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The2008 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.
Montana was won by Republican nomineeJohn McCain by 11,273 votes, a 2.38% margin of victory. Before the election, Montana was initially viewed as safe Republican, but was viewed as lean Republican or toss-up in the final weeks. Historically the state is a Republican stronghold, but polls during the 2008 election showed DemocratBarack Obama just narrowly trailing Republican John McCain within the margin of error. On election day, McCain narrowly carried Montana. It was the fourth-closest state in the nation, behindMissouri,North Carolina, andIndiana,Missouri being a formerbellwether state, and the other three being traditionally Republican states.
Despite the fact thatBill Clinton carried the state in1992, Barack Obama's 47.11% of the vote was (and as of 2024 remains) the highest percent of the vote received by any Democratic candidate for president since1964. Bill Clinton's victory in 1992 and near miss in 1996 were attributed toRoss Perot's strongthird party candidacy in1992 and1996, the only other elections since 1964 when Montana was decided by under 5%. Obama was able to flip seven of Montana's counties from Republican to Democratic compared to the 2004 election. The election was the last in which Montana was considered to be a swing state by some outlets.
There were 15 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[1] | Likely R |
| Cook Political Report[2] | Toss-up |
| The Takeaway[3] | Lean R |
| Electoral-vote.com[4] | Lean R |
| Washington Post[5] | Lean R |
| Politico[6] | Lean R |
| RealClearPolitics[7] | Toss-up |
| FiveThirtyEight[5] | Toss-up |
| The New York Times[8] | Lean R |
| CNN[9] | Toss-up |
| NPR[5] | Lean R |
| MSNBC[5] | Toss-up |
| Fox News[10] | Likely R |
| Associated Press[11] | Likely R |
| Rasmussen Reports[12] | Toss-up |
Although RepublicanGeorge W. Bush of Texas carried Montana by double digits in both2000 and2004, polls taken throughout July indicated a close race between RepublicanJohn McCain of Arizona and DemocratBarack Obama of Illinois. WhenGovernorSarah Palin ofAlaska was announced as McCain's running mate in late August, however, McCain took a double-digit lead in the state that lasted until the middle of October, when polling once again showed the two candidates within striking distance of each other in the state. When the actual 2008 presidential election took place, McCain carried the state by about 2.38%.[13] The state's results were significantly closer than they were in the2004 election when George W. Bush carried the state by a margin of 20 points.[14]
John McCain raised a total of $386,940 in the state. Barack Obama raised $1,089,874.[15]
Obama and his interest groups spent $1,732,467. McCain and his interest groups spent just $134,805.[16] The Democratic ticket visited the state three times and McCain did not visit the state.[17]
Montana, a Republican-leaning state, has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election since1968, except in1992, when the state narrowly supported DemocratBill Clinton to RepublicanGeorge H. W. Bush.
Obama did very well among the Democratic base of Montana, which consists of three sections. Students inMissoula County, which is home to the University of Montana, helped him win a three-to-two margin there. In the southwest, Obama won more than 65% of the vote inDeer Lodge County andSilver Bow County—Democratic strongholds which have voted Republican only twice since1912; Obama also became the first Democratic presidential nominee to winGallatin County, home toBozeman, sinceFranklin D. Roosevelt in1944. Finally,Native Americans gave Obama strong support; in the eastern part of the state, Obama only won counties in which Native Americans composed at least 30% of the population.
McCain's base was in the eastern part of the state, which is less unionized and morerural. It is home to more ranchers and fewer miners than elsewhere. Only five counties voted Democratic in the east. In Western Montana, McCain generally won wherever Obama's Democratic base was lacking. His biggest margins came from the region bordering the GOP bastion ofIdaho.
There was also a relatively high third-party vote, totaling around four percent. The Montana Constitution Party ranlibertarian-leaning RepublicanU.S. RepresentativeRon Paul ofTexas on their line (against his wishes), winning 2.17% of the vote in Montana, which was the highest statewide percentage total for any third-party candidate in the 2008 presidential election. A significant number of write-in candidates also ran in the state, with some beating third-party candidates.
During the same election, incumbent DemocraticGovernorBrian Schweitzer wasreelected to a second term in a landslide over RepublicanRoy Brown and Libertarian Stan Jones. Winning by more than a two-to-one margin, Schweitzer received 65.21% of the vote while Brown took in 32.77% and Jones got 2.03%. Also during the same election, incumbent Democratic SenatorMax Baucus was handilyreelected to a sixth term overperennial candidateBob Kelleher running as a Republican, no third-party candidate was in the race. Due to Kelleher's policies, such as adopting a parliamentary system in the United States, adopting a single-payer healthcare system, and nationalizing American oil and gas industries, he received no support from Montana GOP, and Baucus defeated Kelleher by nearly a 3-to-1 margin, taking in 72.92% over Kelleher's 27.08% and winning every single county in the state. At the state level, however, Republicans picked up three seats in theMontana Senate and gained control of the chamber. Democrats picked up the office ofSecretary of State.
