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2008 United States presidential election in Michigan

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in Michigan

← 2004
November 4, 2008
2012 →
Turnout66.2%Increase[1]
 
NomineeBarack ObamaJohn McCain
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateIllinoisArizona
Running mateJoe BidenSarah Palin
Electoral vote170
Popular vote2,872,5792,048,639
Percentage57.33%40.89%

County results
Congressional district results
Municipality results

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

McCain

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Tie

  

Elections in Michigan
U.S. President
Presidential Primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Other localities

The2008 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 4, 2008. It was part of the2008 United States presidential election which happened throughout all 50 states andD.C. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.

Michigan was won by Democratic nomineeBarack Obama by a 16.4% margin of victory. Due to the worsening of the state's economy, and an extremely highunemployment rate and anti-incumbent backlash in the state following theGreat Recession, Democrats were heavily favored to win the state. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safeblue state. Michigan had leaned Democratic for the last couple decades, as it voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since1992.

In the end, Obama won Michigan by a larger-than-expected margin of victory, winning by 823,940 votes. As of2024, this is the last election that a Democrat wonAlger,Alpena,Arenac,Benzie,Berrien,Cass,Clare,Clinton,Delta,Gladwin,Iosco,Iron,Jackson,Lenawee,Mason,Menominee,Oceana,Ogemaw,Ontonagon,Presque Isle,Roscommon,St. Clair, andSchoolcraft counties.Kent andLeelenau counties wouldn’t vote for a Democrat again until 2020.

Primaries

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report[2]Likely D
Cook Political Report[3]Lean D
The Takeaway[4]Solid D
Electoral-vote.com[5]Solid D
Washington Post[6]Solid D
Politico[7]Solid D
RealClearPolitics[8]Solid D
FiveThirtyEight[6]Solid D
CQ Politics[9]Solid D
The New York Times[10]Solid D
CNN[11]Safe D
NPR[6]Solid D
MSNBC[6]Solid D
Fox News[12]Likely D
Associated Press[13]Likely D
Rasmussen Reports[14]Safe D

Polling

[edit]
Main article:Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Michigan

Very early on, polling was tight as Obama was having a difficult time getting support from the pessimistic state. Since September 21, Obama swept all the polls taken from the state. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 54% to 40%.[15]

Fundraising

[edit]

John McCain raised a total of $4,330,872 in the state. Barack Obama raised $7,299,275.[16]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Obama and his interest groups spent $12,995,614. McCain and his interest group spent $13,332,086.[17] The Democratic ticket visited the state 10 times to McCain's 9 times.[18]

Analysis

[edit]

Michigan had not supported a Republican for president since1988, and would not do so again until 2016. However, the state's 17 electoral votes had been continually a prime target for Republicans, and the Democratic margin of victory incrementally decreased from1996 to2004. In 2008, Republican presidential nomineeJohn McCain put an early effort into winning Michigan, hoping to convertblue-collar voters disaffected by Obama's unfamiliarity as a liberal African-American fromChicago.Macomb County, a populous blue-collar suburb ofDetroit, was a large target.

A major problem for the Obama campaign was the2008 Michigan Democratic presidential primary. Obama removed his name from the ballot after state officials moved up the primary in violation of party rules. As a result,Hillary Rodham Clinton won the state with 55%. This led to the McCain campaign focusing heavily on winning Michigan in the general election. In May 2008, McCain was leading in aRasmussen poll with 45% to 44%.[19] After the September financial crisis, however, McCain's general campaign fell into trouble. Polls showed Michigan, a state especially affected by the economy, turning away from McCain. Voters blamed Republicans for the crisis. In early October, with polls showing him falling further behind Obama, McCain pulled out of the state, essentially ceding it to Obama.[20] This was widely publicized, and more than likely contributed to Obama's landslide victory.

On Election Day, Barack Obama won by a double-digit margin of 16%. The state was called for Obama almost as soon as the polls closed. InWayne County, home to Detroit, Obama piled up a 3–1 margin. Democratic strongholdsWashtenaw County (home toAnn Arbor and theUniversity of Michigan),Ingham County (home toLansing andMichigan State) andGenesee County (home toFlint) gave Obama 65-70% of the vote. Macomb County, which McCain had focused so intensely on, voted Democratic by a comfortable margin of 9%.Oakland County, once a bastion of suburban conservatism, went for Obama by 15 points. Obama also carriedKent County (home toGrand Rapids and former PresidentGerald Ford) by a very narrow 0.5% margin of victory, or 1,573 votes, the first time that a Democrat had done so since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. He was also the first Democrat to carry Berrien, Clinton, Eaton, Jackson, and Leelanau counties since 1964.

