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2008 United States presidential election in Missouri

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in Missouri

← 2004November 4, 20082012 →
 
NomineeJohn McCainBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateArizonaIllinois
Running mateSarah PalinJoe Biden
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,445,8141,441,911
Percentage49.43%49.29%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

McCain

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in Missouri
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2000
2004
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The2008 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on November 4, 2008, and was part of the2008 United States presidential election, which took place throughout all 50 states andD.C. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.

Missouri was won by Republican nomineeJohn McCain by 3,903 votes, a 0.14% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this state a toss-up, or aswing state. On election day, Missouri was the closest state in 2008, with most news organizations not calling the state until two weeks after the election.[1] A high turnout of voters in the GOP strongholds ofGreene County (Springfield) andSt. Charles County, combined with DemocratBarack Obama's lackluster performance in the more rural parts of the state, gave the edge to McCain. Since the margin of victory was less than 1%, Obama could have legally called for a recount at no expense to himself, but he ultimately chose not to do so. This was likely because he had already received enough electoral votes to win the presidency which rendered Missouri's 11 electoral votes inconsequential and a recount would have been unlikely to change the outcome.[2]

Obama became the first Democrat to ever win the presidency without carrying Missouri, and McCain the first Republican to carry Missouri without winning the presidency.

Combined with the state's swing to the right in2000 and2004 and the further bleeding of Democratic support in white, rural areas, this would be the last time when Missouri was seriously contested and considered to be a swing/bellwether state. The state continued moving deeper and safer into the Republican side four years later and onward, and as such, this is the most recent election when the Republican candidate won less than 50% of the state's popular vote. As of2024, this is the last time thatIron,Jefferson,Washington,Ste. Genevieve, andBuchanan Counties voted for the Democratic candidate. Despite losing, Obama's 1,441,911 votes are the most received by a Democratic presidential candidate in the state's history.

Primaries

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

With the advent of the September financial crisis, Obama began to look viable. John McCain's lead diminished and then disappeared; for several weeks Obama even led Missouri polls.[3] Obama started visiting Republican-leaning states, including Missouri. In one of the more memorable trips of the campaign, he drew crowds of 75,000 atKansas City and 100,000 atSt. Louis.[4] However, John McCain's campaign managed to close the gap and most polls showed a dead tie on and before Election Day.

Although seven of Missouri's eight neighboring states offered the option ofearly voting, the option was not available in Missouri.[5] Election results must go through a certification process before they are official; local election officials had until November 18 to verify their results and process theprovisional ballots cast throughout Missouri.[5]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report[6]Likely R
Cook Political Report[7]Toss-up
The Takeaway[8]Toss-up
Electoral-vote.com[9]Lean R
Washington Post[10]Lean R
Politico[11]Lean R
RealClearPolitics[12]Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight[10]Lean R
CQ Politics[13]Toss-up
The New York Times[14]Toss-up
CNN[15]Toss-up
NPR[10]Lean R
MSNBC[10]Toss-up
Fox News[16]Toss-up
Associated Press[17]Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports[18]Toss-up

Polling

[edit]
Main article:Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Missouri

Throughout the general election, McCain consistently won the state's pre-election polls, even reaching above 50% in some of them. In the fall campaign, polls were back and forth with both. In the last few weeks when Obama was having the momentum, the final 5 polls taken in the state were all a tie.[19]

Here are the final polls in the state:

Poll SourceDate administeredDemocrat%Republican%Lead Margin
Reuters/Zogby[20]October 31-
November 3, 2008
Barack Obama48.8%John McCain48.8%
0
Rasmussen Reports/
Fox News[21]
November 2, 2008Barack Obama49%John McCain49%
0
Public Policy Polling[22]October 31 – November 2, 2008Barack Obama49.4%John McCain48.6%
0.8
Reuters/Zogby[23]October 30-
November 2, 2008
Barack Obama47.4%John McCain45.7%
1.7
Survey USA[24]October 30 – November 2, 2008Barack Obama48%John McCain48%
0

Fundraising

[edit]

John McCain raised a total of $2,904,162 in the state. Barack Obama raised $4,999,812.[25]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Obama and his interest groups spent $11,323,706. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,428,559.[26]

The Democratic ticket visited the state 13 times throughout the general election. The Republican ticket visited here 14 times.[27]

McCain's Visits:

Obama's Visits:

Analysis

[edit]