As of the2024 presidential election[update], this is the last election where Montana was seriously contested, as well as the last one in whichLake County,Cascade County,Rosebud County, andLewis and Clark County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is the last time the Big Sky Country would be decided by a single-digit margin, and the last time a candidate won the state with less than half of the vote. Obama became the first ever Democrat to win the White House without carryingMineral orSheridan Counties.
| 2008 United States presidential election in Montana[18] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 243,882 | 49.49% | 3 | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 232,159 | 47.11% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Ron Paul (no campaign) | Michael Peroutka | 10,669 | 2.17% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 3,699 | 0.75% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr | Wayne Allyn Root | 1,358 | 0.28% | 0 | |
| (write-in) | Write-in candidates | 817 | 0.17% | 0 | ||
| Constitution | Chuck Baldwin (write-in) | Darrell Castle | 143 | 0.03% | 0 | |
| Green | Cynthia McKinney (write-in) | Rosa Clemente | 23 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Totals | 492,750 | 100.00% | 3 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 67.4% | |||||
| County | John McCain Republican | Barack Obama Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Beaverhead | 3,008 | 63.15% | 1,617 | 33.95% | 138 | 2.90% | 1,391 | 29.20% | 4,763 |
| Big Horn | 1,628 | 31.19% | 3,516 | 67.37% | 75 | 1.44% | -1,888 | -36.18% | 5,219 |
| Blaine | 1,139 | 38.93% | 1,702 | 58.17% | 85 | 2.90% | -563 | -19.24% | 2,926 |
| Broadwater | 1,875 | 66.80% | 857 | 30.53% | 75 | 2.67% | 1,018 | 36.27% | 2,807 |
| Carbon | 3,108 | 54.05% | 2,443 | 42.49% | 199 | 3.46% | 665 | 11.56% | 5,750 |
| Carter | 573 | 79.36% | 111 | 15.37% | 38 | 5.27% | 462 | 63.99% | 722 |
| Cascade | 16,857 | 47.62% | 17,664 | 49.90% | 875 | 2.48% | -807 | -2.28% | 35,396 |
| Chouteau | 1,634 | 57.11% | 1,122 | 39.22% | 105 | 3.67% | 512 | 17.89% | 2,861 |
| Custer | 3,047 | 55.89% | 2,267 | 41.58% | 138 | 2.53% | 780 | 14.31% | 5,452 |
| Daniels | 694 | 64.68% | 343 | 31.97% | 36 | 3.35% | 351 | 32.71% | 1,073 |
| Dawson | 2,639 | 59.38% | 1,593 | 35.85% | 212 | 4.77% | 1,046 | 23.53% | 4,444 |
| Deer Lodge | 1,502 | 29.60% | 3,402 | 67.05% | 170 | 3.35% | -1,900 | -37.45% | 5,074 |
| Fallon | 1,064 | 74.25% | 318 | 22.19% | 51 | 3.56% | 746 | 52.06% | 1,433 |
| Fergus | 4,108 | 65.92% | 1,933 | 31.02% | 191 | 3.06% | 2,175 | 34.90% | 6,232 |
| Flathead | 25,559 | 58.43% | 16,138 | 36.89% | 2,047 | 4.68% | 9,421 | 21.54% | 43,744 |
| Gallatin | 22,578 | 46.77% | 24,205 | 50.14% | 1,489 | 3.09% | -1,627 | -3.37% | 48,272 |
| Garfield | 598 | 82.26% | 110 | 15.13% | 19 | 2.61% | 488 | 67.13% | 727 |
| Glacier | 1,451 | 29.19% | 3,423 | 68.86% | 97 | 1.95% | -1,972 | -39.67% | 4,971 |
| Golden Valley | 343 | 69.72% | 124 | 25.20% | 25 | 5.08% | 219 | 44.52% | 492 |
| Granite | 1,013 | 58.96% | 601 | 34.98% | 104 | 6.06% | 412 | 23.98% | 1,718 |
| Hill | 2,787 | 42.07% | 3,596 | 54.28% | 242 | 3.65% | -809 | -12.21% | 6,625 |
| Jefferson | 3,538 | 55.80% | 2,582 | 40.72% | 221 | 3.48% | 956 | 15.08% | 6,341 |
| Judith Basin | 801 | 64.81% | 397 | 32.12% | 38 | 3.07% | 404 | 32.69% | 1,236 |
| Lake | 6,498 | 46.56% | 6,766 | 48.48% | 692 | 4.96% | -268 | -1.92% | 13,956 |
