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Glasgow East parliamentary seat | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 42.25% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The2008 Glasgow East by-election was aby-election for the UKParliamentary constituency ofGlasgow East which was held on 24 July 2008. The election was triggered when, on 30 June 2008, the sitting MPDavid Marshall stood down due to ill health.
The by-election was won byJohn Mason, candidate of theScottish National Party, who defeated theLabour candidateMargaret Curran. Curran subsequently regained the seat for Labour at the2010 general election.
The election was significant as it was the second safe Labour seat to be contested, and to be lost, since a downturn in political fortunes for theLabour Party and incumbentUK Labour Government under thePremiership ofGordon Brown, and was also held in the wake of the resignation of theLeader of the Labour Party in the Scottish Parliament,Wendy Alexander. The seat was the third-safest Labour seat in Scotland, and their 26th safest seat in the UK.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | John Mason | 11,277 | 43.1 | +26.1 | |
| Labour | Margaret Curran | 10,912 | 41.7 | −19.0 | |
| Conservative | Davena Rankin | 1,639 | 6.3 | −0.6 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Ian Robertson | 915 | 3.5 | −8.3 | |
| Scottish Socialist | Frances Curran | 555 | 2.1 | −1.4 | |
| Solidarity | Tricia McLeish | 512 | 2.0 | New | |
| Green | Eileen Duke | 232 | 0.9 | New | |
| Independent | Chris Creighton | 67 | 0.3 | New | |
| Freedom-4-Choice | Hamish Howitt | 65 | 0.2 | New | |
| Majority | 365 | 1.4 | N/A | ||
| Turnout | 26,219 | 42.25 | −5.95 | ||
| SNPgain fromLabour | Swing | +22.5 | |||
The Glasgow East constituency was created for the2005 general election. Its area came from the majority of theGlasgow Baillieston constituency, with the remainder formed from theGlasgow Shettleston constituency. It is one of the most deprived constituencies in the UK, with 30% of the working-age population on unemployment or incapacity benefit and nearly 40% of children growing up in homes where there is no adult in paid employment.[2]
At the 2005 general election, the new Glasgow East seat wasLabour's 26thsafest seat in terms of percentage majority, and within Scotland, the seat at which it received its second-highest share of the vote.[3] At the 2005 general election, Labour defeated theScottish National Party by a majority of 13,507 votes, who beat theLiberal Democrats to third place by 1,603 votes.
Prior to his 2005 win at Glasgow East, Marshall had continually held the predecessor seat ofGlasgow Shettleston since1979. Shettleston had been held continuously by previous Labour Party members since anIndependent Labour Party member defected to Labour in 1947. TheGlasgow Baillieston constituency, and its predecessor seatGlasgow Provan, had always returned Labour MPs since its creation in 1955.
At the2007 Scottish parliamentary election, Labour lost power to the SNP, who formed aminority government. At this election, the SNP Deputy First MinisterNicola Sturgeon won the neighbouringGlasgow Govan Scottish Parliament constituency with a swing from Labour of 10.7%, while all other Glasgow constituencies remained in Labour control.
On 28 June 2008, Marshall informed local party leaders that he would be stepping down on medical advice, after 10 weeks ofsick leave from the House of Commons.[4] On 30 June 2008 Marshall accepted the post ofSteward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead,[5] a device allowing him in effect toresign as an MP, triggering the by-election[6]
The election gained attention throughout the UK due to worsening results for Labour during 2008. TheDaily Record had asserted that if Labour lost the by-election, further pressure would be heaped onGordon Brown.[4]
The by-election followed a run of poor results since May, in theCrewe and Nantwich andHenley by-elections in England,English and Welsh local elections and losing theLondon mayoralty. By the end of May, Labour had registered its worst ever independent opinion poll result since records began in 1943, of 23%.[7] This was also the first by-election since Labour declined to field a candidate in theHaltemprice and Howden by-election in England 14 days previously, fought over a recentcontroversial government anti-terrorism bill. The by-election also came within days of the controversial resignation of the Scottish Labour leaderWendy Alexander, with voting for a replacement not taking place before polling.[8][9]
Turnout is usually lower in by-elections; at the previous general election turnout was 48% but was down just under 6% at 42.25%. Voter share was likely to have been distributed differently, with nine candidates standing for this election, compared to five in 2005. Turnout was higher than expected, despite the election being held during the school holidays, and during a traditional Glasgow holiday period.
In a Scotland-wide opinion poll of Westminster voting intentions, released on 11 July, the SNP was on 33%, with Labour on 29%, Conservatives on 20% Lib Dem on 14%.[10]
However, in an opinion poll conducted solely within the Glasgow East constituency, released on 12 July, Labour led on 47%, SNP on 33%, Liberal Democrats on 9% and the Conservatives on 7%.[11]
When nominations closed, there were nine candidates.
The SNP chose John Mason,[12] a longtime resident of the constituency, and leader of the opposition onGlasgow City Council.
The Labour Party had some difficulty finding a candidate. The most likely initial choice, local councillor George Ryan, failed to attend a selection meeting.[13] The position was then offered toSteven Purcell, the Labour leader of Glasgow council, thenLesley Quinn andFrank McAveety, the party's general secretary and the MSP for Glasgow Shettleston respectively, but all turned it down.[14] The position was eventually accepted by fifth-choice candidateMargaret Curran,MSP forGlasgow Baillieston, on 7 July.[15]
TheGreen Party selected Eileen Duke, a retired GP and co-convenor of the party's local branch, on 5 July.[16] TheScottish Socialist Party stoodFrances Curran, a former MSP who originally came from the east end of Glasgow.Solidarity stood Tricia McLeish, a trade union activist who lived in the constituency.
Howitt stood under the label "Freedom-4-Choice", a minor party of his own creation, having stood under the same title in theHaltemprice and Howden by-election.[17]
Leaked diplomatic cables later disclosed that senior US diplomats perceivedGordon Brown to be "finished" following the result.[18]
Curran would subsequently defeat Mason and regain the seat for Labour in the2010 general election with a majority of almost 12,000,[19][20] only to be defeated herself by the SNP in 2015.
The seat was created at the 2005 election.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | David Marshall | 18,775 | 60.7 | −3.0 | |
| SNP | Lachlan McNeill | 5,268 | 17.0 | −0.1 | |
| Liberal Democrats | David Jackson | 3,665 | 11.8 | +6.0 | |
| Conservative | Carl Thomson | 2,135 | 6.9 | +0.8 | |
| Scottish Socialist | George Savage | 1,096 | 3.5 | −3.4 | |
| Majority | 13,507 | 43.7 | −2.9 | ||
| Turnout | 30,939 | 48.2 | |||
| Labourwin (new seat) | |||||
