Presidential election results map.Blue denotes states won by Obama/Biden andred denotes those won by McCain/Palin. Numbers indicateelectoral votes cast by each state and theDistrict of Columbia.
Incumbent Republican presidentGeorge W. Bush was ineligible to pursue a third term due to theterm limits established by theTwenty-second Amendment; this was the first election since1952 in which neither the incumbent president nor vice president was on the ballot, and the first since1928 in which neither ran for the nomination. McCain secured theRepublican nomination by March 2008, defeating his main challengersMitt Romney andMike Huckabee, and selected Palin as his running mate. TheDemocratic primaries were marked by a sharp contest between Obama and the initial front-runner, former first lady and SenatorHillary Clinton, as well as other challengers who dropped out before most of the primaries were held, including SenatorsJohn Edwards andJoe Biden. Clinton's victory in theNew Hampshire primary made her the first woman to win a major party's presidential primary.[a] After a long primary season, Obama narrowly secured the Democratic nomination in June 2008 and selected Biden as his running mate.
Bush's popularity had significantly declined during his second term, which was attributed to the growing disdain for theIraq War, hisresponse to Hurricane Katrina, theAbu Ghraib torture controversy, and the2008 financial crisis. McCain opted to distance himself from Bush and did not campaign with him, nor did Bush appear in person at the2008 Republican National Convention, although he did endorse McCain. Obama strongly opposed the Iraq War, as well as atroop surge that had begun in 2007, while McCain supported the war. Obama campaigned on the theme that "Washington must change", while McCain emphasized his experience. McCain's decision to suspend his campaign during the height of the financial crisis backfired as voters viewed his response as erratic.[5]
As of 2025[update], this is the most recent time a Democrat carried Indiana and North Carolina in a presidential election and the most recent time a Democrat won the male vote in a presidential election.
Article Two of the United States Constitution says that thePresident andVice President of the United States must benatural-born citizens of the United States, at least 35 years old, and residents of the United States for at least 14 years. Candidates for president typically seek the nomination of a political party, in which case each party devises a method (such as aprimary election) to choose a candidate for the position. Traditionally, the primaries areindirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of theElectoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the president and vice president. PresidentGeorge W. Bush, aRepublican and formerGovernor of Texas, was ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to theTwenty-second Amendment; in accordance with Section1 of theTwentieth Amendment, his term expired at noonEastern Standard Time on January 20, 2009.
Edwards was one of the first to formally announce his candidacy for the presidency, on December 28, 2006. This run would be his second attempt at the presidency.[9] Clinton announced intentions to run in the Democratic primaries on January 20, 2007.[10] Obama announced his candidacy on February 10 in his home state of Illinois.[11]
Early primaries and caucuses
Early in the year, the support for Barack Obama started to increase in the polls and he passed Clinton for the top spot in Iowa; he ended up winning the caucus in that state, with Edwards coming in second and Clinton in third.[12] Obama's win was fueled mostly by first time caucus-goers andIndependents and showed voters viewed him as the "candidate of change".[12] Iowa has since been viewed as the state that jump-started Obama's campaign and set him on track to win both the nomination and the presidency.[13] After the Iowa caucus, Biden and Connecticut SenatorChris Dodd withdrew from the nomination contest.[12]
Obama became the new front runner in New Hampshire, when his poll numbers skyrocketed after his Iowa victory.[14] The Clinton campaign was struggling after a huge loss in Iowa and no strategy beyond the early primaries and caucuses. According toThe Vancouver Sun, campaign strategists had "mapped a victory scenario that envisioned the former first lady wrapping up the Democratic presidential nomination by Super Tuesday on Feb. 5."[15] In what is considered a turning point for her campaign, Clinton had a strong performance at theSaint Anselm College,ABC, andFacebook debates several days before theNew Hampshire primary as well as an emotional interview in a public broadcast live on TV.[16] Clinton won that primary by 2% of the vote, contrary to the predictions of pollsters who consistently had her trailing Obama for a few days up to the primary date.[14] Clinton's win was the first time a woman had ever won a major American party's presidential primary for the purposes of delegate selection.[17]
On January 30, 2008, after placing in third in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, Edwards announced that he was suspending his campaign for the presidency, but he did not initially endorse any remaining candidates.[18][19]
Super Tuesday
Voting sign in Utah
Super Tuesday was February 5, 2008, when the largest-ever number of simultaneous stateprimary elections was held.[20] Super Tuesday ended up leaving the Democrats in a virtual tie, with Obama amassing 847 delegates to Clinton's 834 from the 23 states that held Democratic primaries.[21]
California was one of the Super Tuesday states that could provide a large number of delegates to the candidates. Obama trailed in the California polling by an average of 6.0% before the primary; he ended up losing that state by 8.3% of the vote.[22] Some analysts cited a largeLatino turnout that voted for Clinton as the deciding factor.[23]
TheLouisiana,Nebraska,Hawaii,Wisconsin,U.S. Virgin Islands, the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia primaries and theWashington and Maine caucuses all took place after Super Tuesday in February. Obama won all of them, giving him 10 consecutive victories after Super Tuesday.[24][25]
Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania
On March 4, Hillary Clinton carriedOhio andRhode Island in the Democratic primaries; some considered these wins, especially Ohio, a "surprise upset" by 10%,[26][27] although she did lead in the polling averages in both states.[22][28] She also carried theprimary in Texas, but Obama won the Texas caucuses held the same day and netted more delegates from the state than Clinton.[29]
Only one state held a primary in April. This wasPennsylvania, on April 22. Although Obama made a strong effort to win Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton won that primary by nearly 10%, with approximately 55% of the vote.[30] Obama had outspent Clinton three to one in Pennsylvania, but his comment at a San Francisco fundraiser that small-town Americans "cling" to guns and religion drew sharp criticism from the Clinton campaign and may have hurt his chances in the Keystone State.[31] In addition, Clinton had several advantages in Pennsylvania. Throughout the primary process, she relied on the support of older, white, working class voters. Pennsylvania held a closed primary, which means that only registered Democrats could vote, and, according to Ron Elving ofNPR, the established Democratic electorate "was older, whiter, more Catholic and more working-class than in most of the primaries to date."[32] After Pennsylvania, Obama had a higher number of delegates and popular votes than Clinton did and was still in a stronger position to win the nomination. Clinton, however, had received the endorsement of more superdelegates than Obama.[30]
Indiana and North Carolina
On May 6,North Carolina andIndiana held their Democratic presidential primaries. Clinton and Obama campaigned aggressively there before the voting took place. Polling had shown Obama a few points ahead in North Carolina and Clinton similarly leading in Indiana.[33][34] In the actual results, Obama outperformed the polls by several points in both states, winning by a significant margin in North Carolina[35] and losing by only 1.1% in Indiana (50.56% to 49.44%).[36] After these primaries, most pundits declared that it had become "increasingly improbable," if not impossible, for Clinton to win the nomination.[37] The small win in Indiana barely kept her campaign alive for the next month.[38] Although she did manage to win the majority of the remaining primaries and delegates, it was not enough to overcome Obama's substantial delegate lead.
