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| Turnout | 48.7% 1.9[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsScott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Sink: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010.Republican-turned-independent incumbent GovernorCharlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for theSenate seat vacated byMel Martínez.[2] This resulted in an open race forGovernor of Florida in which RepublicanRick Scott narrowly defeatedDemocratAlex Sink.
Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from themidtermGOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country.[3] Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an independent).
The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement,[4] Scott benefited from support andendorsement byTea Party activists,[3][5] aninfluential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against theAffordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position.[6]This election was the first Florida gubernatorial election since1982 where the winner of the gubernatorial election was of the same party as the winner of the concurrentUnited States Senate election.
Before the 2010 Democratic primary, the Florida Democratic Party faced a period of uncertainty. The incumbent governor, Charlie Crist, was widely expected to seek re-election but surprised many in early 2009 by announcing a run for the U.S. Senate instead. This created a rare open seat for governor, sparking speculation among Florida Democrats about who would enter the race.[7]
Alex Sink, then serving as theChief Financial Officer of Florida, was the only Democrat holding statewide elected office at the time. As a formerBank of America executive, Sink built a reputation as a competent and moderate technocrat. Her husband,Bill McBride, was the Democrat nominee in the2002 Florida gubernatorial election, but lost to incumbent GovernorJeb Bush. Initially, there were doubts about whether she would run, as she remained noncommittal throughout the first half of 2009.[8] However, in May 2009, she officially announced her candidacy and instantly became the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
Sink benefited from a largely uncontested path to the nomination. Her only opponent wasBrian Moore, a long-shot candidate who previously ran for president in 2008 under theSocialist Party USA banner. Moore qualified for the ballot as a Democrat but did not raise significant funds or gain media traction.[9] On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.
Because of this advantage, Sink was able to conserve resources and begin preparing for the general election months in advance. She toured the state, built a coalition of moderate Democrats and independents, and began framing her likely Republican opponent (initially expected to be Attorney GeneralBill McCollum) as out of touch with mainstream voters. However, political newcomer Rick Scott's upset victory surprised her team.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alex Sink | 663,802 | 76.9% | |
| Democratic | Brian Moore | 199,896 | 23.1% | |
| Total votes | 863,698 | 100.0% | ||
In May 2009, incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate.[11] The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman andFlorida Attorney GeneralBill McCollum emerged as the early favorite and had strong backing from the state Republican establishment. In2000, McCollum was the Republican nominee for Senate, but lost. He ran for the nomination again in2004 but lost. His run for governor would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign. McCollum’s early entry allowed him to consolidate endorsements and donor support, and for most of 2009 and early 2010, he campaigned without a serious challenger. However, just before the deadline,Rick Scott, a multimillionaire businessman and former CEO of theColumbia/HCA hospital chain, jumped into the race.[12]
From the outset, Scott launched a media blitz and invested more than $23 million of his own money in just the primary. In total, Scott spent over $50 million in the primary alone. His messaging focused on job creation, cutting taxes, immigration enforcement, and repealingObamacare. He branded himself as a “conservative outsider,” tapping into risingTea Party sentiment and widespread voter frustration with government insiders. His “Let’s Get to Work” plan promised to create 700,000 jobs in seven years.[13]
McCollum was initially caught off-guard by Scott’s entry and struggled to keep up in fundraising and advertising. McCollum tried to reframe the race as a referendum on Scott’s past, especially his role in the Columbia/HCA Medicare fraud case. McCollum’s campaign and allied groups ran ads labeling Scott as untrustworthy. One McCollum ad called Scott “the king of Medicare fraud,” a claim Scott strongly rejected, stating he was never personally charged with wrongdoing.[14]
The race turned deeply negative on both sides, with mutual accusations of lying, criminal behavior, and ideological extremism. McCollum also received criticism for hiring a controversial anti-immigration consultant, which alienated some moderate Republicans and Latino voters. Scott took legal action to avoid Florida’s campaign finance “millionaire’s matching funds” provision, which would have granted McCollum more public funding.[15][12] Televised debates late in the campaign were bitter and personal, with Scott refusing to apologize for his business record and McCollum attacking Scott’s refusal to release full records from his tenure at Columbia/HCA.
