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2008 United States presidential election in Mississippi

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in Mississippi

← 2004
November 4, 2008
2012 →
 
NomineeJohn McCainBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateArizonaIllinois
Running mateSarah PalinJoe Biden
Electoral vote60
Popular vote724,597554,662
Percentage56.17%43.00%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

McCain

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in Mississippi
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House

The2008 United States presidential election in Mississippi took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 6 representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.

Mississippi was won by Republican nomineeJohn McCain with a 13.17% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise ared state. Although the state has the largest African American percentage in the country, Mississippi remains a safe red state at the presidential level, having voted Republican every election year since1980. While there was comparably high African American turnout compared to previous elections in Mississippi and Obama performed significantly better than Kerry in 2004, it was not enough to overcome the state's strong Republican leanings.

To date, this is the last timeWarren County backed the national losing candidate.

Primaries

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report[1]Likely R
Cook Political Report[2]Solid R
The Takeaway[3]Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[4]Solid R
Washington Post[5]Solid R
Politico[6]Solid R
RealClearPolitics[7]Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[5]Solid R
CQ Politics[8]Solid R
The New York Times[9]Solid R
CNN[10]Safe R
NPR[5]Solid R
MSNBC[5]Solid R
Fox News[11]Likely R
Associated Press[12]Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[13]Safe R

Polling

[edit]
Main article:Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Mississippi

McCain won every single pre-election poll, each with at least 50% of the vote with the exception of the one of them. The final 3 polls average gave the Republican a lead of 51% to 39%.[14]

Fundraising

[edit]

John McCain raised a total of $1,386,749 in the state. Barack Obama raised $768,981.[15]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Obama spent $238,401. McCain and his interest groups spent $139,999.[16] The McCain ticket visited three times. Obama's ticket visited the state once.[17]

Analysis

[edit]

Mississippi is one of the most racially polarized states in presidential elections. African Americans uniformly vote Democratic, while Whites vote Republican nearly as uniformly. In 2004, 14% of Caucasians voted forJohn Kerry, and 10% of African Americans voted for Bush, according to exit polling.[18] White Democrats began splitting their tickets in national elections as early as the 1940s when the national party became more friendly to theCivil Rights Movement, culminating whenBarry Goldwater carried the state with a staggering 87 percent of the vote in1964. The Republican trend accelerated in the late 1970s with the rise of thereligious right, which appealed to its status as aBible Belt state. The last Democratic presidential nominee to win Mississippi wasJimmy Carter in1976, even then, he only won it by 1.9 points. Due to its status as a safe red state, little campaigning took place in Mississippi by either of the two major party candidates. Indeed, the state was last seriously contested in1980.

In 2008, Barack Obama was able to improve on Kerry's performance by six percent, mainly due to the higher African American turnout. Obama's main support was in the western delta counties next to theMississippi River. In contrast, McCain's margins came from the regions bordering the Gulf Coast, the northeast Appalachian area, and theJackson andMemphis suburbs. Voting became even more polarized: nine in ten Whites voted Republican, and nearly all African-Americans voted Democratic in Mississippi, according to exit polls.[18] As expected, McCain carried Mississippi by a comfortable 13.17-point margin over Obama. McCain's margin of victory, however, was less than that ofGeorge W. Bush's 19.69-point margin of victory over John Kerry in 2004.Oktibbeha County voted Democratic for the first time since1956.

Mississippi was also the only state to list the official candidates of theReform Party on its ballot.[19]

At the same time, incumbent RepublicanU.S. SenatorThad Cochran was reelected with 61.44% of the vote over DemocratErik Fleming who received 38.56%. AppointedU.S. SenatorRoger Wicker stood for election as well in 2008 against former DemocraticGovernorRonnie Musgrove. The race was expected to be much closer, but the Republicans ran ads accusing Musgrove of supportinggay rights,not a popular position in this strongly socially conservative state. Wicker defeated Musgrove by almost 10 points, 54.96%-45.04%.