Florida and Michigan
During late 2007, the two parties adopted rules against states' moving their primaries to an earlier date in the year. For the Republicans, the penalty for this violation was supposed to be the loss of half the state party's delegates to the convention. The Democratic penalty was the complete exclusion from the national convention of delegates from states that broke these rules. The Democratic Party allowed only four states to hold elections before February 5, 2008. Clinton won a majority of delegates and popular votes from both states (though 40% voted uncommitted in Michigan) and subsequently led a fight to seat all the Florida and Michigan delegates.[39]
There was some speculation that the fight over the delegates could last until the convention in August. On May 31, 2008, the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic Party reached a compromise on the Florida and Michigan delegate situation. The committee decided to seat delegates from Michigan and Florida at the convention in August, but to only award each a half-vote.[40]
Clinching the nomination
2008 DNC during Stevie Wonder's performance
The major political party nomination process (technically) continues through June of an election year. In previous cycles, the candidates were effectively chosen by the end of the primaries held in March, but, in this cycle, Barack Obama did not win enough delegates to secure the nomination until June 3, after a 17-month campaign against Hillary Clinton. He had a wide lead in states won, while Clinton had won majorities in several of the larger states. Now, because a form ofproportional representation and popular vote decided Democratic state delegate contests, numbers were close between Clinton and Obama.[41] By May, Clinton claimed to hold a lead in the popular vote, but theAssociated Press found that her numbers were "accurate only" in one close scenario.[42]
In June, after the last of the primaries had taken place, Obama secured the Democratic nomination for president, with the help of multiple super delegate endorsements (most of the super delegates had refused to declare their support for either candidate until the primaries were completed).[43] He was the first African American to win the nomination of a major political party in the United States.[44] For several days, Clinton refused to concede the race, although she signaled her presidential campaign was ending in a post-primary speech on June 3 in her home state of New York.[45] She finally conceded the nomination to Obama on June 7. She pledged her full support to the presumptive nominee and vowed to do everything she could to help him get elected.[46]
Not only was the 2008 election the first time since1952 that neither theincumbent president nor the incumbent vice president was a candidate in the general election, but it was also the first time since the1928 election that neither sought his party's nomination for president; as Bush was term-limited from seeking another nomination, the unique aspect was Vice President Cheney's decision not to seek the Republican nomination.[47][48] The 2008 election was also the third presidential election since1896 in which neither the incumbent president, the incumbent vice president, nor a current or former member of the incumbent president'sCabinet won the nomination of either major party the others being1920 and1952.[49] With no members of the Bush administration emerging as major contenders for the Republican nomination, the Republican race was as open as the Democratic race.
Immediately after the 2006 midterm elections, media pundits began speculating, as they did about the Democrats, about potential Republican candidates for president in 2008.[7] In November 2006, former New York City MayorRudolph Giuliani led in the polls, followed closely by Arizona SenatorJohn McCain.[50] The media speculated that Giuliani'spro-choice stance onabortion and McCain's age and support of the unpopularIraq War would be detriments to their candidacies.[7] Giuliani remained the frontrunner in the polls throughout most of 2007, with McCain and formerTennessee SenatorFred Thompson fighting for second place.[51]Arkansas GovernorMike Huckabee, Giuliani, formerMassachusetts governorMitt Romney, andTexas RepresentativeRon Paul announced their candidacies on January 28, February 5, February 13, and March 12, respectively.[52][53][54][55] McCain officially announced his candidacy on March 1, 2007, after several informal announcements.[56] In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP (Republican) fundraisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, andRon Paul.[57] MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani andJohn McCain the front runners after the second Republican presidential debate in early 2007.[58]
Early primaries/caucuses
Huckabee, winner of Iowa, had little to no money and hoped for at least a third-place finish in New Hampshire. McCain eventually displaced Rudy Giuliani and Romney as the front runner inNew Hampshire. McCain staged a turnaround victory,[59] having been written off by the pundits and polling in single digits less than a month before the race.[60]
With the Republicans stripping Michigan and Florida of half their delegates for moving their primaries into January 2008 against party rules, the race for the nomination was based there. McCain meanwhile managed a small victory over Huckabee inSouth Carolina,[61] setting him up for a larger and more important victory over Romney inFlorida, which held a closed primary on January 29.[62] By this time, after several scandals, no success in the early primaries, and a third-place finish in Florida, Giuliani conceded the nomination and endorsed John McCain the next day.[63]
Super Tuesday
McCain was also endorsed in February byCalifornia GovernorArnold Schwarzenegger before theCalifornia primary took place on Super Tuesday. This gave him a significant boost in the polls for the state's primary,[64] which awarded the greatest number of delegates of all the states. On Super Tuesday, McCain won his home state of Arizona, taking all 53 delegates. He also won nearly all of California's 173 delegates, the largest of the Super Tuesday prizes. McCain also scored wins in seven other states, picking up 574 delegates.[65] Huckabee was the "surprise performer", winning 5 states and 218 delegates.[65] Romney won 7 states and 231 delegates.[65] Two days later, Romney suspended his presidential campaign, saying that if he stayed in the race, he would "forestall the launch of a national campaign and be making it easier for Senator Clinton or Obama to win".[66] His departure left Huckabee and Paul as McCain's only major challengers in the remaining primaries and caucuses. Romney endorsed McCain on February 14.[67]
Louisiana, theDistrict of Columbia,Kansas,Wisconsin, andWashington held primaries in February after Super Tuesday. Despite McCain picking up big victories, Huckabee won Louisiana and Kansas. McCain narrowly carried the Washington caucuses over Huckabee and Paul, who amassed a large showing.[25] TheVirgin Islands andPuerto Rico closed February for the Republicans. After Super Tuesday, John McCain had become the clear front runner, but by the end of February, he still had not acquired enough delegates to secure the nomination. In March, John McCain clinched the Republican nomination after sweeping all four primaries,Texas,Ohio,Vermont, andRhode Island, putting him over the top of the 1,191 delegates required to win the GOP nomination.[28] Mike Huckabee then conceded the race to McCain, leaving Ron Paul, who had just 16 delegates, as his only remaining opponent.[68] Romney would eventually become the Republican presidential nominee4 years later, which he then lost toBarack Obama.