Scott led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight.[16] Scott's victory exposed rifts within the Republican Party between establishment conservatives and the insurgent Tea Party movement. The primary left Scott with high unfavorable ratings and a reputation for aggressive, negative campaigning, but it also gave him name recognition, media dominance, and momentum heading into the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Scott | 595,474 | 46.4% | |
| Republican | Bill McCollum | 557,427 | 43.4% | |
| Republican | Mike McCalister | 130,056 | 10.1% | |
| Total votes | 1,282,957 | 100.0% | ||
The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million.[18] Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida.[19] Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race.[20] Sink made an issue of Scott's connections toColumbia/HCA, aMedicare billing fraud scandal.[3]
One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators.[21] Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[22] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[23] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[24] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Lean R(flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[26] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Alex Sink | Michael E. Arth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Dixon[27] | June 24–26, 2009 | 49% | 4% |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Bill McCollum | Rick Scott | Paula Dockery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[28] | August 21–22, 2010 | 39% | 35% | – |
| Public Policy Polling[29] | August 21–22, 2010 | 40% | 47% | – |
| Mason-Dixon[30] | August 17–19, 2010 | 45% | 36% | – |
| Quinnipiac[31] | August 11–16, 2010 | 44% | 35% | – |
| Sunshine State News[32] | August 12–15, 2010 | 42% | 44% | – |
| Mason Dixon[33] | August 9–11, 2010 | 34% | 30% | – |
| Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[34] | August 6–10, 2010 | 32% | 42% | – |
| Mason Dixon[35] | August 2–4, 2010 | 31% | 37% | – |
| The Florida Poll[36] | July 24–28, 2010 | 25% | 41% | – |
| Quinnipiac[37] | July 22–27, 2010 | 32% | 43% | – |
| Public Policy Polling[38] | July 16–18, 2010 | 29% | 43% | – |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce[39] | June 9–13, 2010 | 30% | 35% | – |
| Quinnipiac[40] | June 2–8, 2010 | 31% | 44% | – |
| Mason-Dixon[41] | May 3–5, 2010 | 38% | 24% | 7% |
| Research 2000[42] | November 16–18, 2009 | 45% | – | 9% |
| Strategic Vision[43] | May 29–31, 2009 | 44% | – | 28% |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Bud Chiles (I) | Rick Scott (R) | Alex Sink (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[41] | May 3–5, 2010 | — | 36% | 38% |
| Rasmussen Reports[44] | May 16, 2010 | — | 41% | 40% |
| Rasmussen Reports[45] | June 7, 2010 | — | 45% | 40% |
| Quinnipiac[46] | June 7, 2010 | 13% | 35% | 26% |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce[39] | June 9–13, 2010 | 15% | 31% | 26% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[47] | July 9–11, 2010 | 12% | 34% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling[48] | July 16–18, 2010 | 13% | 30% | 36% |
| Quinnipiac[49] | July 22–27, 2010 | 14% | 29% | 27% |
| The Florida Poll[36] | July 24–28, 2010 | 11% | 30% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports[50] | August 2, 2010 | 16% | 35% | 31% |
| Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[34] | August 6–10, 2010 | 14% | 30% | 29% |
| Mason-Dixon[51] | August 9–11, 2010 | 17% | 24% | 40% |
| Quinnipiac[52] | August 11–16, 2010 | 12% | 29% | 33% |
| Public Policy Polling[53] | August 21–22, 2010 | 8% | 34% | 41% |
| Rasmussen Reports[54] | August 25, 2010 | 4% | 45% | 42% |
| Rasmussen Reports[55] | September 1, 2010 | — | 45% | 44% |
| Sunshine State News[56] | September 1–7, 2010 | 42% | 44% | |
| CNN[57] | September 2–7, 2010 | 42% | 49% | |
| FOX News[58] | September 11, 2010 | 41% | 49% | |
| Reuters/Ipsos[59] | September 12, 2010 | 45% | 47% | |
| Mason-Dixon[60] | September 20–22, 2010 | 40% | 47% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[61] | September 22, 2010 | 50% | 44% | |
| Quinnipiac[62] | September 23–28, 2010 | 49% | 43% | |
| CNN[63] | September 24–28, 2010 | 47% | 45% | |
| Sunshine State News[64] | September 26 – October 3, 2010 | 44% | 42% | |
| TCPalm.com /Zogby[65] | September 27–29, 2010 | 39% | 41% | |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce[66] | September 27–30, 2010 | 46% | 42% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[67] | September 30, 2010 | 46% | 41% | |
