Caucus endorsed Paul in November 2009.[16] On December 22, 2009, Rand Paul picked up the endorsement ofConcerned Women for America.[17] Paul embraced theTea Party movement, and promoted "small government principles" one day after he officially entered the race for Kentucky's open seat.[18] Paul ran a strong anti-Washington message. One commercial tied Grayson as part of the problem, noting that Grayson raised money withAIG executives in Washington. In another advertisement, Paul had also attacked Grayson as a career politician and a liar.[19]
Grayson created a new website (randpaulstrangeideas.com) that attacked Paul for his "strange ideas," such as his opposition of thePATRIOT Act, and what Grayson alleged to be his support of closing downGuantanamo Bay and saying thatIran was not a threat.[20] He also attacked Paul for being aDuke University fan.[21] He sent out another TV ad and web video that stirred controversy by making the case that Paul believes that foreign policy decisions made prior to September 11, 2001, are partially to blame for the attacks.[22] Paul immediately responded by launching a statewide television ad in which he expresses his "outrage at terrorists who killed 3,000 innocents" before accusing Grayson of a "lie" and a "shameful" tactic.[23] Grayson accused theFox News Channel of favoring Paul over him.[24]
On May 18, 2010, Paul won the Republican nomination.[2] After conceding the election to Paul, Grayson said, "It's time to put all differences aside, unite behind Dr. Paul, he needs our help and I for one stand ready to serve".[25]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Trey Grayson | Rand Paul | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA[52] | August 15–17, 2009 | 516 | ± 4.4% | 37% | 26% | 13% | 17% |
| Research 2000[53][54] | August 31 – September 2, 2009 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 25% | 18% | 17% |
| Survey USA[55] | October 30 – November 2, 2009 | 448 | ± 4.7% | 32% | 35% | 10% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[56] | December 18–21, 2009 | 478 | ± 4.5% | 25% | 44% | — | 32% |
| Magellan Strategies[57] | February 18, 2010 | 560 | ± 4.1% | 23% | 44% | — | 33% |
| Survey USA[58] | March 1–3, 2010 | 454 | ± 4.7% | 27% | 42% | 11% | 19% |
| Research 2000[59][60] | March 15–17, 2010 | 600 | ± 5.0% | 28% | 40% | 14% | 18% |
| Survey USA[61] | April 9–11, 2010 | 446 | ± 4.7% | 30% | 45% | 5% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[62] | May 1–2, 2010 | 363 | ± 5.1% | 28% | 46% | 4% | 21% |
| Research 2000[63] | May 2–4, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 32% | 44% | 7% | 17% |
| Magellan Strategies[64][65] | May 4, 2010 | 611 | ± 3.9% | 28% | 43% | 8% | 21% |
| Survey USA[66] | May 9–11, 2010 | 440 | ± 4.8% | 33% | 49% | 7% | 11% |
| Research 2000[67][68] | May 10–12, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 35% | 45% | 7% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[69] | May 15–16, 2010 | 1,065 | ± 3.0% | 34% | 52% | 7% | 7% |
| Magellan Strategies[70][71] | May 16, 2010 | 809 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 55% | 8% | 7% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rand Paul | 206,986 | 58.8% | |
| Republican | Trey Grayson | 124,864 | 35.4% | |
| Republican | Bill Johnson* | 7,861 | 2.2% | |
| Republican | John Stephenson | 6,885 | 2.0% | |
| Republican | Gurley L. Martin | 2,850 | 0.8% | |
| Republican | Jon J. Scribner | 2,829 | 0.8% | |
| Total votes | 352,275 | 100.0% | ||
*Though Bill Johnson dropped out of the race prior to the primary, he still appeared on the ballot.
