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2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho

← 2006
November 4, 2008
2010 →

All 2 Idaho seats to theUnited States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Last election20
Seats won11
Seat changeDecrease 1Increase 1
Popular vote377,464259,776
Percentage59.23%40.77%
SwingIncrease 3.51%Increase 0.94%

District results
County results

Republican

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  >90%

Democratic

  50–60%
  60–70%

Elections in Idaho
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The2008 congressional elections in Idaho were held on November 4, 2008 to determine who would represent thestate ofIdaho in theUnited States House of Representatives, coinciding with thepresidential andsenatorial elections. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; those elected were to serve in the111th Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011.

Idaho has two seats in the House, apportioned according to the2000 United States census. Representatives are elected for two-year terms. Its2007–09 congressional delegation consisted of two Republicans. In the 2008 elections, District 1 was won by DemocratWalt Minnick, so Idaho's delegation to the 111th Congress consisted of one Republican and one Democrat. CQ Politics had forecasted District 1 to be at some risk for the incumbent party. As of 2024[update], this was the only time since 1992 that a Democrat was elected to congress from Idaho.Primary elections were held May 27, 2008.[1]

Overview

[edit]
United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho, 2008
PartyVotesPercentageSeats beforeSeats after+/–
Republican377,46459.23%21-1
Democratic259,77640.77%01+1
Valid votes--%
Invalid or blank votes--%
Totals637,240100.00%22
Voter turnout-%

Match-up summary

[edit]
DistrictIncumbent2008 statusDemocraticRepublicanOther party
1Bill SaliLost Re-electionWalt MinnickBill Sali
2Mike SimpsonRe-electionDebbie HolmesMike Simpson

District 1

[edit]
See also:Idaho's 1st congressional district
2008 Idaho's 1st congressional district election

← 2006
November 4, 2008
2010 →
 
NomineeWalt MinnickBill Sali
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote175,898171,687
Percentage50.6%49.4%

County results
Precinct results
County results
Minnick:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Sali:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     50%

U.S. Representative before election

Bill Sali
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Walt Minnick
Democratic

This district includes most of theBoise metropolitan area and northern Idaho, including all of theIdaho Panhandle. Major cities in the district includeNampa,Meridian,Coeur d'Alene, andLewiston as well as precincts in westernBoise. Usually a Republican stronghold, in 2006Bill Sali (campaign website) won an open seat race with only 50 percent of the vote overLarry Grant's 45 percent.

In 2008 Sali facedWalt Minnick (campaign website), a businessman and former White House staffer who had been the unsuccessful Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996. Grant announced his intention to run for the seat again, but withdrew from the race before the primary and endorsed Minnick instead. Sali defeated Iraq war veteran Matt Salisbury with 60 percent of the vote in the May 27 Republican primary. Minnick won the Democratic nomination unopposed.[1]

Initially, Sali was considered safe due to the district's heavily Republican nature (CPVI R+19), and the race was initially rated 'Safe Republican' by the non-partisanCook Political Report. However, it soon became increasingly competitive. According toThe Wall Street Journal, a combination of poor fund raising (Sali trailed Minnick by nearly $200,000 according to reports in May) and Sali's combative reputation gave Minnick a chance to upset Sali despite the district's conservative majority. Many moderates who would have normally leaned Republican were reportedly concerned by Sali's far-right social views in a state where conservative voters have historically cared more aboutsmall government issues than social issues.[2]

As a result, the Cook Political Report adjusted its rating for the race throughout the campaign, moving it to 'Likely Republican' on July 3, 'Leans Republican' on September 18, and 'Republican Toss Up' on October 23.[3][4][5] CQ Politics forecasted the race as 'Republican Favored', but changed its rating to 'No Clear Favorite' late in the campaign. The Rothenberg Report rated it as 'Lean Republican'.[6]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[7]Lean D(flip)November 6, 2008
Rothenberg[8]Tilt D(flip)November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]Lean D(flip)November 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics[10]TossupNovember 7, 2008
CQ Politics[11]TossupNovember 6, 2008

Results

[edit]

Minnick defeated Sali by just 4,211 votes. Minnick was the first Democrat to be elected to Congress from Idaho sinceLarry LaRocco was defeated for reelection to this seat in 1994; he was only the second Democrat to hold the seat since the 1960s.[12] According toCPVI, as calculated using the 2004 and 2008 presidential election results, Idaho's first district was the third most Republican-leaning district in the country to be represented by a Democrat in the 111th Congress.

