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2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska

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Main article:2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska

← 2004
November 4, 2008
2012 →
 
NomineeJohn McCainBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateArizonaIllinois
Running mateSarah PalinJoe Biden
Electoral vote41
Popular vote452,979333,319
Percentage56.53%41.60%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

McCain

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Votes

  
  


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in Nebraska
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The2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose five electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president. However, Nebraska is one of the two states of the U.S. that, instead of giving all of its electors to the winner based on its statewide results, allocates just two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote. The other three electors vote based on each congressional district's results.

Nebraska, statewide, was not aswing state in 2008. Located in the Great Plains of the United States, it is one of the most staunchly Republican states in the country. While some hypothetical general election match-up polls between RepublicanJohn McCain and DemocratBarack Obama showed the race to be seemingly close, they were largely regarded as outliers as more polls released showed McCain leading in double digits. McCain wound up carrying the popular vote in Nebraska by 14.93 points, taking in 56.53% of the total statewide vote. However, Obama narrowly defeated McCain inNebraska's 2nd congressional district, which containsOmaha and the surrounding areas. Obama was the first Democrat to win the district since 1964.

Due to Nebraska's system of allocating electoral votes to winners of Congressional Districts, Obama won one electoral vote while John McCain received the state's other four electoral votes. On top of this, his 41.6% of the statewide popular vote is the highest a Democratic presidential candidate has won in Nebraska sinceLyndon B. Johnson carried the state in his1964 landslide. This was the first election ever that Nebraska split its electoral votes, the first since 1964 that a Democrat won an electoral vote from the state, which would later occur in 2020, and 2024, and the first state to split its electoral votes without faithless electors since1960. As of 2024, this remains the last time that a Democrat has won more than 40% of the vote in Nebraska.

Primaries & caucuses

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report[1]Likely R
Cook Political Report[2]Solid R
The Takeaway[3]Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[4]Solid R
Washington Post[5]Solid R
Politico[6]Solid R
RealClearPolitics[7]Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[5]Solid R
CQ Politics[8]Solid R
The New York Times[9]Solid R
CNN[10]Solid R
NPR[5]Solid R
MSNBC[5]Solid R
Fox News[11]Likely R
Associated Press[12]Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[13]Safe R

Polling

[edit]
Main article:Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Nebraska

McCain led in every single pre-election poll. Since May, he led in each poll by a double-digit margin of victory and each with at least 52% of the vote.[14]

Fundraising

[edit]

John McCain raised a total of $678,059 in the state, while Barack Obama raised $864,393.[15]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Obama spent $55,807 while McCain and the Republican Trust PAC spent a total of just $1,225.[16]Both Obama and McCain visited the state once. Obama held a downtown rally atOmaha[17] and McCain traveled to both Omaha andAshland. Palin also visited Omaha once.[18]

Campaign in Omaha

[edit]

Nebraska has two electoral votes that go to the winner of the popular vote in the state, while the other three are split based on whichever candidate wins the popular vote in each of Nebraska's three congressional districts, all of which have trended Republican in the past elections. However, Nebraska's 2nd congressional District, which encompassesOmaha, is significantly less conservative.

Nebraska's second congressional was considered as a battleground area by some, leading the Obama campaign to open a single campaign office in Omaha with 15 staff members to cover the congressional district in September 2008.[19] More than 900 people attended the opening of those offices. Democratic MayorMike Fahey of Omaha said that he would do whatever it takes to deliver the electoral vote tied to the 2nd Congressional District to Obama, andthe Obama Campaign consideredNebraska's 2nd congressional district "in play".[20] Former DemocraticU.S. SenatorBob Kerrey and then seniorU.S. SenatorBen Nelson campaigned in the city for Obama.[21]

Analysis

[edit]

