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2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election

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2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election
← 2006November 2, 20102014 →
 
NomineeMark DaytonTom EmmerTom Horner
PartyDemocratic (DFL)RepublicanIndependence
Running mateYvonne Prettner SolonAnnette MeeksJim Mulder
Popular vote919,232910,462251,487
Percentage43.63%43.21%11.94%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Dayton:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Emmer:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Horner:     30–40%     40–50%     60–70%     >90%
Tie:     30–40%     40–50%     50%     No votes
Governor before election

Tim Pawlenty
Republican

Elected Governor

Mark Dayton
Democratic (DFL)

Elections in Minnesota
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The2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the 40thGovernor of the U.S. state of Minnesota for a four-year term to begin in January 2011. The general election was contested by the major party candidates State RepresentativeTom Emmer (R–Delano), former U.S. SenatorMark Dayton (DFL), andIndependence Party candidate Tom Horner. After a very close race, Dayton was elected governor.[1] Emmer would be elected to theUnited States House of Representatives four years later.[2]

This was the first time the Democrats won the governorship sinceRudy Perpich won re-election in1986. With a margin of 0.4% (or 8,770 votes), this election was the closest race of the2010 gubernatorial election cycle.

Republican primary

[edit]

Afterincumbent GovernorTim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term,[3] the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former RepresentativeMarty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. RepresentativeTom Emmer took second place with 23%,Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each.[4][5]

Seifert had another victory in the February 2 precinct caucuses, winning a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees with 50% of the vote, followed by Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits.[6] Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the initial straw poll indicated. Both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor.[7]

On April 30, Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the party's state convention inMinneapolis. After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer then choseMetropolitan Council memberAnnette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.[8]

Emmer won the August 10 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot.[9]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanTom Emmer107,55882.5
RepublicanBob Carney Jr.9,8567.6
RepublicanLeslie Davis8,5986.6
RepublicanOle Savior4,3963.4
Total votes130,408100

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

[edit]

The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. SenatorMark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis MayorR. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House SpeakerMargaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. The other each candidates received single-digit support.[33][34]

Former State SenatorSteve Kelley dropped out of the race after a disappointing result in the straw poll. State SenatorTom Bakk also dropped out on March 20 after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that he believed his chances of winning were slim.

On April 24, the DFL State Convention was held inDuluth. State SenatorJohn Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support on the first ballot, and State RepresentativeTom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, endorsing Kelliher. State RepresentativePaul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results of the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well, endorsing Kelliher.[35] Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County AttorneySusan Gaertner, who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Dayton and former State House Minority LeaderMatt Entenza in the August primary.

Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou isMinnetonkaCity Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican GovernorArne Carlson's administration.[36] On May 24, Dayton announcedYvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate. Solon is a psychologist and three-term state senator.[37] On May 27, Entenza announcedRobyne Robinson as his running mate. Robinson is a small-business owner and former TV anchor.[38]

Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee.[39] He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21.[40]

Candidates

[edit]
Candidate Mark Dayton speaking at a debate, 2009

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDates administeredMark DaytonMatt EntenzaMargaret Anderson KelliherUndecidedSampling error
Survey USA[53]August 2–4, 201043%22%27%8%4.5%
Minnesota Poll[54]July 26–29, 201040%17%30%13%7.3%
Survey USA[55]June 14–16, 201039%22%26%11%4.5%
Humphrey Institute /MPR[56]May 13–16, 201038%6%28%28%8.75%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Dayton
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
Kelliher
  •   30–40%
  •   40-50%
Entenza
  •   30-40%
  •   50-60%

At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results[32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Mark Dayton182,73841.3
Democratic (DFL)Margaret Anderson Kelliher175,76739.8
Democratic (DFL)Matt Entenza80,50918.2
Democratic (DFL)Peter Idusogie3,1230.7
Total votes442,137100

Independence primary

[edit]

On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of theIndependence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.[57]

Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.[9]

Candidates

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Independence Party primary results[66]
PartyCandidateVotes%
IndependenceTom Horner11,38064.2
IndependenceRob Hahn2,53814.3
IndependenceJohn T. Uldrich1,76610.0
IndependencePhile Ratté1,2157.0
IndependenceRahn V. Workcuff8154.5
Total votes17,714100

