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2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho

← 2008
November 2, 2010 (2010-11-02)
2012 →

All 2 Idaho seats to theUnited States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Last election11
Seats won20
Seat changeIncrease 1Decrease 1
Popular vote263,699150,884
Percentage58.97%33.74%
SwingDecrease 0.26%Decrease 7.03%

District results
County results

Republican

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Democratic

  50–60%

Elections in Idaho
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The2010 congressional elections in Idaho were held on November 2, 2010, and determined who would represent thestate ofIdaho in theUnited States House of Representatives. Idaho has two seats in the House, apportioned according to the2000 United States census. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; the winners served in the112th Congress from January 3, 2011, until January 3, 2013.

Overview

[edit]
United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho, 2010[1]
PartyVotesPercentageSeats+/–
Republican263,69958.97%2+1
Democratic150,88433.74%0-1
Independents27,8656.23%0
Libertarian4,6961.05%0-
Totals447,144100.00%2

By district

[edit]

Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho by district:[2]

DistrictRepublicanDemocraticOthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1126,23151.02%102,13541.28%19,0617.70%247,427100.0%Republican gain
District 2137,46868.83%48,74924.41%13,5006.76%199,717100.0%Republican hold
Total263,69958.97%150,88433.74%32,5617.28%447,144100.0%

District 1

[edit]
See also:Idaho's 1st congressional district
2010 Idaho's 1st congressional district election

← 2008
November 2, 2010
2012 →
 
NomineeRaúl LabradorWalt Minnick
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote126,231102,135
Percentage51.0%41.3%

U.S. Representative before election

Walt Minnick
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Raúl Labrador
Republican

In this heavily conservative[3] district that consists of western Idaho and theIdaho Panhandle, incumbent Democratic CongressmanWalt Minnick was seen as vulnerable,[4] especially considering the fact that he won in 2008 against an embattled, weakened incumbent. Minnick, however, worked to build a profile as a moderate-to-conservative Democrat, voting against the2009 Stimulus,[5] thehealth care reform bill,[6] and theAmerican Clean Energy and Security Act,[7] Furthermore, Congressman Minnick was the only Democrat to receive a perfect score from theClub for Growth, typically an organization that supports conservative Republican candidates for office.[8]

Republican primary

[edit]

Several Republican candidates, includingIraq War veteran Vaughn Ward,State RepresentativesRaúl Labrador and Ken Roberts, and physician Allan Salzberg, ran for the Republican nomination to challenge Minnick. Roberts eventually dropped out, as did Salzberg; both former candidates endorsed Labrador.[9] Vaughn Ward's campaign received coverage from as far away as Great Britain[10] asSarah Palin came to Idaho to endorse Ward, who was one of theNational Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns.[11] Critics seized on various troubles with the campaign, including multiple instances ofplagiarism,[12] Ward's failure to vote in the 2008 presidential elections[13] and his referral toPuerto Rico as a "country."[14] Ultimately, despite the fact that many prominent conservatives had lined up behind Ward, Labrador triumphed in a contentious primary election.

Republican primary results[15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRaúl Labrador38,71147.6
RepublicanVaughn Ward31,58238.9
RepublicanMichael Chadwick5,3566.6
RepublicanHarley Brown3,1683.9
RepublicanAllan Salzberg2,4713.0
Total votes81,288100

General election

[edit]

A contentious general election ensued, with both Minnick and Labrador launching aggressive campaign ads against each other. When Labrador accused the Congressman of supporting a middle class tax increase in a television ad, controversy quickly ensued;Idaho Public Television threatened to pull the ad for its inaccuracy and critics accused Labrador of taking Minnick's remarks out of context.[16] When Minnick aired an ad, Labrador attacked it for including pictures that made him "look like an illegal immigrant."[17] Minnick strongly stressed his independent credentials; his claims were seemingly validated when theTea Party Express, the largest group affiliated with the broader movement, endorsed his campaign for re-election.[18] Going into election night, polling indicated Minnick with a lead over Labrador, but after the votes were tallied, Labrador defeated Minnick by a solid margin in a surprising upset.