Mongiardo announced that he had received the endorsement ofGovernorSteve Beshear[76] and raised $420,000.[77]
Due to Conway's large margin of victory in his statewide campaign for attorney general, his fundraising ability, and the age difference between Conway and Bunning, Conway was described as a viable candidate.[78]
Both candidates were against the Senate version of the Affordable Care Act. When Mongiardo said that "it was time to start over," he was criticized by Conway and labeled "Dr. No."[79] Both candidates supported the final version.[80][81] Attorney General Conway refused to join a lawsuit claiming that health care reform is unconstitutional.[82]
On May 18, 2010, Conway won the Democratic nomination.[83]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jack Conway | Daniel Mongiardo | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garin-Hart-Yang[90] | May 12–13, 2009 | 336 | ± 5.3% | 28% | 43% | — | 29% |
| Survey USA[91] | August 15–17, 2009 | 647 | ± 3.9% | 31% | 39% | 9% | 14% |
| Research 2000[92][93] | August 31 – September 2, 2009 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 30% | 37% | 15% | 18% |
| Survey USA[94] | October 30 – November 2, 2009 | 602 | ± 4.1% | 28% | 39% | 10% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[95] | December 22, 2009 | 557 | ± 4.2% | 37% | 33% | — | 30% |
| Survey USA[96] | March 1–3, 2010 | 590 | ± 4.1% | 27% | 45% | 9% | 19% |
| Research 2000[97][98] | March 15–17, 2010 | 600 | ± 5.0% | 31% | 47% | 8% | 14% |
| Survey USA[99] | April 9–11, 2010 | 659 | ± 4.7% | 32% | 35% | 11% | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[100] | May 1–2, 2010 | 459 | ± 4.6% | 27% | 36% | 10% | 27% |
| Research 2000[101] | May 2–4, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 32% | 39% | 12% | 17% |
| Survey USA[102] | May 9–11, 2010 | 662 | ± 3.9% | 37% | 38% | 13% | 12% |
| Research 2000[103] | May 10–12, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 39% | 10% | 15% |
The primary race was extremely close with Conway narrowly prevailing by just over 4,000 votes. The race remained in doubt for much of the night. Finally with 99% of the vote counted theAssociated Press declared Conway the winner. Mongiardo called Conway to concede at 10:08 P.M. EST. Mongiardo congratulated Conway and pledged him his full support for the general election. In terms of the breakdown of the results, Conway ran up margins inJefferson County home ofLouisville, andFayette County home ofLexington. In terms of more rural counties Mongiardo and Conway split the vote. Conway performed well in centralKentucky, while Mongiardo performed well in coal country in east Kentucky and farm country in western Kentucky. In the end Conway's performance in the states most populated county,Jefferson County proved to be just enough to carry him to victory. The primary race was also notable because both Conway and Mongiardo received more votes than RepublicanRand Paul.[104]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jack Conway | 229,433 | 44.0% | |
| Democratic | Daniel Mongiardo | 225,260 | 43.2% | |
| Democratic | Darlene Fitzgerald Price | 28,531 | 5.5% | |
| Democratic | James Buckmaster | 20,561 | 3.9% | |
| Democratic | Maurice Sweeney | 17,874 | 3.4% | |
| Total votes | 521,659 | 100.0% | ||
Kentucky's ballot access requirements allow Republicans and Democrats to run for office with two signatures, but require minor parties and independents to collect at least 5,000 signatures.[105] The filing deadline for minor party and independent candidates was on August 10, and no candidate filed.[105]
Some speculate that the reason why no minor party or independent candidate filed is because Paul's candidacy helped discourage it. TheLibertarian Party of Kentucky held its nominating convention for 2010 elections and failed to nominate a candidate for the U.S. Senate, as no one stepped forward to seek nomination to that office. Despite comments from some observers that Paul espouseslibertarianbeliefs, theKentucky Libertarian Party issued an official press release stating "Rand Paul is not a libertarian" and detailing the differences between Paul's beliefs and libertarian principles.[106] Similarly, theConstitution Party of Kentucky avoided the Senate race ostensibly because of Rand Paul's presence in that race and perhaps because of his more minarchist stance than Trey Grayson, especially if the latter had been the nominee.
Billy Ray Wilson, an independent of London, filed as a write-in candidate.[107][108][109]
Conway began the race trailing Paul, but as he attacked his opponent's positions on social-welfare and criminal-justice policies, the polls began to tighten. Conway agreed to run an advertisement that linked Paul's policy stances to a college prank in which Paul reportedly demanded that a female classmate worship abong named "Aqua Buddha." Independent political analysts in Kentucky quickly warned that Conway would regret his decision. The ad's focus on religion led critics, including not just Republicans but also some liberals such as Hardball'sChris Matthews, to charge that Conway was improperly questioning Paul's faith, to which Conway countered that the ad was intended to question Paul's "judgment." Nonetheless, Conway swiftly dropped again in the polls, a decline from which he never recovered. Conway ceased his defense of the commercial after the election, admitting that running it had been a mistake; he claimed that he had done so only reluctantly at the urging of national advisers despite finding it "harsh as mule's breath."[110]
Conway saw one last opportunity before his final debate with Paul. One of Rand Paul's supporters stomped on aMoveOn activist after she approached Paul's vehicle, and a video of the event was later used in a Conway TV commercial.[111][112] Paul and Conway condemned the attack and the supporter was banned from campaign events.[111][113]
The campaign attracted $8.5 million in contributions from outside groups, of which $6 million was spent to help Rand Paul and $2.5 million to help Conway. This money influx was in addition to the money spent by the candidates themselves: $6 million by Paul and $4.7 million by Conway.[114][115]
Paul was endorsed byThe Kentucky Enquirer,[116]The Richmond Register,[117] and theBowling Green Daily News;[118] as well as by theNational Federation of Independent Business,[119]Council for Citizens Against Government Waste,[120]National Right to Life,[121]US Chamber of Commerce,[122] National Vietnam and Gulf War Veterans Coalition,[123]Mike Huckabee,[124] andTony Perkins/FRC Action PAC.[125][126]
Conway was endorsed by theCourier-Journal[127] and theLexington Herald Leader.[128]