Along with the Democratic and Republican parties, three other parties nominated candidates with ballot access in enough states to win the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. These were theConstitution Party, theGreen Party, and theLibertarian Party. In addition, independent candidateRalph Nader ran his own campaign.
The Green Party nominated former Democratic representativeCynthia McKinney from Georgia for president, and political activistRosa Clemente from New York for vice president. McKinney campaigned on a platform that supportedsingle-payer universal health care, the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, reparations for African Americans, and the creation of a Department of Peace.[72]
The Libertarian Party nominated former Republican representativeBob Barr from Georgia for president, and his former rival for the Libertarian nominationWayne Allyn Root from Nevada, for vice president. During the 2008 presidential campaign, Barr advocated a reworking or abolition of theincome tax[73] and opposed the war in Iraq[74] and thePatriot Act.[75]
Until the onset of the2008 financial crisis, the unpopularIraq War was a key issue during the campaign. John McCain supported the war while Barack Obama opposed it (Obama's early and strong opposition to the war helped him stand out against the other Democratic candidates during the primaries, as well as stand out to a war-weary electorate during the general campaign). Though McCain meant it as a peacetime presence like the United States maintained in Germany and Japan afterWorld War II,[76] his statement that the United States could be in Iraq for as much as the next 50 to 100 years would prove costly. Obama used it against him as part of his strategy to tie him to the unpopular President Bush.
John McCain's support for the troop 'surge' employed by GeneralDavid Petraeus, which was one of several factors credited with improving the security situation in Iraq, may have boosted McCain's stance on the issue in voters' minds. McCain (who supported the invasion) argued that his support for the successful surge showed his superior judgment. However, Obama was quick to remind voters that there would have been no need for a "surge" had there been no war at all, thus questioning McCain's judgment.
Bush's unpopularity
George W. Bush had become increasingly unpopular among Americans by late 2005 due in part by the growing unpopularity of theIraq War domestically and internationally, as well as Bush's handling of the2008 financial crisis andHurricane Katrina in 2005. By the time Obama was elected asPresident of the United States on November 4, 2008, Bush's approval rating was in the low to mid 20s and his disapproval grew increasingly significant, being in the high 60s, and even low 70s in some polls.[77] Polls consistently showed that his approval ratings among American voters had averaged around 30 percent.[78][79][80] In March 2008, Bush endorsed McCain at the White House,[81] but did not make a single appearance for McCain during the campaign. Bush appeared at the 2008 GOP convention only through a live video broadcast. He chose not to appear in person due to disaster events in the Gulf of Mexico in the aftermath ofHurricane Gustav. Although he supported the war in Iraq, McCain made an effort to show that he had disagreed with Bush on many other key issues such as climate change. During the entire general election campaign, Obama countered by pointing out in ads and at numerous campaign rallies that McCain had claimed in an interview that he voted with Bush 90% of the time, and congressional voting records supported this for the years Bush was in office.[82]
Similar to SenatorBob Dole's1996 presidential campaign, one of the more widely leveled charges against McCain was the issue of his age—he turned 72 in August and there was widespread concern about the idea of electing a man who would be 80 years old if he completed two full terms in office (the oldest president,Ronald Reagan, had been a month shy of 78 when he left office in January 1989).[83][84] In addition, McCain suffered from the ill effects of his captivity in North Vietnam and reportedly had difficulty lifting his arms above his head. His age in particular was considered a liability against the youthful Senator Obama, who was nearly twenty-five years his junior.[85] McCain, by comparison, was born before World War II and belonged to theSilent Generation.[86] Much like Bob Dole, McCain attempted to counter these charges by releasing all of his medical records, something Obama did not do. McCain's wife Cindy dismissed concerns about his health by arguing that "We went hiking theGrand Canyon last summer and [John] did great and had no trouble keeping up with us." McCain also appeared at several campaign stops with his still-active 95-year-old mother. In a speech on the House floor, Pennsylvania CongressmanJohn Murtha criticized McCain's age by saying "Seven presidents have come and gone since I've been in Congress, and I saw the toll the job took on each one of them." If elected, McCain would have been the first president born in the 1930s. McCain ultimately died in 2018,[87] just one year after the completion of Obama's second term.
Like theClinton campaign in 1996, Obama avoided discussing McCain's age directly, instead preferring to simply call his ideas and message "old" and "old hat". He also made a strong appeal to youth voters and back during his primary contest with Hillary Clinton, had stated "When I watched the feud between the Clintons and [Newt Gingrich] unfold during the 1990s, I was reminded of old quarrels started on college campuses long ago. It's time for a new generation to take over." Obama's active use of a Blackberry and other modern technology also stood in contrast to the Arizona Senator's admission that he was an infrequent user of email and the internet.[88] McCain's service in Vietnam, while marketable to baby boomers, was referred to as "unimportant" to younger voters.