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredWalt
Minnick (D)
Raúl
Labrador (R)
Undecided
Greg Smith & Associates[19]October 28–30, 201048%38%-
Mason-Dixon[20]October 20–22, 201044%41%-
Moore Information[21]October 5–6, 201037%31%-
Mason-Dixon[22]September 13–15, 201046%36%-
Qualtrics[23]September 1–9, 201060%30%-
GS Strategy Group[24]July 29, 201052%29%-
Moore Information[25]July 12–13, 201037%27%26%
Greg Smith & Associates[26]June 7–8, 201029%40%-

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[27]TossupNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg[28]Tilt DNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29]Lean R(flip)November 1, 2010
RCP[30]TossupNovember 1, 2010
CQ Politics[31]Lean DOctober 28, 2010
New York Times[32]TossupNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight[32]Lean DNovember 1, 2010

Results

[edit]
Idaho's 1st congressional district election, 2010[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRaúl Labrador126,23151.02
DemocraticWalt Minnick (incumbent)102,13541.28
IndependentDave Olson14,3655.81
LibertarianMike Washburn4,6961.90
Total votes247,427100.00
Republicangain fromDemocratic

District 2

[edit]
See also:Idaho's 2nd congressional district

Campaign

[edit]

This conservative[3] district, based ineastern Idaho and theMagic Valley region ofIdaho, has been represented by incumbent Republican CongressmanMike Simpson since he was first elected in1998. Simpson did not face a serious challenge in his bid for a seventh term from Democratic candidate Mike Crawford or independent candidate Brian Schad and was re-elected by a large margin on election day.

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[27]Safe RNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg[28]Safe RNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29]Safe RNovember 1, 2010
RCP[30]Safe RNovember 1, 2010
CQ Politics[31]Safe ROctober 28, 2010
New York Times[32]Safe RNovember 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight[32]Safe RNovember 1, 2010

Results

[edit]
Idaho's 2nd congressional district election, 2010[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMike Simpson (incumbent)137,46868.83
DemocraticMike Crawford48,74924.41
IndependentBrian Schad13,5006.76
Total votes199,717100.00
Republicanhold

References

[edit]
  1. ^abcClerk of the U.S. House of Representatives."Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"(PDF). p. 15.
  2. ^Haas, Karen L. (June 3, 2011)."Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010".Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. RetrievedNovember 12, 2019.
  3. ^ab"Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 111th Congress." The Cook Political Report. N.p., n.d. Web. 19 June 2011. <[1]>.
  4. ^"Minnick Makes 'Vulnerable' Top 10 | the Spokesman-Review".
  5. ^http://washingtonexaminer.com/editorials/2009/02/blue-dog-nips-obama-better-stimulus-idea[permanent dead link]
  6. ^FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 887 (Affordable Health Care for America Act)House.gov
  7. ^FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 477 (American Clean Energy and Security Act)House.gov
  8. ^Cadei, Emily.Minnick Earns Perfect Score on 'RePork Card'CQ Politics. 13 August 2009.
  9. ^Hurst, Dustin."Labrador receives another endorsement from a former congressional foe".Idaho Reporter.
  10. ^Adams, Richard (May 25, 2010)."Vaughn Ward: the dumb and paste Republican candidate".The Guardian. London.
  11. ^Berman, Russell (May 18, 2010)."Republican favorite losing ground in Idaho primary".The Hill.
  12. ^Neuman, Johanna (May 25, 2010)."Idaho Republican endorsed by Sarah Palin plagiarizes Obama's 'a brighter day will come' speech. Ouch".Los Angeles Times.Los Angeles. RetrievedMay 27, 2010.
  13. ^Popkey, Dan; Bonner, Jessie (May 14, 2010)."Vaughn Ward didn't vote in 2008".Idaho Statesman.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  14. ^Deshais, Nicholas (May 25, 2010)."Ward goes national".The Pacific Northwest Inlander.
  15. ^"May 25, 2010 Primary Election Results".Secretary of State of Idaho. RetrievedNovember 24, 2013.
  16. ^http://www.idahostatesman.com/2010/10/22/1388442/labrador-ad-takes-remark-by-minnick.html[dead link]
  17. ^"HuffPost - Breaking News, U.S. And World News". Archived fromthe original on October 17, 2010. RetrievedJune 21, 2011.
  18. ^Stein, Sam (April 15, 2010)."Walt Minnick Tea Party Endorsement: Minnick Campaign Accepts".Huffington Post.
  19. ^Greg Smith & Associates
  20. ^Mason-Dixon
  21. ^Moore Information
  22. ^Mason-Dixon
  23. ^QualtricsArchived 2010-11-14 at theWayback Machine
  24. ^GS Strategy Group
  25. ^Moore Information
  26. ^Greg Smith & Associates
  27. ^ab"The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races".The Cook Political Report. November 1, 2010. Archived fromthe original on November 4, 2010. RetrievedNovember 1, 2010.
  28. ^abRothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010)."House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived fromthe original on November 1, 2010. RetrievedNovember 1, 2010.
  29. ^abCrystal Ball, as of November 1, 2010[update]
  30. ^abRealClearPolitics, as of November 1, 2010[update]
  31. ^ab"2010 House Ratings Chart".CQ Politics. Archived fromthe original on October 28, 2010. RetrievedNovember 1, 2010.
  32. ^abcd"House Race Ratings".nytimes.com.The New York Times. Archived fromthe original on November 7, 2010. RetrievedOctober 9, 2023.

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