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There were 5 televised debates between the two candidates. The first debate on October 3, 2010, which was moderated byChris Wallace, seemed to focus onPresident Obama's decisions during his 2 years as president. Paul stated, "I think his agenda is wrong for America. I will stand up against President Obama's agenda." Conway responded, "I am a proud Democrat. I'm certainly not going to be on the left of Barack Obama." At the time of the debate, the election's polls indicated the race was adead heat.[129]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Rand Paul | Jack Conway | |||||
| 1 | May 18, 2010 | ???? | ???? | [130] | P | P |
| 2 | October 11, 2010 | ???? | ???? | [131] | P | P |
| 3 | October 17, 2010 | ???? | ???? | [132] | P | P |
| 4 | October 25, 2010 | ???? | ???? | [133] | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[134] | Lean R | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[135] | Lean R | October 29, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[136] | Lean R | October 19, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[137] | Lean R | October 14, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[138] | Lean R | October 20, 2010 |
| Rasmussen Reports[139] | Safe R | October 29, 2010 |
| The New York Times[140] | Lean R | October 20, 2010 |
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rand Paul (R) | $6,727,033 | $6,068,547 | $658,484 | $0 |
| Jack Conway (D) | $5,027,318 | $4,370,349 | $684,177 | $460,794 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[141] | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rand Paul (R) | Jack Conway (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[142] | August 15–17, 2009 | 1,944 | ± 2.3% | 38% | 43% | — | 19% |
| Research 2000[143][144] | August 31 – September 2, 2009 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | — | 22% |
| Rasmussen Reports[145] | September 30, 2009 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 42% | 4% | 15% |
| SurveyUSA[146] | October 30 – November 2, 2009 | 1,770 | ± 2.4% | 39% | 44% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[147] | December 18–21, 2009 | 1,199 | ± 2.8% | 42% | 36% | — | 22% |
| Rasmussen Reports[148] | January 6, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 38% | 4% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[149] | February 2, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 39% | 3% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[150] | March 2, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 34% | 4% | 13% |
| Research 2000[151][152] | March 15–17, 2010 | 600 | ± 5.0% | 45% | 39% | — | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[153] | March 31, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 50% | 36% | 3% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports[154] | April 28, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 38% | 4% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling[155] | May 1–2, 2010 | 946 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 40% | — | 19% |
| Research 2000[156][157] | May 10–12, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | — | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[158] | May 19, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 59% | 34% | 4% | 3% |
| Research 2000[159] | May 24–26, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | — | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[160] | May 25–27, 2010 | 569 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 45% | — | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[161] | June 1, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 41% | 4% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports[162] | June 28, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 42% | 3% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[163] | June 28–30, 2010 | 625 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 43% | — | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports[164] | July 20, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | 4% | 6% |
| SurveyUSA[165] | July 27–29, 2010 | 568 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 43% | — | 5% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[166] | August 13–15, 2010 | 435 | ± 4.7% | 45% | 40% | — | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports[167] | August 17, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 40% | 4% | 7% |
| SurveyUSA[168] | August 30 – September 1, 2010 | 561 | ± 4.2% | 55% | 40% | — | 5% |
| Opinion Research[169] | September 2–7, 2010 | 869 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 46% | 5% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[170] | September 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 39% | 2% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[171] | September 11–12, 2010 | 959 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[172] | September 21–23, 2010 | 611 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | — | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[173] | September 29, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 38% | 5% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports[174] | October 18, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 42% | 4% | 7% |
| Mason-Dixon[175] | October 18–19, 2010 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[176] | October 23, 2010 | 1,000 | ± 3.0% | 50% | 43% | 2% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[177] | October 21–24, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.3% | 53% | 40% | — | 7% |
| Opinion Research[178] | October 20–26, 2010 | 785 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | — | — |
| SurveyUSA[179] | October 24–27, 2010 | 900 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 43% | — | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports[180] | October 27, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 41% | 2% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling[181] | October 28–30, 2010 | 1,021 | ± 3.1% | 55% | 40% | — | 5% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rand Paul | 755,706 | 55.73% | +5.07% | |
| Democratic | Jack Conway | 600,052 | 44.25% | −5.09% | |
| Independent | Billy Ray Wilson (write-in) | 338 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 1,356,096 | 100.0% | |||
| Republicanhold | |||||
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{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)Voss, D. Stephen & Gross, Donald (2011). "Chapter 8: Poster Child for the Tea Party: Rand Paul of Kentucky". In Miller, William J. & Walling, Jeremy D. (eds.).Tea Party Effects on 2010 Senate Elections. Lexington Books. pp. 141–172.ISBN 978-0739167014.
Debates
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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