Obama campaigning as a symbol of change inCleveland, Ohio with a "Change We Need" sign
Obama promised "universal health care, full employment, a green America, and an America respected instead of feared by its enemies".[89]
Polls regularly found the general electorate as a whole divided more evenly between 'change' and 'experience' as candidate qualities than the Democratic primary electorate, which split in favor of 'change' by a nearly 2–1 margin.[90] Advantages for McCain and Obama on experience and the ability to bring change, respectively, remained steady through the November 4 election. However, final pre-election polling found that voters considered Obama's inexperience less of an impediment than McCain's association with sitting president George W. Bush,[91] an association which was rhetorically framed by the Obama campaign throughout the election season as "more of the same".
McCain appeared to undercut his line of attack by picking first-term Alaska governorSarah Palin to be his running mate.[92] Palin had been governor only since 2006, and before that had been a council member and mayor ofWasilla. The choice of Palin was controversial; however, it appeared to solve two pressing concerns—McCain's age and health (since a youthful vice president would succeed him to office if he died or became incapacitated) and appealing to right-wing conservatives, a group that had been comparatively unmoved by McCain. Palin also came off as more down-to-earth and relatable to average Americans than McCain, widely criticized as a "Beltway insider".[93] However, media interviews suggested that Palin lacked knowledge on certain key issues, and they cast doubt among many voters about her qualifications to be vice president or president. In this regard, her inexperience was also a liability when McCain's age and health were factored in—there was a higher-than-normal probability of Palin succeeding to the presidency. "One 72-year-old heartbeat away from the presidency" became a popular anti-GOP slogan.[94] She also came under attack on everything from her 17-year-old daughter giving birth to a child out of wedlock to actively participating in hunting moose and other animals.[95] Because of Palin's conservative views, there was also concern that she would alienate independents and moderates, two groups that pundits observed McCain would need to win the election.[96]
Economy
Polls taken in the last few months of the presidential campaign and exit polls conducted on Election Day showed the economy as the top concern for voters.[97][98] In the fall of 2008, many news sources were reporting that the economy was suffering its most serious downturn since theGreat Depression.[99] During this period, John McCain's election prospects fell with several politically costly comments about the economy.
On August 20, John McCain said in an interview withPolitico that he was uncertain how many houses he and his wife, Cindy, owned; "I think—I'll have my staff get to you," he told the media outlet.[100] Both on the stump and in Obama's political ad, "Seven", the gaffe was used to portray McCain as somebody unable to relate to the concerns of ordinary Americans. This out-of-touch image was further cultivated when, on September 15, the day of theLehman Brothers bankruptcy, at a morning rally inJacksonville, Florida, McCain declared that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong," despite what he described as "tremendous turmoil in our financial markets and Wall Street."[101] With the perception among voters to the contrary, the comment appeared to cost McCain politically.
On September 24, 2008, after the onset of the2008 financial crisis, McCain announced that he was suspending his campaign to return to Washington so he could help craft a $700 billion bailout package for the troubled financial industry, and he stated that he would not debate Obama until Congress passed the bailout bill.[102] Despite this decision, McCain was portrayed as somebody not playing a significant role in the negotiations for the first version of the bill, which fell short of passage in the House. He eventually decided to attend the first presidential debate on September 26, despite Congress' lack of immediate action on the bill. His ineffectiveness in the negotiations and his reversal in decision to attend the debates were seized upon to portray McCain as erratic in his response to the economy. Days later, a second version of the original bailout bill was passed by both the House and Senate, with Obama, his vice presidential running mateJoe Biden, and McCain all voting for the measure (Hillary Clinton would as well).[103]
All the aforementioned remarks and campaign issues hurt McCain's standing with voters. All these also occurred after the onset of the2008 financial crisis and after McCain's poll numbers had started to fall. Although sound bites of all of these "missteps" were played repeatedly on national television, many pundits and analysts say that the actual financial crisis and economic conditions caused McCain's large drop in support in mid-September and severely damaged his campaign.[104][105]
Health care
John McCain's proposals focused on open-market competition rather than government funding or control. At the heart of his plan were tax credits – $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families who do not subscribe to or do not have access to health care through their employer. To help people who are denied coverage by insurance companies due to pre-existing conditions, McCain proposed working with states to create what he calls a "Guaranteed Access Plan".[106]
Barack Obama called foruniversal health care. His health care plan proposed creating a National Health Insurance Exchange that would include both private insurance plans and a Medicare-like government run option. Coverage would be guaranteed regardless of health status, and premiums would not vary based on health status either. It would have required parents to cover their children, but did not require adults to buy insurance.
Critics of McCain's plan argued that it would not significantly reduce the number of uninsured Americans, would increase costs, reduce consumer protections and lead to less generous benefit packages.[107] Critics of Obama's plan argued that it would increase federal regulation of private health insurance without addressing the underlying incentives behind rising health care spending.[108][109]Mark Pauly suggested that a combination of the two approaches would work better than either one alone.[110]
A poll released in early November 2008 found that voters supporting Obama listed health care as their second priority; voters supporting McCain listed it as fourth, tied with the war in Iraq. Affordability was the primary health care priority among both sets of voters. Obama voters were more likely than McCain voters to believe government can do much about health care costs.[111]
The United States presidential election of 2008 was sponsored by theCommission on Presidential Debates (CPD), abipartisan organization that sponsored four debates that occurred at various locations around the United States (U.S.) in September and October 2008. Three of the debates involved the presidential nominees, and one involved the vice-presidential nominees.