Nebraska, part of the conservative Great Plains region, is one of the most Republican states in the nation. It has only gone Democratic in a presidential election seven times since statehood. Continuing on that trend, McCain won Nebraska by nearly 15 points. Obama was only able to win four counties:Douglas County, which containsOmaha;Lancaster County, which contains the state capital ofLincoln and the University of Nebraska;Saline County; andThurston County, which contains a Native American reservation and was the only county to be won byJohn Kerry in2004. No Democratic presidential nominee sinceLyndon B. Johnson's landslide 1964 victory has ever won more than four counties in Nebraska.[22] In 2008, McCain wonNebraska's 1st Congressional District andNebraska's 3rd Congressional District by fairly safe margins,[23] along with the state as a whole, but Obama managed to carryNebraska's 2nd Congressional District, based in Omaha, by a slim margin of 1,260 votes, resulting in one of Nebraska's five electoral votes being awarded to Obama.[24] This was a particularly notable win, because withNebraska's split electoral vote system Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win an electoral vote from Nebraska since 1964.[25]

Obama did particularly well in the state's two most populated counties, Douglas and Lancaster. Obama was able to carve out small victories and became the first Democrat to carry those counties since 1964.[26] As of the2024 presidential election[update], this is the last election in whichSaline County voted Democratic.

During the same election, Republicans held the openU.S. Senate seat vacated by RepublicanChuck Hagel who retired. Former RepublicanGovernorMike Johanns easily defeated DemocratScott Kleeb, a rancher, by 17.46 points. Johanns received 57.52% of the total vote while Kleeb took in 40.06%. At the state level, a candidate known to be a Republican picked up a seat in thenonpartisan andunicameralNebraska Legislature in 2008.

Results

[edit]
2008 United States presidential election in Nebraska
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin452,97956.53%4
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden333,31941.60%1
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez5,4060.67%0
ConstitutionChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle2,9720.37%0
Write-insWrite-in candidates2,8370.35%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root2,7400.34%0
GreenCynthia McKinneyRosa Clemente1,0280.13%0
Totals801,281100.00%5
Voter turnoutn/a