Republican support in the state collapsed; McCain was only able to win two counties with margins of more than 10,000 votes.[21] This result signified continued evidence of Michigan's Democratic tilt, anchored by the heavily Democratic cities of Detroit, Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Flint. Barack Obama won 46Michigan counties compared to 37 for John McCain. The largest county with a very close winning margin was a 49.3% vs. 48.8% plurality for Obama inKent County.[22] As of the2024 presidential election[update], this is the last presidential election in whichAlger County,Alpena County,Arenac County,Benzie County,Berrien County,Cass County,Clare County,Clinton County,Delta County,Gladwin County,Gratiot County,Iosco County,Iron County,Jackson County,Lenawee County,Mason County,Menominee County,Oceana County,Ogemaw County,Ontonagon County,Presque Isle County,Roscommon County,Schoolcraft County, andSt. Clair County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is also the last presidential election in which the Democratic candidate won theUpper Peninsula, or a majority of congressional districts in the state.

At the same time as Obama swept the state, Democrats made more gains in Michigan. Incumbent DemocraticU.S. SenatorCarl Levin was reelected with 62.65% of the vote over RepublicanJack Hoogendyk's 33.84%. Democrats also picked up twoU.S. House seats in Michigan inthe 7th District andthe 9th District, withMark Schauer andGary Peters knocking offTim Walberg andJoe Knollenberg, respectively. This gave Democrats the majority in Michigan's U.S. House delegation. In addition, Democrats picked up nine seats in theMichigan House of Representatives.

Results

[edit]
2008 United States presidential election in Michigan
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden2,872,57957.33%17
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin2,048,63940.89%0
Natural LawRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez33,0850.66%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root23,7160.47%0
ConstitutionChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle14,6850.29%0
GreenCynthia McKinneyRosa Clemente8,8920.18%0
Write-InsWrite-Ins1700.00%0
Totals5,010,129100.00%17
Voter turnout (Voting age population)66.9%