Debates among candidates for the 2008 U.S. presidential election
Another debate was sponsored by theColumbia University political union and took place there on October 19. All candidates who could theoretically win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election were invited, andRalph Nader,Cynthia McKinney, andChuck Baldwin agreed to attend.Amy Goodman, principal host ofDemocracy Now!, moderated. It was broadcast on cable byC-SPAN and on the Internet by Break-the-Matrix.[115]
The reported cost of campaigning for president has increased significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democratic and Republican campaigns were added together (for the presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions), the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004).[116] In January 2007, Federal Election Commission ChairmanMichael E. Toner estimated that the 2008 race would be a $1 billion election, and that to be taken seriously, a candidate would have needed to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.[117]
Expense summary
According to required campaign filings as reported by theFederal Election Commission (FEC), 148 candidates for all parties collectively raised $1,644,712,232 and spent $1,601,104,696 for the primary and general campaigns combined through November 24, 2008. The amounts raised and spent by the major candidates, according to the same source, were as follows:
That one: McCain's reference to Obama during the 2nd debate.
Lipstick on a pig: Obama used this phrase to insinuate that any changes that McCain was advocating from the policies ofGeorge W. Bush would only be slight modifications of Bush's policies but the underlying policies would be the same, and in Obama's opinion, bad. Some called it sexist, claiming it was a reference to Sarah Palin, who cracked a joke during theRepublican convention that the only difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull is lipstick.[119]
Electoral College forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
"tossup": no advantage
"tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
"lean" or "leans": slight advantage
"likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
On December 16, 2007, Ron Paulcollected $6 million, more money on a single day through Internet donations than any presidential candidate in US history.[125][126][127]
Promotion
The 2008 election was the first time that a majority of the voting-age population preferred to get their news from theInternet.[128] Not only did the Internet allow candidates to raise money, but also it gave them a tool to appeal to newer and younger demographics. Political pundits were now evaluating candidates based on their social media following.Senator Barack Obama's victory is credited to his competitive edge in social media and Internet following. Obama had over 2 million American supporters onFacebook and 100,000 followers onTwitter, while McCain attracted only 600,000 Facebook supporters (likes) and 4,600 followers on Twitter. Obama's YouTube channel held 115,000 subscribers and more than 97 million video views. Obama had maintained a similar advantage over Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.[129]
Obama's edge in social media was crucial to the election outcome. According to a study by the Pew Internet and American Life project, 35 percent of Americans relied on online video for election news. Ten percent of Americans used social networking sites to learn about the election.[130] The 2008 election showed huge increases in Internet use.
Another study done after the election gave a lot of insight on young voters. Thirty-seven percent of Americans ages 18–24 got election news from social networking sites. Almost a quarter of Americans saw something about the election in an online video.[131] YouTube and other online video outlets allowed candidates to advertise in ways like never before. The Republican Party in particular was criticized for not adequately using social media and other means to reach young voters.
Anonymous and semi-anonymoussmear campaigns, traditionally done with fliers andpush calling, also spread to the Internet.[132] Organizations specializing in the production and distribution ofviral material, such asBrave New Films, emerged; such organizations have been said to be having a growing influence on American politics.[133]
Controversies
Voter suppression allegations
Allegations of voter list purges using unlawful criteria caused controversy in at least sixswing states:Colorado,Indiana,Ohio,Michigan,Nevada andNorth Carolina.[134] On October 5, 2008, theRepublican Lt. Governor of Montana,John Bohlinger, accused the Montana Republican Party of vote caging to purge 6,000 voters from three counties which trend Democratic.[135] Allegations arose in Michigan that the Republican Party planned to challenge the eligibility of voters based on lists of foreclosed homes.[136] The campaign ofDemocratic presidential nomineeBarack Obama filed a lawsuit challenging this. TheHouse Judiciary Committee wrote to theDepartment of Justice requesting an investigation.[137]
Libertarian candidateBob Barr filed a lawsuit inTexas to have Obama and McCain removed from the ballot in that state.[138] His campaign alleged that both of the candidates had missed the August 26 deadline to file and had been included on the ballot in violation of Texas election law. Neither Obama nor McCain had been confirmed as the candidate of their respective parties at the time of the deadline. TheTexas Supreme Court dismissed the lawsuit without explanation.[139]
InOhio, identified by both parties as a key state, allegations surfaced from both Republicans and Democrats that individuals from out of state were moving to the state temporarily and attempting to vote despite not meeting the state's requirement of permanent residency for more than 29 days. The Franklin County Board of Elections referred 55 cases of possible voting irregularities to the local prosecutor.[140] Three groups attracted particular notice: 'Vote from Home,' 'Vote Today Ohio,' and 'Drop Everything and Come to Ohio.' Vote from Home attracted the most attention when thirteen of the group's members moved to the same location in eastern Columbus. Members of the group organized byMarc Gustafson, including severalMarshall andRhodes scholars studying atOxford University, settled with Franklin County Prosecutor Ron O'Brien to have their challenged ballots withdrawn.[141][142] The Obama campaign and others alleged that members of the McCain campaign had also voted without properly establishing residency.[140] Since 1953, only six people in Ohio have gone to prison for illegal voting.[143]
Media bias
Republicans and independents leveled significant criticism at media outlets' coverage of the presidential election season. An October 22, 2008Pew Research Center poll estimated 70% of registered voters believed journalists wanted Barack Obama to win the election, as opposed to 9% for John McCain.[144] Another Pew survey, conducted after the election, found that 67% of voters thought that the press fairly covered Obama, versus 30% who viewed the coverage as unfair. Regarding McCain, 53% of voters viewed his press coverage as fair versus 44% who characterized it as unfair. Among affiliated Democrats, 83% believed the press fairly covered Obama; just 22% of Republicans thought the press was fair to McCain.[145]
At the February debate,Tim Russert ofNBC News was criticized for what some perceived as disproportionately tough questioning of Democratic presidential contenderHillary Clinton.[146] Among the questions, Russert had asked Clinton, but not Obama, to provide the name of the newRussian President (Dmitry Medvedev).[146] This was later parodied onSaturday Night Live. In October 2007,liberal commentators accused Russert of harassing Clinton over the issue of supporting drivers' licenses forillegal immigrants.[147]
On April 16,ABC News hosted a debate inPhiladelphia, Pennsylvania. ModeratorsCharles Gibson andGeorge Stephanopoulos were criticized by viewers,bloggers and media critics for the poor quality of their questions.[146][147] Many viewers said they considered some of the questions irrelevant when measured against the importance of the faltering economy or theIraq War. Included in that category were continued questions about Obama's former pastor, Senator Hillary Clinton's assertion that she had to duck sniper fire inBosnia more than a decade ago, and Senator Obama's not wearing an American flag pin.[146] The moderators focused on campaign gaffes and some believed they focused too much on Obama.[147] Stephanopoulos defended their performance, saying "Senator Obama was the front-runner" and the questions were "not inappropriate or irrelevant at all."[146][147]
In anop-ed published on April 27, 2008, inThe New York Times,Elizabeth Edwards wrote that the media covered much more of "the rancor of the campaign" and "amount of money spent" than "the candidates' priorities, policies and principles."[148] AuthorErica Jong commented that "our press has become a sea of triviality, meanness and irrelevant chatter."[149] A Gallup poll released on May 29, 2008, also estimated that more Americans felt the media was being harder on Hillary Clinton than they were towards Barack Obama.Time magazine columnistMark Halperin stated that the media during the 2008 election had a "blind, almost slavish" worship of Obama.[150]
Election Day was on November 4, 2008. The majority of states allowed early voting, with all states allowing some form of absentee voting.[154] Voters cast votes for listed presidential candidates but were actually selecting representatives for their state'sElectoral College slate.