Results

[edit]
2008 United States presidential election in Mississippi[20]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin724,59756.17%6
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden554,66243.00%0
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez4,0110.31%0
ConstitutionChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle2,5510.20%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root2,5290.20%0
GreenCynthia McKinneyRosa Clemente1,0340.08%0
ReformTed WeillFrank McEnulty4810.04%0
Write-insWrite-ins740.01%0
Totals1,289,939100.00%6
Voter turnout (Voting age population)61.2%

By county

[edit]
CountyJohn McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams6,56641.83%9,02157.47%1090.70%-2,455-15.64%15,696
Alcorn10,80571.17%4,13027.20%2471.63%6,67543.97%15,182
Amite4,24555.49%3,34843.76%570.75%89711.73%7,650
Attala5,27357.42%3,84941.91%610.67%1,42415.51%9,183
Benton2,32950.22%2,22748.02%821.78%1022.20%4,638
Bolivar4,89131.80%10,33467.19%1561.01%-5,443-35.39%15,381
Calhoun4,46763.51%2,52235.85%450.64%1,94527.66%7,034
Carroll3,90265.41%2,03734.15%260.44%1,86531.26%5,965
Chickasaw4,39548.52%4,58850.65%750.82%-193-2.13%9,058
Choctaw2,62463.57%1,45935.34%451.09%1,16528.23%4,128
Claiborne74813.72%4,68285.86%230.42%-3,934-72.14%5,453
Clarke5,22962.27%3,12137.17%470.56%2,10825.10%8,397
Clay4,46640.26%6,55859.12%680.62%-2,092-18.86%11,092
Coahoma2,91727.60%7,59771.89%540.51%-4,680-44.29%10,568
Copiah6,70146.21%7,71053.17%910.62%-1,009-6.96%14,502
Covington5,52358.38%3,85240.71%860.91%1,67117.67%9,461
DeSoto44,22268.75%19,62730.51%4740.74%24,59538.24%64,323
Forrest15,29656.27%11,62242.75%2660.98%3,67413.52%27,184
Franklin2,90962.09%1,73336.99%430.92%1,17625.10%4,685
George7,70082.49%1,53216.41%1031.30%6,16866.08%9,335
Greene4,36175.33%1,36623.60%621.07%2,99551.73%5,789
Grenada6,23455.07%5,02944.42%580.51%1,20510.65%11,321
Hancock13,02076.34%3,76822.09%2681.57%9,25254.25%17,056
Harrison38,75762.55%22,67336.59%5270.86%16,08425.96%61,957
Hinds32,94930.26%75,40169.24%5520.50%-42,452-38.98%108,902
Holmes1,71417.96%7,76581.37%640.67%-6,051-63.41%9,543
Humphreys1,46228.52%3,63470.89%300.59%-2,172-42.37%5,126
Issaquena36438.32%57960.95%70.73%-215-22.63%950
Itawamba7,66377.01%2,08420.94%2042.05%5,57956.07%9,951
Jackson35,99366.29%17,78132.75%5220.96%18,21233.54%54,296
Jasper4,13544.90%5,02554.56%500.54%-890-9.66%9,210
Jefferson55112.30%3,88386.71%440.89%-3,332-74.41%4,478
Jefferson Davis2,87138.96%4,45460.43%450.61%-1,583-21.47%7,370
Jones20,15768.86%8,84630.22%2700.92%11,31138.64%29,273
Kemper1,93537.05%3,25662.34%320.61%-1,321-25.29%5,223
Lafayette10,27855.68%7,99743.32%1851.00%2,28112.36%18,460
Lamar18,49777.36%5,15921.58%2541.06%13,33855.78%23,910
Lauderdale19,58259.14%13,33240.26%2000.60%6,25018.88%33,114
Lawrence4,36962.33%2,58736.91%530.76%1,78225.42%7,009
Leake5,14855.01%4,15144.35%600.64%99710.66%9,359
Lee22,69464.91%12,02134.39%2450.70%10,67330.52%34,960
Leflore4,10531.38%8,91468.14%620.48%-4,809-36.76%13,081
Lincoln10,78165.73%5,50533.56%1160.71%5,27632.17%16,402
Lowndes13,99450.95%13,20948.09%2620.96%7852.86%27,465
Madison27,20357.55%19,83141.95%2350.50%7,37215.60%47,269
Marion8,51365.43%4,42233.99%750.58%4,09131.44%13,010
Marshall6,68340.56%9,68558.78%1100.66%-3,002-18.22%16,478
Monroe10,18458.21%7,16940.98%1430.81%3,01517.23%17,496
Montgomery3,07153.76%2,60945.68%320.56%4628.08%5,712
Neshoba8,20972.00%3,11427.31%790.69%5,09544.69%11,402
Newton6,57966.76%3,21832.65%580.59%3,36134.11%9,855
Noxubee1,52523.14%5,03076.34%340.52%-3,505-53.20%6,589
Oktibbeha9,32049.60%9,32649.63%1460.77%-6-0.03%18,792
Panola7,62046.42%8,69052.94%1060.64%-1,070-6.52%16,416
Pearl River17,88179.67%4,32019.25%2421.08%13,56160.42%22,443
Perry4,06771.80%1,53327.07%641.13%2,53444.73%5,664
Pike8,65147.91%9,27651.38%1280.71%-625-3.47%18,055
Pontotoc9,72775.59%2,98223.17%1591.24%6,74552.42%12,868
Prentiss7,70370.39%3,02027.60%2212.01%4,68342.79%10,944
Quitman1,33432.01%2,80367.25%310.74%-1,469-35.24%4,168
Rankin48,14076.20%14,37222.75%6651.05%33,76853.45%63,177
Scott6,58456.41%5,02543.06%620.53%1,55913.35%11,671
Sharkey87331.23%1,90768.23%150.54%-1,034-37.00%2,795
Simpson7,64160.59%4,81738.20%1521.21%2,82422.39%12,610
Smith6,26575.44%1,96823.70%720.86%4,29751.74%8,305
Stone5,14971.06%1,99627.55%1011.39%3,15343.51%7,246
Sunflower3,24528.99%7,83870.03%1100.98%-4,593-41.04%11,193
Tallahatchie2,78640.13%4,10559.12%520.75%-1,319-18.99%6,943
Tate7,67860.09%5,00339.15%970.76%2,67520.94%12,778
Tippah6,93771.33%2,62326.97%1651.70%4,31444.36%9,725
Tishomingo6,24974.22%1,96223.30%2082.48%4,28750.92%8,419
Tunica1,01723.48%3,27975.69%360.83%-2,262-52.21%4,332
Union9,07274.39%2,98524.48%1381.13%6,08749.91%12,195
Walthall4,25354.67%3,45644.42%710.91%79710.25%7,780
Warren11,15251.24%10,48948.19%1230.57%6633.05%21,764
Washington6,34732.41%13,14867.14%880.45%-6,801-34.73%19,583
Wayne6,07060.57%3,89038.81%620.62%2,18021.76%10,022
Webster4,07274.62%1,34924.72%360.66%2,72349.90%5,457
Wilkinson1,56030.36%3,53468.77%450.87%-1,974-38.41%5,139
Winston5,49753.78%4,65345.52%710.70%8448.26%10,221
Yalobusha3,62853.15%3,15146.16%470.69%4776.99%6,826
Yazoo5,29046.09%6,11653.29%710.62%-826-7.20%11,477
Totals724,59756.17%554,66243.00%10,6800.83%169,93513.17%1,289,939
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

