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2008 United States presidential election in Alabama

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in Alabama

← 2004November 4, 20082012 →
 
NomineeJohn McCainBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateArizonaIllinois
Running mateSarah PalinJoe Biden
Electoral vote90
Popular vote1,266,546813,479
Percentage60.32%38.74%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

McCain

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Obama

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in Alabama
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The2008 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors, to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.

Alabama was won by Republican nomineeJohn McCain by a 21.58% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or a safered state. Located in the Deep South, Alabama is one of the mostconservative states in the country. Republicans have won every presidential election in Alabama since1980, and the 2008 election was no exception. McCain carried 54 of the state's 67counties and easily prevailed in Alabama.

Despite McCain's expected victory, Obama did manage to improve on Kerry's performance by two points and was able to reduce his margin of defeat by four points which is attributed to the higher African-American turnout. In addition, Obama's raw vote total was the highest obtained by a Democrat in the state of Alabama until his running mate, Biden, broke his record 12 years later in a historically high turnout election. Obama also managed to flipJefferson County, the state's most populous county and home toBirmingham, which had not gone Democratic since1952 and was won by incumbent SenatorJeff Sessions inthe concurrent U.S. Senate election.Marengo County also split tickets for Obama and Sessions.

Primaries

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

SourceRanking
D.C. Political Report[1]Likely R
Cook Political Report[2]Solid R
The Takeaway[3]Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[4]Solid R
Washington Post[5]Solid R
Politico[6]Solid R
RealClearPolitics[7]Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[5]Solid R
CQ Politics[8]Solid R
The New York Times[9]Solid R
CNN[10]Safe R
NPR[5]Solid R
MSNBC[5]Solid R
Fox News[11]Likely R
Associated Press[12]Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[13]Safe R

Polling

[edit]
Main article:Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Alabama

Opinion polls taken in Alabama prior to the election consistently showed John McCain to be leading Barack Obama by double digits.RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 56.8% for McCain, compared to 33.5% for Obama.[14] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.

Fundraising

[edit]

John McCain raised a total of $1,846,574 in the state. Barack Obama raised $1,734,629.[15]

Advertising and visits

[edit]

Obama spent almost $264,945. McCain and his interest groups spent just $850.[16] Barack Obama, made at least one stop in the state, a brief visit to the Heritage Club for a Democratic Fundraiser in Huntsville, AL[17]

Analysis

[edit]

Alabama is one of the mostconservative states in the country and one of the most reliablyRepublican strongholds inpresidential elections. Alabama is located in the lowerBible Belt, where many people are values voters who tend to oppose social issues likeabortion,gay rights, andimmigration. Like mostSouthern states,Alabama was a one-party state dominated by conservativeDemocrats for the better part of a century after Reconstruction. However, it swung dramatically to the Republicans in1964 in opposition tocivil rights legislation. Since then, Democrats have carried the state only once, whenJimmy Carter of neighboringGeorgia swept most of theSouth andEast Coast. Although Democrats still nominally have a majority of registered voters, the Democrats have only seriously contested the state two other times sinceBarry Goldwater carried it in 1964;1976 (a double-digit victory) and1980. As in much of theDeep South,Alabama Democrats began splitting their tickets as early as the 1940s when the national party became more receptive toward theCivil Rights Movement, and the rise of thereligious right in the 1970s only accelerated this trend.

At the time of the election, Alabama had a Republican Governor (Bob Riley), two Republicans in theU.S. Senate (Richard Shelby andJeff Sessions), and five of its seven seats in theU.S. House of Representatives were held by Republicans.

On November 4, 2008, Democratic presidential nomineeBarack Obama predictably lost by a landslide. However, he performed 2% better in 2008 thanJohn Kerry did in2004 (both by popular vote and by the number of carried counties). In large part, this can be attributed to high turnout ofAfrican American voters in Alabama. Notably, Obama carriedJefferson County, which contains the state's largest city ofBirmingham,[18] which last supported the official Democratic candidate for president in1956. Strangely, many news organizations did not project the state's outcome immediately after the polls closed, possibly due to a waveringAfrican American turnout.

Voting inAlabama, like in other states of theDeep South, was heavily polarized by race. According to exit polls, 98% of black Alabamians voted Democratic while 88% of white Alabamians voted Republican.[19] Obama's 12 percent showing among white Alabamians was easily his worst in the nation, and prevented him from having any realistic chance of carrying the state.[20] Ultimately, McCain won by running up massive landslides in the state's suburban areas; severalBirmingham,Montgomery andMobile suburbs gave McCain over 70 percent of the vote. The old-lineDixiecrats in these areas began splitting their tickets as early as the 1940s; apart from Carter, some of these areas haven't supported a Democrat for president sinceAdlai Stevenson II in 1952.