For the better part of a century, Missouri was considered to be the nation's primebellwether state. From1904 to2004, Missouri voted for the winner in every presidential election except1956, when the state narrowly voted for DemocratAdlai Stevenson of neighboringIllinois over incumbent Republican PresidentDwight D. Eisenhower. In recent years, however, it has trended Republican. AlthoughBill Clinton of neighboringArkansas won the state with ease during both of his elections in1992 and1996,Al Gore andJohn Kerry considered Missouri a lost cause and did not campaign much there. Despite being from neighboring Illinois, Obama too initially put the state as a secondary concern in relation to otherswing states such asOhio andVirginia where he thought he had a better chance. As his lead diminished in the summer months, he and McCain moved the campaign to more Democratic-friendly states, as McCain maintained a comfortable polling lead in Missouri. Similar hypothetical general match-up polls taken between McCain andHillary Clinton, however, showed Clinton always leading in Missouri.

A record 2.9 million Missourians, or 69% of eligible voters, cast their ballots in the general election, about 200,000 more than the previous record in the2004 elections.[38] On Election Day, McCain clung to a tiny lead, with absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted. By November 19, McCain led Obama by 1,445,813–1,441,910 votes,[5] or approximately 0.14% of the total popular vote in Missouri.CNN called the state for McCain that day.[39] The 2008 election was only the second time in 104 years that it had not voted for the winner of the general election. Missouri was, however, the closest state of the 2008 election.

The Democratic base of Missouri rests in its two largest cities in the west and east –Kansas City andSt. Louis, respectively. Obama did extremely well here, winning 83.55% of the vote in St. Louis City and 78.4% in Kansas City. Obama was already a familiar face to St. Louis-area voters, since the St. Louis metro area spills into Illinois. McCain narrowly won the areas inJackson County outside Kansas City with 49.9% to Obama's 48.8%, but Obama carried the county with 62.14% of the vote due to his strong performance in Kansas City. These two cities had contributed to close margins for elections in Missouri, and 2008 was no different, as these cities frequently create large margins for Democrats.

One of the most important counties in the state for either candidate in Missouri elections is St. Louis County. The county has a population of more than 1 million, and had delivered victories for Democrats since 1992, but by relatively small margins of 6 points in 2000 and 9 points in 2004. Obama outperformed both Gore and Kerry, delivering a 20-point margin for Obama.St. Louis County (where he also won 59.50% of the vote), combined with his landslide wins in Kansas City and St. Louis gave him a 300,000 margin over McCain.[40]

St. Louis County had been growing increasingly more of a Democratic stronghold, the last time a Republican was able to win the county was in 1988. As reflected nationally, suburban counties practiced a moderate form of conservatism, and had rejected the growing social conservatism of the Republican party. The county, the most affluent in the state, is largely suburban with a racially diverse population. His victory was the strongest performance for a Democrat in the county since 1964. Obama was also able to carryBoone County, home to the large college town ofColumbia (Missouri's fifth-largest city and home of the state's flagshipUniversity of Missouri campus), andJefferson County, which consists of the southern St. Louis suburbs such asArnold andFestus.George W. Bush narrowly won Jefferson County in 2004 over John Kerry.

However, Obama was unable to substantially improve on Kerry's performance in rural Missouri, which is largely responsible for Missouri's Republican tilt. During the 2008 Missouri Democratic Primary, every rural county in Missouri (with the exception ofNodaway County, home of Northwest Missouri State University inMaryville in Northwestern Missouri), strongly backed Hillary Clinton, often by more than two-to-one margins. Many, if not all, of these counties that Clinton won in the Missouri Primary ended up voting for McCain in the general election. A number of these counties are ancestrally Democratic. However, these counties are very similar in character toYellow Dog Democrat areas in neighboring Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma. The Democrats in these areas are nowhere near as liberal as their counterparts in St. Louis and Kansas City, and much like their counterparts in neighboring Tennessee and Arkansas, had become increasingly willing to support Republicans at the national level.

Obama lost by an almost two-to-one margin in Southwest Missouri, a Republican stronghold for the better part of a century. This region is entrenched in theBible Belt and embedded with deep pockets of social conservatives that includesSpringfield andJoplin. Even Bill Clinton could not win Southwest Missouri in 1992 despite the fact that he won the state by double digits. Rural Northern Missouri voted against Obama by a three-to-two margin; this region warmly supported Bill Clinton in both of his bids. Obama also lost much of rural Southeast Missouri. Unlike Northern and Southwest Missouri, Southeast Missouri, which strongly backed Bill Clinton both times, is more Democratic at the local and state levels. The region takes in theLead Belt, theBootheel and theOzark Plateau and includes the largest city ofCape Girardeau, a booming college town but also a conservative, upper-middle class community that votes overwhelmingly Republican. Southeast Missouri is socially conservative but economically liberal, consistently electing Democrats at the local and state levels. While Obama ran even in the area southwest of St. Louis, he did worse than John Kerry in the Bootheel.[40] Obama was, however, able to pick up two counties in Southeast Missouri:Washington County (by a margin of five votes) andIron County. Both counties are predominantly rural and White but are some of the most impoverished counties in the state that are controlled by Democrats at the local and state levels. Both counties gave Hillary Clinton over 70% of the vote in the Missouri Primary as well.