By county

[edit]
CountyJohn McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams8,25262.47%4,68535.47%2732.06%3,56727.00%13,210
Antelope2,38374.82%75723.77%451.41%1,62651.05%3,185
Arthur21782.51%3914.83%72.66%17867.68%263
Banner34883.65%6214.90%61.45%28668.75%416
Blaine26684.18%4313.61%72.21%22370.57%316
Boone2,04272.00%74226.16%521.84%1,30045.84%2,836
Box Butte2,93258.89%1,88637.88%1613.23%1,04621.01%4,979
Boyd83975.59%25022.52%211.89%58953.07%1,110
Brown1,20877.09%31119.85%483.06%89757.24%1,567
Buffalo13,09767.88%5,86730.41%3291.71%7,23037.47%19,293
Burt1,90756.30%1,41341.72%671.98%49414.58%3,387
Butler2,55766.61%1,19031.00%922.39%1,36735.61%3,839
Cass7,12058.74%4,75339.21%2492.05%2,36719.53%12,122
Cedar2,91269.77%1,19028.51%721.72%1,72241.26%4,174
Chase1,47780.10%34118.49%261.41%1,13661.61%1,844
Cherry2,36077.15%59919.58%1003.27%1,76157.57%3,059
Cheyenne3,57273.82%1,17324.24%941.94%2,39949.58%4,839
Clay2,17771.78%78025.72%762.50%1,39746.06%3,033
Colfax2,01863.00%1,12535.12%601.88%89327.88%3,203
Cuming2,73266.85%1,27431.17%811.98%1,45835.68%4,087
Custer4,30177.11%1,19221.37%851.52%3,10955.74%5,578
Dakota3,29251.47%2,99446.81%1101.72%2984.66%6,396
Dawes2,37662.94%1,28534.04%1143.02%1,09128.90%3,775
Dawson5,46068.37%2,39930.04%1271.59%3,06138.33%7,986
Deuel73273.72%24324.47%181.81%48949.25%993
Dixon1,78563.89%94633.86%632.25%83930.03%2,794
Dodge8,55755.03%6,68943.02%3041.95%1,86812.01%15,550
Douglas106,29146.89%116,81051.53%3,6001.58%-10,519-4.64%226,701
Dundy78376.84%21821.39%181.77%56555.45%1,019
Fillmore1,91364.91%96232.64%722.45%95132.27%2,947
Franklin1,07969.52%44228.48%312.00%63741.04%1,552
Frontier1,03473.65%34924.86%211.49%68548.79%1,404
Furnas1,72574.10%55623.88%472.02%1,16950.22%2,328
Gage5,43553.49%4,47344.03%2522.48%9629.46%10,160
Garden84474.17%28324.87%110.96%56149.30%1,138
Garfield80077.67%21220.58%181.75%58857.09%1,030
Gosper77674.05%26024.81%121.14%51649.24%1,048
Grant31886.65%4111.17%82.18%27775.48%367
Greeley71559.63%45838.20%262.17%25721.43%1,199
Hall12,97761.01%7,85536.93%4392.06%5,12224.08%21,271
Hamilton3,38970.62%1,33227.76%781.62%2,05742.86%4,799
Harlan1,32975.25%40222.76%351.99%92752.49%1,766
Hayes46183.36%8515.37%71.27%37667.99%553
Hitchcock1,00172.59%34625.09%322.32%65547.50%1,379
Holt3,74675.31%1,08921.89%1392.80%2,65753.42%4,974
Hooker35581.05%7517.12%81.83%28063.93%438
Howard1,84761.65%1,08336.15%662.20%76425.50%2,996
Jefferson2,10356.88%1,52041.11%742.01%58315.77%3,697
Johnson1,14254.12%91443.32%542.56%22810.80%2,110
Kearney2,22470.60%87627.81%501.59%1,34842.79%3,150
Keith2,94274.14%97424.55%521.31%1,96849.59%3,968
Keya Paha40976.74%11521.58%91.68%29455.16%533
Kimball1,34674.32%43924.24%261.44%90750.08%1,811
Knox2,72866.80%1,25530.73%1012.47%1,47336.07%4,084
Lancaster59,39846.59%65,73451.56%2,3581.85%-6,336-4.97%127,490
Lincoln10,81766.46%5,04631.00%4142.54%5,77135.46%16,277
Logan32778.61%8119.47%81.92%24659.14%416
Loup30276.84%8621.88%51.28%21654.96%393
Madison9,65568.74%4,14229.49%2481.77%5,51339.25%14,045
McPherson24081.91%4515.36%82.73%19566.55%293
Merrick2,37569.22%98628.74%702.04%1,38940.48%3,431
Morrill1,72573.37%55723.69%692.94%1,16849.68%2,351
Nance1,11665.38%54932.16%422.46%56733.22%1,707
Nemaha2,13461.43%1,24035.69%1002.88%89425.74%3,474
Nuckolls1,49867.45%65729.58%662.97%84137.87%2,221
Otoe4,03356.87%2,91541.10%1442.03%1,11815.77%7,092
Pawnee85962.07%48334.90%423.03%37627.17%1,384
Perkins1,09276.90%31021.83%181.27%78255.07%1,420
Phelps3,36075.12%1,05023.47%631.41%2,31051.65%4,473
Pierce2,38573.93%78324.27%581.80%1,60249.66%3,226
Platte9,37369.84%3,79628.29%2511.87%5,57741.55%13,420
Polk1,82271.65%66826.27%532.08%1,15445.38%2,543
Red Willow3,73574.05%1,21624.11%931.84%2,51949.94%5,044
Richardson2,34259.02%1,51338.13%1132.85%82920.89%3,968
Rock64079.90%13917.35%222.75%50162.55%801
Saline2,43446.35%2,67450.92%1432.73%-240-4.57%5,251
Sarpy38,81657.06%28,01041.18%1,1961.76%10,80615.88%68,022
Saunders6,18860.60%3,76736.89%2572.51%2,42123.71%10,212
Scotts Bluff9,70865.91%4,74532.21%2771.88%4,96333.70%14,730
Seward4,64761.72%2,70335.90%1792.38%1,94425.82%7,529
Sheridan1,94178.84%45418.44%672.72%1,48760.40%2,462
Sherman95060.43%58537.21%372.36%36523.22%1,572
Sioux60382.38%11715.98%121.64%48666.40%732
Stanton1,78171.38%66426.61%502.01%1,11744.77%2,495
Thayer1,74965.78%86032.34%501.88%88933.44%2,659
Thomas33184.87%5113.08%82.05%28071.79%390
Thurston97245.72%1,12052.68%341.60%-148-6.96%2,126
Valley1,65768.39%70629.14%602.47%95139.25%2,423
Washington6,42562.26%3,71135.96%1841.78%2,71426.30%10,320
Wayne2,50365.73%1,24932.80%561.47%1,25432.93%3,808
Webster1,23367.86%55230.38%321.76%68137.48%1,817
Wheeler33475.91%9621.82%102.27%23854.09%440
York4,84873.81%1,60724.47%1131.72%3,24149.34%6,568
Totals452,97956.53%333,31941.60%14,9831.87%119,66014.93%801,281
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