Racial polarization was why Obama generally improved on Kerry's performance inCentral Alabama, where more African Americans live. Conversely, Obama did much worse than Kerry inNorth Alabama, where fewer blacks live. Racial polarization was also responsible forAlabama's electoral geography: Obama, like other Democrats, won landslides in theBlack Belt while losing badly everywhere else. With 60.32% of the popular vote,Alabama proved to be McCain's fifth strongest state in the 2008 election afterOklahoma,Wyoming,Utah andIdaho.[21]

Results

[edit]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin1,266,54660.32%9
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden813,47938.74%0
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez6,7880.32%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root4,9910.24%0
ConstitutionChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle4,3100.21%0
Write-in candidates3,7050.18%0
Totals2,099,819100.00%9
[22]

By county

[edit]
CountyJohn McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Autauga17,40373.61%6,09325.77%1450.61%11,31047.84%23,641
Baldwin61,27175.26%19,38623.81%7560.93%41,88551.45%81,413
Barbour5,86650.44%5,69748.99%670.58%1691.45%11,630
Bibb6,26272.44%2,29926.60%830.96%3,96345.84%8,644
Blount20,38984.02%3,52214.51%3561.46%16,86769.51%24,267
Bullock1,39125.69%4,01174.07%130.24%-2,620-48.38%5,415
Butler5,48556.49%4,18843.14%360.37%1,29713.35%9,709
Calhoun32,34865.69%16,33433.17%5601.14%16,01432.52%49,242
Chambers8,06753.94%6,79945.46%900.60%1,2688.48%14,956
Cherokee7,29874.89%2,30623.66%1411.44%4,99251.23%9,745
Chilton13,96078.49%3,67420.66%1510.85%10,28657.83%17,785
Choctaw4,22353.50%3,63646.06%350.44%5877.44%7,894
Clarke7,46655.57%5,91444.02%550.41%1,55211.55%13,435
Clay4,98473.09%1,76025.81%751.10%3,22447.28%6,819
Cleburne5,21680.35%1,16817.99%1081.66%4,04862.36%6,492
Coffee14,91974.12%5,07925.23%1300.65%9,84048.89%20,128
Colbert14,73959.33%9,70339.06%4011.61%5,03620.27%24,843
Conecuh3,47049.98%3,42949.39%440.63%410.59%6,943
Coosa3,24858.39%2,27340.86%420.76%97517.53%5,563
Covington12,44478.82%3,24020.52%1030.65%9,20458.30%15,787
Crenshaw4,31968.65%1,93830.81%340.54%2,38137.84%6,291
Cullman28,89681.85%5,86416.61%5451.53%23,03265.24%35,305
Dale13,88671.87%5,27027.28%1640.85%8,61644.59%19,320
Dallas6,79832.60%13,98667.07%680.33%-7,188-34.47%20,852
DeKalb17,95774.77%5,65823.56%4001.67%12,29951.21%24,015
Elmore25,77775.12%8,30124.19%2370.69%17,47650.93%34,315
Escambia9,37563.89%5,18835.36%1110.76%4,18728.53%14,674
Etowah30,59568.39%13,49730.17%6451.44%17,09838.22%44,737
Fayette5,88373.93%1,99425.06%801.01%3,88948.87%7,957
Franklin8,04868.83%3,46929.67%1761.51%4,57939.16%11,693
Geneva9,41780.78%2,13418.31%1060.90%7,28362.47%11,657
Greene87616.51%4,40883.09%210.40%-3,532-66.58%5,305
Hale3,20038.96%4,98260.65%320.39%-1,782-21.69%8,214
Henry5,58564.58%3,01834.90%450.52%2,56729.68%8,648
Houston29,25470.09%12,22529.29%2560.61%17,02940.80%41,735
Jackson14,08367.47%6,37430.54%4171.99%7,70936.93%20,874
Jefferson149,92147.07%166,12152.15%2,4820.78%-16,200-5.08%318,524
Lamar5,41976.59%1,61422.81%420.60%3,80553.78%7,075
Lauderdale24,06863.16%13,32934.98%7071.86%10,73928.18%38,104
Lawrence9,27763.19%5,16435.18%2391.63%4,11328.01%14,680
Lee32,23059.33%21,49839.57%5971.09%10,73219.76%54,325
Limestone23,59870.33%9,53628.42%4171.24%14,06241.91%33,551
Lowndes1,80924.86%5,44974.87%200.27%-3,640-50.01%7,278
Macon1,39612.83%9,45086.88%310.29%-8,054-74.05%10,877
Madison86,96556.88%64,11741.93%1,8171.19%22,84814.95%152,899
Marengo5,51648.09%5,92651.66%290.29%-410-3.57%11,471
Marion9,53677.18%2,60021.04%2191.78%6,93656.14%12,355
Marshall25,72777.57%7,03821.22%4011.21%18,68956.35%33,166
Mobile98,04954.04%82,18145.30%1,1940.66%15,8688.74%181,424
Monroe6,17554.88%5,02544.66%520.46%1,15010.22%11,252
Montgomery42,03140.13%62,16659.35%5460.52%-20,135-19.22%104,743
Morgan36,01471.26%13,89527.49%6331.26%22,11943.77%50,542
Perry1,67927.26%4,45772.37%230.37%-2,778-45.11%6,159
Pickens5,43453.98%4,59445.63%390.39%8408.35%10,067
Pike8,00457.36%5,87942.13%720.52%2,12515.23%13,955
Randolph7,17569.10%3,06429.51%1451.39%4,11139.59%10,384
Russell8,70546.02%10,08553.32%1250.66%-1,380-7.30%18,915
Shelby69,06076.19%20,62522.75%9581.06%48,43553.44%90,643
St. Clair27,64981.11%6,09117.87%3481.02%21,55863.24%34,088
Sumter1,73124.66%5,26474.99%250.36%-3,533-50.33%7,020
Talladega20,11258.80%13,77940.28%3130.92%6,33318.52%34,204
Tallapoosa13,11667.92%6,06331.40%1320.68%7,05336.52%19,311
Tuscaloosa45,40557.54%32,79641.56%7110.90%12,60915.98%78,912
Walker20,72272.32%7,42025.90%5101.78%13,30246.42%28,652
Washington5,65464.43%3,06734.95%540.61%2,58729.48%8,775
Wilcox1,86828.77%4,61271.02%140.22%-2,744-42.25%6,494
Winston8,10380.78%1,75717.52%1711.71%6,34663.26%10,031
Totals1,266,54660.32%813,47938.74%19,7940.94%453,06721.58%2,099,819
County Flips:
Democratic
  Hold
  Gain from Republican
Republican
  Hold
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Republican John McCain carried six of the state's seven congressional districts, including two districts that were carried by Democrats.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
1st61.01%38.38%Jo Bonner
2nd63.42%36.05%Terry Everett (110th Congress)
Bobby Bright (111th Congress)
3rd56.21%43.04%Mike D. Rogers
4th76.32%22.48%Robert Aderholt
5th60.91%37.99%Bud Cramer (110th Congress)
Parker Griffith (111th Congress)
6th75.91%23.28%Spencer Bachus
7th27.28%72.36%Artur Davis
[23]