Obama was allowed to request a recount under state law since preliminary results showed a difference of less than 1% of the votes. The request would have had to be granted by the state.[41] However, since Obama already won the election and Missouri would not have affected the outcome, he ultimately did not request one. As of 2024, this is the closest a Northern Democrat has come to winning Missouri sinceJohn F. Kennedy ofMassachusetts did so in 1960, as the previous three Democratic presidential candidates to win the state were all from theSouth (Lyndon B. Johnson ofTexas,Jimmy Carter ofGeorgia, andBill Clinton ofArkansas). This was the first presidential election that a Democrat won without winning the state of Missouri, a feat Obama would repeat in 2012, as well as his former running mateJoe Biden in 2020.

During the same election, DemocraticAttorney GeneralJay Nixon defeatedU.S. RepresentativeKenny Hulshof in a landslide forthe Governor's Mansion. Incumbent Republican GovernorMatt Blunt did not seek a second term. Nixon performed extremely well in rural Missouri and clinched 58.40% of the total statewide vote compared to Hulshof's 39.49% to become Governor of Missouri. Republicans were, however, able to hold on to theU.S. House seat inMissouri's 9th Congressional District that was vacated by Hulshof in his unsuccessful gubernatorial bid. Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer narrowly defeated Democrat Judy Baker by less than 3 percentage points, in large part due to McCain winning it by 11 points. At the state level, Democrats picked up three seats in theMissouri House of Representatives but Republicans expanded their majority in theMissouri Senate, picking up three seats here. Furthermore, upon the 2008 election, Democrats controlled all statewide offices but one;Lieutenant GovernorPeter Kinder was the sole Republican. Democrats held on to the office of Attorney General that was vacated by Governor-elect Nixon; DemocratChris Koster defeated Republican Mike Gibbons 52.83% to 47.17%. Democrats also picked up the office ofState Treasurer that was vacated by RepublicanSarah Steelman in her unsuccessful bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. DemocratClint Zweifel defeated Republican Brad Lager 50.47% to 47.14%.

Results

[edit]
2008 United States presidential election in Missouri[42]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin1,445,81449.43%11
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden1,441,91149.29%0
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez17,8130.61%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root11,3860.39%0
ConstitutionChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle8,2010.28%0
Green (write-in)Cynthia McKinneyRosa Clemente800.00%0
Totals2,925,205100.00%11
Voter turnout (Voting age population)66.1%