CNN andFox News called Virginia for Obama shortly before 11:00 pm, leaving him only 50 electoral votes shy of victory with only sixWest Coast states (California,Oregon,Washington,Idaho,Alaska, andHawaii) still voting. All American networks called the election in favor of Obama at 11:00 pm as the polls closed on the West Coast. Obama was immediately declared the winner in California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii, McCain won Idaho, and the Electoral College totals were updated to 297 for Obama and 146 for McCain (270 are needed to win). McCain gave a concession speech half an hour later in his hometown ofPhoenix, Arizona.[156] Obama appeared just before midnight Eastern Time inGrant Park,Chicago, in front of a crowd of 250,000 people to deliver hisvictory speech.[157]
Cartogram of the Electoral Votes for 2008 United States presidential election, each square representing one electoral vote. The map shows the impact of winningswing states. Nebraska, being one of two states that are not winner-take-all, for the first time had its votes split, with itssecond congressional district voting for Obama.
Later on election night, after Obama was named the winner, he picked up several more wins in swing states in which the polls had shown a close race. These includedFlorida,Indiana,Virginia, and the western states ofColorado andNevada. All of these states had been carried by Bush in2004.North Carolina and thebellwether state ofMissouri remained undecided for several days. Eventually Obama was declared the winner in North Carolina and McCain in Missouri, with Obama pulling out a rare win inNebraska's 2nd congressional district. This put the projected electoral vote count at 365 for Obama and 173 for McCain. Obama's victories in the populous swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia contributed to his decisive win. The presidential electors cast their ballots for president and vice president, and Congress tallied these votes on January 8, 2009.[160]
Turnout
Thevoter turnout for this election was broadly predicted to be high by American standards,[161][162] and a record number of votes were cast.[163] The final tally of total votes counted was 131.3 million, compared to 122.3 million in 2004 (which also boasted the highest record since1968, the last presidential election before thevoting age was lowered to 18). Expressed as a percentage of eligible voters, 131.2 million votes could reflect a turnout as high as 63.0% of eligible voters, which would be the highest since1960.[164][165] This 63.0% turnout rate is based on an estimated eligible voter population of 208,323,000.[165] Another estimate puts the eligible voter population at 213,313,508, resulting in a turnout rate of 61.6%, which would be the highest turnout rate since 1968.[166][167]
Broken down by age group, voters under 35 voted for Obama by a large majority with McCain most popular among voters over 60. Voters between 35 and 59 were nearly split 50/50 between the two candidates.
American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate released a report on November 6, 2008, two days after the election, which concluded that the anticipated increase in turnout had failed to materialize.[164] That report was the basis for some news articles that indicated voter turnout failed to meet expectations.[168][169] When the remaining votes were counted after the release of the report, the total number of votes cast in the presidential election was raised to 131.2 million, which surpassed the American University report's preliminary estimate of 126.5 to 128.5 million voters by a factor of between 2% and 4%.
The election saw increased participation fromAfrican Americans, who made up 13.0% of the electorate, versus 11.1% in 2004.[170] According to exit polls, over 95% of African Americans voted for Obama. This played a critical role in Southern states such as North Carolina. 74% of North Carolina's registered African American voters turned out, as opposed to 69% of North Carolinians in general, with Obama carrying 100% (with rounding) of African-American females and African Americans age 18 to 29, according to exit polling.[171] This was also the case in Virginia, where much higher turnout among African Americans propelled Obama to victory in the former Republican stronghold.[172] Even in southern states in which Obama was unsuccessful, such as Georgia and Mississippi, due to large African American turnout he was much more competitive than John Kerry in 2004.[173][174]
No other candidate had ballot access in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. All six candidates appeared on the ballot for a majority of the voters, while the 17 other listed candidates were available to no more than 30% of the voters.[176]
The following candidates and parties had ballot listing or write-in status in more than one state:[177]
Alan Keyes (America's Independent Party) received 47,746 votes; listed in three states: Colorado and Florida, plus California (listed as American Independent), and also had write-in status in Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, and Utah.
Ron Paul received 42,426 votes; listed in Louisiana (Louisiana Taxpayers) and in Montana (Constitution), with write-in status in California.
Gloria La Riva (Party for Socialism and Liberation) received 6,808 votes[178] nationally; listed in 12 states: Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Brian Moore (Socialist Party, seeBrian Moore presidential campaign, 2008) received 6,538 votes; listed in eight states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and Tennessee (independent) and Vermont (Liberty Union). He also filed for write-in status in 17 other states: Alaska, Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming.