McCain carried two of the state's three congressional districts, while Barack Obama carried one congressional district held by a Republican.[27]

DistrictMcCainObamaOtherRepresentative
#%#%#%
1st148,17954.10%121,41144.33%4,3031.57%Jeff Fortenberry
2nd135,43948.75%138,80949.97%3,5611.28%Lee Terry
3rd169,36168.64%73,09929.63%4,2821.73%Adrian Smith

Electors

[edit]
Main article:List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Nebraska cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Nebraska is allocated 5 electors because it has 3congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded 2 electoral votes, and the other 3 are allocated via the individual results of the congressional districts. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[28] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the 5 members of the Electoral College from the state. 4 of the electors were pledged toJohn McCain andSarah Palin; 2 at large, 1 for each of the 1st and 3rd Congressional districts. 1 was pledged toBarack Obama andJoe Biden:

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. RetrievedOctober 23, 2022.
  2. ^"Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived fromthe original on May 5, 2015. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  3. ^"Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived fromthe original on April 22, 2009. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  4. ^"Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily".electoral-vote.com. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  5. ^abcdBased on Takeaway
  6. ^"POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com".www.politico.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  7. ^"RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived fromthe original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^"CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008".CQ Politics. Archived fromthe original on June 14, 2009. RetrievedDecember 20, 2009.
  9. ^Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008)."The Electoral Map: Key States".The New York Times. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  10. ^"October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs".CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived fromthe original on June 19, 2010. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  11. ^"Winning The Electoral College".Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^"roadto270".hosted.ap.org. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  13. ^"Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports".www.rasmussenreports.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  14. ^Election 2008 Polls – Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. ^"Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived fromthe original on March 24, 2009. RetrievedAugust 19, 2009.
  16. ^"Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  17. ^YouTube – Barack Obama Omaha Rally
  18. ^"Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  19. ^"Obama Camp Targets Omaha: Obama Makes A Play In Nebraska, One Of Only Two States That Can Split It's Electoral Votes",CBS. Retrieved 9/27/08.
  20. ^Bratton, A.J."Hundreds visit Obama's Omaha headquarters", Associated Press. September 10, 2008. Retrieved 9/27/08.
  21. ^"Senators To Campaign In Omaha For Obama"Archived September 27, 2011, at theWayback Machine, KETV. September 12, 2008. Retrieved 9/27/08.
  22. ^Leip, David."Presidential General Election Map Comparison Nebraska". RetrievedApril 19, 2009.
  23. ^"CNN Election Center 2008 – Nebraska Results". RetrievedNovember 23, 2008.
  24. ^"Omaha.com Elections Section". RetrievedNovember 23, 2008.{{cite web}}:|archive-url= is malformed: timestamp (help)CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  25. ^"Obama wins electoral votes in Omaha",Omaha World-Herald. November 8, 2008. Retrieved 11/11/08.
  26. ^"Election Results 2008".New York Times. Archived fromthe original on November 3, 2004. RetrievedApril 19, 2009.
  27. ^"Official Results of Nebraska General Election - November 4, 2008"(PDF). RetrievedFebruary 1, 2025.
  28. ^"Electoral College".California Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original on October 30, 2008. RetrievedNovember 1, 2008.
  29. ^abcdeNebraska Certificate of Ascertainment, page 1 of 3.. National Archives and Records Administration.
  30. ^Elector casts first Nebraska Democratic vote in 44 years, Omaha World-Herald.
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