By county

[edit]
CountyJohn McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair5,89149.63%5,73548.31%2452.06%1561.32%11,871
Andrew5,27960.06%3,34538.05%1661.89%1,93422.01%8,790
Atchison1,93665.05%1,00033.60%401.35%93631.45%2,976
Audrain6,16757.20%4,43441.13%1801.67%1,73316.07%10,781
Barry9,75866.63%4,63031.62%2561.75%5,12835.01%14,644
Barton4,41474.21%1,45524.46%791.33%2,95949.75%5,948
Bates4,83358.35%3,27139.49%1792.16%1,56218.86%8,283
Benton5,75959.92%3,62937.76%2232.32%2,13022.16%9,611
Bollinger3,97268.67%1,69029.22%1222.11%2,28239.45%5,784
Boone36,84943.22%47,06255.20%1,3401.58%-10,213-11.98%85,251
Buchanan19,11048.68%19,16448.81%9862.51%-54-0.13%39,260
Butler11,80568.09%5,31630.66%2171.25%6,48937.43%17,338
Caldwell2,65458.15%1,81439.75%962.10%84018.40%4,564
Callaway11,38958.81%7,58039.14%3972.05%3,80919.67%19,366
Camden14,07463.40%7,77335.02%3501.58%6,30128.38%22,197
Cape Girardeau24,76866.14%12,20832.60%4701.26%12,56033.54%37,446
Carroll2,95565.12%1,53533.83%481.05%1,42031.29%4,538
Carter1,84063.49%98433.95%742.56%85629.54%2,898
Cass29,69558.99%19,84439.42%8021.59%9,85119.57%50,341
Cedar4,19466.01%2,06032.42%1001.57%2,13433.59%6,354
Chariton2,33955.51%1,79942.69%761.80%54012.82%4,214
Christian25,38267.08%11,88331.41%5721.51%13,49935.67%37,837
Clark1,78251.56%1,57245.49%1922.95%2106.07%3,456
Clay54,51649.55%53,76148.86%1,7481.59%7550.69%110,025
Clinton5,70954.61%4,54543.48%2001.91%1,16411.13%10,454
Cole24,38562.79%13,95935.95%4901.26%10,42626.84%38,834
Cooper4,90261.08%2,99637.33%1281.59%1,90623.75%8,026
Crawford6,00759.56%3,91138.78%1671.66%2,09620.78%10,085
Dade2,86469.65%1,18428.79%641.56%1,68040.86%4,112
Dallas4,89563.71%2,65634.57%1321.72%2,23929.14%7,683
Daviess2,26359.77%1,40036.98%1233.25%86322.79%3,786
DeKalb2,88961.29%1,69235.89%1332.82%1,19725.40%4,714
Dent4,65567.78%2,05629.94%1572.28%2,59937.84%6,868
Douglas4,40565.63%2,14031.88%1672.49%2,26533.75%6,712
Dunklin7,04459.88%4,54038.59%1801.53%2,50421.29%11,764
Franklin27,35555.31%21,25642.98%8471.71%6,09912.33%49,458
Gasconade4,76361.29%2,89937.31%1091.40%1,86423.98%7,771
Gentry1,96459.66%1,23537.52%932.82%72922.14%3,292
Greene77,68357.06%56,18141.26%2,2831.68%21,50215.80%136,147
Grundy3,00663.42%1,58033.33%1543.25%1,42630.09%4,740
Harrison2,51264.16%1,28732.87%1162.97%1,22531.29%3,915
Henry6,09554.62%4,86943.63%1951.75%1,22610.99%11,159
Hickory2,85055.72%2,17142.44%941.84%67913.28%5,115
Holt1,79468.14%80230.46%371.40%99237.68%2,633
Howard2,70855.78%2,03641.94%1112.28%67213.84%4,855
Howell10,98264.49%5,73633.68%3111.83%5,24630.81%17,029
Iron2,09047.35%2,21350.14%1112.51%-123-2.79%4,414
Jackson124,68736.75%210,82462.14%3,7551.11%-86,137-25.39%339,266
Jasper31,66765.67%15,73032.62%8221.71%15,93733.05%48,219
Jefferson50,80447.91%53,46750.42%1,7791.67%-2,663-2.51%106,050
Johnson12,18355.18%9,48042.93%4171.89%2,70312.25%22,080
Knox1,21259.73%75937.41%582.86%45322.32%2,029
Laclede10,87566.40%5,21831.86%2861.74%5,65734.54%16,379
Lafayette9,44256.88%6,90241.58%2561.54%2,54015.30%16,600
Lawrence11,26367.50%5,09730.55%3251.95%6,16636.95%16,685
Lewis2,59457.62%1,83740.80%711.58%75716.82%4,502
Lincoln12,92454.72%10,23443.33%4611.95%2,69011.39%23,619
Linn3,14052.94%2,63844.48%1532.58%5028.46%5,931
Livingston3,99360.94%2,43537.16%1241.90%1,55823.78%6,552
Macon4,58661.36%2,78437.25%1041.39%1,80224.11%7,474
Madison2,89757.62%2,04240.61%891.77%85517.01%5,028
Maries2,85362.58%1,59935.07%1072.35%1,25427.51%4,559
Marion7,70561.38%4,70337.47%1451.15%3,00223.91%12,553
McDonald5,49967.60%2,45430.17%1822.23%3,04537.43%8,135
Mercer1,16966.88%51929.69%603.43%65037.19%1,748
Miller7,79767.43%3,55330.73%2131.84%4,24436.70%11,563
Mississippi3,03456.65%2,24741.95%751.40%78714.70%5,356
Moniteau4,46767.02%2,08431.27%1141.71%2,38335.75%6,665
Monroe2,53358.72%1,70339.48%781.81%83019.24%4,314
Montgomery3,42858.54%2,34740.08%811.38%1,08118.46%5,856