General election

[edit]

Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided.[67][68][69] As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead.[70] The nonpartisanCook Political Report,CQ Politics and pollsterRasmussen Reports rated the gubernatorial election a tossup,[71][72][73][74][75] whileNew York Times political statisticianNate Silver gave Dayton an 86% chance of winning and Emmer 14%.[76]

Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8,770 votes (0.42%).[77] The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.[78]

Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles.[79]

Candidates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[80]TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg[81]Tilt D(flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[82]TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83]Lean D(flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[84]TossupOctober 28, 2010

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

010203040503/10/20107/29/20109/26/201010/27/2010Dayton/Prettner SolonEmmer/MeeksOther/UndecidedHorner/MulderOpinion polling for the 2010 Minnesota guber...
Viewsource data.
Poll sourceDates administeredMargion of ErrorTom
Emmer (R)		Mark
Dayton (DFL)		Tom
Horner (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[85]Oct. 27 – 29, 2010±2.2%40%43%15%3%
SurveyUSA[86]Oct. 24 – 27, 2010±4%38%39%13%9%
Minnesota Public Radio[87]Oct. 21 – 25, 2010±3.6%29%41%11%20%
St. Cloud State University[88]Oct. 10 – 21, 2010±5.0%30%40%19%10%
Minnesota Poll[89]Oct. 18 – 21, 2010±3.9%34%41%13%12%
Rasmussen Reports[90]Oct. 20, 2010±4.0%41%44%10%5%
Survey USA[91]Oct. 11 – 13, 2010±3.7%37%42%14%7%
Rasmussen Reports[90]Oct. 6, 2010±4%38%40%15%7%
Humphrey Institute/MPR[92]Sep. 22 – 26, 2010±3.6%27%38%16%19%
Minnesota Poll[93]Sep. 20–23, 2010±4.1%30%39%18%13%
Rasmussen Reports[90]Sep. 22, 2010±4%42%41%9%2%
Survey USA[94]Sep. 12 – 14, 2010±3.9%36%38%18%4%
Humphrey Institute/MPR[95]Aug. 31, 2010±5.3%34%34%13%19%
Rasmussen Reports[96]Aug. 12, 2010±4.0%36%45%10%10%
Survey USA[53]Aug. 2 – 4, 2010±2.7%32%46%9%13%
Minnesota Poll[54]Jul. 26 – 29, 2010±4.3%30%40%13%17%
Rasmussen Reports[97]Jul. 19, 2010±4.5%36%40%10%14%
Survey USA[55]Jun. 14 – 16, 2010±2.5%35%38%12%15%
Decision Resources, Ltd.[98]May 28 – Jun. 2, 2010±3.5%28%40%18%14%
Rasmussen Reports[90]May 24, 2010±4.5%37%35%12%16%
Humphrey Institute/MPR[99]May 13 – 16, 2010±5.8%31%35%9%25%
Survey USA[100]May 3 – 5, 2010±4.1%42%34%9%15%
Rasmussen Reports[101]Mar. 10, 2010±3%35%38%7%20%
Hypothetical polling

With Entenza

Poll sourceDates administeredTom Emmer (R)Matt Entenza (DFL)Tom Horner (I)UndecidedSampling error
Survey USA[53]August 2–4, 201033%38%12%17%2.7%
Minnesota Poll[54]July 26–29, 201031%36%15%17%4.3%
Rasmussen Reports[97]July 19, 201036%37%12%15%4.5%
Survey USA[55]June 14–16, 201037%33%12%18%2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd.[98]May 28 – June 2, 201027%34%19%20%3.5%
Rasmussen Reports[90]May 24, 201037%34%12%17%4.5%
Humphrey Institute /MPR[56]May 13–16, 201032%28%11%29%5.8%
Survey USA[100]May 3–5, 201042%31%10%16%4.1%
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201037%28%8%26%3%