Róger Calero (Socialist Workers Party) received 5,151 votes; listed in ten states. He was listed by name in Delaware, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont. James Harris was listed as his stand-in in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, and Washington, and also had write-in status in California.
Charles Jay (Boston Tea Party) received 2,422 votes; listed in Colorado and Florida, and in Tennessee (as independent), with write-in status in Arizona, Montana, and Utah.
In Nevada, 6,267 votes were cast for "None of These Candidates".[179] In the three states that officially keep track of "blank" votes for president, 103,193 votes were recorded as "blank".[180] More than 100,000 write-in votes were cast and recorded for a scattering of other candidates, including 62 votes for "Santa Claus" (in ten states) and 11 votes for "Mickey Mouse" (in five states).[181]
According to the Federal Election Commission, an unusually high number of "miscellaneous" write-ins were cast for president in 2008, including 112,597 tallied in the 17 states that record votes for non-listed candidates.[182] There were more presidential candidates on the ballot than at any other time in U. S. history, except for the1992 election, which also had 23 candidates listed in at least one state.
Results
Of the 3,154 counties/districts/independent cities making returns, McCain won the most popular votes in 2,270 (71.97%) while Obama carried 884 (28.03%).
Popular vote totals are from the official Federal Election Commission report.[2] The results of the electoral vote were certified by Congress on January 8, 2009.[160]
The following table records the official vote tallies for each state for those presidential candidates who were listed on ballots in enough states to have a theoretical chance for a majority in the Electoral College. State popular vote results are from the official Federal Election Commission report.[2] The column labeled "Margin" shows Obama's margin of victory over McCain (the margin is negative for states and districts won by McCain).
Note: Maine and Nebraska each allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates. In both states, two electoral votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide race and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner of each congressional district.[183][184]
States and EV districts that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Results by state withpie charts for the electoral college and popular vote. Note that the depicted split in Nebraska's electoral votes denotes the one electoral vote won by Obama inNebraska's second congressional district and is not representative of the district's actual geographical boundaries.
Cartogram of the electoral vote results, with each square representing one electoral vote
Results by county,[c] shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.
Results by county flips from 2004 to the 2008 presidential election[c]
Change in vote margins at the county level from the 2004 election to the 2008 election.[c] Obama made dramatic gains in every region of the country except for Arizona (McCain's home state), Alaska (Palin's home state), Appalachia, and the inner South, where McCain improved over Bush.
Presidential popular votes by county as a scale from red/Republican to blue/Democratic.
Cartogram of popular vote with each county rescaled in proportion to its population. Deeper blue represents a Democratic majority; brighter red represents a Republican majority.[185]
Results by congressional districts, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.
Close states
States/districts in the 2008 United States presidential election in which the margin of victory was less than 5%. Blue states/districts went for Obama, red for McCain. Yellow states were won by either candidate by 5% or more. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and Iowa were won by Bush in 2004 but were won by Obama by a margin of more than 5% in 2008.
Reddenotes states (or congressional districts that contribute an electoral vote) won by Republican John McCain;blue denotes those won by Democrat Barack Obama.
States where the margin of victory was under 1% (26 electoral votes; 15 won by Obama, 11 by McCain):
Source: Exit polls conducted by Edison Research ofSomerville, New Jersey, for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News.[187]
Analysis
Obama, having awhite mother andKenyan father of theLuo ethnic group,[188] became the firstAfrican American as well as the firstbiracial president.[189] Several black people had previously run for president, includingShirley Chisholm,Jesse Jackson,Lenora Fulani,Carol Moseley Braun,Alan Keyes, andAl Sharpton, though Obama was the first one ever to win the nomination of a major party, let alone the general election.[190] The Obama-Biden ticket was also the first winning ticket in American history in which neither candidate was a white Protestant, as Biden isRoman Catholic and the first Roman Catholic to be elected vice president; all previous tickets with Catholic vice presidential candidates had been defeated (1964,1972,1984).[191] The Obama-Biden ticket was the first winning ticket consisting of two sitting senators since1960 (John F. Kennedy/Lyndon B. Johnson) (in the previous election cycle (2004) Democrats alsonominated two sitting senators,John Kerry ofMassachusetts andJohn Edwards ofNorth Carolina, but they lost to incumbents Bush and Cheney), and Obama became the first Northern Democratic president since Kennedy. Also, Obama became the first Democratic candidate to win a majority of the popular vote sinceJimmy Carter in1976, the first to win a majority of both votes and states since Lyndon Johnson in1964, and the first Northern Democrat to win a majority of both votes and states since Franklin Roosevelt in1944. Obama became the first Northern Democrat to win any state in the former Confederacy since Hubert Humphrey won Texas in 1968. This was the first presidential election since 1952 in which neither of the major-party nominees was the incumbent president or vice-president. This is the only election where both major party nominees were Senators.
Swing by state. States are listed by (increasing) percentage of Democratic votes, showing how the share of the vote changed between2004 and 2008. Excluding the candidates' home states, only five states trended more Republican: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia.
Prior to the election, commentators discussed whether Obama would be able to redraw the electoral map by winning states that had been voting for Republican candidates in recent decades.[192] In many ways, he was successful. He won every region of the country by double digits except theSouth, which John McCain won by nine percent, although Obama nonetheless carriedDelaware, theDistrict of Columbia,Maryland,North Carolina,Florida, andVirginia (the South as defined by the USCensus Bureau). McCain won every state in the Deep South, where white voters had generally supported Republican candidates by increasingly large margins in the previous few decades.[193] Obama won all of the 2004 swing states (states that either Kerry or Bush won by less than 5%) by a margin of 8.5 percent or more except for Ohio, which he carried by 4.5 percent.