Morgan5,45159.58%3,56538.97%1331.45%1,88620.61%9,149
New Madrid4,59356.76%3,37041.65%1291.59%1,22315.11%8,092
Newton17,63769.42%7,45029.32%3191.26%10,18740.10%25,406
Nodaway5,56854.49%4,49343.97%1581.54%1,07510.52%10,219
Oregon2,65257.77%1,81139.45%1282.78%84118.32%4,591
Osage5,06271.51%1,90726.94%1101.55%3,15544.57%7,079
Ozark2,91862.27%1,66135.45%1072.28%1,25726.82%4,686
Pemiscot3,95456.11%3,02942.98%640.91%92513.13%7,047
Perry5,52763.92%3,00534.75%1151.33%2,52229.17%8,647
Pettis11,01860.32%6,93237.95%3151.73%4,08622.37%18,265
Phelps11,70659.96%7,39437.87%4242.17%4,31222.09%19,524
Pike4,26853.97%3,48744.09%1531.94%7819.88%7,908
Platte24,46052.44%21,45946.01%7211.55%3,0016.43%46,640
Polk8,95665.39%4,55333.24%1881.37%4,40332.15%13,697
Pulaski9,55263.68%5,24934.99%1991.33%4,30328.69%15,000
Putnam1,59168.02%69529.71%532.27%89638.31%2,339
Ralls2,98758.75%2,04140.15%561.10%94618.60%5,084
Randolph6,45760.59%3,98437.39%2152.02%2,47323.20%10,656
Ray5,59350.60%5,24147.42%2191.98%3523.18%11,053
Reynolds1,78254.21%1,41843.14%872.65%36411.07%3,287
Ripley3,40763.53%1,79533.47%1613.00%1,61230.06%5,363
Saline4,96250.39%4,71247.85%1741.76%2502.54%9,848
Schuyler1,13957.44%77539.08%693.48%36418.36%1,983
Scotland1,24959.53%79337.80%562.67%45621.73%2,098
Scott11,56363.95%6,25834.61%2611.44%5,30529.34%18,082
Shannon2,07554.06%1,63742.65%1263.29%43811.41%3,838
Shelby2,16665.32%1,11433.59%361.09%1,05231.73%3,316
St. Charles102,55054.27%84,18344.55%2,2241.18%18,3679.72%188,957
St. Clair2,98159.76%1,88637.81%1212.43%1,09521.95%4,988
St. Francois12,66051.57%11,54047.01%3501.42%1,1204.56%24,550
St. Louis221,70539.60%333,12359.50%5,0260.90%-111,418-19.90%559,854
St. Louis City24,66215.50%132,92583.55%1,5170.95%-108,263-68.05%159,104
Ste. Genevieve3,73242.29%4,97956.42%1141.29%-1,247-14.13%8,825
Stoddard9,17269.16%3,89929.40%1911.44%5,27339.76%13,262
Stone11,14767.78%5,02930.58%2691.64%6,11837.20%16,445
Sullivan1,60756.01%1,17340.89%893.10%43415.12%2,869
Taney14,73667.78%6,68330.74%3221.48%8,05337.04%21,741
Texas7,21566.49%3,41031.43%2262.08%3,80535.06%10,851
Vernon5,33460.08%3,38138.08%1631.84%1,95322.00%8,878
Warren8,67555.69%6,70543.05%1961.26%1,97012.64%15,576
Washington4,70648.95%4,71149.00%1972.05%-5-0.05%9,614
Wayne3,78461.49%2,24336.45%1272.06%1,54125.04%6,154
Webster10,43163.77%5,68534.76%2401.47%4,74629.01%16,356
Worth70760.22%42736.37%403.41%28023.85%1,174
Wright5,78467.94%2,55730.03%1732.03%3,22737.91%8,514
Totals1,445,81449.36%1,441,91149.23%41,3861.41%3,9030.13%2,929,111
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

McCain carried six of the state's nine congressional districts, including one district held by a Democrat.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
1st19.38%79.70%William Lacy Clay, Jr.
2nd54.98%44.04%Todd Akin
3rd39.06%59.50%Russ Carnahan
4th60.58%37.87%Ike Skelton
5th35.45%63.47%Emanuel Cleaver
6th53.58%44.67%Sam Graves
7th63.07%35.39%Roy Blunt
8th61.92%36.42%Jo Ann Emerson
9th54.77%43.66%Kenny Hulshof (110th Congress)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (111th Congress)

Electors

[edit]
Main article:List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has 9congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[43] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged toJohn McCain andSarah Palin:[44]

  1. Willis Corbett
  2. Scott Dickenson
  3. Robert Haul
  4. Ronny Margason
  5. Cathy Owens
  6. Ron Muck
  7. Gene Hall
  8. R. Mellene Schudy
  9. Nadine Thurman
  10. Paul Nahon
  11. Jerry Dowell

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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  34. ^[1][dead link]
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  37. ^http://ozarksfirst.com/content/fulltext/?cid=77101[permanent dead link]
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