| Mason-Dixon[68] | October 4–6, 2010 | 40% | 44% | |
| Miami-Dade College[69] | October 5, 2010 | 52% | 46% | |
| Quinnipiac[70] | October 6–8, 2010 | 45% | 44% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[67] | October 7, 2010 | 50% | 47% | |
| PPP[71] | October 9–10, 2010 | 41% | 46% | |
| Susquehanna[72] | October 12–13, 2010 | 45% | 48% | |
| Suffolk[73] | October 14–17, 2010 | 38% | 45% | |
| CNN Opinion Research[74] | October 15–19, 2010 | 49% | 46% | |
| Ipsos/St. Pete Times[75] | October 15–19, 2010 | 44% | 41% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[67] | October 18, 2010 | 50% | 44% | |
| Naples Daily News /Zogby[76] | October 18–21, 2010 | 39% | 43% | |
| Quinnipiac[77] | October 18–24, 2010 | 41% | 45% | |
| Susquehanna[78] | October 20, 2010 | 45% | 45% | |
| Susquehanna/Sunshine State News[79] | October 24–25, 2010 | 47% | 45% | |
| Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic[80] | October 23–27, 2010 | 44% | 39% | |
| Quinnipiac[81] | October 25–31, 2010 | 43% | 44% | |
| Mason-Dixon[82] | October 26–27, 2010 | 43% | 46% | |
| Rasmussen Reports[67] | October 27, 2010 | 48% | 45% | |
| Susquehanna/Sunshine State[83] | October 29–31, 2010 | 46% | 49% | |
| Public Policy Polling[84] | October 30–31, 2010 | 47% | 48% |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Bill McCollum | Alex Sink | Bud Chiles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[52] | August 11–16, 2010 | 29% | 31% | 12% |
| Mason-Dixon[51] | August 9–11, 2010 | 35% | 37% | 13% |
| Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[34] | August 6–10, 2010 | 26% | 30% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[50] | August 2, 2010 | 27% | 31% | 20% |
| The Florida Poll[36] | July 24–28, 2010 | 26% | 27% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac[49] | July 22–27, 2010 | 27% | 26% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling[48] | July 16–18, 2010 | 23% | 37% | 14% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[47] | July 9–11, 2010 | 30% | 31% | 12% |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce[39] | June 9–13, 2010 | 30% | 26% | 15% |
| Quinnipiac[46] | June 7, 2010 | 33% | 25% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[45] | June 7, 2010 | 40% | 38% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[44] | May 16, 2010 | 43% | 35% | — |
| Mason-Dixon[41] | May 7, 2010 | 45% | 36% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[44] | March 18, 2010 | 47% | 36% | — |
| Public Policy Polling[85] | March 5–8, 2010 | 44% | 31% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[44] | February 18, 2010 | 48% | 35% | — |
| Fabrizo/McLaughlin & Associates[86] | January 31, 2010 | 41% | 32% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[44] | January 27, 2010 | 46% | 35% | — |
| Quinnipiac[87] | January 27, 2010 | 41% | 31% | <1% |
| Rasmussen Reports[88] | December 14, 2009 | 44% | 39% | — |
| Research 2000[42] | November 16–18, 2009 | 35% | 33% | — |
| St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9[89] | October 25–28, 2009 | 37% | 38% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[90] | October 20, 2009 | 46% | 35% | — |
| Quinnipiac[91] | August 19, 2009 | 38% | 34% | 1% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[92] | August 4–5, 2009 | 48% | 37% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[93] | June 22, 2009 | 42% | 34% | — |
| Quinnipiac[94] | June 2–7, 2009 | 34% | 38% | 1% |
| Mason Dixon[95] | May 14–18, 2009 | 40% | 34% | — |
| Mason Dixon[96] | March 30 – April 1, 2009 | 36% | 35% | — |
The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote.[3] Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots fromPalm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount.[3] Sink conceded the day after the election.
Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote.[3]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Scott | 2,619,335 | 48.87% | −3.31% | |
| Democratic | Alex Sink | 2,557,785 | 47.72% | +2.62% | |
| Independence | Peter Allen | 123,831 | 2.31% | ||
| Independent | C. C. Reed | 18,842 | 0.35% | ||
| Independent | Michael E. Arth | 18,644 | 0.35% | ||
| Independent | Daniel Imperato | 13,690 | 0.26% | ||
| Independent | Farid Khavari | 7,487 | 0.14% | ||
| Write-ins | 121 | 0.00% | |||
| Plurality | 61,550 | 1.15% | -5.92% | ||
| Turnout | 5,359,735 | ||||
| Republicangain fromIndependent | Swing | ||||
Official campaign websites (Archived)
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