John McCain carried three of the state's four congressional districts, including two districts held by Democrats.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
1st61.28%37.74%Travis Childers
2nd33.57%65.86%Bennie Thompson
3rd61.08%38.17%Chip Pickering (110th Congress)
Gregg Harper (111th Congress)
4th67.27%31.76%Gene Taylor

Electors

[edit]
Main article:List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Mississippi cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Mississippi is allocated 6 electors because it has 4congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[21] An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as afaithless elector.

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged toJohn McCain andSarah Palin:[22]

  1. Jim Barksdale
  2. Barry Bridgforth
  3. Fred Carl
  4. Bobby Chain
  5. Charles Doty
  6. Victor Mavar

References

[edit]
  1. ^"D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  2. ^"Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived fromthe original on May 5, 2015. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  3. ^"Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived fromthe original on April 22, 2009. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  4. ^"Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily".electoral-vote.com. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  5. ^abcdBased on Takeaway
  6. ^"POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com".www.politico.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  7. ^"RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived fromthe original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^"CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008".CQ Politics. Archived fromthe original on June 14, 2009. RetrievedDecember 20, 2009.
  9. ^Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008)."The Electoral Map: Key States".The New York Times. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  10. ^"October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs".CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived fromthe original on June 19, 2010. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  11. ^"Winning The Electoral College".Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^"roadto270".hosted.ap.org. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  13. ^"Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports".www.rasmussenreports.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  14. ^Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. ^"Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived fromthe original on March 24, 2009. RetrievedAugust 19, 2009.
  16. ^"Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  17. ^"Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  18. ^ab"CNN Election 2004". CNN. RetrievedApril 6, 2009.
  19. ^"Reform Party of the United States of America".reformpa.web.aplus.net. Archived fromthe original on August 1, 2008. RetrievedJune 6, 2022.
  20. ^"Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". RetrievedJanuary 13, 2013.
  21. ^"Electoral College".California Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original on October 30, 2008. RetrievedNovember 1, 2008.
  22. ^"Presidential Electors"(PDF).Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on November 20, 2020.
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