With Kelliher

Poll sourceDates administeredTom Emmer (R)Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL)Tom Horner (I)UndecidedSampling error
Survey USA[53]August 2–4, 201033%39%12%17%2.7%
Minnesota Poll[54]July 26–29, 201029%38%13%18%4.3%
Rasmussen Reports[97]July 19, 201035%40%11%14%4.5%
Survey USA[55]June 14–16, 201035%33%12%21%2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd.[98]May 28 – June 2, 201028%38%17%17%3.5%
Rasmussen Reports[90]May 24, 201038%36%11%15%4.5%
Humphrey Institute /MPR[56]May 13–16, 201032%29%10%30%5.8%
Survey USA[100]May 3–5, 201041%33%9%17%4.1%
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201037%34%8%19%3%

With Pawlenty

SourceDateTim PawlentyMark Dayton
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]May 20, 200947%43%
SourceDateTim PawlentyR. T. Rybak
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]May 20, 200947%42%
SourceDateTim PawlentyChris Coleman
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]May 20, 200948%37%
SourceDateTim PawlentyMatt Entenza
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]May 20, 200951%37%
SourceDateTim PawlentySusan Gaertner
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]May 20, 200950%36%
SourceDateTim PawlentyTom Bakk
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]May 20, 200952%34%
SourceDateTim PawlentyJohn Marty
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]May 20, 200951%34%
SourceDateTim PawlentyMargaret Anderson Kelliher
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]May 20, 200951%34%
SourceDateTim PawlentyPaul Thissen
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]May 20, 200951%32%

With Emmer

SourceDateTom EmmerMark Dayton
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201035%38%
SourceDateTom EmmerMargaret Anderson Kelliher
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201037%34%
SourceDateTom EmmerR.T. Rybak
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201035%38%
SourceDateTom EmmerTom Bakk
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201036%29%
SourceDateTom EmmerTom Rukavina
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201038%29%
SourceDateTom EmmerMatt Entenza
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201037%28%

With Seifert

SourceDateMarty SeifertMark Dayton
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201039%38%
SourceDateMarty SeifertMargaret Anderson Kelliher
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201039%35%
SourceDateMarty SeifertR.T. Rybak
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201038%38%
SourceDateMarty SeifertTom Bakk
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201037%30%
SourceDateMarty SeifertTom Rukavina
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201039%30%
SourceDateMarty SeifertMatt Entenza
Rasmussen Reports[101]March 10, 201038%30%

With Coleman

SourceDateNorm ColemanR.T. Rybak
Public Policy Polling[103]June 7–8, 200937%43%
SourceDateNorm ColemanMark Dayton
Public Policy Polling[103]June 7–8, 200939%41%
SourceDateNorm ColemanMargaret Anderson Kelliher
Public Policy Polling[103]June 7–8, 200942%34%

Results

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
Trend by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
County results for the Independence Party:
Horner
  •      <9%
  •      9-10%
  •      10-11%
  •      11-12%
  •      12-13%
  •      13-14%
  •      14-15%
  •      15-16%
  •      16%<
2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota[77]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL)Mark Dayton919,23243.63%−2.07%
RepublicanTom Emmer910,46243.21%−3.49%
IndependenceTom Horner251,48711.94%+5.54%
GrassrootsChris Wright7,5160.36%n/a
GreenFarheen Hakeem6,1880.29%−0.21%
Ecology DemocracyKen Pentel6,1800.29%n/a
Resource PartyLinda Eno4,0920.19%n/a
Write-ins1,8640.09%
Total votes2,106,979100
Democratic (DFL)gain fromRepublican

Recount results

[edit]

The recount was carried out by theMinnesota Secretary of State,Mark Ritchie, as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court.[104] The vote totals were not changed, and Dayton was declared the governor-elect.

2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota[77]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL)Mark Dayton/Yvonne Prettner Solon919,23243.63%−2.07%
RepublicanTom Emmer/Annette Meeks910,46243.21%−3.49%
IndependenceTom Horner/Jim Mulder251,48711.94%+5.54%
GrassrootsChris Wright7,5160.36%n/a
GreenFarheen Hakeem6,1880.29%−0.21%
Ecology DemocracyKen Pentel6,1800.29%n/a
Resource PartyLinda Eno4,0920.19%n/a
Write-ins1,8640.09%
Total votes2,106,979100
Democratic (DFL)gain fromRepublican
Olmsted County, Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29, 2010

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

References

[edit]
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