Obama also defied political bellwethers, becoming the first person to win the presidency while losingMissouri since1956 and while losingKentucky andTennessee since1960. He was the first Democrat to ever win the presidency without carrying Missouri, to win without carryingArkansas since that state joined the Union in 1836, and the first to win withoutWest Virginia since1916 (and, because one West Virginia elector had voted Democratic in 1916, Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without any of the state's electors since its founding in 1863).Indiana andVirginia voted for the Democratic nominee for the first time since1964, as did a solitary electoral vote fromNebraska's 2nd congressional district. Indiana would return to being a reliably red state in subsequent elections; Virginia, however, has been won by Democrats in every presidential election since and would grow increasingly Democratic at the state level.North Carolina, which Obama was the first Democrat to carry since1976, would return to the Republican column in the following elections, though only by narrow margins each time.
Obama was also relatively competitive in some traditionally Republican states he lost, notablyMontana, which he lost by under 3%, andGeorgia, which he lost by just 5%. He is also the only 21st-century Democrat to loseNorth Dakota andSouth Dakota by just single digits. McCain remains the last presidential candidate to receive fewer than 200 electoral votes.
This was the first presidential election in whichNebraska split its electoral votes between two candidates. Together withMaine, which would not split its votes until2016, Nebraska is one of two states that allow a split in electoral votes withoutfaithless electors: a candidate receives one electoral vote for each congressional district won (Nebraska has three, Maine two), while the statewide winner receives an additional two electoral votes. Obama won the electoral vote from Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, largely comprising the city ofOmaha. Nebraska's other four electoral votes went to John McCain. This would not happen again until2020.
As of 2024[update], this election is the last time that Indiana or North Carolina voted Democratic, and is also the most recent election where one of the nominees has since died. Until2024 this was also the most recent election in which any of the major presidential nominees had any military experience.[194]
This election exhibited the continuation of some of the polarization trends evident in the2000 and 2004 elections.[195] McCain won whites 55–43 percent, while Obama won blacks 95–4 percent,[196] Hispanics 67–31 percent, and Asians 62–35 percent. Voters aged 18–29 voted for Obama by 66–32 percent while elderly voters backed McCain 53–45 percent.[197] The 25-year age gap between McCain and Obama was the widest in U.S. presidential election history among the top two candidates.[198]
^Shirley Chisholm had previously won a contest in New Jersey in 1972 that was a no-delegate-awarding, presidential preference ballot in which the major candidates were not listed; the actual delegate selection vote went toGeorge McGovern.[3][4]
^Percentage point difference in margin from the2004 election
^Baker, Peter; Abramowitz last3 A Mazhintue, Michael (February 9, 2008)."History and Necessity Unite Bush, McCain".Washingtonpost.com.Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2009.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
^"The Color of News". Project for Excellence in Journalism. October 29, 2008.Archived from the original on September 26, 2013. RetrievedNovember 2, 2008.
^"Expected High Voter Turnout Has Government Officials, Watchdog Groups on Alert". Fox News. November 3, 2008.Archived from the original on November 6, 2008. RetrievedNovember 7, 2008."The main thing that we all know is that there's going to be a huge turnout. There are going to be long lines, and any problems that occur will exacerbate because of those lines," said Robert M. Brandon, president of the Fair Elections Legal Network.
^ab"Much-hyped Turnout Record Fails to Materialize"(PDF) (Press release). Center for the Study of the American Electorate, American University. November 6, 2008.Archived(PDF) from the original on March 23, 2021. RetrievedNovember 20, 2008.
Balz, Dan, andHaynes Johnson.The Battle for America 2008: The Story of an Extraordinary Election (2009), by leading reporters with inside information
Crotty, William. "Policy and Politics: The Bush Administration and the 2008 Presidential Election,"Polity, July 2009, Vol. 41 Issue 3, pp 282–311onlineArchived April 4, 2016, at theWayback Machine
Curtis, Mark.Age of Obama: A Reporter's Journey With Clinton, McCain and Obama in the Making of the President in 2008 (2009)
Gidlow, Liette.Obama, Clinton, Palin: Making History in Election 2008 (2012)
Corwin E. Smidt and others.The Disappearing God Gap? Religion in the 2008 Presidential Election (Oxford University Press; 2010) 278 pages. Finds that the gap between church-attending traditionalists and other voters is not closing, as has been claimed, but is changing in significant ways; draws on survey data from voters who were interviewed in the spring of 2008 and then again after the election.
Jessee, Stephen A. "Voter Ideology and Candidate Positioning in the 2008 Presidential Election,"American Politics Research, March 2010, Vol. 38 Issue 2, pp 195–210
Kenski, Kate, Bruce W. Hardy, andKathleen Hall Jamieson.The Obama Victory: How Media, Money, and Message Shaped the 2008 Election (Oxford University Press; 2010) 378 pages. Draws on interviews with key campaign advisors as well as the National Annenberg Election Survey.excerpt and text searchArchived August 28, 2019, at theWayback Machine
Sabato, Larry.The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama Won the White House (2009)
Stempel III, Guido H. and Thomas K. Hargrove, eds.The 21st-Century Voter: Who Votes, How They Vote, and Why They Vote (2 vol. 2015).
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![Results by county,[c] shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.](/mt/?noimg=&dark=on&url=http%3a%2f%2fen.wikipedia.org%2fwiki%2fFile%3a2008_United_States_presidential_election_results_map_by_county.svg)
![Results by county flips from 2004 to the 2008 presidential election[c]](/mt/?noimg=&dark=on&url=http%3a%2f%2fen.wikipedia.org%2fwiki%2fFile%3a2008_Presidential_Election_by_County_Flips.svg)
![Change in vote margins at the county level from the 2004 election to the 2008 election.[c] Obama made dramatic gains in every region of the country except for Arizona (McCain's home state), Alaska (Palin's home state), Appalachia, and the inner South, where McCain improved over Bush.](/mt/?noimg=&dark=on&url=http%3a%2f%2fen.wikipedia.org%2fwiki%2fFile%3aPresidential_Elections_2004-2008_Swing_in_County_Margins.svg)
![Cartogram of popular vote with each county rescaled in proportion to its population. Deeper blue represents a Democratic majority; brighter red represents a Republican majority.[185]](/mt/?noimg=&dark=on&url=http%3a%2f%2fen.wikipedia.org%2fwiki%2fFile%3a2008CartogramElection.jpg)
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