By county

[edit]
CountyBarack Obama
Democratic
John McCain
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Alcona2,89645.11%3,40453.02%1201.87%-508-7.91%6,420
Alger2,47252.04%2,18846.06%901.89%2845.98%4,750
Allegan24,16543.63%30,06154.28%1,1542.09%-5,896-10.65%55,380
Alpena7,70550.95%7,12547.11%2941.94%5803.84%15,124
Antrim6,07943.89%7,50654.19%2671.93%-1,427-10.30%13,852
Arenac4,15551.12%3,80746.84%1662.04%3484.28%8,128
Baraga1,72547.22%1,84650.53%822.25%-121-3.31%3,653
Barry13,44943.91%16,43153.65%7492.44%-2,982-9.74%30,629
Bay32,58956.59%23,79541.32%1,2042.09%8,79415.27%57,588
Benzie5,45152.88%4,68745.47%1711.66%7647.41%10,309
Berrien40,38151.88%36,13046.42%1,3231.70%4,2515.46%77,834
Branch8,41346.01%9,53452.14%3381.85%-1,121-6.13%18,285
Calhoun34,56153.84%28,55344.48%1,0821.69%6,0089.36%64,196
Cass12,08351.25%11,11447.14%3791.61%9694.11%23,576
Charlevoix6,81747.35%7,30650.74%2751.91%-489-3.39%14,398
Cheboygan6,72048.34%6,92049.78%2611.88%-200-1.44%13,901
Chippewa8,18448.98%8,26749.48%2571.54%-83-0.50%16,708
Clare7,49651.32%6,79346.51%3162.17%7034.81%14,605
Clinton20,00549.54%19,72648.85%6501.61%2790.69%40,381
Crawford3,44147.94%3,56149.61%1762.45%-120-1.67%7,178
Delta9,97452.32%8,76345.97%3271.72%1,2116.35%19,064
Dickinson5,99545.04%7,04952.96%2672.00%-1,054-7.92%13,311
Eaton30,74253.36%25,90044.95%9741.69%4,8428.41%57,616
Emmet8,51546.92%9,31451.32%3201.76%-799-4.40%18,149
Genesee143,92765.27%72,45132.86%4,1171.87%71,47632.41%220,495
Gladwin6,59049.77%6,39148.27%2601.96%1991.50%13,241
Gogebic4,75757.44%3,33040.21%1942.35%1,42717.23%8,281
Grand Traverse23,25847.62%24,71650.60%8691.78%-1,458-2.98%48,843
Gratiot9,10551.33%8,32246.92%3111.75%7834.41%17,738
Hillsdale8,76542.86%11,22154.87%4632.27%-2,456-12.01%20,449
Houghton7,47646.81%8,10150.72%3952.47%-625-3.91%15,972
Huron8,36748.83%8,43449.22%3341.95%-67-0.39%17,135
Ingham93,99465.72%46,48332.50%2,5491.78%47,51133.22%143,026
Ionia12,56545.93%14,15651.74%6382.33%-1,591-5.81%27,359
Iosco7,30951.38%6,58346.28%3332.34%7265.10%14,225
Iron3,08049.98%2,94747.83%1352.19%1332.15%6,162
Isabella16,67958.71%11,22039.49%5111.80%5,45919.22%28,410
Jackson37,48050.19%35,69247.79%1,5072.02%1,7882.40%74,679
Kalamazoo77,05158.79%51,55439.34%2,4561.87%25,49719.45%131,061
Kalkaska3,78044.48%4,52753.27%1922.25%-747-8.79%8,499
Kent149,90949.34%148,33648.83%5,5541.83%1,5730.51%303,799
Keweenaw61043.26%75653.62%443.12%-146-10.36%1,410
Lake2,91955.16%2,26942.88%1041.98%65012.28%5,292
Lapeer21,45747.30%22,83150.33%1,0742.37%-1,374-3.03%45,362
Leelanau7,35550.85%6,93847.97%1711.18%4172.88%14,464
Lenawee24,64051.48%22,22546.43%1,0002.09%2,4155.05%47,865
Livingston42,34942.39%55,59255.64%1,9651.97%-13,243-13.25%99,906
Luce1,19143.47%1,49054.38%592.15%-299-10.91%2,740
Mackinac3,02747.23%3,26850.99%1141.78%-241-3.76%6,409
Macomb223,78453.26%187,66344.66%8,7292.08%36,1218.60%420,176
Manistee7,23555.62%5,51042.36%2642.02%1,72513.26%13,009
Marquette19,63559.03%12,90638.80%7192.17%6,72920.23%33,260
Mason7,81751.29%7,14746.89%2771.82%6704.40%15,241
Mecosta9,10148.68%9,23849.41%3581.91%-137-0.73%18,697
Menominee5,98154.02%4,85543.85%2362.13%1,12610.17%11,072
Midland20,70147.26%22,26350.83%8341.91%-1,562-3.57%43,798
Missaukee2,89838.68%4,46959.65%1251.67%-1,571-20.97%7,492
Monroe39,18051.13%35,85846.79%1,5932.08%3,3224.34%76,631
Montcalm13,20848.75%13,29149.05%5972.20%-83-0.30%27,096
Montmorency2,40344.83%2,84153.00%1162.17%-438-8.17%5,360
Muskegon53,82163.73%29,14534.51%1,4901.76%24,67629.22%84,456
Newaygo10,79046.52%11,86251.14%5442.34%-1,072-4.62%23,196
Oakland372,56656.42%276,95641.94%10,8731.64%95,61014.48%660,395
Oceana6,40551.20%5,86046.85%2441.95%5454.35%12,509
Ogemaw5,39149.93%5,13347.54%2742.53%2582.39%10,798
Ontonagon1,96650.60%1,82346.92%962.48%1433.68%3,885
Osceola4,85544.03%5,97354.17%1981.80%-1,118-10.14%11,026
Oscoda1,88743.42%2,32053.38%1393.18%-433-9.96%4,346
Otsego5,63444.55%6,75253.39%2612.06%-1,118-8.84%12,647
Ottawa50,82837.23%83,33061.03%2,3811.74%-32,502-23.80%136,539
Presque Isle3,72249.55%3,60648.01%1832.44%1161.54%7,511
Roscommon7,08250.24%6,72747.72%2872.04%3552.52%14,096
Saginaw60,27657.80%42,22540.49%1,7821.71%18,05117.31%104,283
St. Clair40,67750.28%38,53647.63%1,6872.09%2,1412.65%80,900
St. Joseph12,32247.81%12,88650.00%5632.19%-564-2.19%25,771
Sanilac9,04744.86%10,67952.95%4432.19%-1,632-8.09%20,169
Schoolcraft2,18450.38%2,05847.47%931.95%1262.91%4,335
Shiawassee19,39753.27%16,26844.67%7502.06%3,1298.60%36,415
Tuscola13,50348.48%13,74049.33%6112.19%-237-0.85%27,854
Van Buren18,58853.47%15,53444.68%6441.85%3,0548.79%34,766
Washtenaw130,57869.62%53,94628.76%3,0241.62%76,63240.86%187,548
Wayne660,08574.02%219,58224.62%12,0641.36%440,50349.40%891,731
Wexford7,37946.88%8,04451.10%3182.02%-665-4.22%15,741
Totals2,872,57957.33%2,048,63940.89%89,3881.78%823,94016.44%5,010,606
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Barack Obama carried 12 of the 15 congressional districts, including four held by Republicans.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
1st48.11%49.93%Bart Stupak
2nd50.85%47.50%Peter Hoekstra
3rd49.43%48.84%Vern Ehlers
4th48.19%50.09%Dave Camp
5th34.71%63.67%Dale Kildee
6th44.18%54.12%Fred Upton
7th46.50%51.73%Tim Walberg (110th Congress)
Mark Schauer (111th Congress)
8th45.72%52.58%Mike Rogers
9th42.83%55.79%Joe Knollenberg (110th Congress)
Gary Peters (111th Congress)
10th49.85%48.23%Candice Miller
11th44.56%53.78%Thaddeus McCotter
12th33.23%65.05%Sander Levin
13th14.47%84.71%Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
14th13.45%85.77%John Conyers Jr.
15th32.48%65.80%John Dingell