Electors

[edit]
Main article:List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Alabama cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Alabama is allocated 9 electors because it has 7congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.

The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged toJohn McCain andSarah Palin.[25]

  1. Les Barnett
  2. Will Sellers
  3. Al Blythe
  4. Jack Stiefel
  5. Elbert Peters
  6. Matthew Fridy
  7. Bob Cusanelli
  8. Cam Ward
  9. Jim Wilson

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^"D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived fromthe original on January 1, 2009. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  2. ^"Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived fromthe original on May 5, 2015. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  3. ^"Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived fromthe original on April 22, 2009. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  4. ^"Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily".electoral-vote.com. RetrievedAugust 23, 2021.
  5. ^abcdBased on Takeaway
  6. ^"POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com".www.politico.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  7. ^"RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived fromthe original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^"CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008".CQ Politics. Archived fromthe original on June 14, 2009. RetrievedDecember 20, 2009.
  9. ^Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008)."The Electoral Map: Key States".The New York Times. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  10. ^"October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs".CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived fromthe original on June 19, 2010. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  11. ^"Winning The Electoral College".Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^"roadto270".hosted.ap.org. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  13. ^"Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports".www.rasmussenreports.com. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2016.
  14. ^"Alabama: McCain vs. Obama".RealClearPolitics. RetrievedMay 31, 2009.
  15. ^"Presidential Campaign Finance: AL Contributions to All Candidates by 3 digit Zip Code".Federal Election Commission. Archived fromthe original on March 24, 2009. RetrievedMay 30, 2009.
  16. ^"Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  17. ^"Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com".CNN. RetrievedMay 26, 2010.
  18. ^"AL US President Race". Our Campaigns. RetrievedMay 27, 2009.
  19. ^"Alabama-Election Results 2008".New York Times. RetrievedJune 10, 2009.
  20. ^Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon.How Barack Obama Won.New York City:Vintage, 2009.
  21. ^"2008 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. RetrievedMarch 5, 2018.
  22. ^"Certified General Election Results without write-in appendix"(PDF).Secretary of State of Alabama. November 25, 2008. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on November 27, 2008. RetrievedDecember 5, 2008.
  23. ^"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. December 15, 2008. RetrievedMay 31, 2009.
  24. ^"Electoral College".California Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original on October 30, 2008. RetrievedNovember 1, 2008.
  25. ^"Archived copy"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on November 19, 2008. RetrievedNovember 7, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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