Idaho's 1st congressional district election, 2008[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticWalt Minnick175,89850.6
RepublicanBill Sali (incumbent)171,68749.4
Total votes347,585100.00
Democraticgain fromRepublican

District 2

[edit]
2008 Idaho's 2nd congressional district election

← 2006
2010 →
 
NomineeMike SimpsonDebbie Holmes
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote205,77783,878
Percentage71.0%29.0%

County results
Precinct results
Simpson:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90–100%
Martinez     50–60%     60–70%
Tie:     50%

U.S. Representatives before election

Mike Simpson
Republican

Elected U.S. Representatives

Mike Simpson
Republican

See also:Idaho's 2nd congressional district

This district includes theEastern Idaho andMagic Valley regions of Idaho, including the cities ofPocatello,Idaho Falls andTwin Falls, as well as parts ofBoise on its western edge. The seat was held by RepublicanMike Simpson, who was first elected in 1998.

Simpson (campaign website) ran for reelection against Democratic nomineeDeborah Holmes (campaign website), a first-time candidate for public office. Both Simpson and Holmes decisively won their respective primaries.[1] Although parts of the district had trended Democratic in recent years, includingBlaine County,Teton County and the Boise precincts located in the district, a strongMormon voting bloc kept the district in Republican hands. CQ Politics forecast the race as 'Safe Republican'.

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[7]Safe RNovember 6, 2008
Rothenberg[8]Safe RNovember 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]Safe RNovember 6, 2008
Real Clear Politics[10]Safe RNovember 7, 2008
CQ Politics[11]Safe RNovember 6, 2008

Results

[edit]

Mike Simpson easily won reelection over Deborah Holmes, receiving 71 percent of the vote.

Idaho's 2nd congressional district election, 2008[13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMike Simpson (incumbent)205,77771.0
DemocraticDeborah Holmes83,87829.0
Total votes289,655100.00
Republicanhold

References

[edit]
  1. ^abc"May 27, 2008 Primary Election Results".Idaho Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original on April 16, 2009. RetrievedMarch 7, 2009.
  2. ^Scheck, Justin (July 15, 2008). "Idaho Is No Longer a Lock for Republicans".The Wall Street Journal. p. A.3.
  3. ^"2008 Competitive Race Chart - July 3, 2008".Cook Political Report. July 3, 2008. Archived fromthe original on February 20, 2009. RetrievedMarch 7, 2009.
  4. ^"2008 Competitive Race Chart - September 18, 2008". Cook Political Report. September 18, 2008. Archived fromthe original on November 27, 2008. RetrievedMarch 7, 2009.
  5. ^"2008 Competitive Race Chart - October 23, 2008". Cook Political Report. October 23, 2008. Archived fromthe original on April 16, 2009. RetrievedMarch 7, 2009.
  6. ^2008 House RatingsRothenberg Report, September 30, 2008
  7. ^ab"2008 Competitive House Race Chart".House: Race Ratings.The Cook Political Report. November 6, 2006. Archived fromthe original on November 6, 2008. RetrievedNovember 20, 2023.
  8. ^ab"2008 House Ratings".House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. November 2, 2006. Archived fromthe original on November 6, 2008. RetrievedNovember 20, 2023.
  9. ^ab"2008 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2008. Archived fromthe original on November 6, 2008. RetrievedNovember 20, 2023.
  10. ^ab"Battle for the House of Representatives".realclearpolitics.com. Real Clear Politics. November 7, 2008. Archived fromthe original on December 17, 2008. RetrievedDecember 9, 2023.
  11. ^ab"Race Ratings Chart: House".cqpolitics.com. Congressional Quarterly Inc. Archived fromthe original on November 6, 2008. RetrievedNovember 20, 2023.
  12. ^"IDAHO: McCain".The New York Times. November 6, 2008. p. 12. RetrievedMarch 7, 2009.
  13. ^ab"November 4, 2008 General Election Results". Idaho Secretary of State. RetrievedMarch 7, 2009.

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