Electors

[edit]
Main article:List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[23] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged to Obama and Biden:

  1. Brenda Abbey
  2. Dallas Dean
  3. Ida DeHaas
  4. Ron Gettelfinger
  5. James Hoffa
  6. Kenneth Paul Jenkins
  7. Harry Kalogerakos
  8. Jessica Mistak
  9. Arturo Reyes
  10. Griffin Rivers
  11. Gary Shepherd
  12. Roger Short
  13. Arthur Shy
  14. Richard West
  15. Whitney Randall Wolcott
  16. David Woodward
  17. Charlene Yarbrough

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics".
  2. ^"D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  3. ^"Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived fromthe original on May 5, 2015. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  4. ^"Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived fromthe original on April 22, 2009. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  5. ^"Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily".electoral-vote.com. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  6. ^abcdBased on Takeaway
  7. ^"POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com".www.politico.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  8. ^"RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived fromthe original on June 5, 2008.
  9. ^"CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008".CQ Politics. Archived fromthe original on June 14, 2009. RetrievedDecember 20, 2009.
  10. ^Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008)."The Electoral Map: Key States".The New York Times. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  11. ^"October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs".CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived fromthe original on June 19, 2010. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  12. ^"Winning The Electoral College".Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  13. ^"roadto270".hosted.ap.org. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  14. ^"Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports".www.rasmussenreports.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  15. ^Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  16. ^"Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived fromthe original on March 24, 2009. RetrievedAugust 19, 2009.
  17. ^"Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  18. ^"Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  19. ^"Rasmussen Reports: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Site". Archived fromthe original on February 27, 2009. RetrievedMay 30, 2009.
  20. ^"McCain pulling out of Michigan - Yahoo! News". RetrievedDecember 20, 2008.
  21. ^"Election Results 2008".The New York Times. Archived fromthe original on November 3, 2004. RetrievedApril 5, 2009.
  22. ^Dave Leip."2008 Presidential General Election Data Graphs - Michigan".Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. RetrievedSeptember 2, 2016.
  23. ^"Electoral College".California Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original on October 30, 2008. RetrievedNovember 1, 2008.
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