| Lewis and Clark | 14,966 | 45.31% | 17,114 | 51.82% | 949 | 2.87% | -2,148 | -6.51% | 33,029 |
| Liberty | 594 | 59.34% | 367 | 36.66% | 40 | 4.00% | 227 | 22.68% | 1,001 |
| Lincoln | 5,704 | 61.82% | 3,025 | 32.78% | 498 | 5.40% | 2,679 | 29.04% | 9,227 |
| Madison | 2,822 | 61.78% | 1,607 | 35.18% | 139 | 3.04% | 1,215 | 26.60% | 4,568 |
| McCone | 726 | 66.54% | 321 | 29.42% | 44 | 4.04% | 405 | 37.12% | 1,091 |
| Meagher | 624 | 64.60% | 298 | 30.85% | 44 | 4.55% | 326 | 33.75% | 966 |
| Mineral | 1,053 | 52.73% | 845 | 42.31% | 99 | 4.96% | 208 | 10.42% | 1,997 |
| Missoula | 20,743 | 34.99% | 36,531 | 61.63% | 2,003 | 3.38% | -15,788 | -26.64% | 59,277 |
| Musselshell | 1,581 | 68.56% | 636 | 27.58% | 89 | 3.86% | 945 | 40.98% | 2,306 |
| Park | 4,376 | 49.18% | 4,173 | 46.90% | 349 | 3.92% | 203 | 2.28% | 8,898 |
| Petroleum | 227 | 75.67% | 68 | 22.67% | 5 | 1.66% | 159 | 53.00% | 300 |
| Phillips | 1,423 | 67.03% | 638 | 30.05% | 62 | 2.92% | 785 | 36.98% | 2,123 |
| Pondera | 1,588 | 55.04% | 1,223 | 42.39% | 74 | 2.57% | 365 | 12.65% | 2,885 |
| Powder River | 802 | 77.26% | 208 | 20.04% | 28 | 2.70% | 594 | 57.22% | 1,038 |
| Powell | 1,683 | 59.81% | 1,021 | 36.28% | 110 | 3.91% | 662 | 23.53% | 2,814 |
| Prairie | 503 | 68.44% | 211 | 28.71% | 21 | 2.85% | 292 | 39.73% | 735 |
| Ravalli | 13,002 | 58.83% | 8,400 | 38.01% | 699 | 3.16% | 4,602 | 20.82% | 22,101 |
| Richland | 3,184 | 70.50% | 1,203 | 26.64% | 129 | 2.86% | 1,981 | 43.86% | 4,516 |
| Roosevelt | 1,473 | 35.47% | 2,564 | 61.74% | 116 | 2.79% | -1,091 | -26.27% | 4,153 |
| Rosebud | 1,768 | 46.40% | 1,919 | 50.37% | 123 | 3.23% | -151 | -3.97% | 3,810 |
| Sanders | 3,563 | 60.72% | 1,970 | 33.57% | 335 | 5.71% | 1,593 | 27.15% | 5,868 |
| Sheridan | 987 | 49.20% | 953 | 47.51% | 66 | 3.29% | 34 | 1.69% | 2,006 |
| Silver Bow | 4,818 | 28.27% | 11,676 | 68.51% | 548 | 3.22% | -6,858 | -40.24% | 17,042 |
| Stillwater | 2,991 | 64.09% | 1,512 | 32.40% | 164 | 3.51% | 1,479 | 31.69% | 4,667 |
| Sweet Grass | 1,494 | 71.72% | 541 | 25.97% | 48 | 2.31% | 953 | 45.75% | 2,083 |
| Teton | 1,874 | 57.27% | 1,294 | 39.55% | 104 | 3.18% | 580 | 17.72% | 3,272 |
| Toole | 1,317 | 62.09% | 737 | 34.75% | 67 | 3.16% | 580 | 27.34% | 2,121 |
| Treasure | 314 | 64.61% | 156 | 32.10% | 16 | 3.29% | 158 | 32.51% | 486 |
| Valley | 2,121 | 54.23% | 1,645 | 42.06% | 145 | 3.71% | 476 | 12.17% | 3,911 |
| Wheatland | 657 | 66.84% | 289 | 29.40% | 37 | 3.76% | 368 | 37.44% | 983 |
| Wibaux | 379 | 67.32% | 146 | 25.93% | 38 | 6.75% | 233 | 41.39% | 563 |
| Yellowstone | 36,483 | 51.62% | 32,038 | 45.33% | 2,158 | 3.05% | 4,445 | 6.29% | 70,679 |
| Totals | 243,882 | 49.49% | 232,159 | 47.11% | 16,709 | 3.39% | 11,723 | 2.38% | 492,750 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold |
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated, the At-Large District. This district covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| At-large | 49.49% | 47.11% | Denny Rehberg |
Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1congressional district and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[19] An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as afaithless elector.
The electors of eachstate and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 were pledged toJohn McCain andSarah Palin:[20]
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